Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 282310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
710 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND THE
HOURLY SKY COVER IN THE "EVENING" PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH EVEN NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO FINALLY PARTLY CLOUDY. THE CLOUDS THAT ARE LEFT ARE
DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD QUICKLY GO AWAY THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE SHOWING SNOW COVER IN THE KMFD AREA AND ALSO ACROSS
INLAND ERIE COUNTY PA. EXPECT WINDS TO GO NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT SO
IT SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT GIVEN THE CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WHERE THE SNOW IS AND
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
SINGLE DIGITS LOWS AND POSSIBLY SOME NEW RECORDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE MOST OF THE YEAR SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE
MODELS. HAVE SIFTED THROUGH THE SOLUTIONS AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH
USED A COMPROMISE SOLUTION MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE PRECIP FOR LATE SUNDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST
OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. ONLY NW OH SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE QPF
PRIOR TO SUNSET. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TOMORROW BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE EVENING...A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FAST
MOVING CLIPPER ON TUESDAY. PRECIP WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE NAM MOVING THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO
THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UPPER WINDS THIS SEEMS
SOMEWHAT REASONABLE AND WILL REALLY RAMP DOWN PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY. ALL OF THE PRECIP TUESDAY WILL BE RAIN
AS TEMPS FINALLY RETURN TO THE 50S MOST AREAS. HAVE USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS ON WED AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE TO
THE SE. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LATER WED INTO THU. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW EJECTS EAST TO AFFECT OUR AREA.
WILL SLOW DOWN THE RAIN THREAT SOME FOR WED NIGHT. FOR FRI INTO SAT
THE WX SHOULD STAY UNSETTLED AS THE FRONT WITH WAVES MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT STAY OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
GOING. ANOTHER ISSUE FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE
NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA AND WHETHER THERE WILL
BE A CHANGE TO SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS OH THEN WINDS TURN SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND LOOK TO
INCREASE TO ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE SUN NIGHT TO CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO WEST BY MON
THEN DIMINISH SOME FOR MON EVE AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE. A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD RAPIDLY DROP ESE ACROSS THE LAKE TUE TO
PRODUCE CHANGEABLE WINDS OF MAINLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON WED FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THEN THE
RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE
WARMER AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLDER LAKE SHOULD HELP TO HOLD WINDS TO
10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS






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