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000
FXUS61 KCLE 270837
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT EXCEPT FOR A STRATUS DECK WHICH HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NW/NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.  EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO MIX
OUT BY MID MORNING AS RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
OVER THE AREA TODAY.  WILL BE NICE TO SEE THE SUN BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK STRONG ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TOMORROW.  BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT VALLEYS AND COOLER
LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 20 BELOW.  DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE
WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR CALM.  HOWEVER IT WILL
BE EXTREMELY COLD AND RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE BROKEN.

HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A
NICE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP FUEL NEXT SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE OF
A ZONAL FLOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ON SUNDAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
PLENTY OF LIFT SUNDAY AS A 150KT JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES LATE SUNDAY. IN ADDITION PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF OF OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THIS
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OUT OF ROUTE 30 WHERE A
CHANCE OF RAIN IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
A MIX. FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE SNOW THAT FAR OUT BUT LOOKING LIKE
A WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCHES OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. A HEADLINE WILL
DEFINITELY BE NEEDED. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNABLE TO SEE THE 00Z ECMWF TONIGHT SO HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A
RESULT WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP.  ALTHOUGH THIS PRECIP MAY START
AS SNOW IT SHOULD TRANSITION TO EITHER A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARM.  THE LATEST GFS STILL HAS 850 MB TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND PLUS 8 DEG SO HAVE BUMPED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY UP A
FEW MORE DEGREES.  THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD ALSO FALL AS RAIN.  STILL TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS IS PROBLEMATIC
GIVEN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND FLOODING IS A CONCERN.  THE
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AND TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION.  THE GFS IS SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS DIPPING TO NEG 22 BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS NW OH SO SPRING
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PUT ON HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRIER AIR
WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE DECREASING AND SOME FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MVFR VISIBILITY STILL POSSIBLE. WITH THE DRIER AIR
WORKING IN GOING WITH SKIES CLEARING OR SCATTERING OUT. SOME
QUESTION ON THAT BETWEEN THE MODELS. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE...ESPECIALLY OVER NW OH WHERE THERE IS NO LAKE INFLUENCE
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -20C. ON FRIDAY THE TREND SEEMS TO
BE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...AT THIS TIME KEEPING THEM SCATTERED.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CLEARING ON MONDAY.
NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE. IN FACT THE WINDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. MAINLY WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A SWITCH TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THE
FLOW WILL THEN REMAIN SOUTHERLY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BY LATE MONDAY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA