Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 200512
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1212 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast across Lake Huron early Wednesday
pulling a trailing cold front across Ohio. High pressure will move
east across the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Have really trimmed precip chances back overnight and Tuesday
as precip the next 24 hours should be mainly confined to NW OH.
Temps have climbed into the 60s most areas and little drop is
expected overnight. Have made other adjustments as well.

Previous...Most of the area has received between 0.50-1.00 of
rain today causing soggy conditions and rises on rivers. The
area of rain overhead will lift north this evening as the warm
front continues to lift north with an area of low pressure
oriented from the southern Plains across lower Michigan. Rain
will end across much of the area this evening, with the
exception being across northwest Ohio and perhaps across far
northern areas near Lake Erie. These areas will seen additional
lighter rainfall overnight as waves of showers being driven by
shortwave energy moving around the ridge continue. Expanded the
Flood Watch to include Hancock, Sandusky, and Seneca Counties
that will be closer to the axis of rainfall and may receive
another 0.25 or more through Tuesday, followed by additional
rain with the frontal passage late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be mild overnight and will not drop off much.
Warming trend continues on Tuesday with near record temperatures
for all areas with breezy southerly flow and a ridge building
aloft. The high at Toledo is a little more questionable and
will depend on the coverage of showers. Drier air aloft moves
over the eastern two thirds of the area during the afternoon on
Tuesday with clouds trying to scatter out late. Will continue
with a mostly cloudy forecast but their is a chance of sun
peeking through across NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania late in the
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will move into northwest Ohio late Tuesday night and
move southeast across the area through Wednesday morning.
Temperatures ahead of the front will be warm with temperatures
generally in the middle and upper 50s. Temperatures will drop off
quickly behind the front will falling temperatures expected through
the day Wednesday.

Widespread rain will be associated with this front with an
additional 0.5 to 1 inch of rain expected for the western two-thirds
of the area and around a half inch expected across the eastern
third. With grounds already saturated it won`t take much The flood
watch remains in effect for northwest Ohio through Wednesday
afternoon.

Rain will come to an end during the afternoon hours Wednesday across
northwest Ohio. The rain may come to an end for much of the area by
late Wednesday evening, but even if it does there will be another
surge of moisture that moves in Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This will bring rain and some snow/sleet/freezing rain
showers back into the forecast for much of the area. The
precipitation may not make it all the way into northwest Ohio, but
will still keep chance PoPs in for now. By late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning precipitation should change over to a mix of rain
and snow with possibly all snow and/or some light freezing rain
across northern areas. Little to no snow/ice accumulation is
expected. Will not mention freezing rain in the forecast at this
time as temperatures are marginal and there remains a lot of
uncertainty. A change over back to all rain is expected by Thursday
afternoon as the precipitation ends from northwest to southeast.

Another surface low and cold front will move across the area Friday
bringing more widespread rain to the region. Temperatures ahead of
the front will warm into the 50s across a majority of the CWA. Far
northwest Ohio could be stuck in the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large area of upper level high pressure persists over the
southeastern United States Friday night while an upper level trough
axis rotates east and becomes negatively tilted by Sunday morning
across the area.  The upper level ridge in the southeast weakens
into a ridge during the same time period. A secondary upper level
shot of positive vorticity maximum along with the shortwave trough
moves east across the area Monday.  This feature will be moisture
starved as it reaches our area.  This is contrary to the initial
trough that moves east across the area over the weekend where an
extensive area of moisture streams northeast and then east across
the area. Polar jet appears it will remain north of the forecast
area through the duration of the extended period with no strong cold
air outbreaks expected during this time.  Unfortunately, it appears
the mild temperatures will be short lived heading into the last
several days of February and early March as the Arctic and North
Atlantic Oscillations are trending well below normal. A signal that
signifies much colder air will return.

The resultant surface high pressure centered off the coast of the
Carolinas will keep a return southwest flow across the forecast area
over the weekend.  Meanwhile, surface low pressure will develop over
southern Texas and will move northeast along a stationary front
across Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania by Saturday night. As the
low pressure system moves Northeast of the area, a trailing cold
front will sweep east across the forecast area Sunday morning.
Moisture associated with the storm system and upper level trough
system will move East of the area Sunday.  High pressure will move
Northeast toward the area Sunday night into Monday.  The high will
bring a return back to fair weather once again Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR should tend to dominate thru 06z tonight as the front stays off
to the NW. The exception will probably be TOL which may see sct shra
and possible tsra affecting the site almost anytime during the
period. Surface winds will continue to increase into midday today so
the threat of fog appears minimal. Gusts in the afternoon will
likely be in a 25 to 35 knot range.

OUTLOOK...A period of Non-VFR expected late tonight and Wed with
frontal passage then again Fri and Sat with the net front.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong southerly winds will continue into tonight, increasing
further tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front. South winds are
expected to be around 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. As the cold
front moves through Wednesday morning winds will shift to the
northwest and then north. Northeast winds around 10 knots will
settle in by Thursday morning with winds continuing to veer around
to the east by Thursday night. Light southerly winds return for
Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible on Tuesday, February 20th.
Here are record high temperatures for climate sites for that date:

Climate Site       Record High    Year
Cleveland (CLE)        69         1930
Akron-Canton (CAK)     67         2016
Youngstown (YNG)       65         2016 and 1939
Mansfield (MFD)        66         2016 and 1930
Toledo (TOL)           66         1930
Erie, PA (ERI)         66         2016 and 1930

Temperatures on Tuesday, February 20th are forecast to be close to
all time record highs for the month of February. Here are the all
time daily record high temperatures for the month:

Climate Site       Record High    Date
Cleveland (CLE)        77         2/24/2017
Akron-Canton (CAK)     76         2/24/2017
Youngstown (YNG)       75         2/24/2017
Mansfield (MFD)        74         2/24/2017
Toledo (TOL)           71         2/24/2017 (Tie with 4 dates)
Erie, PA (ERI)         77         2/24/2017

Temperatures on Tuesday, February 20th are also forecast to be
close to all time record highs for the meteorological winter season
(December - February). Here are the all time daily record high
temperatures for the winter season:

Climate Site       Record High    Date
Cleveland (CLE)        77         2/24/2017
Akron-Canton (CAK)     76         2/24/2017 and 12/3/1982
Youngstown (YNG)       76         12/3/1982
Mansfield (MFD)        74         2/24/2017
Toledo (TOL)           71         2/24/2017 (Tie with 6 dates)
Erie, PA (ERI)         77         2/24/2017

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for OHZ003-006>008-017-
     018.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Kubina
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Mottice
CLIMATE...Sefcovic



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