Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 250546

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
146 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

High pressure across the western Great Lakes will ease eastward
through Tuesday night. A warm front associated with low pressure
that will track across Lake Erie will arrive late Wednesday
afternoon with the cold front crossing the area early Thursday
morning. High pressure is briefly over the region Friday with
another cold front crossing on Saturday.


Tweaked clouds for 930 update. Clouds over the Western half of the
forecast area have already dissipated...but think it will take
longer to erode the LE clouds in the East.

Original discussion...
Stratocumulus are taking on more of a cellular look to them.
West and southwestern area are expected to clear out tonight.
Across the east while there will be pockets of clearing
early...the trend for the overnight will be for broken to overcast
skies to return. Scattered lake effect showers have been ongoing
today across northwest PA. There may be a lull tonight...but there
is one more shortwave/vort upstream to make is way across the
eastern Great Lakes tonight. We will have to continue the chance
for showers for the far east snowbelt through the night. Coldest
air aloft arrives tonight. Some of the high res models are veering
the wind enough to bring some showers into Ashtabula county
overnight...and that seems reasonable. Meanwhile the surface high
is just off to our west. Lows tonight will be in the 30s...closer
to 40 near the lake. For those across the south and west that
clear...frost will be possible tonight. Our frost/freeze program
has ended for the season so expect no further advisories or
warnings until spring.


Will taper the precip chances even further through the course of
the day Tuesday as the high/ridge shift east. Lake clouds will
start the day...and take all day to break up. Late in the
afternoon mid/high clouds will begin to spread across the pre
sunset sky. Area will still be cool and expecting highs similar to
what they were today.

Fair weather for Tuesday evening and overnight. Lows could be
quite cool and depend on the amount of sky cover. Areas across the
east when they finally lose their lake clouds...may very well
bottom out near 30/32. Across the west increasing cloud cover
toward morning will keep it a touch warmer.

Models clustering fairly close on tracking surface low pressure
across northern IL to western Lake Erie or southern Ontario by
Thursday morning. Low level jet will pump the warm air northward.
Deeper moisture arrives Thursday late afternoon/evening. Rain
will likely get into northwest OH during the day
Wednesday...spreading east Wednesday evening. Will delay precip
with strong east- southeasterly flow keeping the lower levels dry.
With a good push of relatively warm air...will forecast non
diurnal temperatures.

The remainder of the showers will be moving east Thursday with
temperatures moving little or possibly falling as the cold air
wraps tightly around the backside of the low.


Interesting long term forecast with the first trough aloft lifting
out and another developing. What lake effect showers remain on
Friday should end as ridging develops across the lower Great Lakes.
The models have been relatively consistent in bringing strong warm
advection across the Great Lakes Friday night. Showers would seem
likely but the south southeast wind ahead of these systems can
sometimes be downslope and drier than one would think. Forecast
"likely" pops across northwest Ohio with "chance" elsewhere.

Not sure how much of a break there will be in the showers on
Saturday. The 12Z ECMWF develops a surface low on the front to the
west and is slower with the front (Sat night/Sunday) while the 12Z
GFS drops the cold front quickly across the lower Great Lakes on
Saturday. Tried to split the difference and kept at least a "slight
chance" of showers across NW OH Saturday into Sunday and higher pops
across NE OH and NW PA. Kept the forecast dry by Monday morning as
ridging should develop.

The temperature forecast is lower confidence depending on the timing
and strength of the systems. It will start out chilly on Friday.
Temperatures should peak on Saturday ahead of the front with highs
at least in the upper 50s or lower 60s. Cooler Sunday into Monday
with highs by Monday not far from seasonable normals.


.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure over the western Great Lakes will build overhead on
Tuesday maintaining a northwest to northerly flow off Lake Erie.
VFR lake effect clouds remain at the eastern terminals and a few
light showers will be possible at ERI early this morning. Otherwise,
clouds will scatter out at CLE sometime on Tuesday afternoon.
NW to N flow will become NE late in the taf period. Speeds most of
the time will be under 10 knots. High clouds will overspread the
area tonight. .

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wednesday night and Thursday and again on


The northwest flow will become north and then northeast as high
pressure slides across eastern Canada through Tuesday. Winds and
waves should drop below small craft advisory criteria later tonight
or Tuesday morning but the reprieve may be short lived. Winds will
veer from the east on Wednesday and then the south Wednesday night
ahead of the next low pressure system. The low is expected to cross
the lower lakes by Thursday and winds and waves will increase
Wednesday night and Thursday and a small craft advisory will be
needed. The next low pressure system seems as if it will follow a
similar track by Saturday with only a short lull in the wind likely
later Friday.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for


SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.