Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 180454
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1154 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift NE across the area tonight ushering in spring
like conditions. A weak but dry cool front will push south Saturday
night...but temperatures will continue to average roughly 20 degrees
above normal through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Warm front over the SW part of the forecast area will move NE across
the area the rest of the night. High clouds over the far ne have
just about exited the cwa. More patchy cirrus over IN and KY should
start to push in from the SW the latter part of the night. Temps
have initially fallen decently this evening but an increasing SW
flow should hold lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weak but dry cold front will push south across the forecast area
Saturday.  However near-record high temperatures are forecast for
many areas on Saturday:

Location         Forecast   Record (Year)

Cleveland           61         62 (1981)
Akron/Canton        60         60 (1981)
Toledo              60         59 (1961)
Findlay             63         60 (1949/1961)
Mansfield           60         60 (1948/1961)
Youngstown          58         59 (1994/2011)

The remainder of the forecast period will be dry with temps roughly
15 to 20 degrees above normal...as a strong upper level ridge builds
over the Eastern CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some question on the timing of the next shower threat on Tuesday.
Some models are as fast as Tuesday morning while some models are
late in the day Tuesday. Do not want to be too quick considering
that the front seems to arrive Tuesday evening/night. The forecast
will split the difference for now with a "chance" or "slight chance"
by Tuesday afternoon. I am not convinced the front will have much in
the way of rain given that it is a weak Pacific cold front without
much gulf moisture. Will just call it a "chance of showers" for
Tuesday night.

Weak high pressure will build across the area on Wednesday and it
will remain unseasonably warm. A back door cold front will try to
sneak down across the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday but most
indications are that it will stay to the north of the area.

A strong storm system is progged to develop on the plains states and
track toward the Great Lakes by the end of the work week. It may
take until Friday night to get the associated cold front to the
forecast area. Will not try to get very specific 7 days out and will
just have a "chance of showers" in the forecast. Unseasonably warm
weather will persist until the front comes through late in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF cycle with high clouds
thickening on Saturday. A 40-45 knot low level jet near 1500
feet will move overhead through 11Z so have added low level wind
sheer to the forecast. Otherwise southwest winds near 10 knots
through morning will increase with gusts to around 20 knots
after 16Z. The exception is at ERI where the gusty winds have
already started due to the downsloping component.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The gradient on Lake Erie was relatively light east to southeast
with high pressure just to the east of the lake Friday afternoon. A
weak warm front will lift across the lake tonight and the flow will
come around from the south and then the southwest. Winds speeds will
increase on Saturday but given the southwest direction it would seem
the best winds and waves should remain offshore. Not expecting a
small craft advisory on Saturday but conditions may get close to
small craft criteria later Saturday ahead of a weak cold front that
will sag across the lower lakes Saturday evening.

Another weak front will drop across the eastern Great Lakes on
Sunday and the flow will veer to the north and then east early next
week. A spring weather pattern will persist next week. The next weak
cold front is due Tuesday night. East winds will veer to the south
on Tuesday and winds will increase ahead of the cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Kosarik


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