Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 191010
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
610 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Lake Superior will shift east of the lakes by
Saturday. Low pressure will move northeast through the upper lakes
by late Sunday pulling a cold front across the area Sunday night
followed by a reinforcing cold front late Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The swly upper flow will cause the surface cold front to stall near
the Ohio river today with overrunning occurring. This will provide
for a slight chance for shra/tsra in the extreme south. However,
some models are hinting that remnants of a MCV may keep a batch of
shra/tsra going that could progress into our western half of the cwa
this afternoon. On average, skies should be partly to mostly cloudy.

Winds turning north will bring cooler air into the area, especially
near the lake with highs from the upper 50s in the snowbelt
lakeshore to the low to mid 70s far south. Thus, there will likely
be little rise in temps today as the cold advection offsets the
normal diurnal temp rise during the midday hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level moisture will continue to spread ne across the area
tonight in the overrunning flow which could result in some light
shra or sprinkles. The low level jet will increase Sat, feeding
better low level moisture into the area. The warmer and more humid
air will allow shra/tsra to spread ne across the cwa which will
continue into Sun night when a cold front will sweep east to end the
threat. Some of the storms could be strong to locally severe.

Temps will warm on on the weekend to be mainly 75 to 80 on Sunday
then cool to mostly be in the 60s on Monday as the next upper level
trough sets up camp over the Great Lakes for a while. There could be
a few instability shra develop Mon aftn and early evening from the
cold air aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next upper level trough will dig into the central Great Lakes on
Tuesday. The cold front associated with this storm system will cross
the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday.  Models then struggle
with the amount of jet energy that will move through tHe Great Lakes
region as northwesterly middle level flow persists. So after the
showers begin Tuesday afternoon/evening it appears we keep them in
the forecast into Friday. Rain chances may end up needing to be
nudged higher beyond Tuesday night but with the uncertainty did not
want to go more than high chance pops.

Tuesday will be the warm day of the long term with southwesterly
flow ahead of the cold front. Highs Tuesday should be near or
slightly above 70. Cooler Wednesday into Thursday with highs in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A few sprinkles/showers persist near and south of a line from
KYNG to KFDY. These may expand in coverage slightly as a cold
front sags slowly southward across the region through sunrise.
Cold front as of 0545Z was located from the western tip of Lake
Ontario to just south of KTOL. Winds shift to the northwest at
8 to 15 knots in the wake of the front. Uncertainty at this time
is how long the MVFR ceilings will last into the morning.
Current thinking is that they will develop for a few hours
starting around sunrise and then persist into late morning.
Ceilings should lift to low end VFR by early afternoon at most
locations. Winds will slowly shift from northwest to northeast
through the day but should not exceed 12 knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers/thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front will be south of Lake Erie by 08Z with winds around to
the NW at all locations. As the high builds across the lake today
winds should remain in the 10 to 15 knot range. This may build waves
to 2 to 4 feet for a brief period of time this afternoon but believe
we will be fine without a small craft advisory. The high moves off
to the east tonight into Saturday as low pressure moves toward the
western Great Lakes. This should help to increase winds to 15 to 20
knots. Since these winds should persist for 12 to 18 hours we should
se waves build for the western 2/3rds of the lake. Will also have to
monitor the water levels on the Western Basin for some shoreline
flooding. Do not expect to see major problems but we may need to go
with a coastal flood watch.

Southwesterly winds will return to the lake by Sunday as a cold
front moves into the area. In the wake of the front winds become
westerly with small craft conditions possible for the eastern half
of the lake Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Mullen



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