Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 271913
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
313 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE GOTTEN STEAMY NEAR
LAKE ERIE BUT INLAND AREAS REMAIN FAIRLY COMFORTABLE. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORM OVERNIGHT AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING ENDS. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF LOWS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPS OF THE YEAR COULD OCCUR IN MANY AREAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60 SO HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
ABOUT PLUS 10 ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE AREA.
THIS MEANS WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT TILL LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE FIRST CONVECTION TO FIRE. THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE CAP WILL ALSO BE WEAKER
IN THAT AREA. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY BE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT IF THE SUN DOES BREAK
OUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE
PRECIP WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. FORTUNATELY OVER THE PERIOD OF THE THE
LONG TERM ONLY TWO SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE AREA. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...CROSSING NRN OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIKELY WILL
NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE...HIGHS 80-85.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE OF
MVFR FOG EXISTS AT MFD...CAK...YNG...AND TOL RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE BUT
LEFT OFF MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. ANY FOG CHANCE
HINGES ON THE MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THE WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY PICK UP
ENOUGH ON THE EAST END TO GET NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET. LIGHTER WINDS FOR
FRIDAY. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. RIGHT NOW WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN


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