Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281019
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
619 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CHICAGO TO
DALLAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING
AIDED BY A 45 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. SINCE THIS LINE IS
DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER THINKING WE HAVE NUDGED THE
TIMING IN THE GRIDS A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER. OTHERWISE MINIMAL
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM CHICAGO TO DALLAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH NW OHIO BY LATE
THIS MORNING THEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH THE PA BORDER BY EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF A
LINE FROM SANDUSKY TO MARION. THE LIMITING FACTOR MAY END UP BEING
THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50+ KNOTS IT WOULD NOT TAKE ALL THAT
STRONG OF AN UPDRAFT TO BE ABLE TO BRING SOME OF THE WIND ENERGY
TO THE SURFACE. SO WITH THAT SAID WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO.

MANY LOCATIONS WILL START THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THIS
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAKE US
BELIEVE THAT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST TOUCH THE 70S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THESE LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S IF THE RAINFALL
CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 01Z. THERE
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR NW PA BUT FOR THE
MOST PART THE REGION WILL BE DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL
THEN MONITOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL MAINLY BE
DIRECTED INTO WESTERN NY. THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY GET NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE
GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
RIDGE INTO THE REGION ENOUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS NW PA THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE WINDS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR
OF AUTUMN WITH 8H TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THIS WILL BRING THE FIRST THREAT OF SNOW TO A DECENT PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE OHIO INTO NW PA. MORE DETAILS ON THIS THROUGH THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. IT WILL THEN GET COOLER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS DIPPING TO 32 DEGREES OR COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG
TERM.  GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW THAN ECMWF...BUT EITHER CASE THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL NUDGE EAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -9C WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT
EAST OF CLEVELAND.  BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS MAY WARM
ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE RAIN TO MIX IN AT SOME LOCATIONS.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT SO END
SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME HOWEVER IF
HAD SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE EAST INTO SUNDAY...AS 850MB RIDGE
DOES NOT MOVE OVER THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GRADUAL WARM UP
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOW PRESSURE SERN WI ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  EXPECT
SW SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE INTO
NW OH BY MID TO LATE MORNING...MOVING INTO NE OHIO BY MID
AFTERNOON. SPC HAS EASTERN HALF OF AREA IN SLIGHT RISK. LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT THE 2K WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON FEEDING TSRA. EXPECT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP AT TAF
SITES. FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY IN THE SNOWBELT. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE WEST BY
THIS EVENING AS STRONG STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE...AND TO 5 TO 7 OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE COLDER AIR.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT TO
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A BRIEF LULL ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY.  HOWEVER
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY.  EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






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