Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 162307

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
610 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

High pressure will build east across the southern Great Lakes
overnight, then continuing towards New England. As it departs, low
pressure will track through the Tennessee Valley to the East Coast
Saturday followed by high pressure building into the Ohio Valley on
Sunday. A warm front will lift north across the area on Monday.


Drier air will gradually work into the area ahead of high pressure
building east from the Midwest.

Harder to determine if we will have any visibility issues across
southern portions of the area where we received the heavier rain
last night. Generally we don`t worry about fog when drier air is
advecting in, but given the high ground moisture could see fog or
stratus develop anywhere that breaks in the clouds develop.

As the high moves east on Saturday, the low clouds will drift back
north and attempt to break up. Doubtful if we will see much if any
sun on Saturday due to highs clouds and mid cloud arriving. Raised
low temperatures tonight given the higher amount of cloud cover.

Most of Saturday will be dry despite a wave of low pressure moving
through the Tennessee Valley. Scattered rain/snow showers
expected to develop for a few hours Saturday evening as the
upper level wave moves through, lingering downwind of Lake Erie
a little longer. Deeper moisture strips away quickly so most
areas will just see trace amounts of snow, possibly up to an
inch for inland NW PA.


There is definitely large scale agreement amongst the models in high
amplitude flow with a strong southeast U.S. ridge and a deep western
trough. In between will lie a baroclinic zone that will be tapping
into a deep moisture plume. Again we will have a anomalously high
levels of moisture.  One round of rain accompanies the warm front
northward on Monday.  Differences exist in timing of the cold
frontal passage and have leaned toward the slower ECMWF with what
should be a slow to progress pattern. That keeps the high likelihood
of rain/showers around for Tuesday as well. This system will have
the potential to create flooding concerns. The southwesterly flow
will bring in temperatures well above normal too. For a few days now
MOS guidance is suggesting 70 as far north as CLE for Tuesday.  Have
bumped up temperatures from that trend and the slightly further
westward frontal position.


Models continue to struggle with the location of a cold front that
will eventually move across the region by Wednesday night. Have
leaned a bit more toward the ECMWF in the long term since it
typically handles storm systems moving from the southwestern US
slightly better. In any event there will be very moist air ahead of
the front with locally heavy rainfall likely until the front passes.
High pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front on
Thursday but will likely be short lived. The next wave of low
pressure taking shape over the Southern Plains and moving toward the
region Friday into Saturday.

Wednesday looks like it will be the warm day of the long term with
highs generally in the 50s. However if the rain can hold off into
the afternoon we will need to nudge temperatures up. Cooler on
Thursday with highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Southerly flow returns
by Friday with highs back into the 40s to around 50.


.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Question tonight is how much clearing will take place, and if it
does then how much fog and stratus then tries to develop as lowest
level moisture never gets flushed out of the area due to winds
becoming light. Due to the amount of cirrus that is supposed to move
in during the second half of the night, will not develop as much
stratus and fog as previous forecast, but instead just hint at its
possibility with sct clouds at IFR levels.

Moisture between 5k and 10k ft pushes NE back into the area Sat
ahead of a trough that will move ESE across the area Sat night. A
few sprinkles or light shra of rain or snow could start to develop
by late in the day for mainly the south half of the area.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday night into Sunday and again
Monday and Tuesday.


The northwest flow will further relax on the lake tonight as high
pressure passes overhead. A weak trough will temporarily shift winds
to the west. A prolonged stretch of south/southwest flow will take
place from Sunday night through Tuesday or Wednesday depending on
the timing of a cold frontal passage. This will be accompanied by
another significant warm up. Winds through early next week are
expected to remain under 25 knots.




SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Mullen
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