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000
FXUS61 KCLE 102052
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
352 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE NEXT TROUGH (IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS) WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY TONIGHT. THE FLOW IS INITIALLY SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD VEER JUST
ENOUGH TO GET NEW SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE. SOME
BURSTS OF LAKE ENHANCED HEAVY SNOW ARE LIKELY IN ERIE COUNTY...AND
POSSIBLY THE ASHTABULA COUNTY LAKESHORE. I DOUBT THEY WILL PENETRATE
VERY FAR INLAND. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS INDICATE A SECOND WEST/EAST
BAND IN LAKE COUNTY WHICH IS A TRADITIONAL SPOT BUT I AM NERVOUS
THAT THE FLOW WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO SOUTHWEST. WILL POST A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AND THE ASHTABULA COUNTY
LAKESHORE INTO WED MORNING. THE BANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP
OFFSHORE...MORE TOWARD BUFFALO... WEDNESDAY MORNING

ELSEWHERE THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY ESSENTIALLY DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY. WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW ON THE GROUND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...TEMPS WILL DROP NICELY BUT THE WIND WILL
STAY UP. MOST AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SHOULD SNEAK DOWN TO THE
LOWER/MID TEENS. COLDER PROTECTED SPOTS WILL GET COLDER. MID/UPPER
TEENS ELSEWHERE...NEAR 20 OR LOW 20S ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT TROUGH IS MORE LIKE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. IT WILL SAG
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL BE
DETERMINED TO A SOME EXTENT ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT DEVELOPS
OUT OVER LAKE ERIE. IF WE COULD GET A GOOD BAND OR BANDS OF SNOW IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THEN BRING THEM ONSHORE...THERE WOULD BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY OF COURSE IN THE
SNOW BELT...BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SNOW SPREAD FROM SANDUSKY
TO CANTON. FOR NOW...WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH MOSTLY "CHANCE" POPS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST A SNOW ADVISORY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT AND A WARNING
MAY BE NECESSARY ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ON THE WAY IS DRY ARCTIC AIR
AND THE LAKE EFFECT ACCUMS MAY BE LIMITED. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE
MODELS POST QPF WITH THE WARM ADVECTION BUT I WOULD NOT THINK IT
WOULD BE ANYTHING OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT UNTIL THE
WIND TOTALLY SHIFTS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND POSSIBLY A WINTER STORM. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODELS ARE ALL
SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SNOW DEVELOPING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES
ALONG THE RESIDENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE GULF COAST BEFORE STRENGTHENING AS IT TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL HAVE NOT BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT HAVE EXHIBITED A TREND TOWARDS MORE
PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND A COMPACT UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS TREND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER
SNOW CHANCES...UNLESS THE SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING PULLED FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST THAT TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ALOFT AND WE SEE A PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SEEING A WINTER STORM IF
THINGS GET ORGANIZED A LITTLE BIT BETTER.

THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL JUST RAISE POPS BY
ANOTHER 10-20 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY. WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL SNOW
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PULLING ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTH GIVEN THE
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. STORM TRACK AND PRECIP
TYPE WILL BOTH BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN ECMWF...BUT TREND IN BOTH IS
THE SAME. WEATHER TRANSITIONS INTO A LAKE EFFECT EVENT BY SUNDAY
AS TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AND THE 850MB TEMPS DIP
TO MINUS 16C. SHOULD MAINLY EFFECT THE PRIMARY SNOW BELT. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY NUDGES OVER LAKE TO CHOKE OFF LAKE EFFECT ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL DECK WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER BUT REMAIN VFR FOR
AFTERNOON PUSH. WEAK TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE
TONIGHT KICKING OFF SOME SNOW...MAINLY OVER NW PA.  WIND GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE ERIE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY
IN -SHSN...MAINLY OVER NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GALE WARNING STILL IN
EFFECT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
TO PICK UP AND WIND SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE STRENGTH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION HAVE
ISSUED LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE FOR
TONIGHT.  TOMORROW WINDS DROP BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP.  THE FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ001-
     002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ061-148-149-168-
     169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142-143-162-
     163.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB/KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB