Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 241007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
607 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

A dissipating cold front will move southeast across the area tonight
into monday then high pressure spreads over the region tuesday into
thursday before weakening. A low is expected to move out of the
plains and across ohio friday into saturday.


The convective complex just w of the cwa has weaken as expected. The
question is how far east will the leftover vort be before daytime
heating causes new convection to develop. Also, how much new
convection will develop with the vort as it heads east into air that
is not as warm and unstable.

This may lead to a lot of the cwa seeing little rain but a lot of
leftover debris clouds which would limit daytime heating thus
affecting how much new development occurs with daytime heating and
whether we still need the heat advisory. Generally agree with
ongoing pops that mainly run 50% or less and qpf mostly a quarter of
an inch or less. There is a marginal risk for a severe storm.

As mentioned previously...highs today will be tricky due to
uncertainty with how long debris clouds with hang on from initial
convective system. Have decided to still let highs get into the
lower 90s for all but the far ne. With dewpoints into the lower 70s
still have heat index values getting around 100 for the current
advisory area as well as the sw part of stark co. Based on
collaboration will add stark co into the heat advisory and
reluctantly leave rest of heat advisory still going.


Slow moving, dissipating cold front probably won`t move se of the
cwa until mon eve which will keep a good threat of shra/tsra going
for much of the cwa tonight then for mainly the se half by mon
afternoon and finally tapering off in the far se during mon evening.
Temps mon should be a little cooler do to widespread cloudiness then
lows mon night should finally back down into the 60s for all but the
immediate lakeshore.

High pressure builds over the region to produce dry conditions for
tue and tue night with temps a little above normal.


High pressure will weaken by Thursday as the next upper level trough
approaches. It appears that there will be a frontal boundary stalled
near the area with chances for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
through the weekend. Each piece of jet energy moving through the
trough will be able to enhance convective development but do not
trust the timing of this at this point. Chances of a significant
rainfall for portions of the area are definitely on the increase.

Seasonal temperatures are anticipated through the long term period.


.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High level cloud cover will continue to spill across the region
from the west as the MCS weakens over Michigan and Indiana. VFR
conditions are expected until some fog develops toward sunrise.
There could be some patchy IFR, especially at KCAK and maybe KMFD.
Warm temperatures and a lack of significant moisture at the middle
levels of the atmosphere will have impacts on the convective
development this afternoon. Unless an outflow boundary from this
mornings convection over Indiana can sneak into northern Ohio it
will be very difficult to see thunderstorm initiation. So with
that said we have kept the thunder from all the TAF sites through
the day. As a weak cold front approaches tonight into Monday
morning there could be some thunderstorms. Have placed a vicinity
thunder at KTOL around 05Z to cover this potential.

Winds will be mostly from the southwest this afternoon except for
along the lakeshore where some onshore flow is anticipated. The
lake breeze will likely only impact KCLE, KCGF and KERI.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible late Sunday night into Monday in
thunderstorms. Non-VFR fog/mist possible each morning.


High pressure will begin to lose its influence on Lake Erie today as
it moves eastward. Lake breeze should be able to develop from
Cleveland to Erie today but the southwesterly flow should increase
across the western basin. Still does not look like it will be much
above 10 knots away from any thunder that can develop. Southwest
winds will become westerly in the wake of a cold front that will
cross the lake early Monday. High pressure will then settle back
over the central Great Lakes with light winds expected into


OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Ohz003-006>011-


LONG TERM...Mullen
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