Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191751
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OHIO TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THURSDAY IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A FACTOR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS WESTERN OHIO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FILLING IN ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
WESTERN MICHIGAN...EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARDS
THE MCS IN ILLINOIS. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS YET FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH NORTHWEST OHIO. SLOWED DOWN THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE BIT MORE FOR LATER TODAY AND REMOVED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OHIO. INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING ACROSS INDIANA WITH ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. AT
THIS TIME THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
NW OHIO INTO THIS EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY APPROACHES. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD IS STARTING TO OUTPACE THE CONVECTION THOUGH SO WE WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT EFFECT THAT HAS ON INSTABILITY LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE UPSTREAM
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ONGOING IN AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY WITH A WEAK JET STREAK IN
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 500MB. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY
STEEP ACROSS ILLINOIS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SO COULD SEE THIS
ACTIVITY HOLD TOGETHER AND STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SW MICHIGAN/INDIANA IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING AND IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER COMPLEX
TO THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW OHIO
WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY AFTER 4 PM...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT. NW OHIO REMAINS IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
OHIO TODAY. LIFT OVER THIS BOUNDARY...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 5H 40 KNOT JET WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THEY
MOVE TOWARD NW OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EASTERN
AREAS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP SO THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MINIMAL.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS.
ACTUALLY IT WILL PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING. BEYOND THAT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR THE RAIN TO REACH EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THIS
WEAK FRONT WILL END UP BEING A FACTOR IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED EACH DAY WITH IT POTENTIALLY BEING PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY. SINCE THERE IS SO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WE MAY
BE ABLE TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF FASTER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATES.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS REMAINING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE EASTERN UNITED
STATES BY SATURDAY AND BUILD GRADUALLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT ACTIVE AS SMALL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATE OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECTING SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY. THIS IS ALSO IN
RESPONSE TO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AND THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT. SO...THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION THREAT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS AT...AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT. SOME PLACES IN THE WEST COULD
HIT 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES
OCCUR THE FURTHER EAST ONE GOES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION NOW FROM SRN/CENTRAL LWR MI ACRS SRN LAKE MI INTO NRN
INDIANA. ACTIVITY TIMES INTO NWRN OHIO 22Z-24Z. USING TIMING FROM
THE HRRR AS WELL AS SPC MODELS...CONVECTION TIMES INTO KCLE AROUND
00Z AND KERI/KCAK/YNG 02Z-04Z. OVERNIGHT AFTER THE CONVECTION
EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR IN LOWER CIGS AND MIST/FOG
GIVEN THE ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AFFECTING THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT ON THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THEREFORE TRANSLATE TO WAVES OF
GENERALLY ONE FOOT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY





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