Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261155
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
755 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. LATEST
HRRR THAT NOW EXTENDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON STILL SHOWS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD KYNG AND NW PA ON AND OFF TODAY AND THEN
ALSO SOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NW OH. THIS AGREES
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE RESIDENT AIRMASS FROM YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TWO PRIMARY AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. FIRST UP WILL BE AREAS ACROSS FAR EASTERN OHIO AND NW
PA...WHERE A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE STILL
STREAMING NORTHWARD. WITH A COUPLE MINOR IMPULSES WORKING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...A SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MAY POP UP FROM CANTON NORTHEAST TO EDINBORO. LATE IN THE
DAY...CLOSER TO 5 OR 6 PM...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THESE AREAS WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT INCREASE WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPECTING SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BY STRONG/APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH WIND GUSTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IN GENERAL THE AREA FOR THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES SLIDES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS TO NW
PA...THEREFORE THE 50/50 POP FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.

AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST TRIES
TO PINPOINT THE PEAKS AND LULLS IN CONVECTION TIMING. FOR
WEDNESDAY THIS MEANS A LULL TO START...WITH AGAIN SCATTERED
CONVECTION POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TAIL
END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BE APPROACHING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN IN ITS WAKE FOR
THURSDAY AND WILL SHOW A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY. NO
BIG CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EITHER...STILL 80S DAYTIME/60S AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PRETTY WARM DAY ON
SATURDAY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
TEMPERATURES HINGING ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT ENDS UP. THERE IS A FAIRLY
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS
THAT TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING CONSIDERABLY COOLER IF THE
FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST HOWEVER SO SUSPECT THE FRONT MAY NOT PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING. DESPITE THIS...DID LOWER HIGHS ON
SUNDAY NEAR THE LAKESHORE BY 4-7 DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OHIO THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY AT CAK/YNG BETWEEN 16-19Z WITH A MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO NW OHIO AFTER
20Z...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY AT TOL...WITH COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING
AS THIS AREA QUICKLY MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AND MAY BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
22 KNOTS AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE STRIPS
AWAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN SCT SHRA AND TSRA...THEN
RETURNING AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING IN THE OHIO WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





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