Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 192300
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Low pressure will track across SE Ohio Thursday afternoon and reach
central Pennsylvania Thursday night. Much colder air will spill
across the forecast area in the wake of the storm system setting
up lake effect showers in the snowbelt into Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Showers continue to move east toward the western portions of the
forecast area in advance of the next low pressure system. Warm
front is currently over the Ohio River and is expected to lift
north across the forecast area by Thursday morning. Moisture
associated with the storm system will ride up and over the warm
front and produce some periods of rain across the forecast area
overnight. Will need to take a much closer look at low
temperatures overnight. Gut feeling is they are forecast way too
low. As the warm front lifts north, I don`t see any reason why
temperatures will fall. Plus, with clouds in place temperatures
will probably not drop much through the night. So, will make
adjustments with the next update depending on how things progress
over next couple hours.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The short term is wet and much colder. Models a little further
north with the track of the low than yesterday. Models track the
low across SERN Ohio tomorrow morning...to near Pittsburgh by
early afternoon. A surge of moisture ahead of the low will help
feed the showers. expect convection north of the low as it tracks
across Ohio...but there is still some doubt as to how far north
the convection will reach. Continued with isolated tsra south of a
Marion to Warren line. The low tracks into Central Pa by Thursday
evening. However...showers in the East will continue to be fed
Thursday night into Friday by lift from a 120 knot jet at 300mb
that will track across the Eastern Great Lakes. At this time still
looking like a widespread 1-2 inches across the forecast area for
the event...with the heavier amounts in the east.
Much colder air will spill across the forecast area behind the storm
system setting up lake effect showers across the snowbelt. The
850mb temps will dip to 2 to 3c by daybreak Friday...and plunge to
-2 to -3c Saturday. With a lake to 850mb differential reaching 20c
and plenty of low level moisture expect Lake effect showers across
the snowbelt Friday night into Saturday. Potential for a little
snow along the ridges Saturday morning...but for now will not
mention the s word. Expect the coldest temps of the season thus
far with highs Saturday in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term begins on Sunday with the models showing a broad upper
ridge across the nation`s mid section and a closed upper low over
Maine/Quebec region. At the surface, high pressure will be extending
into Ohio from the south. The GFS tries to develop a short wave and
drop it southeast across the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday
but the ECMWF is not as strong with the feature. Even so...models
also keep most of the impact north and east of the area so will
largely ignore. There will however be a cold front that drops across
the region likely on Monday but again, impact outside of NERN OH and
NWRN PA should be minimal with potential precip mainly in the lake
effect areas with the cold air across the lake. Dry air and high
pressure build in from the NW Monday night and early Tuesday.
Return flow Tuesday night into Wednesday could bring a few showers
back to the region but much of the impact appears to be confined to
areas north and west of the region. Rain chances improve Wednesday
night into Thursday as more moisture out of the GLFMX moves
into the area. Highs within a few degrees of normal each day.
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
High pressure and dry air across the region today will move east
this evening and overnight as low pressure moves northeast across
the Lower Ohio Valley. Have MVFR CIGS and VSBYS moving northeast
into the area after 06z with conditions reaching the KCLE area
roughly 08-10z time frame and KERI 10-12z. Conditions will quickly
drop to IFR. Indications are that conditions will remain between
MVFR and IFR through the day and beyond.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continuing through Thursday night...lifting from
the west briefly Friday before dropping back to Non-VFR Friday
night. Non- VFR possible northeast OH and northwest PA Saturday
Low pressure will move into the Lower Ohio Valley tonight and early
Thursday and then reach Central PA during the afternoon. Light
winds this evening will turn northeast overnight and increase to 10
to 15 knots by morning. Winds will back to almost North during the
afternoon increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A small craft advisory will
likely be needed by mid/late afternoon. Winds will continue to back
slowly to northwest by Friday and continue at 15 to 25 knots through
at least Saturday night as the deepening low moves east and high
pressure builds in from the west. Sunday expect winds to back to
west and diminish to 10 to 15 knots as high pressure extends onto
the lake from the south.