Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 181933
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
333 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Upper Ohio Valley into Sunday
before shifting off to the east. A cold front will eventually
cross the local area Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The weather can`t get any quieter than it will be the next 36
hours. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather and
with the exception of a brief increase in high clouds
tomorrow...skies will be mainly clear. Looking at forecast
soundings and new model guidance...temperatures should continue
to slowly moderate. Have trended a little warmer than guidance
for highs tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Fairly quiet short term period expected as persistent ridging
continues over the eastern CONUS. This will allow for southerly
flow/WAA and dry conditions Friday through Saturday night. No major
changes to the previous forecast, however did bump up high
temperatures a degree or two on Saturday, which looks like the day
with the least cloud cover and warmest 850mb temps. Highs should
reach the mid 70s Saturday and Sunday. A cold front will approach
the region from the west on Sunday. 12Z guidance has come in slower,
specifically the ECMWF, which is now in line with the timing of the
GFS/GEM. Went with a dry forecast for the daytime on Sunday, as
there is no guidance that indicates precip in the forecast area
before 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term does not offer any clearer picture for timing of the
cold front across the area.  Will hold with the previous timing of
likely chances split between Sunday night and Monday. 12Z ECMWF has
now come back away from its 00Z fast outlier solution. But basically
it will take some time to resolve how much split flow develops and
then the impact on timing for this front. Overall trend though for
early next week will be for cooler and cloudier weather. Another
shortwave from south-central Canada will dig the east coast trough
deeper and allow more of the cooler air to sink across the Great
Lakes. So, depending on shortwave timing, will likely have lake
effect influence through Tuesday and/or Wednesday. After seasonable
temperatures Monday, we will be below normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Mainly SKC skies expected till Thursday morning when there could
be a few high clouds over the area. Southerly winds will gust up
to 20 knots this afternoon before diminishing this evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in shra late Sun and Sun night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in control over Lake Erie tonight, with
continued southwest flow through Thursday afternoon. A weak trough
will cross the lake Thursday afternoon, with winds shifting around
to the northwest for a brief period Thursday night. Some small craft
conditions may arise Thursday afternoon/evening, mainly across the
eastern end of the lake, but will hold off for now. High pressure
regains control Friday, with fairly light southerly winds through
most of the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Greenawalt



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