Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 220300
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOUDS ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PUTS THEM INTO NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.
00Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
START. GIVEN THE FACT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET BACK TO FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE.
UNFORTUNATELY EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE GAME CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP ONSET IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO PIN POINT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FORTUNATELY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OR THREE. WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS
OUTLOOK AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. SUSPECT THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE POP FOR SATURDAY IS TOUGH. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. OTHERWISE
CONTINUING WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SO LIGHT AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND SO NO
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.

A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POPS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC ALL DAY AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND THE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND MAY LESSEN THE SHSN BUT UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED.

ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATER WED INTO THU. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS S/W BUT ON AVERAGE A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR LAKE ERIE EARLY ON THU SO WILL SHOW A
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI SO OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHSN IN THE
SNOWBELT IN THE MORNING THINGS LOOK TO BE DRY.

TEMPS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08-11Z AT WHICH TIME SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT. 2000FT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR ERODES THE DRY/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES
STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND 12-15Z AT KCLE AND KCAK.
EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AROUND 12Z THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH UNDER 15KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN
PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...MORE NON VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE TIME SUN THRU TUE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO SSW DURING THE NIGHT WHILE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY SAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
PEAKS OUT SAT EVE SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BY SUN MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO
SE BY LATE SUN. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY IN
THE WEST AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BASIN.

A STRONG LOW MOVES NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE MON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MON AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS TURN SW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
AND LOOK TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY.

THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS/JAMISON





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