Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 222324
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
724 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016
High pressure will expand eastward over the area tonight then
move off the east coast on Wednesday. Low pressure is expected to
move out of the plains across the Great Lakes from Wednesday into
Thursday. The associated cold front will move across the area on
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will increase its influence on the region tonight.
The remaining cumulus will decrease in coverage with the setting
sun. Since the air is much drier across the area...winds will
decouple after sunset. The dry air, light winds and nearly clear
skies will allow for a good radiational cooling night. So expect a
cool night with all locations, except the immediate lakeshore,
having temperatures dip into the 50s. Some inland locations may
dip into the upper 40s, especially across inland NW PA.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will gradually shift to the east coast through
Wednesday. This will allow low pressure over the Plains states to
move into the western Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. So with
an increase in low level moisture ahead of the front there will be
increasing chances of thunderstorms. The better chances of
thunderstorms will occur after midnight Wednesday night through
Thursday evening. Still some uncertain about coverage at this
point in time but think chances are good enough to warrant a
Tuesday will be the cool day of the short term with highs within
a few degrees of 80. Warmer and more humid Wednesday into
Thursday with highs back into the middle 80s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models a little faster with the high pressure building in on Friday
so have removed chance pops for Friday morning. After that models
continue to be in good agreement with large area of high pressure
moving slowly across the Great Lakes over the weekend...then
moving off the New England coast late Sunday. This should provide
a dry conditions and nearly seasonal temps. After that models
diverge. GFS moves weak system across area on Monday...while ECMWF
is slower. For now will go with continuity and keep low chance
pops going on Monday.
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions will continue with high pressure drifting overhead
tonight moving to the east on Tuesday. Fair weather cumulus will
return on Tuesday although the cumulus should remain scattered
with no ceilings expected. Winds will become southerly except for
lake breeze wind shifts at KCLE and KERI Tuesday afternoon/evening.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms starting
later Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Quiet conditions on the lake tonight as lake breeze turns to a land
breeze. However...could see some water spouts in the morning...IF
winds are light enough for a convergence line to develop
overnight. Other than that quiet conditions will continue into mid
week. Small craft advisory possible Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as winds turn to the southwest and increase to 15 to 20
knots behind the next front.