Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 211112
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
612 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017
A weak cool front will move across the forecast area late today.
High pressure will remain over through mid week. A low pressure
system will move across the Central Lakes Friday night forcing a
strong cold front across the forecast area. This will signal a
return of winter this weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No significant changes to forecast for the 630 update.
The cold front near the Iowa/Illinois border will continue to move
slowly east. At this rate do not expect it into the Tol area until
mid afternoon. All of the models continue to weaken the system as
it moves east. So have scattered showers developing in the west
this afternoon and moving across the forecast area late this
afternoon into the evening. Since the showers will not reach until
the afternoon and a south flow will develop ahead of the approaching
front expect temps to be in the lower to mid 60s across most of the
forecast area. Although temps 20-25 degrees above normal...does
not appear any records will be broken today as record highs are in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Models push the front slowly south of the forecast area overnight.
Few lingering showers still possible SERN portion of the forecast
area tomorrow morning. Wednesday will remain dry and with temps
warming into the mid to upper 60s.
A weak cold front will sag south and linger near Lake Erie Thursday
into Thursday night. At this point with so much doubt as to exactly
where boundary will set up...will just continue with chance pops.
Best chance for convection will be Friday afternoon and night.
Definite chance of thunderstorms Friday evening as the 850 MB winds
increase to 50 knots ahead of the front. Much colder air behind the
front will drop temps over the weekend to near normal for the end of
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model differences continue especially during the second half of the
long term. At daybreak Saturday strong low pressure will be
somewhere north of the lakes with a surface cold near the area.
Showers will be ongoing but should end from west to east during the
day. After that the models begin to diverge. For Sunday the big
question is how fast high pressure will build in ending the threat
for lake effect. The latest GFS shows a trough swinging across the
top of the ridge while the ECMWF aggressively builds high pressure
in. Will trend with the ECMWF which has been a tad more consistent.
This also means Sunday should be mainly dry. The ECMWF eventually
drops a trough across the area Sunday night while the GFS has a
baroclinic zone setting up across the area with warm air advection
precip. Given the uncertainty will stick with the small chance pops
that were already in the forecast. High pressure should dominate
Monday with better chances for precip just after the period ends.
Temperatures will cool off during the period but will still average
about 5 degrees above normal.
.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions across NRN Ohio and NWRN PA to start with high
pressure aloft across the area. As the upper ridge axis shifts
east into Tuesday moisture will begin to slowly increase.
Tuesday morning a warm front will move east across the area
followed by a weak cold front late in the day. Expect CIGS to
lower to between 5 and 10kft during the afternoon from the
northwest with MVFR conditions likely late northwest as the
cold front moves into the region. After 00z conditions will drop
to MVFR from the northwest along and behind the cold front
advancing across the region. Areas of IFR also possible through
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continuing possibly into Wednesday morning.
Non-VFR will develop again Thursday or Thursday night and
continue at times through Saturday.
Fairly quiet weather will continue on Lake Erie with southerly flow
developing today ahead of a cold front. The front will arrive this
evening and may briefly flip the winds to the west. Southerly flow
will return for midweek and continue till another cold front comes
through on Thursday. Deep low pressure will cross the central Great
Lakes Friday night. Winds will become east and southeast ahead of
the system on Friday with strong southwest winds behind the
associated cold front developing later Friday night and especially
on Saturday. Gale warnings may be needed by Saturday.