Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 012000
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
400 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SNEAKING UP FROM
CENTRAL OHIO TOWARDS KNOX AND HOLMES COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A LOW POP INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ONLY
A HUNDRETH OR TWO WHERE IT MEASURES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE TRYING TO TIME ANY CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS THAT
MAY OCCUR. NORTHWEST OHIO IS CURRENTLY ON THE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS
DECK BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO APPEAR
OVER THE LAKE AND SOME HOLES MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT SKIES
TO GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP OFF 3-
4 DEGREES IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN...DROPPING MORE QUICKLY WHERE
BREAKS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE 850-500MB LAYER DROPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. WHAT REMAINS OF THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX OUT BY NOON TIME WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE INCREASES TO
10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST TIER OF COUNTIES
WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S. FARTHER INLAND THE EARLY
JUNE SUN WILL WARM MOST AREAS UP TO NEAR 70.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TENNESSEE WILL BE
CARRIED NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A CU FIELD WILL EXPAND NORTH INTO OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. MOISTURE
AND DEWPOINTS BOTH CONTINUE TO CREEP UP ON THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF
THE ACTIVITY SO LEFT POPS IN TO 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...MAINLY
NE OHIO/NW PA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY
REACHING THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AN UPPER S/W WILL DIVE SE TO MERGE WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH ON
FRI INDUCING A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
SO NOT CONFIDENT ON PRECIP THREAT ON SAT SO WILL LET BEST
COLLABORATION DICTATE POPS. ANOTHER S/W DIVES INTO THE STALLED L/W
TROUGH THAT SETS BACK UP OVER THE LAKES SO WILL CARRY SMALL CHC
FOR RAIN SUN AND MON..

WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND UPPER TROUGHING...THINK TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SO WILL ADJUST DOWNWARD SAT THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SO IT LOOKS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS TO
DECREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STUCK OVER THE AREA. WILL
ALLOW TOL TO IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AND SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. NOT
SURE WHETHER FDY WILL MAKE IT TO VFR OR NOT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT
THE EARLIEST. WILL KEEP REST OF SITES MVFR INTO TUE MORNING. MAYBE
TOWARD 18Z ENOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND MIXING WITH BE PRESENT
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY
COME UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT TO
POSSIBLY GET TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST USE
VCSH. THE HRRR MODEL EVEN HAS THE SPRINKLES ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO
LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE SCA AND HIGH SWIM RISK TO END. WINDS MAY PICK BACK UP A
LITTLE MORE BY TUE SO SOME CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SCA WAVES COULD TRY
AND REDEVELOP FOR TUE AND MAYBE TUE NIGHT AS NE WINDS HANG AROUND 15
KNOTS KEEPING WAVES CLOSE TO 4 FEET IN PLACES. WINDS WILL FINALLY
TURN MORE SE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE LATER FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT LEADING TO A NE FLOW SETTING BACK UP WITH MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



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