Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 220145
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
945 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic cold front will drop south across the area this
evening and overnight. High pressure will move southeast from
the Canadian Plains across the area Wednesday night. Another
cold front will sag south into the area by Saturday then a
series of lows will move northeast along the front across the
region Saturday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Gusty north winds behind the arctic front have ushered in the
colder air quickly. Temperatures have dropped back into the
upper 30s/near 40 by 9 PM and they will continue to fall into
the mid 20s. Forecast on track. Moisture is very limited/shallow
so while there will certainly be some stratocu off of the lake,
the chances for measurable snow showers is slim. Definitely
could see a few dry flakes around, but for a short time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Arctic airmass will be well entrenched across the region Wednesday
as high pressure slides southeast across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will struggle to reach 30 across NW PA and far NE OH,
but low to mid 30s will be common elsewhere. Any lingering lake
effect snow should end by mid morning. Went several degrees colder
for lows Wednesday night as radiational cooling should dominate
under ridge axis centered over the eastern part of the area.
Forecasting lows in the low to mid teens east/upper teens west,
which is closer to MOS guidance vs. raw guidance. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few favored spots reach single digits. WAA/return
flow sets up Thursday as ridge shifts east. Temps Thursday should
rebound into the 40s for much of the area.

Next appreciable chance for precip comes Thursday night as warm
front lifts north into the region. Showers expected to arrive during
the evening with the best chances across the northern half of the
area after 06Z through about 15Z Friday, especially near Lake Erie.
May be some p-type issues at the initial onset, but leaning towards
column rising entirely above freezing by the time the precip
arrives. Front should push north of most of the area Friday, with
temperatures surging into the 60s for most of northern Ohio and into
the 50s across far NE OH and NW PA. Expecting mainly dry conditions
in the warm sector most of Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Area is finally in the warm sector by daybreak Saturday as the warm
front NE of the forecast area. High temps rise into the lower to mid
60s over most of the area.  But rain is on the way as upper level
low tracks into the area.   Track of the low a little slower and
further north than yesterday.   Both models track low into Michigan
by Sunday evening...then east of the area on Monday.  As for precip
expect precip to make it into NW Oh Saturday afternoon or evening
with rain shower spreading across the entire area Saturday night.
Shower should linger through Sunday and gradually end from the West
Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mid and high clouds will continue to brush the area this
evening, then an arctic cold front will drop across the lower
Great Lakes early tonight. Winds will become north and gusty
especially near Lake Erie. Stratocumulus will develop downwind
of Lake Erie across NE OH and NW PA but it will likely remain
VFR (BKN035) in most areas with a few patches of MVFR
(BKN025-BKN030) ceilings. The lake clouds should dissipate
Wednesday afternoon as the air mass becomes very dry and high
pressure moves in. NNE winds will diminish Wed afternoon and
evening.

OUTLOOK...mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northwest winds on the lake will turn to the North and
increase to 15-25 knots overnight as a cold front pushes south of
the lake. Small Craft Advisory now in effect until Wednesday
afternoon. Winds and waves diminish on Wednesday as large area
of Canadian High Pressure builds SE over the Lake. The high will
track SE across the Great Lakes and move off the SE coast
Thursday night. Winds turn to the south as the high shifts east
of the Lake. Showers with the chance of thunderstorms are
expected this weekend as an upper level low tracks across the
Lower Great Lakes. Exact track of the low still in doubt at this
time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...DJB/Kosarik



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