Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
951 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER MCV MOVING ACROSS INDIANA. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SINCE GROUND IS SO WET ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL BE WATCHING
CLOSELY AND MAY ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF THE
INTENSITY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING.

OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN OVER
WISCONSIN WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. A
DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE WITH WEAK
PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE NEAR 800MB WITH A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. STILL
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE
LARGER SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CAPE WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE SO JUST EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BUT
SHOULD BE MOVING ENOUGH THAT THREAT FOR NEW FLOODING IS MINIMAL.
DRIER AIR STARTS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH STORMS PUSHING EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO START THE DAY...BUT EXPECT SOME PEAKS OF SUN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...LOW 70S IN NW
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS NW OHIO. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP
IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OVER LAKE ERIE...OR PUSHING INTO NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE PRETTY
LOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND REMOVED THE
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN. ONE LAST PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THIS FEATURE. LEFT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BUT THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGH
EXPANDING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TO END THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 70S TO END THE WEEK ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD A CHANGE WHERE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME.L SOME SMALL PERTURBATIONS WILL SLIP THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW BUT NO DEEP TROUGHINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHAPING
UP TO HEAD BACK INTO THE TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST AND LARGE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.

IN THE MEAN TIME...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION OVER
THE WEEKEND AND FOURTH OF JULY CELEBRATIONS WILL NOT BE SPOILED BY
RAIN. THE TREND IS PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH TIME SO WILL BE DROPPING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
SATURDAY. A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
COULD BRING SOME MORE MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL GO
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW SUNDAY AND UP POPS TO
A CHANCE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL TAKE PLACE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
SHAPE. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN SOME
PLACES. SOME OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
THIS MORNING AND THEN THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MORE IFR AND MVFR
WEATHER TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY FROM AROUND 220 DEGREES AT AROUND 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE MAY GET RILED UP A BIT STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS BY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH FOR THURSDAY
BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST BURST OF WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THEN.  GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY


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