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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
941 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INDUCE
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN SE MI WHICH IS NOW SPREADING INTO LUCAS CO AND
THRU THE CANADIAN WATERS OF THE LAKE. FELL THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MOVES ONTO THE LAKE WILL USE THE EXTRA INSTABILITY FROM THE RELATIVE
LAKE WARMTH OVERNIGHT TO MAINTAIN AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND MAYBE EVEN THE NEXT ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND.
THUS WILL NEED TO CHANGE LITTLE WITH ONGOING FORECAST.

ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SMALL SCALES VORTICITY LOBES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST
MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO WITH STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WEAK INSTABILITY
OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL SHIFT OVER LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR SUNSET BUT LINGER OVER THE LAKE. SO
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT
OVER LAKE ERIE AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLE TO ERI...LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY NEAR THE LAKE.

TOWARD MIDDAY WIDELY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MA/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...OUDEMAN