817
FXUS61 KCLE 100003
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
803 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will track through the eastern
Great Lakes tonight and will drag a weak cold front through the
area by Thursday morning. This front will stall out across the
southern Great Lakes region through the end of the week. By
Saturday, this weak frontal boundary will lift back northward
ahead of a stronger low pressure system that will track through
the Upper Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The main message for this afternoon forecast update is that our
weather pattern will bring more summertime warmth and humid
conditions through this weekend into next next week. The
forecast will also have scattered chances for a few rain
showers and storms off an on over the next 5 to 7 days with
several weak weather systems as well. We will outline those
possible rain chances and the timing throughout this
discussion.

Currently, there is a broad upper level trough over the Great
Lakes region down into the Ohio Valley region that will advance
eastward overnight. At the surface, there is a weak area of low
pressure over Lower Michigan that will track through the eastern
Great Lakes tonight and into Thursday morning. There is also a
weak cold front that is slowly drifting southeastward through
the central and lower Great Lakes this evening and overnight.
South of this weak front, the airmass has plenty of low and mid
level moisture for the development of convection. There are
a couple limiting factors that is not ideal for more coverage of
convection. The wind shear is somewhat weak for organization.
Also the forcing mechanism is also weak to get more focus or
coverage of storms. With that said, there is just enough
instability and moisture to see some scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible through this evening. By sunset or
shortly after, most of the rain chances will fade away into the
late evening hours.

That weak cold front will slide down tonight and stall out
across our area by Thursday morning. This boundary will end up
stalling out near the southern lakeshore of Lake Erie or
northern Ohio into NWPA on Thursday. Along and south of the weak
frontal boundary will be the area that will have the chance for
scattered showers and storms again Thursday afternoon. That
area will generally include south of the Ohio Turnpike into
central Ohio as well as northeast Ohio and NWPA. POPs on
Thursday will be 30 to 40 percent. There severe weather threat
will remain low due to limiting factors but an isolated stronger
storm with gusty winds can`t be ruled out. Due to the slow weak
steering flow, some of these showers and storms may move slowly
and could produce some localized heavy rainfall too. The
convection on Thursday will be mainly diurnal driven and the
POPs will drop off around sunset in the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level pattern will flatten out and become more zonal
with a couple weak mid level disturbances riding along in the
flow Friday into Saturday. That weak boundary will still be
somewhere nearby over the Upper Ohio Valley and lower Great
Lakes on Friday. We will continue to have slight to chance POPs
during the midday and afternoon on Friday, but areas will not
see rainfall. Temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s
over the next couple of days which is near or just a touch above
our seasonal averages for the middle July.

A slightly stronger shortwave trough will track across the
northern Plains region into the western Great Lakes late
Saturday. This mid level shortwave will push the boundary
northward out of our area on Saturday. We will also see a push
of warmer air with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s
and lower 90s Saturday afternoon. Another weak cold front will
make a run down into our area Saturday night with a better setup
for scattered to likely coverage of showers and some storms.
Once again, this cold front may end of slowing down or stalling
out nearby into Sunday which will bring additional chances for
scattered convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The weather pattern and overall expectations going into early
next week will continue with the very warm temperatures and
humidity. Model guidance favors a stalled frontal boundary
possibly near our area or across the Ohio Valley region to start
off the next week. That will also include additional chances for
scattered, diurnal convection. There is some indication that a
upper level ridge may briefly move into the Ohio Valley by
Tuesday or the middle next week with lower rain chances and a
temperatures slightly warmer too.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions are present across the terminals this evening as
the bulk of the rain and thunder is out of the immediate area
and the few remaining cells are missing the terminals. A mix of
low to mid level VFR clouds will filter through the region with
ceilings eventually transitioning to just mid-level clouds or
just some high cirrus. For overnight, there remains some fog
potential for all of the sites except for KCLE and KERI where
the little bit of clouds and south to southeast flow should keep
them in the clear. Some better moisture remains in Northwest
Ohio, where several rounds of scattered showers and storms
occurred earlier today, and this should allow for the
possibility of some IFR conditions at KTOL and KFDY. Elsewhere,
there is less certainty on IFR and have just continued some
variety of MVFR fog mentions.

The front the has plagued the region will return southeast
through the airspace on Thursday and should generate another
round of scattered showers and storms. The best candidates for
any impacts from TS will be KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG and have
mentioned some TS and MVFR potential in a PROB30 group. There is
low confidence on coverage and timing to go with anything higher
at this time.

Winds will be shifting to the south tonight, mainly below 6 kt.
Winds will shift to the west then northwest with the frontal
passing back southeast on Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible late Saturday into Sunday in showers
and thunderstorms as cold front moves east across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
With the exception of thunderstorms this afternoon, winds on
Lake Erie are generally expected to be 10 knots or less through
Friday. Winds may briefly increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift
towards the west late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front moves
across the lake. This could usher in 2 to 3-footers across the
central and eastern basin of Lake Erie Sunday afternoon and
evening. Chances for thunderstorms increase across Lake Erie on
Saturday into Sunday which could usher in some gustier winds.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Kahn