Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 231701
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
101 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Pennsylvania will move off the east
coast tonight. Low pressure will slowly move from the
Mississippi Valley across the Great Lakes Wednesday and
Thursday. High pressure will briefly build over the region
Friday into Saturday but another frontal system is expected over
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure still ridged from central PA west across
the lower Great Lakes. We should continue to see varying amounts
of mid and high clouds this afternoon. The weak gradient and
high sun angle will generate a lake breeze this afternoon but
not a rip roaring one. Temps will be affected only near the
lakeshore until later this afternoon. No other changes for the
early afternoon update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Have continued the recent trend of slowing the onset of precip
down. We should be able to squeak out a dry night and most of
the area will remain dry into Wednesday afternoon. Some question
as to whether NW PA will see any showers before early evening.
The models continue to have some differences handling the track
and movement of the low set to move into the region on
Wednesday. These differences should have little impact on the
practical weather as widespread precip is expected by tomorrow
evening. Forecast soundings show some instablilty and CAPE
tomorrow morning but once the steadier rain starts things should
stabilize. The previous forecast already had thunder mentioned
for Wednesday so will leave it in the forecast although I have
trimmed it back some. Showery weather will continue Wednesday
night and again Thursday. The low itself should finally move
off to the east Thursday night. Drier air will work into the
western end of the area Thursday night behind the low.
But...locations downwind of the lake could see some instability
showers into Friday evening.

Temps for the most part will be seasonable. Highs Wednesday will
be warmest in the east since it will take longer for the precip
to arrive. Thursday will be a gray day with temps a tad below
normal but seasonable readings are again expected by Friday.
Have used a blend of guidance temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change to the long term forecast with active pattern bringing
periodic precip chances through the holiday weekend. Model
differences lend to lower confidence during this period, with low
pressure tracking somewhere through the region Saturday night
through Sunday. Then, a series of shortwaves are expected to rotate
through the Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday as upper low
settles southeast into the northern Lakes. Will hold with generally
slight chance/chance pops through much of the period, with likely
pops Sunday as models somewhat agree on decent rain chances that
day. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal during
this period, with cooler temps possible just after this period
toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR expected to continue until late tonight or Wed morning then shra
and possible tsra will spread north across the area causing areas of
non vfr to develop. The tsra threat appears too low to mention thru
15z and then only as VCTS after 15z. Light winds from mainly the
east will continue thru the period.

OUTLOOK...Areas of Non-VFR late Wed thru Thu in showers and
possible tsra and again for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions expected on Lake Erie as surface ridge axis slowly
pushes east of the area today. Southerly flow will decrease through
the morning becoming light and variable, then increasing out of the
east 5 to 10 knots this evening. East northeast flow will increase
to 10 to 20 knots Wednesday as low pressure deepens and tracks
northeast towards the lake. The flow will gradually veer southerly
by Thursday morning and westerly by Thursday evening as the low
lifts north of the lake. Flow will remain westerly through Friday in
the 10 to 15 knot range.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Greenawalt/Oudeman



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