Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 161439

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
939 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Weakening low pressure across lower Michigan will drift
northeast today and leave a trough across the area for tonight.
High pressure will push up the Ohio Valley Wednesday and
Thursday then weaken and shift to the southeast U.S. for
Saturday. This will bring a warming trend to the area for the
second half of the week.


Low pressure continues to rotate slowly east. The low is causing
some flurries across the area and will mention flurries all
areas today. Cold pool of air will gradually settle in through
the day so temperatures likely will not change much today.

Previous Discussion...

No changes with this early morning update...Cold air is really
pushing into the area on the backside of the clipper which is
now broadly centered across lower Michigan/Ontario. Single digit
readings are commonplace across IN and western OH including
into the Findlay area. Hancock and Wood counties are really the
only portion of our area that will be flirting with the -10 wind
chill criteria through around 9 am this morning. For this
limited and marginal situation, we will continue just to mention
it in the HWO and in the forecast itself. Interestingly enough,
guidance temperatures across the area today have quite the
spread. Not quite sure what the MET guidance is seeing bringing
FDY all the way up to 18 later this afternoon especially after
seeing the cold located upstream. This cold air is just now
arriving and therefore have sided with the cooler MAV and EC
numbers. Far eastern areas still will have snow chances and only
minor accumulations if any. Elsewhere only a few flurries here
and there. Any breaks in the overcast will be limited and fill
back in.

Tonight the upper trough rotates across. Have the mention of
flurries with this. Lake effect/enhancement a tough call with
an ice covered lake. With the trough swinging across have snow
shower chances across primarily Erie Co PA overnight with the
lake possibly providing some enhancement. Nothing organized.
Again guidance temperatures vary. Have gone on the colder side,
but not as cold as the EC hoping that cloud cover keeps us away
from too many sub zero temperatures. Winds will be lighter and
wind chills likely will not reach colder than the -10 mark.

Warm advection begins Wednesday and the area should recover
nicely into the upper teens and lower 20s.


A quiet stretch of weather is in store later this week with a slow
warming trend developing. Shortwave ridging will be overhead on
Wednesday night followed by a compact upper wave passing northeast
of the area on Thursday. Southwesterly flow and warm advection will
be on the increase as the gradient tightens between surface high
pressure over the Ohio Valley and the approaching trough to the
north. Low levels will be dry with just passing mid and high clouds
and expecting partly to mostly sunny skies on Thursday and Friday.

High pressure along the Gulf Coast shifts to the east coast Friday
into Saturday allowing low level moisture return to develop. The
cloud field will thicken on Saturday with continued warm advection
and increasing isentropic ascent. High temperatures through the
period will gradually climb from the mid 20s on Thursday to the
lower 40s on Saturday.


The long term begins with a deep upper trough over the four corners
region and ridging across the eastern United States. Light rain
showers are possible Saturday night into early Sunday as a warm
front lifts north across the area. Temperatures on Sunday in the
warm sector will approach 50 degrees or better, melting the snowpack
once again. The upper low is expected to lift out of the Plains and
move northeast across the Midwest and upper Great Lakes Sunday night
through Monday night. Showers will accompany the occluded front as
it sweeps eastward Sunday night into Monday. Current timing suggests
highs on Monday will occur early in the day, with temperatures
falling behind the front to near normal values by Tuesday.


.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
MVFR will likely stick around for the majority of the day. There
are a few holes of VFR, but expecting that to fill in for this
afternoon to a fairly widespread MVFR deck. There is some chance
that a number of sites could have a period of VFR today, but not
confident enough to put much into the TAF. Persistence is
likely the way to go until a trend in that direction can be
seen. Areas of flurries out there through the TAF period. Some
light snow may still get quite close to YNG today and possibly
ERI tonight. This could potentially dip them into IFR. Weakening
surface low will remain north of the lake today with the upper
trough arriving for tonight. Southwest winds will persist
through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely Tuesday night into Wednesday with a
gradual shift to mainly just the snowbelt later on Wednesday.


Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots on Lake Erie today
behind a cold front. Winds will relax some Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as a weak trough moves across the lake. Late
Wednesday into Thursday southwest winds will increase on the lake
again as the gradient tightens between high pressure over the Ohio
Valley and a series of troughs sliding across the upper lakes.
Southwest winds of 20-30 knots are possible on Thursday. Breezy
southwest winds of 10-20 knots continue into the weekend with a
return to above normal temperatures.




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