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000
FXUS61 KCLE 081559
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1159 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MCV WILL EXIT NW PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TAKING THE FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT HAS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS WESTERN OHIO AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND AND FILL IN. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT A STRONG JET ALOFT COUPLED WITH GOOD
SHEAR IN THE LOWER 6 KM WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF CAPE. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE WAS LITTLE RAIN THIS MORNING...FROM AROUND ROUTE 30
SOUTH... WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE MOMENTUM
COULD STRETCH THE SEVERE THREAT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WILL LIKELY PUT OUT A WATCH
AT SOME POINT. WILL MENTION THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE COUNTIES FROM AROUND MANSFIELD EAST ACROSS AKRON AND YOUNGSTOWN
AND MEADVILLE. THE COLD FRONT AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EAST
AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF YOUNGSTOWN BY 4 PM AND EAST OF NW PA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z TONIGHT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE SE
OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO A CHANCE MENTION EASTERN AREAS FOR A
FEW HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD THEN BE DRY. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST OF KCLE. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WIN OUT
ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP. A DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL KEEP A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE CURRENT TIMING BRINGING ONE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND ANOTHER ON MONDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. DETAILS
ON LOCATIONS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS WE WATCH THE MOVEMENT OF MESOSCALE FEATURES.

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE THAT IS
LOCATED AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS CHARGING INTO WESTERN
OHIO AS OF 11Z. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT BEGAN OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI LAST NIGHT. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF HEATING SHOULD LIMIT
THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER BE AWARE THAT LOCALLY HIGHER
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A KMFD TO KCLE
LINE.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DISSIPATING MCS. IF ANY HEATING CAN OCCUR IT WILL HELP TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WENT WITH A VICINITY
THUNDER SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO.

WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS...MAINLY EAST OF
I-71. NON VFR AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
WINDS A BIT MORE FROM THE SOUTH AND SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 15
KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS THIS FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WHICH SHOULD BUILD WAVES TO THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE
THAT REQUIRES A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO WINDS/WAVES THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE NEAR MIDNIGHT SO HAVE RUN THE ADVISORY UNTIL
04Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY
MORNING THEN SLIDE EAST OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN