Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 210949
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
449 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PUT AN
END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. A WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING PUTS AND END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

IN THE MEANTIME A WELL-DEVELOPED BAND STRETCHING FROM THE ISLANDS
ACROSS NORTHERN LORAIN COUNTY...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CUYAHOGA...AND INTO NORTHERN SUMMIT COUNTY HAD PROMPTED LAKE
EFFECT ADVISORY AND WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS MORNING. AT 2 AM
THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THAT BAND.
RECENTLY THE BAND HAS WEAKENED AND LOST ITS CONNECTION BACK AS
FAR AS THE ISLANDS. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT...LIGHTER MULTIBANDS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER BURSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS IS. REALLY NOT EXPECTING NEW WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...BUT RATHER A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TRENDS WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...RIDGING
AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AND A BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT TO TAPER
AND END SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AND WILL START THE
SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE REALM OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 20S ONE MORE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT MOST A FEW FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS NW PA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING. ALL OTHERS WILL BE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THICKEN TOWARD MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY IF MOISTURE/OVERRUNNING ARRIVES BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE TIME TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY EXPECT ALL PLACE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL
RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND IF NOT ON A FEW OCCASIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO AROUND 978MB NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD BE MUCH STRONGER ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKESHORE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS ROBUST SYSTEM CURLS NORTH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN NE OHIO. GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY ALL THE WHILE STAYING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF SNOW STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF KCLE TO NEAR KYNG.
THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. WESTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z ALL AREAS. WINDS HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO DIMINISH WITH GUSTINESS NOW OVER ONLY THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA. SUSPECT WINDS ALL AREAS TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS BY
DAYBREAK. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE TIME SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE AS WATER SLOSHED BACK. WATER LEVELS WILL DECREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK...RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK THROUGH 10 AM...AND ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012-013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ010.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>144.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
     146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC




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