Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261954
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SE END OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 22Z AT THE
LATEST. WILL LEAVE A LEFT OVER MENTION OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING SO NO FLOODING
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. IT WILL
BE TOUGH TO FLUSH ALL OF THE HUMID AIR OUT BUT DEWPOINTS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WHICH IS ABOUT WHERE LOWS WILL BE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUIET BUT WARM AND HUMID. 850
MB TEMPS WILL RETURN TO PLUS 20 ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S SEEM REASONABLE FOR MONDAY AND
MANY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS SUMMER. THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS TRENDING
SLOWER AND SHOULD NOT ARRIVE NOW TILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIP WITH ONLY ABOUT THE NW 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE
AREA SEE PRECIP CHANCES BY EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT`S LOOKING LIKE A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
PRECIP. THUS WILL KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE GONE. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST A LOW POP ON THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE EAST. AFTER
THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 80S WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO KICK OFF A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND BUT MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
AND LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL ONLY CARRY A
LOW CHANCE POP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MOST LIKELY SITES TO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAK/YNG
THROUGH 21Z WITH A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS EXTENDING WEST TO
MFD. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY FROM THE NORTH WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD RETURN
OVERNIGHT AT CAK/YNG IN BR.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AND WILL
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH LAND AND LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC


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