Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 220757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
357 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

A stalled front across central Ohio will move north through the
area as a warm front today. Low pressure over the western lakes
will move northeast into Canada by Friday, bringing a cold
front east across the region. A broad trough of low pressure
will then remain over the area through the weekend. High
pressure at the surface will begin to move in from the west
Monday night into Tuesday.


A stationary front is located across central Ohio early this
morning. This will lift north through the area later this
morning into early this afternoon as a warm front. The influence
of an upper-level ridge and drier air aloft should keep most
everyone dry through the morning and early afternoon hours.

As the ridge begins to shift off to the east later this
afternoon, the pathway to the Gulf of Mexico will open and
ample moisture will stream in from the southwest - thanks to
Tropical Storm Cindy. This will mean a chance for mid-to-late
afternoon thunderstorm development across far northeast Ohio
into northwest Pennsylvania as the warm front may get hung up in
this area. Forecast shear and thermodynamic profiles are
conducive for strong to perhaps severe storms if any develop in
this area. The main threats would be large hail and strong

Temperatures this afternoon should warm up nicely with highs
reaching the middle 80s in northwest Pennsylvania and the upper
80s to lower 90s elsewhere.


A cold front will approach from the west Thursday night. Showers
and storms will become widespread out ahead of this front by
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With tropical moisture
in the area, a wet day is expected Friday for everyone. A few
storms may have the potential to become strong to perhaps
severe, however, there remains a lot of uncertainty. The biggest
limiting factor will be the expansive cloud cover and limited
instability. Another concern is the flooding threat. There is
currently too much uncertainty in where the heaviest rainfall
will occur, but there is potential for training thunderstorms
that could lead to flooding.

Any remaining precipitation should be east of the area by
Saturday morning. Saturday should be mostly dry, but can`t
entirely rule out the chance of a spotty afternoon shower across
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Dry conditions should
then be the rule for everyone Saturday night into Sunday

There will be a chance for showers or storms across the
area Sunday as a shortwave trough embedded within the larger
parent trough moves in from the northwest. The best chances will
be across the northern half of the area.

Friday will see highs near to slightly above seasonal levels.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday
with highs dipping back into the middle 70s.


Upper level trough will be overhead to start the long term on Monday
with below normal temperatures. Model are showing some discrepancies
with the amount of moisture which will effect coverage of showers.
Would expect to see at least some diurnally driven showers with an
increase in cloud cover across the eastern half of the area but will
have to refine details with time. Lowered highs a degree or two on
Monday with 850mb temperatures near 6C but these will partially
depend on the amount of cloud cover. Held onto showers near and
downwind of Lake Erie Monday night with some instability expected to
be focused over the lake. Degree of showers will be driven by the
placement of the trough at that point but lake enhanced showers
appear possible, especially if the ECMWF is right which keeps the
trough in the region longer.

Trough shifts east during the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame
followed by a ridge building aloft. Temperatures will rebound
through mid-week with conditions drying out.


.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Warm front extends from Iowa to just north of Dayton. A few
showers have developed north of the warm front and may briefly impact
MFD through 08Z. Otherwise expect scattered showers to increase
along the warm front in NW Ohio after 10Z and move east across
northern portions of the area. Just went VCSH for now as
coverage is uncertain. A few thunderstorms could also develop
but not expecting enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs for

After the showers move through, VFR conditions expected through
at least 00Z with breezy southwest winds gusting to 20 knots
most sites this afternoon. Low level moisture increases
overnight with ceilings lowering and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly after 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with heavy rain possible late Thursday
night into Friday as cold front moves across the area fed by
moisture from the remnants of Cindy.


A warm front will lift north across Lake Erie today with southwest
winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots on the lake tonight. Given the
increasingly stable conditions and offshore flow, not expecting to
need a Small Craft Advisory. A cold front will move east across the
Lake Friday evening. There is a brief window of time late Friday
afternoon/Friday evening where we will need to be concerned with
Small Craft Advisory conditions as the flow shifts onshore but
should only be 6 hours or less as winds drop off quickly behind the
front Friday night.

A series of cold fronts will move across the lake over the weekend.
Better chances for a Small Craft Advisory will be on Saturday when
westerly winds increase to 15-20 knots and waves build to 3 to 5
feet east of Cleveland.




NEAR TERM...Mottice
SHORT TERM...Mottice
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