Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 230753
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
353 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016
High pressure located over the central Great Lakes will remain in
place for Monday before slowly drifting southeast to off the
Carolina coast Wednesday morning. Low pressure centered over the
central United States will extend a warm front over the area on
Wednesday. This low pressure system will then move sluggishly over
the Upper Midwest for the remainder of the week leaving the Ohio
Valley in the warm sector for the end of the week and into the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A large upper level low has become cut-off over the Mid-Atlantic
states, leaving much of the Great Lakes region with a large upper
level ridge aloft. A large area of high pressure has formed over the
central lakes and is well supported by this ridge aloft. This high
will be in place for all of Monday and should allow for a very nice
late Spring day across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The
biggest question for the near term period is how warm will the
temperatures get on Monday. Sky cover will be minimal, along with no
chance of precipitation, so persistence from yesterday seems to
be the low end of how high the temperatures could go. Winds will
be northerly off of the lake, so temps won`t be too far above
normal in coastal areas of northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania, but for western and interior areas of the CWA,
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are not out of the question.
Don`t believe we`ll see an 80 on Monday, but it could be close in
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The beginning of the short term forecast continues with the upper
level ridge overhead and surface high pressure dominating the
region. Large-scale subsidence will continue to squash much in the
way of clouds or convection. Clear skies and light winds will
allow for temperatures to be at or above average for Monday night
and all of Tuesday.
The general pattern then begins to evolve on Wednesday. The first
of several shortwave troughs begins to move through the upper
level pattern over the top of the ridge. Although the upper ridge
will hold for the most part, these shortwaves will allow for some
convection to develop for Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface,
a cold front moving across Canada will mostly miss the area to the
north and east but may extend far enough to enter as a backdoor
cold front on Wednesday, thus gives reason for a slight chance to
chance pops late Tuesday night and the first half of Wednesday.
Give that the front will miss to the north, temperatures on
Wednesday should closely mirror Tuesday`s temperatures.
Meanwhile to the west, low pressure over the central plains will
extend a warm front over the area, arriving later on Wednesday.
This front will probably give the region the best chance of
showers and storms in the short term period, as this front ushers
in warm, moist air from the south. Therefore, have pops to likely
for area at some point Wednesday night or Thursday for the CWA as
the warm front arrives. Late Thursday and into the long term
period, the upper ridge will remain in place and the area will be
in the warm sector allowing for more summer-like temperatures, but
the chance of showers and storms will continue as additional
embedded shortwave troughs aloft move over the upper ridge.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term begins on Friday with models showing an upper ridge
across the region and a surface high in the southeastern states. Low
pressure will be in the central plains. Saturday the upper high
builds further across the area however Sunday the upper high weakens
as a trough moves across the great lakes region. in general this is
a very mild/warm pattern for the area. With the upper ridge in
place through at least Saturday expect plenty of sun although ample
moisture available with flow off the glfmx with also anticipate
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Surface high centered across the region although upper low
pressure over the NC/VA coast keeping mid level moisture just to
our east. This low moves northeast off the coast later today so
believe for the most part moisture will remain east of the area.
Expect light winds and vfr conditions for monday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
Light and variable winds will become more southwest after Tuesday as
high pressure over the lake drifts to the southeast. We could see a
brief backdoor cold front drop across the lake from the northeast
Wednesday night but the front should move north again Thursday.
Winds will remain light at less than 15 knots through the period.