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000
FXUS61 KCLE 090211
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
911 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SETTLE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE
FROM KENTUCKY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO BE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALL AREAS. CLEARING REMAINS
JUST TO THE NW BUT WILL TAKE IT`S TIME ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A LITTLE EXCEPT IN THE KTOL AREA WHERE
IT WILL CLEAR FIRST. ENOUGH DRYING SHOULD OCCUR AT LOW LEVELS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE FROM FORMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING SE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THRU MON NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW CROSSING THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES COULD A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE
NE PART OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT...A LITTLE RAIN ON MON AND A LITTLE
MORE MIXED PRECIP ON MON NIGHT AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU
THE CWA THEN STARTS TO STALL.

A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NE ACROSS WV WED
MORNING. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
RAIN TO OCCUR AS OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS TO BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS
TUE EVE. THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TUE NIGHT SO AS THE PRECIP BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT...THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE
NIGHT.

A SW FLOW MON AND TUE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AROUND OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE OR LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF AND GFS
TRACK THE STORM ACROSS KY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES.
MODELS DO HAVE THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM INTO CENTRAL OHIO AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING DURING THE DAY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST. IF THE TRACK ENDS UP BEING FURTHER
NORTH WE WOULD SEE MORE RAIN MIX INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER FOR NOW
WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF A POTENTIAL MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
TIER IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE PTYPE WILL BE SNOW. WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS IN THE MORNING AND TAPER TO CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS EAST. THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT (MODIFIED)
ARCTIC PLUNGE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS EAST HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NERN OHIO/NWRN
PA THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKING FOR A WARMUP AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE SERN STATES AND THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. OUTLOOK
SATURDAY SHOWS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ALTHOUGH COOLING APPEARS MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL END FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT...NOW INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REPLACE IFR AS SNOW
ENDS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE NWRN PA MONDAY. NON VFR LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS DRIFTS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY.  EXPECT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW TO TURN SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR SO. MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKES AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE GULF COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
TO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING MORE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WX OF THE PERIOD
AS A WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECTING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE TO TURN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW ON
THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK