Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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425
FXUS61 KCLE 061133
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
633 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURES
AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
PA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST. IF THIS CAN OCCUR IT
WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW OHIO. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE
TO LIFT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LOW FILLING AS IT TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO AN EAST COAST LOW. IT
WILL LEAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF WEAKER LIFT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE -3 TO -8. THIS MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL IF IT
WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN WE HAVE JUST GONE WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS A CONCERN. IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SEED THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM ABOVE THE REGION COULD END UP WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS YET. WE WILL
LOOK AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THIS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE SNOWBELT WILL THEN
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE
40S. COOLER ON MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40. THE COOL AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AIDING IN DEEPENING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.  THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...SMALL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE
THAT LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES...THIS IS NOT THE PATTERN TO BE IN AS
POLAR JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE TO ALLOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. WE
COULD POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW EXTENSIVE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...PRETTY QUIET.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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