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000
FXUS61 KCLE 130215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND SNOW BEGINS TO WIND
DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE
LAST OF THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS...LASTING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO EARLY
SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING SKIES OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THE WINDS ARE DECREASING.
ELSEWHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING...THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE
NEAR 20C. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE LOWS UP. AT THIS TIME THE ONLY
THREAT OF NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WOULD BE NW PA...THIS WILL
BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT WILL QUICKLY FADE TO FLURRIES...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 8AM THU. A MOSTLY ICED OVER LAKE ERIE WILL LIMIT MOISTURE
FLUX...AND LIMITED RETURN MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL GENERALLY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 3 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL PUSH A WEAK
WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT
MUCH MOISTURE OR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WILL THEN SLIDE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LOCATED.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE ERIE COULD ALLOW CLOUDS
TO LINGER ACROSS THE SNOWBELT ON SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN FIGHTING WITH A WAVE ON THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND
THE LATEST RUNS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SAINT PATRICK
DAY SEEMS ON TRACK TO BE COLD. NOT SURE ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SOME OF THE MODELS SO THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS..PERHAPS SOME
LAKE CLOUDS...BUT PROBABLY DRY. HIGHS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS AS WE GET INTO MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ARCTIC HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE SEEMS SOME CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER
FRONT MID WEEK AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL.
THE GFS GETS WARM BY WEDNESDAY BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD BE. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SNOW AND BLSN WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS LEAVING ONLY SCT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
SNOWBELT TO LINGER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING SE
OVER THE AREA SHOULD CAUSE MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THRU 06Z
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR SPOTS MAY LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE
POSSIBLE SHSN.

THE NW WINDS LATER TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THU AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SNOWBELT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY ON LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL COME QUICKLY...CROSSING THE
NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY AND THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE BRISK BUT REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE. YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL REACH THE WESTERN
LAKES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
     089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ010-
     020>023.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/SCHEPEL
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK