Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 130451
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1151 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across the southern end of the area will continue to
move south tonight. High pressure over Minnesota early Friday will
pass to the north of the local area by early Saturday. A storm
system will approach the region from the southwest over the
weekend. The low will eventually move over the western Great Lakes
on Tuesday after lifting a warm front across the local area Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
No major changes with this forecast update. Removed patchy drizzle
from the forecast, with dry air quickly moving into the area from
the northwest and visibilities improving. Otherwise, temperature
trends look on track for the overnight. Clearing skies are slow to
work eastward across northern Indiana and southern lower Michigan,
but western areas should see partly cloudy skies by daybreak.

Original discussion...
The surface cold front has just about exited the area. Showers
will continue another hour or two and then should be done. Have
had 2 inch plus rainfall reports in both OH and PA today. Although
the threat for more rain is about over...runoff from earlier rains
continues to make it`s way into rivers and streams. As a
result...additional rises and new flooding remain possible so will
leave the flood watch as is.

Starting to see some breaks in the overcast over IN. BUFKIT
soundings show a persistent inversion through the evening hours so
any clearing will have to wait till after midnight. Even
then...most of it will occur in the west. Cold air advection is
ongoing and forecast lows in the lower 20s seem reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Decent drying conditions are expected the next couple of days as
high pressure builds in from the north. Will likely see at least
partial sunshine all areas on Friday with seasonable temps. The
models continue to hint at precip encroaching from the south on
Friday night. By daybreak Saturday there is chance of light precip
along and south of the U.S. 30 corridor. Given easterly winds and
temps in the 20s...any precip that does make it this far north
could fall as mixed precip...specifically freezing rain. It`s
often tough to overcome dry easterly winds at the surface here so
will keep minimal pops in the south for the time being. There will
be more concern south of the area for the wintry mix. The high
wins out by Saturday evening pushing what precip there may be left back
to the south. Sunday also appears dry and maybe just a tad warmer
than Saturday. Precip chances again will increase Sunday night as low
pressure heads northeast out of the Plains. We could again see
mixed precip overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A wet pattern will continue over the extended period. A quasi-
stationary frontal boundary over the Ohio River Valley will lift
north as a warm front on Monday.  A surface low pressure center over
the Mississippi Valley will move to the west of the forecast area
through Tuesday. A strong moist southerly flow is expected Monday
through Tuesday as this system develops. Showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms are possible for the early part of next week.  I will
keep high probabilities of rain both Monday and Tuesday with the
most significant chances on Tuesday. Another storm system will move
into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday into Thursday. This will keep
scattered precipitation chances into the later part of the week.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period and may
reach the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure will continue to move east across the lower Great
Lakes on Friday. Clearing will spread across the area during the
early morning hours with the remaining ceilings gradually
improving to VFR this morning. Winds will veer from light west to
light northeast by the end of Friday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday through Saturday night and
again Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will allow the small craft on the western basin to end at 4pm as
As the cold front moves east of the lake this evening, high pressure
will build over the region.  Winds will become northwest overnight
10 to 15 knots and remain through most of Friday.  As the high
pressure center shifts to the east Friday night, winds will shift to
the northeast. A light northeast to variable flow is expected
Saturday through Sunday.  A southerly flow will return to Lake Erie
for the early part of next week as a storm system develops to the
west.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Garnet
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Garnet



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