Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 292327
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
627 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOULD SWITCH TO SNOW WITHIN THE HOUR. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE KTOL AREA. LIGHT SNOW
IS LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. HAVE
ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPS.

PREVIOUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECTED
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT. THE LAKE IS MOSTLY
ICE COVERED BUT THERE ARE LIKELY THIN AREAS AND BREAKS IN THE ICE
OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN THAT MAY AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW. THE SREF AND SSEO AND OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATE ABOUT
1/3 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER NORTHWEST PA WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEAST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF 2-5
INCHES OF SNOW FOR OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE MAV AFTER EXAMINING THE CURRENT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND FARTHER NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FEATURE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF SO CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER HIGH. THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT
WITH ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
ROUTE 30. WILL USE MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OFF COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWS DROPPING BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT PIVOTS BACK
INTO CANADA. SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY AS A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD
AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY 850 TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -20C...FILTERS IN
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST AT THIS TIME. WRAP
AROUND RAIN/SLEET/SNOW CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WILL GRADUALLY
EXIT OUT TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION. LOW CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AND WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO EASTERN LAKE ERIE AT THE TIME
OF THIS ISSUANCE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS GOING TO SHIFT WINDS FROM
SW TO WNW FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AROUND 20 TO 25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KT FOR A FEW HOURS. THE COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLUSTERY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK AND
DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT. FOR SUNDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTING A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE ICE FLOES OR AT LEAST CAUSE ISSUES WITH
ANY CHANNELS CREATED BY THE ICE CUTTERS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012>014-
     023-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...JAMISON








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