Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 150514
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
114 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
SEEN SNEAKING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATELLITE MAY RESULT IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA AT TIMES. BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TONIGHT. DEW POINTS CAME
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AFTER SUNSET AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 44-47
DEGREES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S IT MAY BE HARD TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP TOO FAR INTO THE 30S. TWEAKED MINS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME AREAS BUT GENERALLY DID NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST TOO
MUCH. ISOLATED FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOPED LAST NIGHT
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE ADDITION OF LAKE
ERIE MOISTURE AIDED IN THAT PROCESS AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SO LESS CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
THERE WERE ALSO MID CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE MID
CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER OUTLYING
AREAS OF EXTREME INLAND NE OH/NW PA. WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. LOWS ELSEWHERE
NEAR GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE (40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE BIT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PRECIP ARRIVES. DRY AIR WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BUT ONCE IT
BEGINS EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH FAVORABLE LIFT AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. YOU END UP WITH A SQUEEZE PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS EXPANDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEGIN TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THICKEN...STILL BELOW NORMAL AND ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS WE
WILL SEE THIS WEEK.

THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY TO END THE THREAT. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN
ACROSS NW OHIO...NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH SUNSHINE NE OH/NW PA.
HIGHS INT EH LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

CHILLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR WE MAY HAVE TO MENTION ISOLATED
FROST AGAIN. NOT SURE IF THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY.  AS HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.   BOTH MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH TIMING SIMILAR THE TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT AS WELL LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE RAIN AND MIST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION POST FRONT IN THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET ON THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH SHIFTING EAST ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT NNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION...WAVES WILL BE APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. MENTIONED IN
THE NEARSHORE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA





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