Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 260732
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
332 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
A stationary front just south of the local area will move north
today. Low pressure over Missouri will drift slowly northeast to
Lake Huron by tonight. The low will force a trough of low
pressure to move east across the region this afternoon. Another
area of low pressure will move slowly northeast to the Ohio
Valley region by Tuesday and to the Delmarva peninsula by
Tuesday night as a ridge of high pressure begins to build south
over the local area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A pretty tough forecast in store for today once again all
because of the stationary front over the region. Indications are
that the front will begin to lift north as a warm front today as
the low pressure over Missouri begins to eject out to the
northeast. That being said, warm air advection will return to
the area once again. Two big factors will play a role in today`s
high temperatures. First of all, how much sun will we get during
the day and second is when will the precipitation arrive with
the trough of low pressure. I anticipate that we will see some
sun breaking through the clouds through the morning hours from
south to north as the warmer air pushes back north. Winds are
expected to increase at 925 MB to 20 to 25 knots and this should
help push the warm air north into the area again. This will
allow temperatures to climb well into the 60s. As the trough
approaches from the west, showers will advance east into the
area. If the showers hold off until the afternoon as expected,
then temperatures could break over the 70 degree mark in most
areas. Will take the middle of the road and go with mainly upper
60s but a bit cooler over Toledo as northeast flow could linger
there a bit longer keeping the cooler air in that area.
Due to the upper level trough axis and surface trough pushing
east into the area today, upper level support and warm air
advection could trigger some thunderstorms across the forecast
area. There is the potential that a few of the storms could
become severe, especially since warm sector is pushing back
north again over the area. Actually and reasonably so, SPC does
have portions of the eastern CWA in a Marginal risk for severe
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Major model differences this morning making this forecast a bit
difficult. So, will lean in the direction of old fashioned
forecasting. Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper level
low pressure system over Missouri finally starting to eject out
to the north. As the low lifts north, it should begin to get
caught up in the upper level jet stream and push to the
northeast. Trough axis extending south from the low will push
east as well and this trend is already evident in the water
vapor. Timing of the trough should put it into the forecast area
by mid day to early afternoon. The trough axis is expected to
push east of the area tonight. The moisture associated with the
trough will exit out to the east. Fair weather will return for
portions of the day on Monday until another wave of low pressure
pushes east into the area. More showers will spread east into
the forecast area Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday
Amplification of the upper level ridge will take place over the
forecast area as another trough digs into the eastern slopes of
the Rockies resulting in low pressure development into Texas.
The upper level ridge will allow surface ridging to build south
across the forecast area Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Mild temperatures still expected over the next few days as polar
jet remains well north of the forecast area. Will stick with
persistence in the temperature department as there will be no
major changes in air mass through this forecast period.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term begins Thursday with the ECMWF and GFS close enough
with correlation to previous runs that yield confidence for the
Thursday forecast. Both models show low pressure in the central
plains, the GFS over ern OK or NERN TX while the ECMWF is centered
more over MO. High pressure will be in Ontario and western Quebec.
Moisture will be increasing across the area through the day as the
low moves northeast. Will therefore increase clouds through the day
and bring in chance pops for showers in the afternoon. From Thursday
night on the models start to look like they belong on different
planets. The differences are too vast to go into in detail but in
general the ECMWF takes the low northeast across the Great Lakes
while the GFS builds the high back across the northern lakes and
shunts the low east off the mid atlantic coast. Will go with the
ECMWF entirely which also agrees with our current forecast and is
also supported by WPC surface fronts/pressure. Thus best chance for
precip will be Thursday night and Friday with likely pops in place.
Saturday will have chance pops for any lingering showers. Temps near
to slightly above normal.
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
IFR CIGS continue at KTOL and just moved out of KERI...otherwise
conditions remain VFR across northern Ohio early today. Through
daybreak guidance continues to insist on IFR and LIFR across
much of the area. The HRRR however maintains VFR CIGS as stalled
front turns warm and moves north across the area. For KTOL will
bring CIGS up to VFR by 09z although will leave restrictions in
through the overnight hours given proximity of moisture. Same
for KFDY. Further east favor more of a VFR forecast until rain
moves in beginning about 14-15Z at KMFD and 18-21Z KCLE KCAK and
KYNG. Brought precip into KERI after 22Z. Could also see a few
thunderstorms in the area as well mainly in the afternoon. Best
instability will come after 20Z or so FDY to MFD based on LI`s.
OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR much of the time late Sunday into
Tue then again by Thu.
Will continue with the small craft advisory as is for now. Models
do take winds and waves down through the second half of the night
and into Sunday morning as expected but current winds remain gusty
into the 20 to 25 knot range and waves from the buoy off
Cleveland was near 7 feet. For the late morning and afternoon
winds will veer to the southeast and decrease to 10 to 15 knots
as weakening low pressure moves from Missouri to Lake Michigan.
The low will continue northeast across the lakes tonight turning
winds southwest by Monday morning behind a weak frontal system.
Another low will follow, this one crossing Lake Erie early
Tuesday morning. Ahead of the low on Monday, the front will
waffle north across the lake. The front will then drop back
south across the lake behind the low on Tuesday. Canadian high
pressure will build south across the lake Wednesday and
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for