Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 252336
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
736 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
A weakening cold front will move south of the Ohio Valley by
Tuesday night where it will become stationary. High pressure will
slide across the lower Great Lakes through mid week. A cold front
is expected to sag south to near Lake Erie on Thursday. The
stationary front over the Ohio Valley will move back north as a
warm front by Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Update...Removed pops from se and adjusted cloud cover a small
amount. otherwise no changes.
original...Our weak cold front has essentially become a series of
troughs. The first trough is south of Youngstown and Canton. The
second trough seems back over Lake Erie as dew points remain
rather high near Lake Erie. There is subsidence between the
troughs with a warm layer aloft and not even much cumulus. Cannot
totally rule out a shower near the south shore of Lake Erie as the
trough/front comes onshore early tonight but not worth mentioning
(less than 10 percent pop). It will take much of the night for the
slightly cooler/drier air to filter in. Lows generally 65 to 70.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Most of the models slowly push the front/trough across southern Ohio
on Tuesday, then south of the Ohio River by Wednesday. The surface
high should be overhead by Tuesday night, then move east on
Wednesday. The air mass is progged to be several degrees cooler at
850 mb on Tuesday but still the equivalent of mid/upper 80s for
surface highs. Dew points will be lower though so we will lose the
stickiness. The north wind will make it a bit cooler near Lake
Erie on Tuesday.
The models continue to drop a back door cold front to near Lake Erie
on Thursday. At the same time, the old boundary tries to drift back
north as a warm front. We could remain between systems in a relative
lull but do not have that much confidence in the model frontal
positions. Some of the models continue to generate a surface low on
the warm front. The low may be driven by convective feedback and not
going to play that card at the moment. Will continue with a forecast
for "chance or slight chance" of showers and thunderstorms Thursday.
There are still a lot of areas that could use the rain. It has
become feast or famine on the rain lately.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Concerned surface front may be too far along to the se for that much
of a rain threat so lowering pops for fri thru sat. Will maintain a
small chc pop on sun as upper trough with some moisture present then
trend toward drier conditions for mon as trough shifts east allowing
upper ridging to start building into the area. Temps should run
around or slightly above normal.
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Cumulus clouds dissipating with sunset this evening. Some high
clouds spreading west to east across the area at this time. Some
MVFR fog is possible overnight. Not expecting any dense fog at
this time. Some fair weather cumulus clouds expected inland
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable through the night and 5
to 10 knots tomorrow.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in fog each morning. Non-VFR possible
in thunderstorms on Friday.
WSW winds 10 to 20 knots with 2 to 4 foot waves in the east will
diminish some tonight while winds veer to the nw. High pressure
builds over the lake tue into tue night causing winds to become
light and changeable. The models differ thu into sat so wind
direction in question but with weak wx features winds should stay
mainly 10 knots or less.