Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 221607
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1107 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Southern Plains will move to the middle
Atlantic Coast by Monday afternoon. High pressure will briefly
ridge into the region on Tuesday. The next storm system will move
into the Central Great Lakes from the Plains on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Made small adjustments to pops mainly northeast. Also
adjusted sky grids to get partly sunny wording for the afternoon
hours. Being still in the warm sector...cloud have broke up a bit
and while there will still be plenty of clouds wanted to highlight
the broken sunshine that will occur.

Previous discussion...
Lift associated with a 8H boundary over Indiana into NW OH and a
5H jet moving across Michigan have been enough to generate an area
of showers that is currently (08Z) moving into NW OH. There has
been some thunder with the Indiana convection but as the 5H jet
lifts northward it has decreased in coverage. So we have removed
the thunder mention. All the showers, even the area over NE OH/NW
PA will drift off to the northeast and dissipate through the
morning. Much of them ending shortly after sunrise. We will keep
some slight chances through most of the morning with the
expectation that it will be dry this afternoon into the evening.
Since we will be between storm systems there should at least be
some breaks in the cloud cover. Dont think there will be a much
sun as on Saturday but there should be enough to help nudge highs
up to near 60. A few locations may warm into the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure over the Southern Plains will move to the middle
Atlantic Coast by Monday afternoon. This will bring increasing
amounts of moisture toward the region with rain chances expected
tonight into Monday. The most significant area of rain will
spread across the region between 06z and 12z and persist through
the morning hours. The rain should then decrease from west to east
as the upper level low moves off the East Coast. The eastern half
of the County Warning Area (CWA) will have a decent chance of
seeing around an inch of rainfall. This may end up having
implications on area creeks and streams. We may need to consider a
flood watch on the day shift. Some cooler air will filter across
the CWA Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will likely
produce a rain/snow mix at a few locations, especially over the
higher terrain. At this point in time we do not anticipate any
significant accumulations.

High pressure will then ridge across the region Tuesday afternoon
into the overnight. This should produce an 18+ hour window of dry
conditions. The next area of low pressure will move into the
Central Great Lakes on Wednesday with another surge of warm air
expected. All locations should make a run at 50 degrees but
showers are expected as the cold front crosses the region
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. It will be colder in the
wake of this low so a transition over to snow should occur after
midnight Wednesday night. Some light accumulations will be
possible across NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term will be much more seasonable with a
northwest flow pattern...with systems coming ashore from the Pacific
northwest and diving southeast across the Great Lakes. This overall
pattern is well agreed upon amongst the models...but with a number
of troughs moving through the flow...daily precipitation chances
will remain until we can define better timing. We cool
gradually...but will be cool enough for snow showers Thursday.  It
is not until Saturday that we get colder than -10C at H8...so the
best that we could get would be just a little lake enhancement.
Temperatures will start out in the upper 30s for highs
Thursday...but by the weekend as the colder air arrives...expect
them to be closer to 30.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Patchy areas of fog/low ceilings will quickly lift this morning.
As low pressure tracks across the TN Valley...winds will begin to
come around to the northeast today. Toledo will likely see a
return of IFR ceilings shortly after the winds shift from off of
the lake. Others will lower this evening. Cannot rule out a brief
shower this morning...but bulk of rain will arrive after midnight
tonight.

OUTLOOK...Widespread Non-VFR Monday...likely persisting on
Tuesday across NE OH/NW PA. Non-VFR returns to the area on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will begin to pick up out of the northeast on the lake today
as low pressure tracks across the Tennessee Valley tonight. This
will be enough that a Small Craft Advisory will be needed by either
late tonight or Monday morning. As the low tracks to the east coast
and ridging begins to build in from the west Tuesday...conditions
will calm on the lake. The next low will track northeast across the
central Great Lakes and with increasing South-southwest winds
Wednesday the need for a Small Craft Advisory will return. Wind
subside Thursday...but a broad trough will remain across the Great
Lakes to end the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Oudeman


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.