Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301333
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OVER NW PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE HAS
CAUSED SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DRY. IN THE WEST WILL SEE INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP. CHANGED THE WORDING
OVER NW OH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PA BEFORE THEY DEVELOP OVER NE OH
BECAUSE OF SOME EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND USING THE
REASONING THAT NE OH WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE THEN NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE TOUGH. THE MODELS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT IN. BASED
ON THAT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THUS CONTINUED A 30 POP.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASED THE POPS SOME BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NW OH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MANY
AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT THAT MAY CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MEDIOCRE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CANADA BY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE DURATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AND BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MORE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE AIR WILL TRACK
RIGHT UP OUT OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF RETURNS JUST WEST OF FINDLAY THAT
IS DUE TO A LARGE WIND FARM. THIS IS NOT A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
IN PROGRESS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. SAW A SEVERAL DEGREE RISE TAKE PLACE AT CLEVELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING AS WELL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY DESCENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND COULD POSSIBLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





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