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000
FXUS61 KCLE 220545
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
145 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will drift across
eastern Canada through Monday. The associated cold front will
slide across the area tonight. High pressure will cross the
Ohio Valley Monday and move to the east coast on Tuesday. The
next storm system will slowly move from the Mississippi Valley
across the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Cold front has reached a line from Port Clinton to Upper
Sandusky. Scattered showers/thunderstorms...although lightning
has been diminishing as of late...still making their way east.
Will keep precip chances between 40 and 60 percent as not
expecting too much more coverage. Precip should be at far
eastern Erie/Crawford counties by 5 or 6 am. Temps/dewpoints
drop behind the front. Expecting lows generally around 50 for
northwest OH and lower/mid 50s NE OH/NW PA with a breeze to keep
it from getting overly cool. Much less humid conditions on its
way...dewpoints drop back into the 40s as close as IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure at the surface will build in on Monday and it will be
a somewhat breezy and seasonably cool day. The majority of the wrap
around stratocumulus in the trough aloft will lift out across the
Great Lakes but a fair amount of cumulus/stratocumulus will develop.
Highs mostly in the 60s. Forecast lows will be a degree or two below
guidance Monday night based on the cool airmass and high pressure
almost overhead.

Some question as to how fast the next showers will arrive. Most of
the models keep a decent ridge wedged across the area on Tuesday. We
could get brushed by a wave on the slow moving front south and east
of the area rather than seeing anything from the west on Tuesday.
Will keep the forecast pop generally below 15. It will be the nicest
day of the work week with highs in the 70s.

Models are in good agreement with the next piece of energy closing
off over the plains and the closed low diving SSE. There is still
some disagreement on the location of the surface features on
Wednesday. The surface low will develop somewhere from near Lake
Michigan to Memphis. The forecast will not be impacted much at this
point. Will have showers becoming likely from west to east during
the day. Temperatures are tricky. It will be cool, in the 60s, where
the showers develop early. Highs in the lower/mid 70s where the rain
holds off. Will have the warmer forecast highs across NE OH and NW
PA where the showers may not arrive until afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Although models differ exact track and timing of slow moving low
pressure system...trend is to move the low across the lower lakes
Thursday.   Low tracks NE Thursday night as high pressure nudges
into the Upper Ohio valley.  After that the models diverge.  ECMWF
tracks a series of lows across the Lower lakes Saturday and again
Sunday. GFS tracks Saturday low much further south then moves the
second low across the Central Lakes Sunday night.   compromised but
leaned toward the ECMWF by keeping low chance pops Saturday and
again Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Cold front currently across NE OH will push east out of the
area. A few showers are possible along the front for the first
hour or two of the TAF period at KCAK, KYNG and KERI. Lingering
post-frontal VFR/MVFR ceilings expected through 12Z, before an
eventual scouring out of the ceilings from west to east through
the morning as drier at moves in. Winds will remain westerly
through the period, with some gusts to 20 knots this afternoon,
with VFR conditions/no ceilings expected from mid morning
onward.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible again Tuesday night thru
Thursday in showers and TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south winds this evening...but it wont last.   Cold front will
move across the lake tonight and by morning choppy conditions with
west winds of 10 to 15 knots.   May approach small craft advisory
conditions for a period in the East.   Winds turn back to the south
Monday night as high pressure moves across the upper Ohio
Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...DJB