Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 182307

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
606 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

A weak but dry cool front will push south across the local area
tonight. High pressure will build back over the region Sunday
and Monday but a cold front will cross the region on Tuesday.
Another front will sag south near Lake Erie early Thursday
before pushing north as a warm front Friday.


SW winds will continue to diminish this evening then start to turn
to the west and WNW toward the end of the night as a weak cold front
drifts se into the cwa. Patchy clouds from the southern system and
from the front dropping into the area should combine to result in
mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions for most locations on
average. Lows should be able to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s
for much of the area.


Unfortunately a light northwest breeze behind the weak cool
front...which is a flow off of a cold lake...will keep
temperatures in check Sunday across northeast OH/nw PA. Tended
to go toward the cooler guidance as winds will already be
westerly Sunday morning across Ashtabula and Erie PA. Will have
a gradient in temperature from upper 40s lakeshore to near 60

The surface high will be across eastern Ohio Monday morning and
as it shifts east winds will come around to the south
again...except near the lakeshore which will only be able to
come around to the east-northeast. Temps will still be running
well above normal with inland locations again nearing/exceeding

The next real weather maker arrives Tuesday. While there is some
timing differences amongst the models...vast majority place
showers across the area during the day on Tuesday. Have a
broader area of likely precip chances. Overall nature will
likely be scattered/broken area of showers.


The ridge aloft will hold firm through the end of the work
week. Any cooler, pacific air from the Tuesday cool front will
give way to warming again on Wednesday as the deep southwest flow
continues. Highs will be in the 60s again except for perhaps some
50s across extreme northeast OH and northwest PA.

Model differences begin to show up by Thursday. The ECMWF has a
relatively strong surface low rippling along a cold front crossing
the northern Great Lakes while the GFS has no low to speak of.
The Canadian model also has the low. This impacts the strength of
the southwest wind on Lake Erie on Thursday and ultimately may push
the back door front farther south than the GFS. The front may drop
across Lake Erie late Thursday and perhaps even sneak into the
forecast area. Given the lack of confidence this far out, will use a
blend of the models at this time. The flow will come back around
from the south on Friday as a panhandle hook begins to track toward
the western Great Lakes. We could squeeze out some showers Thursday
afternoon into Friday given the fast flow aloft and increasing
frontogenesis but will not go as high a pop as some of the guidance
given the ridging aloft.

The panhandle hook looks as if it will be a big storm and
ultimately will send a strong cold front across the area, but not
until Friday night. Friday should turn out to be another warm
day and could be near record highs once again, well in the 60s.

Temperatures will barely drop back to normal behind the cold
front on Saturday. Not sure how many lingering showers there could
be. It will be cold enough aloft that some wet flakes are possible.


.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Between weather systems with low pressure passing well to the
north and a southern branch low tracking across the Gulf Coast
states. Gusty southwest winds will diminish this evening. VFR
conditions will continue with patchy high clouds. Some of the
model guidance develops MVFR clouds later tonight but do not see
enough upward motion or lower level moisture for this to occur.
As the wind lightens late tonight though we may see patchy fog
develop due to the unseasonably high surface dew points, mainly
at inland sites. Winds will become more westerly on Sunday and
a lake breeze wind shift is likely first at KERI and later in
the day at KCLE.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR may develop Tuesday and continue into Tuesday


Brisk southwest breezes on Lake Erie will taper off quickly this
evening as the gradient and mixing weakens. Winds will veer to west
northwest on Sunday behind a weak cool front. Winds will continue to
veer north to northeast late Sunday and Sunday night and east by
Monday. Wind speeds should remain light to moderate. The next weak
cool front is expected on Tuesday. Wind will increase from the
south to southwest ahead of the front and remain rather brisk from
the west behind the front. Winds and waves will likely remain just
below small craft advisory criteria mid week.


Records for 2/18 (as of 3PM)

Toledo 59 in 1961...67 (2017)
Mansfield 60 in 1961...66 (2017)
Cleveland 62 in 1981...69 (2017/334pm)
Akron- Canton 60 in 1981...68 (2017)
Youngstown 59 in 2011...66 (2017)
Erie PA 61 in 1981...69(2017)




NEAR TERM...Oudeman/Adams
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kosarik
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