Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 251307
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
907 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will weaken toward evening as a weak
cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to
the north Thursday as high pressure tries to build back into the
area from the east Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dewpoints remain fairly low and it`s going to take some time for
any precip to form. Will be watching an impulse aloft as moves
over the western end of the area this afternoon. Have gone ahead
and lowered precip chances to come into better agreement with
neighboring offices. Temperatures look fine.

Original...Skies clear across the area early this morning but am
concerned about convective development today as a short wave over
Indiana/Illinois area drifts east. Models bring this feature into
the area today with increasing moisture. capes increase to around
1200 j/kg in the west on the NAM with LI`s around -3 to -4 west
and south on the GFS. The GFS guidance does take pops up to around
50% west today while the NAM is essentially dry. Given the
building upper ridge dont want to go too high with ops but will
split the difference and call for mid chance category pops west
and south. lower numbers elsewhere. highs will get into the lower
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
tonight a cold front will approach from the nne. Current model
guidance from the NAM12 suggests it does not make it into the
area. Basically tonight through Saturday not a lot of change with
low pressure to our west and high pressure off the mid Atlantic
coast extending west toward the area. Pattern supports a
continued increase in rh through the period as heights build. Will
have highest pops in the afternoons and evenings with a diurnal
drop off overnight. Highs will be in the 80s and all in
all...quite summer-like.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Humid conditions area expected through the long term period. Warm
temperatures and the elevated moisture levels will keep
isolated/scattered thunderstorm chances going the entire period.
However it does appear we can limit them to the afternoon and
evening. Cloud cover will vary by the amount of thunderstorms that
can develop each day. This convective debris cloudiness could impact
highs each day by a few degrees.

Highs will generally be 80 to 85 degrees which is around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A cold front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag
southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie.
High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching
frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface
pressure gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as
far inland today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact
locations east of KCLE. The main impact will be at KERI with a
west to northwest wind developing around noon. winds may gust
around 15 knots for a few hours in this location. Elsewhere the
southwest wind should be around 10 knots.

Otherwise expect to see a continuation of VFR conditions through
the afternoon. There will be some afternoon cumulus, especially
across the south and southwest. A trough over Illinois early this
morning will approach western OH by late afternoon and could
generate a few thunderstorms. Not overly excited about this
potential but if the thunder can develop it may impact KFDY and
KMFD.

Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Sunday as well
as early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front front from Quebec to Northern Lower Michigan will sag
southward through the day but should remain north of Lake Erie.
High pressure centered near the SE U.S. coast and the approaching
frontal boundary should increase the southwesterly surface pressure
gradient enough to keep the lake breeze from moving as far inland
today. Believe the lake breeze will mainly impact locations east of
Cleveland.

Southwest winds today will become more south to southeast for
Thursday through Saturday night. It appears there will be a lake
breeze both Friday and Saturday afternoon. This onshore flow will
likely build waves for a few hours each afternoon. Waves will not
exceed 2 to 3 feet. There will be an isolated/scattered thunderstorm
threat each afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/Kubina
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Mullen



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