Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 241738
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
138 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will remain across the Great Lakes
today and tonight. Sunday a cold front will swing east across
the region. Another cold front will move through on Monday
keeping temperatures below normal into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...Area will be really hard-pressed to see any shower
activity today. That being said, best cumulus development is
across lower MI where a few showers have popped. Have put in a
20 percent chance around the Toledo area for just a few hours
this afternoon.

For today models show a weak surface ridge building in from the
central plains while a second cold front/trough lingers
east/west across the central lakes. An upper low will be
dropping southeast across MN/WI. Increasing moisture is shown
extending into nwrn PA from the northwest during the afternoon
and the HRRR shows convection developing across the thumb of MI
toward the area. Will have partly cloudy skies for the day but
will include a slight chance pop for afternoon extreme
north/northeast. Highs in the upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low moving through MN and WI today will move across
the central lakes on Sunday. A cold front associated with a
developing surface low in the same location will move across
the area during the day. The upper low will move east only to be
replaced by another dropping through the mean upper trough
which will persist across the area. This second upper low will
move through the area late Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday surface
high pressure from the plains will build across the Ohio Valley
as an upper ridge moves through. Will need low chance pops north
central/northeast on Sunday when the front moves through and
where moisture is best. Monday into early Tuesday the second
upper trough moves through with ample moisture for showers. Will
have high chance to likely pops in place. Wednesday should be a
dry day with building high pressure. Temps well below normal
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure over the area Wednesday into Wednesday
night will bring dry and seasonable conditions throughout the CWA.

By early Thursday morning a low will be moving eastward across the
far northern Great Lakes into Canada. This will bring a cold front
south across the area Thursday afternoon. This will mean a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. The front will stall somewhere in the
vicinity Friday, which will mean a continued chance for showers and
storms.

Warmer temperatures are in store for the middle and latter part of
next week with highs generally in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Starting to see SCT-BKN cumulus clouds forming. Not going to
forecast any precip but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out.
Expect the cumulus to dissipate toward 00z. Westerly winds will
continue to gust to around 20 knots this afternoon but will
diminish after 00z.

OUTLOOK...Chance of brief MVFR in showers Sunday into Monday
with a cold front and trough aloft.

&&

.MARINE...
A westerly flow will continue across the lake through the weekend
and into early next week. Winds will increase a bit this afternoon,
but no Small Craft Advisory conditions are forecast. A cold front
will cross the lake Tuesday with a return to northwest flow. A ridge
will follow Tuesday night with the flow finally returning to a
southerly direction for Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Mottice



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