Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 280154
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
954 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOMORROW AND MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.  CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...UPDATED POPS OVERNIGHT BUT MORE SO ON THURSDAY TO REFLECT
HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO GET INTO THE AREA AND TO REFLECT
BETTER AGREEMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

ORIGINAL...MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR KANSAS CITY...INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REACH SWRN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL. BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND A NORTHEAST FLOW...DID NOT GET
TOO AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK WE WILL COME INTO
THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...SO LEFT ALL MENTION OF TSRA OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS ALREADY IN THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST...FORECAST OF
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  WITH THE LOW SO CLOSE
TOMORROW MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA.  WITH THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF TSRA TRAIN OVER SPECIFIC AREA
BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS. LOW ONLY INTO
SW PA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST AND MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.
BEHIND THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.
BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SATURDAY. TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN DOUBT. ECMWF
FASTEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS OVER ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS THE SLOWEST AND KEEPS
EVERYTHING SW OF AREA SATURDAY. FOR FORECAST SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND WENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THEN MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD DO RAIN LIKELY. THIS LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH AGAIN BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH. HENCE...NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE
EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT BUT
NOT INITIALLY EXPECTING IT TO BECOME MUCH OF A VISIBILITY REDUCER.
THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST...SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THE SHOWERS AND LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
MARKED INCREASE IN SPEED AT ERIE TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. NON-VFR RETURNING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LONGER FETCH AND WINDS
INCREASING TO AT LEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
HOISTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING AT 02Z. FOR NOW HAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>148.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN


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