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000
FXUS61 KCLE 011714
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
114 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...A FAIRLY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA.
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT
WAY TODAY. FOR A CHANGE THERE ARE NO RETURNS ON THE RADAR. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF STORMS IN NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THAT AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP AS A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE LACKING SO NOTHING MORE
THAN BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
TEMPS WILL GET OFF TO A WARMER START THAN YESTERDAY AND 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ALSO SUPPOSED TO BE A TAD WARMER TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONVERGES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THEN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT LIKELY POPS ARE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY BUT THINK THE COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND WILL STICK WITH NO MORE
THAN A 50 CHANCE. THINGS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY AND BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE DRY. THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST COULD BRING SOME
LINGERING PRECIP TO THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
LACKING SO NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN BEYOND
THAT TIME WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM TRENDING TOWARDS A DEEPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER NEW ENGLAND WHICH WOULD TEND TO PUSH THE
FRONT/MOISTURE AXIS PRETTY FAR TO THE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT STALLING OVER NRN OHIO WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
ALTHOUGH NOT CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS...WOULD TEND TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE DEEPER TROUGH AS THIS HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT PATTERN OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST PERIODS
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BUT IF THE FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THEN WE MIGHT BE
ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FOR A FEW PERIODS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 80
IN NW OHIO/MID 70S FOR NE OHIO AND NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. FORECAST
QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE SHRA/TSRA REACH
OVERNIGHT? NAM SPREADS IT OVER ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE GFS
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH PRECIP ONLY REACHING NW OH OVERNIGHT.
FOR TAFS BRING PRECIP INTO NW OH OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A MENTION OF
VCSH ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE
AGAIN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY WITH WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH NUDGES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY GOOD MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC