Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 271021
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
621 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Low pressure over northern Indiana will move east across Lake
Erie today dragging a cold front across the local area. High
Pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley on Friday. Another low
pressure system will cross the Great Lakes over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The back end of the rain had made good eastward progress and have
lowered precip chances west of I-71. Warm air has snuck into the
southern end of the area with 58 at FDY. Have adjusted temps
upward in the south and east today. Highs will occur early today
and then slowly fall the remainder of the day.
Previous...A surface low over northern Indiana will move across
Lake Erie today. This low is responsible for the shower activity
across the area this morning. Coverage hasn`t been as great as
earlier expected with mainly scattered coverage across the area.
The northern tier of counties will continue to see steady rain for
a few more hours but the remainder of the area will see no more to
30 to 40 percent coverage. Will keep scattered wording going
through mid morning with the precip quickly tapering off from west
to east after that. The surface cold front trailing the low will
reach the OH/PA border around 18z which makes the temperature
forecast kind of tricky. Winds continue to be mainly ESE ahead of
the low but will become SE for a time this morning. This should
push temps well up into the 50s over the eastern half of the area.
Will end up with a fairly large temperature gradient across the
area today. Strong cold air advection is expected behind the front
so temps will cool quickly behind the frontal passage. There may
be a few hours between the time the precip associated with the low
moves out of the area and the onset of the lake effect showers to
the east of CLE.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly cold airmass with descend over the area tonight. 850 mb
temps will be coldest over the east end of the area and perhaps
may dip to as low as neg 3. Fortunately forecast sounding show a
lowering inversion overnight. So although there should be
scattered showers downwind of the lake...hopefully rainfall rates
will not get out of hand as they sometimes do this time of year
given the warm lake temperatures. Drier air and the inversion
should win out by daybreak Friday and will end the mention of
showers at that time. High pressure will then build over the
region for Friday with riding lingering into Saturday. It now
looks like precip chances on Saturday will be limited to the NE
end of the area as the main baroclinic zone will remain over that
area. A pretty good push of warm air is expected further south and
west with highs potentially getting into the 70s. The front will
eventually sag south across the area Saturday night and Sunday and
all areas will see precip chances those periods. The best chances
will probably be Sunday morning most areas. High pressure will
begin to reestablish itself on Sunday night and will dry things
out at that time.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridge builds east across the Great Lakes Region on
Monday, shifting to the east coast by Tuesday. Temperatures will be
seasonable on Monday with southwest winds ramping up on Tuesday as
another low pressure system tracks across the midwest and passes
north of the Great Lakes. Increasing warm advection will push
temperatures well above normal into the upper 60s and 70s again on
Tuesday. As the low continues northeast into Quebec, a weakening
cold front will sink south into the area. This frontal boundary is
expected to stall overhead and may eventually act as a focus for
showers later in the week.
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Low pressure centered over northern Indiana will move northeast
across Lake Erie through Thursday afternoon. Showers are filling in
ahead of the low with occasional MVFR visibilities in rain. Ceilings
will lower from VFR ahead of the low to MVFR/IFR near and behind the
low. Easterly winds will eventually shift around to the west or
northwest behind the low and be breezy with gusts to 20+ knots on
Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly downsloping winds will also be
breezy at ERI ahead of the low for the next several hours with gusts
to near 25 knots. Showers will diminish from west to east behind the
low on Thursday with scattered lake effect showers continuing off
the lake at CLE/ERI into Thursday evening.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR should hang on in the snowbelt area thru friday
morning then return again on the weekend.
Easterly winds of 15-20 knots on Lake Erie early this morning will
shift around to the west as low pressure moves across the lake
through early this afternoon. Westerly winds will increase to 20-25
knots for a few hour window behind the low then start to drop off
from west to east overnight. The Small Craft Advisory is in effect
through 4 AM tomorrow but may need to be extended a few hours on the
east end of the lake if waves have not dropped off enough by that
High pressure will build over the lake on Thursday night then shift
east on Friday with a window of better wind and wave conditions.
Another low pressure system will move out of the upper Midwest and
pull a warm front north across the lake on Friday night.
Southwesterly winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots as a low level
jet moves over the lake from Friday night into Saturday morning. The
flow will shift to more westerly late Saturday and a Small Craft
Advisory may be needed on the east end of the lake.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>149.