Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 161745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TO MAINE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT AND WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST. WITH THAT HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN SHOWER MENTION FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. MADE TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER WITH THIS MIDDAY
UPDATE ALONG WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS. UPPER 50S WILL
BOOST INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUN. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
VIRTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL REFLECT TO THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES HELPING TO
AMPLIFY THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
MEANWHILE...THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST FORCING
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND THE
MEAN FLOW INCREASES IN THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER
AIR MOVES TOWARD THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

GRADUALLY WARMED TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECIDED TO
GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE BY FRIDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE REST OF THE
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE IN
SHOWING A WEAK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE WESTERN LAKES
WITH A WARM FRONT TO NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST
FRONT THE LOW. AM THINKING WE SHOULD GET A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH THE FOCUS OF ANY WX WEST OF THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA...REACHING NWRN OHIO BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA IN SSW PREFRONTAL
FLOW...WILL BRING A CHANCE POP TO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  SUNDAY
EVENING SHOULD BEGIN WITH SHOWERS EAST BUT FOLLOWING THE ECMWF...IT
SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THE ECMWF SHOWS A RETURNING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FILLING IN ACROSS THE
REGION. WHILE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR 850MB TEMPS OF +2 TO +4C TO
GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. TUESDAY...LIKELY
ENOUGH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO END PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DECK WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR FOG IS LIKELY INLAND NE
OH/NW PA WITH LOCAL IFR FOG AND CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MID MORNING AND SCATTERED VFR FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS LIKELY NE OH/NW PA.

OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.  THURSDAY THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST FORCING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.  THIS SHOULD GET WAVES INCREASING TO AT LEAST
3 FEET CENTRAL AND WEST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BUILDING WAVES TO 4
FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...TK





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