Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 040801
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
401 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN CANADA WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE AND REDEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND LIGHTNING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THE LATEST
HRRR TAKES THIS AREA OF PRECIP ALL THE WAY TO THE PA BORDER BY
12Z. WILL KEEP SCATTERED WORDING GOING THROUGH DAYBREAK OR SO AND
THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS SHOWING OVER 4000 J/KG CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON. AND...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS...BETTER
TRIGGERS IN THE FORM OF LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT`S
CONVECTION WILL BE FLOATING AROUND TO KICK OFF NEW STORMS. TOUGH
TO TELL WHEN AND WHERE THE STORMS WILL INITIATE SO WILL KEEP A
GENERIC SCATTERED WORDING MOST OF THE DAY. IF I HAD TO GUESS I
WOULD SAY COVERAGE OF THE STORMS WILL BE THE GREATEST IN THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST ENDS OF THE AREA. LOT`S OF CLOUDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY
SHOULD THIN AND ALLOW AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

KCLE GOT TO 90 YESTERDAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TODAY AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. KCAK HAS BEEN
89 OR 90 THE PAST THREE DAYS AS WELL. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. UPPER 80S LIKELY MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION TO DISSIPATE.
EXPECT ONGOING PRECIP THIS EVENING BUT WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND NIGHTS
STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR WEEKEND CONVECTION. WILL TRY
FOR DRY DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY STILL SEE A FEW
POP UPS EACH DAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT
OPINIONS ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. ALREADY HAD CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS PROBABLY PRUDENT TO LEAVE THEM IN EVEN
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PERSISTENCE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO START
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THAT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME SPURIOUS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DRIVING THE
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY
DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW IN THE
EAST ON TUESDAY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER MODELS. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE GOOD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AT
LEAST ONE OF THE PERIODS BUT STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION
TO GO MORE THAN CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...DROP BACK
TO THE LOWER 80S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TO
END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CLE/MFD/CAK AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH 09Z WITH LESSER CHANCES AT YNG/ERI IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER. A
LOW STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO SETTLE INTO
THE MVFR RANGE BUT A FEW SITES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE IFR
VISIBILITY RANGE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT
TIMING WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BY MID DAY. TIMING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINALS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...EXPECT TO SEE LAKE BREEZES
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND TO POSSIBLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC


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