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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261737
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY REACHING
SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ACROSS IT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

ALL OF THESE STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING ARE LOW SINCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND THE BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND DYNAMICS
IS LOCATED FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH TO ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO AT LEAST BE
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MCS SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT BUT WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR OUTFLOW THAT TRIES TO MOVE NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM
FRONT. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
WITH A DECENT PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD. OUTFLOW/WARM
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. PINPOINTING ITS
LOCATION NOW IS VERY DIFFICULT WITH UNCERTAINTY OF THE PATH OF THE
SOUTHERN OHIO MCS. IN ANY EVENT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL
BE BACKED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER INTO THE REGION. THE BACKED LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE REGION RAISES
CONCERNS FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR A TORNADO. HOWEVER THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW
FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN OHIO. MAKE SURE TO
HAVE A PLAN IF A TORNADO WATCH IS ISSUED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO
LIKELY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. IT APPEARS IT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY THINGS OUT ENOUGH TO AVOID
SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL OVER THE REGION
AND STILL COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO
AND NW PA.

IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES. COOLER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK TO THE THE 70S WEST...MIDDLE S60S ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOL UPPER TROUGH STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON BUT SCATTERED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 20-21 UTC
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW SO HAVE INCLUDED JUST
VCTS IN TAFS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH
MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06 UTC AND PERSISTING UNTIL 13-14 UTC.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY BY NOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
A COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FROM MFD TO CAK TO YNG.

OUTSIDE OF STORMS SW WINDS 5 TO 12 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN EVENING THRU
MON.

&&

.MARINE...
MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY AND AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT TODAY AND SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WINDS ON THE LAKE VARIABLE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE LAKE
TODAY AND THEN THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE MONDAY. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MET. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...BC