Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 031642
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1242 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND THE
LASTEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAVE LOWERED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IS
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY AT MIDDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER CENTRAL OHIO MOVING NORTH BUT THIS MAY ONLY
BE VIRGA. SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER SE INDIANA AND KY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AND BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO STARK BUT ODDS SEEM
LOW. MADE A FEW SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES.






STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION.
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA TODAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KMFD
TO KYNG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOST PLACES TONIGHT. DID TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK


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