Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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957
FXUS61 KCLE 040858
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY
AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE EAST...THE FIRST BEING THIS
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

NOT REALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE EFFECT BUT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
LIKELY IN THE SNOW BELT TODAY AS SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPS.
SOME SHEAR REMAINS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND I SUSPECT THAT THE SNOW
WILL NOT AMOUNT TO TOO MUCH IN THE SNOWBELT UNLESS SNOW BANDS CAN
PERSIST IN THE SAME AREA FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MENTION
SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST... WITH THE
BEST CHANCE IN ERIE COUNTY PA DUE TO THE WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SOME FLURRIES ELSEWHERE...MAINLY THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY NOT RISE MUCH AND COULD BE
STEADY OR FALL A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA WHERE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN IN THE SNOW BELT AND AREAS ADJACENT TO
THE SNOWBELT. SOME CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH NORTHWEST OHIO.

AS RIDGING INCREASES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL END OR SLIDE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND THERE MAY
BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EVEN IN THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE GFS HAS BEEN FASTER
AND STRONGER WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE MOST OF THE
OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ERIE UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA. IT IS PROBABLY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW BUT
IF THE PRECIP OCCURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS WARM THERE CLOUD BE A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER. WILL EXPAND THE
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NE OH/NW PA BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER IN HANDLING THE MAJOR FEATURE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT BROAD TROUGHINESS WILL SET
UP OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE LOWER 48 STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING. IN
THIS BROAD PATTERN...A DEEP DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY RATHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST DURING THE PERIOD.

THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THEN BEGIN SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST JUST EAST OF DELAWARE BY TUESDAY. SORT OF A DUMBBELL
EFFECT WILL TAKE PLACE AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE
COAST PUSHES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL OUT TO SEA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL HELP TO PUMP IN SOME MOISTURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM.

INITIALLY AS SURFACE LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY...A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW.
THEM...AS LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...A COLD POOL OF AIR WILL
SLIDE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY CHANGING ANY RAIN
OVER TO ALL SNOW. BEST FORCING AND DYNAMICS COULD PUT THE FORECAST
AREA IN AN IDEAL LOCATION FOR THE AREAS FIRST REAL SYNOPTIC STORM
SYSTEM. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL TAKE PLACE IN EARNEST WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO AND WILL
SPREAD INTO NW PA BY 08Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
DRY. AS THE COLDEST AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE
OH/NW PA. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE 19Z OR LATER...MAINLY
IMPACTING THE KERI TAF SITE.

SW TO WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NE OHIO AND NW
PA IN SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
AT THIS TIME...NO MAJOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
GENERALLY...A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS RETURN SUNDAY. AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST A WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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