Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 140248
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
948 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017
High pressure will push quickly east across the central Great
Lakes tonight and Saturday. A weak low pressure system will move
east across the Ohio Valley Saturday and to the east coast by
Saturday evening. Another area of high pressure will build east
into the region Saturday night into Sunday and then off the east
coast by Monday. Low pressure will move northeast into the western
Great Lakes Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Only minor changes to forecast grids with this update. Thinking
remains similar with respect to freezing rain chances south of
US-30 early tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon. Most
model guidance keeps our forecast areas fairly dry, especially
given fairly stout dry layer around 925mb from model soundings,
and even noted on KILN 00Z RAOB. Kept slight chance of freezing
rain in the forecast after 09Z, however gut feeling says
measurable precip is unlikely in our forecast area until 15-18Z
time frame, based on latest HRRR/NAM trends. Even so, any precip
that actually reaches the ground will be very light, and not
currently anticipating any impacts to roadways.
Surface high pressure will dominate much of the forecast area
overnight weatherwise but low pressure will move east into the
Ohio valley late tonight. The storm system is expected to spread
moisture and associated clouds into the forecast area tonight. As
moisture pushes north into the extreme southern tier of the area,
there is the possibility for precipitation to fall from just south
of Findlay across Knox county and possibly southern Stark county.
However, the temperature dewpoint spread will be considerable
enough that there is a good chance that the precipitation will
fall in the form of virga. The other issue is the warm layer above
the surface could keep precipitation liquid and any that does
reach the ground could be as freezing rain. Confidence is low
enough at this time that I will hold off on issuing any advisories
for the freezing rain.
Temperatures will continue to fall slightly this evening but I
anticipate they will slowly level off and possibly rise slightly
toward morning. Raised min temperatures a few degrees due to the
possible warming expected as the high pressure center moves east
of the area.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Nearly zonal flow will take place across the forecast area through
much of the weekend. A quick shot of energy will rotate east
across the Baja of California toward the western Great Lakes by
Tuesday. Another trough of low pressure will dive into the western
half of the country by early next week as well helping to amplify
the ridge over the eastern half of the United States.
Initially, once again, the big question is whether we will see
precipitation during the morning hours Saturday. Concern is
temp/dewpoint spreads will be high enough to keep precipitation in
the form of virga. Any precipitation that does reach the ground
could be a mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Model soundings on
BUFKit will support the mix depending on timing and pockets of
warm and cold air. So, will go with a mix precipitation during the
morning hours. Then, as surface low pressure system moves east of
the Ohio valley, precipitation will go with it during the
More high pressure will build east across the forecast area for
Saturday night into Sunday until the next system begins to affect
the local area Sunday night late into Monday. Low pressure will
lift northeast into the western portions of the Great Lakes and
force a warm front northeast across the area Monday night. The
warm front will set up another overrunning precipitation event
again. This front will bring with it another chance for mixed
precipitation to the forecast area Monday morning transitioning
over to all rain in the afternoon into Monday night. So, will
mention the mixed precipitation changing to rain. Warm air
advection should bring another round of warm air to the forecast
area for Monday and Monday night into the middle of next week.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A rather mild mid winter spell is expected during this period.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be wet but there is some model divergence
in QPF with the ECMWF still being much wetter than the GFS but even
so its QPF appears to be a moderate amount. With saturated soil
conditions presently, we will need to continue to closely monitor
this evolution. Drier air will overspread the region later in the
week with no large cool down expected.
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will continue as high pressure slides east across
the Great Lakes. Patchy MVFR stratocumulus over Lake Erie may
sneak into KTOL early this morning as the boundary flow becomes
easterly but not enough confidence to forecast it in the TAF.
Ceilings will lower somewhat during the early morning hours into
Saturday but remain VFR. Light east winds will switch to WNW
Saturday as weak low pressure slides across the Ohio Valley.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Monday through Wednesday.
High pressure will drift eastward across Ontario tonight with winds
becoming easterly. Winds may increase briefly to 10-15 knots. A weak
trough will sag across the lake Saturday night with another surge of
cooler air expected as high pressure reestablishes itself over the
central Great Lakes on Sunday. The high will shift off the East
Coast by Monday afternoon. We will then monitor the approach of low
pressure from the Southern Plains. Southerly winds will increase by
Monday night as the low reaches the central Great Lakes. A cold
front will cross the lake on Tuesday with winds shifting to the
west. Small craft advisories are expected at some point Monday and
then continue into Tuesday.