Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 302338
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
738 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS FEATURE BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS HAVE BEEN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.
THIS IS CAUSED US TO ISSUE A COUPLE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES. AT THIS POINT THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BUT WE WILL MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOOD STATEMENTS.

THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE CIRCULATION ON
RADAR. WILL LIKELY DROP WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDINA TO HOLMES
COUNTY WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. STILL SOME JET ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE TROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MICHIGAN. THESE AREA NOT AS STRONG BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST PIECE OF JET ENERGY SHOULD PASS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE MAIN FOCUS WITH SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. A LITTLE DRIER SO HAVING A HARD TIME
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE...MAYBE CHANCE ACROSS NW PA AND EXTREME
NE OHIO.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENTUALLY BEING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRIER FOR THE REGION AND NO NEW
RAINFALL.

MIDDLE 70S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMER ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS INT EH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT WILL BE IN THE SOUTH. A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE PASSING OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...SO WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC...KEPT POPS LOW. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN
THE EC TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE...AND KEEPS THINGS DRY
THROUGH SUN. THE EC PUSHES IN THE NEXT TROUGH MUCH FASTER...AND
DEFLECTS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS GOING WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/THUNDER INTO SUN NIGHT. BEYOND THIS POINT
THE MODELS DIVERGE BIG TIME. THE EC SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM A LOW AT 500 MB...WITH THE MAIN AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS. IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT
PATTERN...THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE EC INSTEAD OF THE
DRIER/SLOWER GFS. HOWEVER...NOT CALLING FOR A WASH OUT. JUST
INCREASED POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 7PM AND
IT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH
ITS PASSAGE OR NEAR MIDNIGHT...WHICH EVER COMES FIRST. SOME MVFR
BEHIND EXITING ROUND OF SHOWERS/TS...BUT LARGELY VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONDITIONS
BECOMING MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT FROM CEILINGS
AND/OR VSBYS. IMPROVEMENT DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR
EXPECTED BY 18Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST
WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH
THE WIND MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS THE LAKE. WED NIGHT THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SE ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE BEHIND THE LOW
WITH WAVE ACTION INCREASING TO NEAR 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE ALONG
NE OH/NW PA BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE
NEAR SHORE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...MAYERS



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