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000
FXUS61 KCLE 282106
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
406 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE AN INCREASE IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SO WITH
THAT SAID THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. WANTED TO
CAPTURE THIS SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY SO STARTED THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SNOWFALL
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FINDLAY TO MEDINA TO EDINBORO. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BOOSTS THE LIFT
OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS MONDAY MORNING IT APPEARS ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT NW OHIO WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MEDINA TO EDINBORO. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MILLERSBURG TO CORRY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE AREA INTO THE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
REACH THE MID 30S THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PRODUCING
A WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHILL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS NW OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON
AND IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A BRIEF WARM UP ON THE WAY WILL BRING RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. IN DOING SO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO WARM. EXPECTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
STORM TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES YET AS MANY OF THE IMPORTANT
FEATURES IMPACTING THIS STORM ARE NOT BEING SAMPLED VERY WELL YET.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

WE WILL HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF REALLY GOOD SNOW MELT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IT IS VERY
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE NEW RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE SNOW PACK DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT HAS AN EFFECT ON RISING RIVERS
AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH MVFR LEVELS UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS. AFTER
THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ARRIVE WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD REACH 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A 5 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW
AT EACH TAF SITE. LESS TIME ACROSS NW OHIO. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING A STRONG INVERSION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THE EAST END OF
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC