Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 200819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FORCING A
WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OUT OF QUEBEC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE BEEN PRETTY BUSY WATCHING STORMS DEVELOP AND DECAY ACROSS
THE AREA. ONE CELL INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY JUST SOUTH OF HOLMES COUNTY
ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORE CELLS WERE APPROACHING
STRONG STATUS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED ATMOSPHERE IS
TRENDING TOWARD A QUIETER PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AS A
TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT. I ANTICIPATE
THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
DAY TIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE
COLD FRONT. SO WILL KEEP A LIKELY POP GOING AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE EVEN THOUGH COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH SINCE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG. WE SHOULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST AS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHAPING UP TO BRING THE FORECAST AREA INTO A
SUMMER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN WAITING TO SEE ALL SUMMER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THEN
DEVELOPS INTO A FULL BLOWN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND.

AFTER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE ACTION UNTIL WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SURGE
OF WARM AIR WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S...ESPECIALLY
WEST. THIS WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND. PLUS...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN THE
AREA AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA...AND A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT ROTATE INTO THE REGION.

THREAT STILL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WEAKENING 1000 TO 500 MB
THICKNESS GRADIENT AND HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS IN PLACE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH APPROACHING 2 INCHES SO
WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINERS.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR
STORMS FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES IN THIS PATTERN. EVEN WET
MACROBURSTS COULD BE A PROBLEM IN THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
THE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE
RULE AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
THREAT IN THE AFTERNOONS.

BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE ENTER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR COOLING...OTHER THAN FROM
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DIFFICULT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE
HOW MUCH JET ENERGY WILL BE PASSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. IT
WILL BE HUMID BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD IT
LOOKS AS IF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.

THIS LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE THE WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER WE HAVE
HAD THIS SUMMER WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AFTER THIS EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION IT APPEARS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 71. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE THE RAIN HAS STOPPED.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 12 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO LAKE ONTARIO
BY THURSDAY. AS IT DOES IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT
UNDER 12 KNOTS. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARM FRONT ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN





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