Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 172033
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
333 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift NE across the area tonight ushering in spring
like conditions. A weak but dry cool front will push south Saturday
night...but temperatures will continue to average roughly 20 degrees
above normal through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Warm front just into just SW of the forecast area will move NE
across the area overnight.  Skies clear out behind the front but a
strong SW flow will keep temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s. This
is a little above the normal highs for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weak but dry cold front will push south across the forecast area
Saturday.  However near-record high temperatures are forecast for
many areas on Saturday:

Location         Forecast   Record (Year)

Cleveland           61         62 (1981)
Akron/Canton        60         60 (1981)
Toledo              60         59 (1961)
Findlay             63         60 (1949/1961)
Mansfield           60         60 (1948/1961)
Youngstown          58         59 (1994/2011)

The remainder of the forecast period will be dry with temps roughly
15 to 20 degrees above normal...as a strong upper level ridge builds
over the Eastern CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some question on the timing of the next shower threat on Tuesday.
Some models are as fast as Tuesday morning while some models are
late in the day Tuesday. Do not want to be too quick considering
that the front seems to arrive Tuesday evening/night. The forecast
will split the difference for now with a "chance" or "slight chance"
by Tuesday afternoon. I am not convinced the front will have much in
the way of rain given that it is a weak Pacific cold front without
much gulf moisture. Will just call it a "chance of showers" for
Tuesday night.

Weak high pressure will build across the area on Wednesday and it
will remain unseasonably warm. A back door cold front will try to
sneak down across the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday but most
indications are that it will stay to the north of the area.

A strong storm system is progged to develop on the plains states and
track toward the Great Lakes by the end of the work week. It may
take until Friday night to get the associated cold front to the
forecast area. Will not try to get very specific 7 days out and will
just have a "chance of showers" in the forecast. Unseasonably warm
weather will persist until the front comes through late in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will continue with varying amounts of high clouds.
Weak warm front over north central Ohio will move northeast of
the area tonight. Ridging at the surface and aloft across the
midwest will spread east across the area. South to southwest
winds will get a bit gusty Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
The gradient on Lake Erie was relatively light east to southeast
with high pressure just to the east of the lake Friday afternoon. A
weak warm front will lift across the lake tonight and the flow will
come around from the south and then the southwest. Winds speeds will
increase on Saturday but given the southwest direction it would seem
the best winds and waves should remain offshore. Not expecting a
small craft advisory on Saturday but conditions may get close to
small craft criteria later Saturday ahead of a weak cold front that
will sag across the lower lakes Saturday evening.

Another weak front will drop across the eastern Great Lakes on
Sunday and the flow will veer to the north and then east early next
week. A spring weather pattern will persist next week. The next weak
cold front is due Tuesday night. East winds will veer to the south
on Tuesday and winds will increase ahead of the cold front.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik


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