296
FXUS61 KCLE 081717
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
117 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the Great Lakes today as a cold front
becomes stationary over the Ohio Valley region. This front lifts
back north as a warm front Wednesday as a trough of low pressure
crosses the Great Lakes before settling back south as a cold
front Wednesday night as high pressure returns to the Great
Lakes. The front will continue to waver north and south through
the weekend as weak waves of low pressure ripple along it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front continues to settle south early this morning,
with dew points slowly falling into the low to mid 60s. Stubborn
light showers and areas of mist/drizzle are continuing in
response to the weak mid-level trough axis passing overhead and
lingering low-level moisture, so increased PoPs slightly before
sunrise. After 10 or 11Z, the drier air will finally win out to
allow for leftover drizzle/mist to end. This will set up a very
nice day today as surface high pressure builds down into the
Great Lakes. Lingering clouds this morning will scatter out
this afternoon as the high takes control, and expect cooler
highs in the low 80s with dew points staying in the more
tolerable low to mid 60s.

The quieter weather does not last long as the surface high
weakens tonight in response to a rather strong mid/upper trough
dropping into the northern Great Lakes. This will cause the
old frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley to start to lift back
north as a warm front. The boundary looks to make it as far
north as the lakeshore or over Lake Erie Wednesday, and as the
mid/upper trough axis progresses into the eastern Great Lakes by
Wednesday night, it will push the boundary back southward.
Increasing warm/moist/theta e advection and isentropic ascent
as the boundary lifts north late tonight will likely trigger
some scattered showers and thunderstorms, so increased PoPs
slightly above NBM in NW and north central Ohio before sunrise.
The bulk of the convection will occur Wednesday afternoon and
evening as diurnal instability interacts with increasing
synoptic support as the mid/upper trough axis slides just north
of the region. A belt of seasonably strong 50-55 knot westerly
mid-level flow rounding the base of the trough axis will lead
to near 30 knots of deep layer bulk shear Wednesday afternoon
and evening, especially near Lake Erie, and this combined with
MLCAPE increasing to at least 1000 J/Kg will support loosely
organized multicell clusters. We are not currently outlooked for
any severe weather at this time, but would not be surprised to
see a few severe storms with damaging winds to 60 mph,
especially given what looks to be fairly dry mid-levels to boost
DCAPE. Additionally, the frontal boundary aligned mostly
parallel to the mid-level flow and juicy airmass (PWATS back
over 1.50 inches and deep warm cloud layers) will support
locally heavy rainfall rates and training convection.

High temperatures Wednesday will warm back into the low to mid
80s as dew points increase back to around 70 after lows Tuesday
night in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The front will settle back south as a cold front Wednesday night
behind the departing mid/upper trough axis. Weak high pressure
will attempt to return to the Great Lakes Wednesday night and
Thursday, but the front will likely not make it much past the US
30 corridor. This will keep a warm and humid airmass in place,
with chances for convection continuing, especially in southern
areas. Allowed PoPs to gradually dry out Wednesday night, but
kept chances for Thursday given diurnal heating and the boundary
nearby. Lakeshore areas will probably stay dry Thursday.
Locally heavy rainfall and isolated strong winds will again
accompany any convection in southern areas Thursday. By Friday
and Friday night, the boundary will slowly lift back north again
in response to a strong mid/upper trough moving into the
northern Plains. This will keep scattered convection in place,
with max coverage during daytime heating Friday. Overall, exact
coverage of convection is low confidence in this weakly forced
pattern, so kept broad brushed NBM PoPs Wednesday night through
Friday night, which gives mainly dry conditions at night and
slight chance to chance PoPs in the afternoons and evenings.

Highs in the low to mid 80s Thursday will warm into the mid to
upper 80s Friday. Lows in the mid to upper 60s Wednesday night
will be slightly cooler Thursday night when low to mid 60s are
expected. Much milder lows in the mid 60s to low 70s are
expected Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The movement of the stubborn frontal boundary is uncertain this
weekend into the start of next week since deterministic and
ensemble guidance differs with how the aforementioned northern
Plains shortwave trough ejects. The boundary will likely remain
somewhere close to the region through Saturday, so NBM PoPs for
convection look reasonable. These PoPs may end up higher or
lower depending on how the upstream trough potentially interacts
with the boundary. By Sunday and Monday, confidence is starting
to increase that broad and flat mid/upper ridging will start to
build over the central and eastern CONUS as a Bermuda High
strengthens near the Southeast U.S. coast. This could eventually
support an even warmer and drier forecast than current NBM
guidance, but for now, expect temperatures to mainly continue in
the mid to upper 80s with periodic convection, especially in the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Generally expect VFR conditions with scattered diurnal cumulus
through this afternoon and mostly clear skies tonight. There
may be some patchy fog and lower stratus across interior eastern
Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania overnight, but as of now it
appears that the majority of the fog/stratus will be to the
southeast of TAF sites. Additional diurnal cumulus will develop
by Wednesday afternoon and scattered showers/thunderstorms will
likely begin to develop across NW OH towards the end of the TAF
period. With that being said, confidence in the placement,
coverage, and overall likelihood of thunderstorms prior to 18Z
is quite low so have omitted thunderstorms from the TAFs with
this update.

Winds will be out of the west/northwest at about 5 to 10 knots
this afternoon before becoming light and variable tonight.
South/southwest winds will develop and increase to 5 to 10 knots
late Wednesday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday with the best chance
during the afternoon each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Overall, good marine conditions are anticipated over the next
several days. Winds will generally be southerly at around 10
knots or less through Wednesday before briefly shifting to the
northwest behind a cold front Thursday. A period of onshore flow
due to a lake breeze is likely on Wednesday afternoon. Variable
and relatively light winds in addition to periods of onshore
flow due to daily lake breezes are favored Thursday afternoon
through Friday with winds becoming more south/southwesterly and
increasing to around 10 knots on Saturday.

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible on the lake
Wednesday through the weekend, best chance during the afternoon
and early evening each day. Winds and waves could be higher in
thunderstorms.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15