Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290604
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
204 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE PLAINS
STATES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DRIFTED NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SMALL WAVE RIPPLES EAST. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED A BIT BUT THE
SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED. THE 00UTC SOUNDINGS
SHOW AN INVERSION ABOUT 600 MB AND LITTLE CHANCE OF THE SHOWERS
GETTING MUCH VERTICAL GROWTH BEYOND THAT. THERE IS SOME
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE FOG MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ACROSS NE OH/NW PA OR
PERHAPS GROUND LEVEL STRATUS ON SOME OF THE HILL TOPS.

TWEAKED A FEW OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ALL FORECAST
LOWS FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SE INTO THE AREA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. LINGERING ISOLATED LIGHT
SHRA SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST FRI AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS
PUSHED INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE PASSING OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR SCT AFTERNOON SHRA TO PROBABLY DEVELOP IN
THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH TEMPS REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL AS NE TO N WINDS CONTINUE WHILE
SKIES STAY MAINLY CLOUDY.

FRI NIGHT SHOULD BE A DRY BUT COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BUT DON`T THINK ANY FROST WILL OCCUR.

SAT SHOULD MAINLY START OFF DRY BUT THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL GET
PULLED OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LAKES AS IT OPENS UP IN RESPONSE
TO A TROUGH DIVING SE INTO THE LAKES. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLED NE ACROSS THE CWA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA
QUICKLY SPREADING NE ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUING LATE SAT NIGHT
THRU SUN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
CWA FOR SOME THUNDER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SOME AREAS COULD SEE AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM SO SOME MINOR WATER PONDING ISSUES
COULD START TO OCCUR ALONG WITH SOME RISES IN CREEKS AND SMALLER
RIVERS.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL JUST SHIFTING OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
MON...THE MODELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE THE MOISTURE SO MAYBE ONLY THE
FAR NW MAY BE SPARED FROM LINGERING SHRA SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS SAT AND SUN SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME WARMER
AIR MAY BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE SE COUNTIES FOR A LITTLE WARMER
TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THE LAKESHORE WILL SEE THE
COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BOTH
SAT AND SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY TAKE
CONTROL OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER ON HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM INTERACT
AND TRACK STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. IN ANY EVENT BOTH
MODELS ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR OHIO WHILE MVFR
PREVAILS CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE. CEILINGS AND VISIBLITIES WILL TEND TO
LOWER OVERNIGHT AT MFD/CAK/YNG AND VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW 1
MILE NEAR SUNRISE. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CLE-
CAK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH 10Z WITH SOME PATCHES OF
DRIZZLE LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS NEAR LAKE ERIE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY STARTING TO SCATTER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. NON-VFR RETURNING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS
WILL KEEP NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. STILL MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY A BIT
LONGER FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT IT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SO AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THE WINDS THEY MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>148.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...MULLEN



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