Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 160859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
359 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Low pressure from the southern Plains will track to the Great Lakes
by Tuesday and Quebec by Wednesday. A warm front will lift north
across the area today and early tonight. The associated cold front
will move across the area on Tuesday. High pressure will build in
from the west Tuesday night and Wednesday. The high will shift east
on Thursday. Low pressure is expected to track across the midwest
on Friday.


The models are trending a bit slower with the onset of precipitation
and there is not much reaching the ground anywhere nearby. That
being said, cannot rule out some light rain/sprinkles developing
across northwest Ohio by mid/late morning. Plenty of warm air
aloft. Temperatures at the surface will be slow to rise in the
Toledo area with the remnants of arctic air, a light east wind,
clouds and virga. The forecast will bring a slight chance in this
morning with temperatures at or below freezing but given the
uncertainty on the arrival of precip and whether there will be any
measurable precip will not issue any advisories at this time and
will continue to monitor. Elsewhere clouds will thicken up and a
sprinkle or light shower may develop this afternoon. Forecast
highs near the cooler guidance with mid 30s around Toledo and
upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere.


Temperatures will continue to rise tonight with the exception of
perhaps losing a few degrees at sunset. Rain will overspread the
area. Temperatures may be near freezing in eastern Erie and Crawford
counties PA and depending on the timing of the onset of the rain,
cannot rule out localized freezing rain.

Some elevated cape develops overnight into Tuesday morning and
the low level jet is progged to increase nicely but given the fact
that the system is occluding with modest upward motion and limited
cape will not include thunder at this point. QPF should remain
roughly a half an inch or so which should not present any
significant flood risk. If any heavier convective showers or
thunder were to develop then we would have to watch basin rainfall

Not much cold air behind the system especially for January. Rather
than a change to snow we may just see drizzle or sprinkle as the
trough aloft passes overhead Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Not sure if there will be much clearing on Wednesday. Subsidence
increases and there would seem to be drier air in the lower layers
from the west but am always suspicious this time of year under the
inversion. Will allow for some clearing across northwest Ohio.
Temperatures still above normal with highs in the upper 30s and
lower 40s.


Long term pattern looks warm and wet, with broad eastern CONUS
ridging and several embedded systems lifting northward into the
region in a return flow regime. Highs generally in the upper 40s to
mid 50s expected Thursday through at least Monday, with lows
generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Right now, have chance pops in for Friday with slight chance Friday
night. Models are in decent agreement with the low lifting into the
region, but some subtle differences preclude anything more than
chance pops at this time. Maintaining dry forecast Saturday/Saturday
night given lower confidence and a lack of strong forcing, but bring
back high chance pops Sunday through Monday as an upper low deepens
from the southern Plains and slowly moves through the Ohio valley.


.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
High pressure over New England will slowly slide eastward through
the night. This will allow the light and variable winds to become
southeast to east on Monday. Winds will increase slightly Monday
afternoon but should remain under 10 knots.

As a warm front moves northward across Ohio ceilings will lower
but believe precipitation will not reach the surface with dry
lower levels of the atmosphere. Ceilings will lower to MVFR levels
by mid afternoon across the west and then slowly spread eastward.
Any rainfall will be very light and will only help to moisten the
lower levels and produce some thickening fog. Better chances of
rain will arrive after 00z along with the development of IFR

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Monday night through Tuesday in ra. May mix with
or change to a little snow Wednesday morning.


Light and variable winds expected across Lake Erie today as high
pressure continues to drift eastward. Low pressure will approach the
region tonight with east winds increasing 5 to 15 knots and veering
south/southwest Tuesday/Tuesday night. Flow will remain generally
southwest 5 to 15 knots Wednesday through Thursday as a ridge of
high pressure builds into the region. Light and variable winds are
expected Thursday night into Friday with the ridge overhead.




NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
MARINE...Greenawalt is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.