Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 211956
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
356 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the east coast will drift south through
friday. This will allow a weak cold front to sag southward across
the central Great Lakes Friday night. A stronger cold front will
arrive Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
For this evening brought categorical pops across much of the area
dropping to likely east third after midnight and chance/slight
chance elsewhere. Also added the mention of severe possible with
damaging winds and frequent lightning with the categorical pops.
Long lived MCS dropping southeast through MI as expected and
times into the Toledo area around 5pm and should reach the
Cleveland area around 8pm. Current HRRR shows the convection should
weaken as it moves southeast into the area which seems reasonable
after mid to late evening however main concern is then
redevelopment to our northwest with a second MCS dropping into
the after after midnight. Will just have to wait for development
to determine potential path into the area. Current HRRR just in
develops new convection in central lower MI and takes it south
through the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued a heat advisory for Friday and Saturday. Concern is how
much convective debris remains across the area from overnight
storms. Also could see development on friday so again...any
convection/cloud cover would prevent heat index from reaching 100.
However am anticipating a good amount of sun and with 850mb temps
in the lower 20s we should get into the 90s. Dewpoints also in the
lower/mid 70s so many places should reach an index of 100. Friday
capes still above 2000 j/kg although most unstable air remains
well to the west. Still...will have chance pops in place as we
should see afternoon/evg storms develop. The cold front dropping
across the lake Friday evening now appears to be slowing into the
area and will pass through early Saturday. Am concerned about the
possibility for convection south half during the day along and
ahead of the front. Will have chance pops in place south. Sunday
the front returns from the west/southwest ahead of an approaching
cold front. The GFS develops convection across the top of the
upper ridge to our northwest so again it would be possible to see
some of this drop into the area so will have chance pops
continuing.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Chance for some lingering showers across the sern portion of the
forecast area Monday morning as the weak front/trough moves east. A
little bit of a break in the heat after that...as another large area
of high pressure will moves East across the the Great Lakes.  The
high shifts east of the lake Tuesday and reaches the East coast
Wednesday.   After that models diverge...GFS moves low across the
Northern lakes Friday dragging a cold front across the area.  ECMWF
on the other hand moves it across the lower lakes.   Either way
chance pops by Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Line of TSRA moving across lower Michigan will intensify this
afternoon and evening. SPC has upgraded northern lakeshore to
slight risk.  Best chance would be the western third to half.
Models continue to show weak front moving across the area late
tonight into tomorrow morning.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non vfr from shra/tsra possible Fri into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Severe potential tonight as line of strong TSRA moving across SE
lower Michigan moves into Western basin of Lake Erie late this
afternoon. Potential for 50-60 kt gusts with stronger storms.  Still
doubts as to how far east the storms will hold together...but best
chances would be west of Mentor.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM EDT Saturday for
     OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>031-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB



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