Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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268
FXUS61 KCLE 271745
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
145 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the east coast will move little through the
weekend. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains will
begin to move northeast on Saturday. This low will cross the
northern lakes early Sunday. A warm front from the low will lift
across the local area on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Only precip near the area as of noon was over in northern Indiana
associated with the nose of the H850 theta-e ridge. With increased
CIN over this area we don`t see any lightning. Lucas county could
be briefly affected by these light rain showers. Then for the
afternoon the question will be what is the trigger for showers
and thunderstorms. The instability continues to climb as
temperatures and dew points rise...so if any isolated showers do
develop there is a likely chance it will produce lightning. Have
pulled the pops back even further to the southwest with most of
the north and eastern counties dry this afternoon. Any pop up
shower will be 10% in coverage or less. Temperatures already
reaching 80F by noon in some areas...so feel mid to upper 80s in
the forecast is still good.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight...a warm front will move northeast into indiana by
00z this evening near a Chicago-Dayton line. At the same time the
NAM brings a weak short wave into Eastern Indiana and Western
Ohio. Given the weak wave and the approaching front...will bring
a low chance pop in for early evening far west. On Saturday am a
bit concerned about the upper ridge shifting east while moisture
increases across the area. The MAV guidance remains wetter than
the MET with high chance to likely pops vs chance or less. At this
time feel that we will see more coverage by then however do not
feel likely pops are prudent at this time with a continued lack of
forcing so will just go with chance pops. Late Sunday into Monday
we should see a cold front drop across the area from the
northwest. Would expect convection to be along or ahead of the
front. Will continue with chance pops but may need to raise in the
future with a better picture of timing...moisture and
instability. highs generally in the lower 80s saturday and Sunday.
Highs closer to the upper 70s to Near 80 Monday post cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level ridge will build north for the first half of the long
term forecast period. This will promote high pressure over the Mid-
Atlantic states, which will in turn allow for warm, moist flow into
the region. Temperatures will be cooler than Memorial Day weekend as
a cold front on Monday morning will knock temperatures down for us,
so expecting upper 70s/lower 80s for long term period. The upper
ridge and surface high should keep the area dry for Tuesday and most
of Wednesday and the only cloud cover to note would be fair weather,
diurnal cumulus.

For late Wednesday and beyond, the long term models diverge quite a
bit. The GFS greatly amplifies the ridge over the eastern United
States and generates an upper level cut off high. With the GFS
solution, there would be a couple pieces of energy in the mid levels
that could support convection on Thursday, but it would be scattered
precipitation at best. The ECMWF solution brings an upper level
trough across the northern United States that would erode the upper
level ridge and bring widespread convection to the region for
Thursday. For now, have a chance for showers and thunderstorms and
upper 70s for the end of the long term period and will have to fine
tune as long term model solutions become better organized.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...

VFR weather is expected through saturday afternoon with high
pressure lingering to the east. Very light fog may develop near
cak from 09-11z which could drop VSBY to 5sm. otherwise no
restriction to VSBY is expected. Stable conditions persist so
only expect an isolated shower or thunderstorm with peak diurnal
heating.

Outlook...isolated to scattered Non-VFR possible in afternoon showers
and thunderstorms. brief MVFR possible in early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday from MFD to CAK and YNG.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie remains quiet as high pressure settles well to our south
and east. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and southerly
through Sunday night with the exception of a lake breeze Friday and
Saturday afternoons. A weak cold front will move across the area
early Monday morning with some rain and a shift to westerly winds
for a day before shifting to the north on Tuesday. Waves will be 2
feet or less and no small craft advisories are expected through
early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...Jamison
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...LaPlante
MARINE...Sefcovic



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