Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191418
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED THE REMAINING PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST AND ADJUSTED CLOUDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.  TEMPS LOOK FINE.

PREVIOUS...JUST A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS NE OH EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLEARING SKIES OVER MI AND NW OH ALREADY. LAKE
CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA...BUT AS WINDS
BACK THIS AFTERNOON THESE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND BECOME
DISCONNECTED FROM THE LAKE. WITH THE CLEARING...NW OH WILL FINALLY
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR HIGHS TODAY WILL
STICK WITH GENERALLY UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S LIKE WE HAD. MAYBE
THE WEST CAN GET A COUPLE MORE DEGREES A SLIGHTLY WARMER START
THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ONLY CHANGES MADE WITH THIS EARLY MORNING
UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK THE SKY COVERAGE FIRST THING THIS MORNING AND
TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS ONE DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE CAN GET PRECIP INTO THE WEST
BEFORE 8AM. OTHERWISE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN OH/NW PA ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY HANGING OUT ON THE EAST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING. UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WILL
GET HUNG UP AS THE LOW ON THE EAST COAST SITS FOR A WHILE. SO WE
WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF DRYING. THEREFORE END THE PRECIP CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

NIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF FROM NORMAL BUT DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS TIME OF YEAR
NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING FAIRLY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.  TO START...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LONG ISLAND WITH A SHARP RIDGE
JUST TO OUR WEST. BOTH AGREE THAT WESTERN OHIO WILL BE CLEAR AND
NWRN PA LIKELY MOSTLY CLOUDY...THE TRANSITION ZONE SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RIDGE BREAKING
IT DOWN. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...A RATHER LARGE HIGH WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL WORK
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ACCORDING TO THE GFS HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS
MOST OF THE RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THE GFS BUILDS
THE RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF CARVES A
TROUGH.  THE 850MB TEMPS FROM THE GFS ARE AROUND +10C WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CLOSER TO +6 TO +8C WITH A GRADIENT DOWN TO +2 IN NWRN PA.
BOTH HOWEVER ARE DRY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE NERN LAKESHORE
AREAS THURSDAY WITH COLD MOIST AIR IN PLACE AND A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
THE LAKE. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT TIMES WITH
BOTH MODELS AGREEING ON FAIRLY DRY AIR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OVERNIGHT ACROSS NWRN AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
IN RESPONSE. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER...EXPECT CIGS TO INITIALLY
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE LAKESHORE...EVENTUALLY PUSHING EAST LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BACKS. THAT SAID...THERE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE BREAKS THAT DEVELOP AS WELL. WILL HOLD ONTO
CIGS AT KCLE THROUGH 14Z-16Z. WILL KEEP CIGS IN KCAK THROUGH 18Z
AND KYNG AND KERI THROUGH 20Z. CONDITIONS HOWEVER MAINLY VFR.
TONIGHT EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY IN IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WITHOUT CHANGE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND THEN SHOULD BACK TO
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHOW AT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES COMES LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUESDAY.  SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
EVENING TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.  THIS SHOULD GET
WAVES TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET TUESDAY...LASTING TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DECREASING TO AROUND 3 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER WINDS INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INCREASING WAVES
TO NEAR 5 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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