Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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876
FXUS61 KCLE 142308
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
608 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
a trough of low pressure over the Ohio valley will move off the
Mid Atlantic Coast tonight...as high pressure centered over the
Central Plains moves east.  The high will slide east across the
Great Lakes and move off the East Coast Monday.   This will allow
low pressure to track across Lake Superior Tuesday...dragging a
cold front across the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Radar indicates that all of the precipitation has moved south of
the CWA. However there is still enough low level moisture and
weak lift to cause some patchy drizzle, especially where the fog
can remain the thickest. This appears that it will be mainly
across Knox county. The drizzle looks as if it will cause minimal
impact with ODOT road temperatures in the middle 30s. So with all
that said we will allow the Freezing Rain Advisory to expire.

Otherwise we have made only minor changes to cloud cover and
temperatures to reflect current trends.

previous discussion...
For the Overnight, a trough over WV will move east and move off
the Mid Atlantic Coast as high pressure nudges in from the West.
Clearing has already made it into Central Michigan, but still not
sure if entire area will clear out overnight. So bumped up
overnight temps a degree or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Models in reasonable agreement tracking large high currently over
the Central Plains...across the Great Lakes this weekend. This
will force the boundary near the Ohio river south, taking all
precip with it for the remainder of the weekend. The high will
shift east of the forecast area Sunday night allowing a brief
warmup. The high will move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday
morning. A warm front lifts into SW OH Monday afternoon, but
there is still doubt as how much precip will actually make it into
the area on Monday, so went low chance pops over the SWRN half of
the forecast area for Monday.

Monday night into Tuesday will be wet with above normal temps. Warm
front will lift north across the forecast area Monday night
finally tapping into some gulf moisture. Strong low pressure will
track NE across Lake Superior on Tuesday, with the trailing cold
front moving across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. Rain will
begin Monday night and continue on and off through Tuesday night.
right now models showing widespread .5 to 1 inch QPF for 36 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models struggling to resolve details during the mid-week time frame
as energy from the northern and southern stream interact. The
depiction offered by the 12Z GEM/ECMWF seem more reasonable than the
GFS at this time. These models keep the upper level trough a little
more disorganized and elongated back towards the Plains on
Wednesday. This would result in less cold air behind the front as
the more consolidated and stronger trough shown on the GFS would
suggest. Will expect Wednesday to be the coolest day behind the
front but with only chance pops with a few lingering rain or snow
showers in the east. After that low level flow is expected to back
to the southwest with a warming trend getting underway on Thursday.
As the upper trough departs to the east, a high amplitude upper
level ridge will build over the Great Lakes region signaling
well above normal temperatures likely to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Precipitation with the southern storm is beginning to pull out
to the east at this time. Otherwise, MVFR clouds will persist a
few more hours from Findlay to Mansfield. These lower clouds will
eventually exit to the east and expecting VFR conditions the rest
of the night and into tomorrow. Winds should be less than 5 knots
through the entire forecast period all areas.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Monday evening through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Good marine conditions will continue on Lake Erie as high pressure
from the upper Midwest builds overhead on Sunday, then to the east
coast on Monday. Southerly winds will increase to near 15 knots on
Tuesday as a warm front lifts north across the lake. Winds will
increase to near 20 knots on the east half of the lake late Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a cold front sweeps east and winds shift to
the southwest. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the
nearshore waters during this time frame east of Cleveland. High
pressure will return by Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Mullen
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...KEC



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