Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251117
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
717 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PULL BACK TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES FOR A FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TO
THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
OHIO. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP YESTERDAYS BY A COUPLE/FEW
DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THE MUGGINESS MAKING IT FEEL CLOSER TO
90/LOWER 90S FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF
AFTERNOON CUMULUS. UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY PROHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS/TS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND COME ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. QUESTION BECOMES WHEN DOES THE FIRST THREAT OF
SHRA/TS MAKE ITS WAY INTO NW OH. MAY HAVE SOME CONVECTION MAKE ITS
WAY INTO TOLEDO DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES DO
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW SCATTERED SHOWERS/TS
COULD BE SUPPORTED BY THIS FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING NOT OPTIMAL. THE
WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND 90 IS
FORECAST FOR TOL/FDY FOR TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA CREATING HEAT INDICIES THAT WILL BE REACHING THE MID
90S. THIS IS NOT SOMETHING WE HAVE SEEN MUCH AT ALL THIS SUMMER.

WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FAIRLY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...HAVE PUSHED ANY
PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH. HAVE GONE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY A GRADUAL COOLING/CAA WITH THE FRONT. COOLER
FOR THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE HIGH WILL HAVE PUSHED TO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK BY FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL OHIO. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE INCREASED LIFT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL ONCE AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
OR SOUTHERN OHIO. SO WITH THE CLOSE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT IT LOOKS AS IF THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS KEPT MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS AWAY
FROM EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP THROUGH
SUNRISE. BELIEVE THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PATCHY AND ALSO BRIEF.

OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP BY MID MORNING IN
THE 3000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKE. MOST LOCATIONS FROM KTOL
TO KCLE TO KERI WILL SEE AN ONSHORE FLOW BY MID AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
LAKESHORE BY THE AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD AT MOST BE AROUND 10
KNOTS. A COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE
LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15
KNOTS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE LONGER
FETCH WILL MAKE FOR A CHOPPY LAKE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN





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