Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 091730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE CONVERGENCE DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE
WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THERE
WILL BE A SCATTERING OF NEW SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT. A MINIMUM IN SHOWERS IS
LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE SHORE FROM AROUND HURON EAST AS
THE WIND BECOMES DIVERGENT OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS IN THE 70S. A FEW
SPOTS COULD GET CLOSE TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  A DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO
HANDLE THE CONVECTIVE TREND WELL FOR THE WEEKEND.  BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGEST SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE
PERIOD KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.  A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
WILL BE PRETTY GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.  THE FRONT
WILL FINALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH FOR GOOD ON MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL TRY FOR DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH AS OF 17Z PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG IT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
ISOLATED...AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH FOR YNG/CAK/CLE/MFD FROM
LOOKING AT CURRENT CUMULUS FIELD. CUMULUS TO FADE AFTER DARK AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE BUT WILL ALSO
BECOME LIGHT. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE THURS CLE AND ERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT IS GONE AND WILL LIKELY NOT NEED ANOTHER
ONE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  A FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
TODAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST.  SPEEDS FOR THE MOST
PART WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE
ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE LAKE AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST.  SPEEDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD BE UNDER 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KUBINA






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