Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 021123
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
723 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SE THRU
THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AN UPPER S/W MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHRA SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE. BY AFTERNOON....HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD
PUSH ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE LAKESHORE TO END ANY THREAT FOR SHRA
THERE BUT FURTHER INLAND CONCERNED THAT ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW SHRA TO DEVELOP THERE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
LAKESHORE TO 75 TO 78 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...SOME LEFTOVER SHRA MAY STILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH
UNTIL 10 PM BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY PUSHES MORE DRY AIR OVER ALL OF THE CWA.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS KY INTO THE VIRGINIAS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH) TONIGHT AND ON FRI. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PUSHED BACK NORTH FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE SOUTH AND SE ON
FRI. SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON PRECIP FOR FRI WILL ONLY
CARRY A SMALL CHANCE FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...THERE IS GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK S/W`S MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA. WILL KEEP POPS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15% MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SAT BUT LOOK TO WARM TO ALMOST
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  THE HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI TO
NRN/CENTRAL IL.  BELIEVE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS
MONDAY NIGHT WEST BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS SEASONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS RESTRICTING CONDITIONS TO A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR ALTHOUGH KMFD IS LIFR IS FOG. RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. BROUGHT MOST
TERMINALS TO VFR BY 15Z.  OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
FOG/STRATUS BURNOFF FOR TODAY. VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK


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