Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291004
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
604 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER FOR 930 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TAKING THE
RAIN WITH IT.  A TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW PA.  SHOULD GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH
THE 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -3C BY THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY A 17C
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...NOW
OVER THE PLAINS STATES...MOVING INTO NW OH TONIGHT AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE LOW.  BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SEE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER. WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE LAKE AND 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -5C...EXPECT PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
SNOWBELT TO PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR NOW STILL SOME DOUBTS WITH
MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL HELP TO
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD AT LEAST GET TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 6 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO AND
NEAR THE LAKESHORE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT CEILINGS WILL DIP TO AROUND 3500 FEET. THESE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO AROUND 14Z THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE ELEVATION AROUND KMFD WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THIS SHOULD ONLY
CAUSES MINOR ISSUES AT KERI. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OFF OF LAKE ERIE ARE UNCERTAIN SO HAVE GONE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NE OH/NW PA. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEXT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AHEAD OF
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT EXPANDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES MAY END UP BEING THE BEST FORECAST ON THE WESTERN BASIN.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ONTO THE LAKE. THIS HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS LAKE ERIE IT
WILL BRING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
AND MAY APPROACH A LOW END GALE. AT THIS POINT 30 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE
A GOOD FORECAST BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN








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