Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 311121
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PUSHED SHOWER
THREAT A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR BATCH MOVING INTO MARION
AND MORROW COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS. THE AREA TO THE WEST ALONG A LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE SECOND AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THERE IS A LOT OF CIN AROUND THE AREA AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY AT BEST AS SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CIN AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
GENERALLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST AND BASICALLY
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WARM AIR WILL BE
SUPPRESSED AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BUT NO DEEP DIGGING TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUALLY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TO BUILD BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAYS FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THE FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK AND BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF THIS TAKES PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY...THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS US CLOSE TO A SEE TEXT AREA FOR
TUESDAY. SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS LONG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I DONT REALLY SEE A CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY BUT
DECREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
DRY. KEPT THE DEW POINTS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE
MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 60% THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT IN FOG WITH LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS 40%.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STRONGEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. VERY MUCH ON
THE EDGE ABOUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM GENEVA ON THE LAKE TO
RIPLEY NEW YORK. THE MODEL WE RUN TO GET THE WAVES GAVE 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES...THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY A COUPLE MILES FROM SHORE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD GET A LITTLE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IT COULD
BE CLOSE ON THE EAST END. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE WINDS SEEM TO BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN AND MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA





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