Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 160547
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
147 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will move off to the east by Thursday. A
weak cold front will push east through the region Thursday night and
Friday then high pressure will rebuild over the area for the weekend
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Radar showing few sprinkles along the front pushing well south
of the area. Some pockets of clouds still present over the area
at this time. Expecting some fog to develop across the area
overnight and should be patchy. Otherwise, a quiet night.
Temperatures will continue to follow their diurnal fall through
the rest of the evening and early morning hours.

Previous discussion...
A trough drifting se across the area early tonight may produce
widely sct shra/tsra for a while this evening, mainly for the west
and inland east. Most places should see partly cloudy skies tonight
with patchy inland fog forming toward daybreak. Lows will mostly be
in the low to mid 60s.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate Wed into Wed
night so only expect isolated late aftn/evening shra or tsra Wed
aftn and evening. A better chc by the end of Wed night in the west
should develop as a warm front lifts into that area to provide a
focus for convection.

Highs Wed should be close to today`s highs and lows Wed
night will be a little warmer as south winds develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave energy moving out of the trough will lift across the area
Thursday morning bringing considerable moisture advection with it.
PW values increase to near 2 inches across the area in advance of
low pressure tracking from the midwest across the Upper Great Lakes.
Showers are expected to expand rapidly and move northeast across the
area Thursday morning as the moisture rich air arrives. Coverage of
thunderstorms is less certain during the early part of the day with
warm air in the mid levels. Some areas may experience a break in
showers mid-day into the afternoon before better forcing arrives
from the west late in the day ahead of the front. Temperatures on
Thursday will be tricky with any breaks in the clouds leading to a
rapid increase in heating and instability during the afternoon. The
front has slowed down some and the second round of rain is expected
to linger into the evening so will carry likely pops for all areas
Thursday evening, decreasing from the west overnight. The Storm
Prediction Center has placed the area in a marginal threat for
severe weather and there is also a concern for heavy rain given the
moist airmass. Went a little above guidance for min temps Thursday
night given the clouds and moisture. Best chances for showers on
Friday will be in the east ahead of the upper trough. Temperatures
will only drop back to near or slightly below normal behind the
front.

High pressure builds northeast up the Ohio Valley Friday night
before shifting east of the area on Saturday. Another shortwave
trough approaches from the west on Saturday which could trigger a
few more showers or thunderstorms in NW Ohio on Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level trough still to cross the region Saturday night into
early Sunday but the amount of moisture that is available to lift
remains in question. Best chances will be Saturday evening as we use
up the afternoon instability. The trough should be east of the
region by Sunday afternoon with drier air spilling across the
region. Cant rule out a lingering shower across NW PA Sunday morning
but chances seem too low to mention at this time. High pressure will
drift across the area Sunday night and be located over PA by Monday
night. This will allow some low level moisture to begin its return
to the area ahead of the next area of low pressure. If the model
timing remains consistent it would bring a few showers/thunderstorms
into the area after midnight Monday night with better chances into
Tuesday.

Temperatures through the long term should be near to slightly
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High pressure will build across the Great Lakes today as a weak
cold front settles south near the Ohio River. Lighter winds this
morning along with high surface dewpoints may lead to the
development of MVFR BR. Enough mid/high clouds through parts of
the overnight precludes IFR mention at most sites, with the
exception of a TEMPO IFR visibility at KCAK, and will monitor
trends and amend as necessary for possible IFR. Scattered cu
expected during the day, with perhaps a stray TSRA near KFDY
and KMFD late afternoon/evening, but no TSRA mention with this
TAF issuance. Winds will generally be light through the day,
with a bit of a ENE-N lake breeze affecting KERI/KTOL/KCLE with
some stronger 6-9 kt winds. Winds will veer around to the east
southeast by the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...Areas of Non-VFR possible Thursday through Thursday
night with scattered storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak frontal boundary moving across the lake late this afternoon
will stall across southern Ohio overnight. Northeast winds near 10
knots will develop overnight and continue into Wednesday morning.
Winds will become more easterly during the day on Wednesday as high
pressure builds north of the lake. Waves on the western half of the
lake could build to near 2 feet.

A warm front will lift north across the lake late Wednesday night
into Thursday ahead of low pressure tracking from the midwest across
the upper lakes. This system will pull a cold front across the lake
early Friday with southwest winds shifting to the west and
increasing to 10 to 20 knots. Conditions will be near Small Craft
Advisory for several hours Friday afternoon and evening. Conditions
will improve Saturday as high pressure builds across the Ohio
Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...KEC



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