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000
FXUS61 KCLE 101755
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
155 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...CHANGES MOST AREAS TO PARTLY SUNNY SINCE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING A BIT. BELIEVE THE TREND WILL CONTINUE. ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPS USING MODIFIED HRRR AS GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE FIRST IS MOVING INTO WESTERN NY NOW WITH SOME LIFT OVER THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
SURFACE BECAUSE OF THE DRY LAYER IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. HAVE
MENTIONED SOME SPRINKLES FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE
COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS IT APPROACHES
LIFT WILL INCREASE BUT BELIEVE ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM NICELY WITH
HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR A CHANGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO
THE 50S...EXCEPT WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE TOLEDO
AREA AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THIS EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME
LAKE INDUCED LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FROM THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE
COUNTIES NORTHEAST INTO NW PA. IT MAY END UP JUST BEING SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OFF OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH
THE 50S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP IN SOME OF THE AFTERNOON WARMTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THAT SAID WE BELIEVE
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE RAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE READY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO THE COLDER AIR AND PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO MAYBE HEAVY SNOWFALL. THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NW
OHIO FIRST THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF SNOW WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO MEADVILLE. STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TRACK AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TO KEEP US FROM PINPOINTING SNOW
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER 4+ INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SWATH
OF HEAVIER SNOW.

MODEL TRENDS THIS WINTER SEASON HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
SEVERAL OF THE STORM SYSTEMS. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING A FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE 850 MB
LOW MAKE US THINK THAT MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA COULD BE RAIN INTO MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. STAY
TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE REGION CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
THEN MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH 40 DEGREES AGAIN ALL AREAS...UPPER 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR IS NOT THAT STRONG...BUT A SECONDARY PUSH
WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH 30 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE IS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF MID
CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS MY LIGHTEN UP ENOUGH FOR PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW. NON-VFR WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE
TODAY...SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE EAST
END OF THE LAKE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL DROP OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.

BY MIDWEEK WE WILL BE WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR NORTH WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH BUT
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 30 KNOTS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC