Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 161403
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
903 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers will taper off across northeast Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania later this morning into early this
afternoon. High pressure will move in from the west this
afternoon bringing clearing skies and seasonable temperatures.
A warm front will move north through the area Thursday night
into Friday bringing well above normal temperatures that will
last through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main update to forecast revolves around rather moderate band of
snow from Lorain down towards Akron/Canton, which models are not
handling well at all. Added a band of cat/likely pops for the
next hour or two in these areas. Also have a more gradual
tapering off of pops as moisture and instability linger a bit
longer. Will continue to hold with the advisory for NW PA
through the next update as snow showers will continue through at
least 21Z.

Original discussion... Scattered lake effect snow showers
continue to affect much of northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania this morning. The intensity has been rapidly
dropping off as the inversion height lowers this morning. Expect
generally light snow showers/flurries to continue through
around sunrise outside of the Snowbelt, with activity gradually
diminishing in the Snowbelt through the early afternoon hours.
An additional 1 to 2 inches of snow can be expected through this
morning where the heaviest bands persist in the Snowbelt.
Elsewhere, a trace to around an inch is possible. The Lake
Effect Snow Advisory for inland Erie and Crawford Counties
remains in effect until 4 PM this afternoon, but will likely be
able to be cancelled early.

High pressure will move in from the west this afternoon meaning
clearing skies for a period of time before high clouds move in.
Western areas will see the best shot at a partly cloudy sky this
afternoon before clouding back up this evening.

A warm front will lift north through the area tonight into
Friday with southwest winds advecting much warmer air into the
region. Temperatures will rise to well above normal on Friday
with highs reaching at least the lower 50s for many locations.
Far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania will struggle to
get to the mid-40s, however, with lingering clouds and
snow cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Much above normal temperatures are expected through the entire
short term period. Temperatures will likely approach 60 degrees
in many areas Saturday, with only a slight cool off on Sunday as
a weak, dry cool front moves through Saturday night. High
pressure will build back in Sunday with highs still generally in
the upper 40s/lower 50s northeast to the upper 50s southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will still be in control of the region on Monday but
it will be shifting to the east with southerly winds developing
Monday night into Tuesday. Will be interesting to see if we can get
a lake breeze to develop with the light surface pressure gradient
and highs warming into the 50s. A few 60s will be possible. If the
lake breeze can develop it will be cooler near the lakeshore.

A weak cold front will move toward the region Tuesday into Tuesday
night but the amount of moisture available to lift is in question.
Will keep a slight chance to chance pop mention in the forecast but
that could be hitting it too hard. We may end up with nothing more
than some isolated showers/sprinkles. Something to watch over the
next few days. It will remain warm on Tuesday with highs in the 50s
to around 60. Slightly cooler on Wednesday in the wake of the weak
front with highs ranging from the 40s to mid 50s. Rain chances are
uncertain with models not in very good agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue across NE OH/NW PA
through the morning tapering off across NW PA this afternoon.
There will be some patchy MVFR/IFR snow showers near and east
of line from KCLE to KCAK. The worst of it will be near KYNG and
KERI. Otherwise the VFR conditions across the west will
gradually spread to all locations by early afternoon. Ceilings
should break across the west before a 10000 foot cloud deck
slides back over the region. These clouds generated by a warm
front that will slowly drift northeast toward Lake Erie into
Friday morning.

OUTLOOK...Some Non-VFR possible Sunday morning across NE OH/NW
PA as lake induced clouds develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will decrease through the day but it will take a little bit of
time for the waves to decrease from Cleveland to Ripley. So with
that said we will keep the small craft advisory going. High pressure
will briefly ridge across the lake this afternoon into tonight. A
warm front will then lift toward the lake by Friday morning but will
probably not cross the lake until late Friday evening. Winds will
shift tot he southwest and increase as the warm front moves
northward. Winds over the open waters will likely increaser to 15 to
25 knots. Will have to watch wave heights from Conneaut to Ripley on
Saturday as they build. A cold front will cross the lake Saturday
evening with winds shifting to the west and northwest. High pressure
will take control of the region on Sunday with light winds
anticipated.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mottice
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Mottice
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Mullen



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