Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 291700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP BETWEEN BUCRYUS AND MANSFIELD AND
NUDGED THE "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF SHOWERS A COUNTY FARTHER EAST THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT INCLUDES ALL OF THE AKRON AND
CLEVELAND METRO AREAS. THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN THOUGH AS THE TROUGH ALOFT IS STILL PRETTY FAR WEST
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RELATIVELY STABLE. NUDGED UP THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS AND ALLOWED FOR SOME
SUNSHINE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AS THERE ARE QUITE A FEW HOLES IN
THE CLOUDS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE NOON UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEMS HAVE THEIR OWN CHALLENGES. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR WHO WILL GET RAIN WHEN AND HOW MUCH...IF ANY FOR SOME. IT IS
PROMISING THAT THERE IS MEASURABLE PRECIP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WEST...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE LITTLE SUPPORT IT HAS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE BY THIS EVENING AREA HAS DECENT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT STILL COULD NOT BE CONVINCED TO GO
AS HIGH AS EVEN 60 PERCENT. SOME OF THAT MOISTURE LINGERS ON
SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAK CAPES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING DO
NOT HAVE HIGH HOPES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY EITHER. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES
ARE NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT. BY MONDAY...MUCH OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD AND THE RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN AND EXPECTING
TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 FOR SUNDAY AND REACH SOLIDLY IN THE MID
80S BY TUESDAY. LOWS IN LOWER AND MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE DRY GROUND
ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. THERE COULD BE A FEW 90S IF WE CAN AVOID ANY CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. AS FAR AS THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IT APPEARS
THAT IT WILL BE MINIMAL. IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET SIGNIFICANT RISING
MOTION WHEN 5H HEIGHTS ARE SO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT WEAK CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE REGION THRU
SUNDAY. EXCEPT WHERE CONVECTION LOOKS IMMINENT...WILL JUST USE VCTS
IN TAFS TO COVER THE PROLONGED THREAT FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER.
INCREASING DEWPOINTS...NIGHTTIME COOLING AND AREAS OF RAINFALL
SHOULD WORK TOGETHER TO RESULT IN LATE NIGHT FOG FOR MOST SITES
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT ERI AND CLE SHOULD LESSEN THE
THREAT AT THESE AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF NON VFR IN MORNING FOG.


&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGED EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING FROM CLEVELAND TO
ERIE. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE LAKESHORE EACH AFTERNOON WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCE MAY NUDGE ONSHORE WINDS UP TO JUST OVER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...MULLEN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.