Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 270602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND/OR STRATUS. COLD FRONT JUST MAKING ITS WAY INTO
TOLEDO AS OF MIDNIGHT. COULD STILL GET SOME SHOWERS TO FILL BACK
IN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT...REDUCED POPS
THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONT
WILL NOT BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z.  THE EXTENT
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUESTIONABLE ON WEDNESDAY.  I THINK THE
MODELS ARE PUSHING THE FRONT A LITTLE FAST AND WE MAY HOLD ON TO
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  I AM LEANING A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM
MODEL ON WED AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT ON THURSDAY.  WHILE MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON A DRY FORECAST...I WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME.  I WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST OHIO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT MAY BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MY HUNCH IS
THAT THE VAST MAJORITY WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT BRINGING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WITH GULF MOISTURE NORTH ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE
TROUGH PULLING OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY. RAISED THE POP TO
"LIKELY" FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT THE AIR MASS MAY
REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WARM SATURDAY... PROBABLY WELL IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS COMING
UP. SOMEWHAT COOLER SUNDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS (BUT STILL
HUMID) THEN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR LABOR DAY...UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY CREEP BACK UP ON TUESDAY AS
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TOL ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO
NEAR BUF. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH AND WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FEET. MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME FOG AHEAD OF IT.
THE DEW POINTS OVER THE WATER ARE CLOSE TO THE AIR
TEMPERATURE...SO THIS SHOULD HELP WITH THE STRATUS FORMATION. THE
AIRMASS SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
PERHAPS MOST LIKELY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. OTHERWISE
SOME MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WEAKENING
MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ERIE
FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE
LAKE LATER TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE
THE LAKE RATHER CHOPPY...MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
GRADIENT AND WIND FIELDS ARE NOT STRONG THOUGH AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH WIND BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND NOT ENOUGH WIND/WAVES FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. THE LIGHT FLOW WILL VEER MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY THEN THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BACK BY THE
WEEKEND AND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE COULD GET CHOPPY BUT
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KEC/GARNET/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK






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