Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 020432
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1132 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low north of the region will move off to the
northeast Friday Night. High pressure will briefly build in for
Saturday. A warm front will lift north Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Scattered rain showers continue along the lake shore in the Snow
Belt with a few snow showers or areas of rain/snow mix occurring
inland across far northeast OH and northwest PA. Farther south,
towards the Youngstown area, we are seeing some drizzle with
temperatures still in the mid-30s. Have added a mention of drizzle
to the forecast for tonight along the OH/PA border from near
Youngstown north into far southeastern Ashtabula County and
southern Crawford County. Could see some areas of freezing drizzle
late, but no significant impacts are expected.

Original discussion...
Thermal profiles become more supportive for a turn-over to mostly
snow overnight in the higher elevations. However the instability
remains weak with lake induced cape around 200j/kg, and even with
added lift in the hills we don`t anticipate notable snowfall
rates. The warm ground conditions and very small snow ratios
should keep accumulations under 3". Areas along the immediate
lakeshore will likely see snow mix, but with the warmer surface
temperatures from the lake don`t expect more than a coating along
grassy surfaces.

Outside of the snowbelt, the wrap around moisture from the upper
level low will continue mostly cloudy conditions, though some
breaks will develop. Temperatures will drop to around 30 in these
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Friday the trend to slightly cooler temperatures will continue as
some added cold air advection behind the exiting low moves over
the region. Highs will mostly be in the upper 30s away from the
lake where they will be near 40. Lake enhanced showers will be
ongoing on Friday, with the primary P-type snow especially in the
higher terrain early. As the day warms there will be more of a mixed
precip which will prevent much accumulation. Accumulations will
be less than an inch. The best upper level divergence comes
Friday Night, however the moisture is less than what we are seeing
today. This could be the period of best snow coverage and
intensity if it can maximize the lift into the dendritic zone,
though right now models indicate it is not an ideal case. Could
still see 1-3" accumulation NW PA with some wiggle room for more.
The showers of mixed rain and snow will continue into Saturday
before finally coming to an end as high pressure builds in from
the west. The next system will move in late Sunday as a warm front
lifts into the region. The thermal profiles support a mix of
rain/snow which will become all snow by Sunday Night. At this time
snowfall amounts don`t look notable.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Major changes will take place tue thru thu as an upper low over the
upper plains moves east across the northern part of the lakes by
late thursday pulling an arctic cold front across the area.
Initially temps will be a little above normal mon and tue with
chances for shra as a weak s/w trough lifts ne thru the area.

The models differ on the timing of the arctic cold front but by
sometime thu much colder air will be pushing across the area with
rain showers changing to snow showers which could be significant in
the snowbelt by late thu or thu night as temps probably fall into
the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Think sucker hole in the west will gradually fill in overnight
but not confident of timing. Lake effect showers east of CLE will
continue but will move more inland as the 850mb turn to the NW. At
the surface SW flow will turn to the West tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR cigs likely to continue into saturday
with sct rain and snow showers producing variable conditions in
the east part of the snowbelt.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds 20 to 30 knots should prevail for most of the lake into
fri night then diminish late fri night thru sat as high pressure
finally moves east across the lake. Near to marginal low water
conditions may occur on the west end of the lake into friday.

The high should move east of the lakes by tue to allow a low to move
ne near leri. An east wind should develop ahead of the low and
increase to about 10 to 20 knots by daybreak tue turning se as the
low starts to move into the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jamison
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Mottice
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Adams


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