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000
FXUS61 KCLE 100003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN. ONE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR THE SNOW BELT AREA LATE TONIGHT. ONE TO LOCALLY TWO
INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE. SOME RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN.

AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE SOME SNOW IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CONCERN THAT THE POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...WILL MONITOR THIS
FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT IS NOW DOWNSTREAM OF ERIE. THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BEGIN
TO DRY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN AN INCH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF
ENHANCED LIFT. ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE DRY AND COOL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE NEXT TROUGH
ARRIVES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SET UP ACROSS NW PA/NE OH. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THIS PACKAGE...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW NOT FALLING UNTIL OUTSIDE THE THIRD PERIOD. LAKE
EFFECT WILL WIND DOWN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT WILL BE DRY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE IN AGREEMENT THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND THE FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT THREAT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT ON THURSDAY AS SOME OF THE ARCTIC AIR
FILTERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TREND UPWARD WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW
AS MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE TRYING TO MODIFY FROM ARCTIC AIR AND
OF COURSE THE SUN ANGLE IS AT A MINIMUM THIS TIME OF YEAR. FORECAST
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS THURSDAY AND 20S ON FRIDAY.

STILL NO CONFIDENCE ON THE SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
DECENT SHORT WAVE AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AND ENDING UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THESE SYSTEMS OFTEN REDEVELOP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST
AND WE END UP IN THE TRANSITION ZONE SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW YET. THE FORECAST WILL GO
FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ON SATURDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. WE
MAY END UP NEEDING HIGHER POPS AND A MIX OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL
WAIT TO SEE THE MODEL TRENDS THIS WEEK. COLDER AGAIN BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE PATTERN REMAINS COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF MVFR STRATO CU NOW WORKING ACROSS THE TOL AND FDY
AREAS. NOW SURE HOW FAR EAST THIS BACK EDGE WILL MAKE IT BEFORE A
WEAK MID LEVEL SYSTEM SPREADS LIGHT SNOW NE ACROSS THE SE PART OF
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SHORT
LIVED...PROBABLY LASTING ONLY ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS AT CAK...YNG AND
MAYBE AT MFD AND ERI. ERI WILL ALREADY HAVE AN ONGOING THREAT FOR
SHSN AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEERING JUST ENOUGH TO BRING THE SNOW BANDS INTO THE ERI AREA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR WORKS EAST ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AND LOOKS TO BE OVER TOL...FDY AND MFD BY MID MORNING AND OVER
THE EASTERN SITES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE SITES LIFT TO
VFR AS THE DRYER AIR MOVES IN. HOWEVER...AT ERI CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO CONTINUE TO PESTER THE AREA THRU THE
DAY OR AT LEAST BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE AIRSPACE.

WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS NEAR THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN LATER TUE MORNING INTO MID TUE AFTERNOON TO BE
GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS AT TOL AND FDY AND
ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AT TIMES THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING IO THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE WILL END THIS EVENING
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT WE WILL NEED A GALE WARNING AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT RATHER
THAN HAVE TWO "HEADLINES" TALKING ABOUT GALES...WILL JUST LET THE
FIRST GALE EXPIRE AND THEN ISSUE THE NEXT AS THE NEXT CLIPPER CROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER
STRONG WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE WEEKEND BUT NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM YET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KUBINA