Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291557
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1157 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA WILL
DISSOLVE BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MAKE MINIMAL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BEFORE LOW PRESSURE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE STILL IMPACTING EXTREME NE OH/NW PA BUT
THIS ROUND OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALL BUT OVER. NEXT ROUND WILL
BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS FROM INTERSTATE 77
AND EAST. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN AS TEMPERATURES ARE
STRUGGLING TO EVEN HIT 50 AS OF JUST BEFORE NOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS
MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING. SMALL CLOSED LOW ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE EASTWARD BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE. THE
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AND INTO NW PA TODAY...FOCUSED ALONG AN H8 FRONT. THE
COOL POOL ALOFT WITH THE WAVE WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND WITH
DIURNAL HEATING WE SHOULD SEE AN AREAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO NW PA. AREAS TO THE SOUTH MAY
SEE A SHOWER...BUT MOST WILL NOT. AS THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
PASSES...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST AND WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SIT BELOW NORMAL. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOWS NEAR 40. SOME UPPER
30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES BACK BY
MIDDAY/MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. AGAIN AS WHAT WAS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW ACROSS MID COUNTRY OPENS AND JOINS THE MEAN FLOW...A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. GUIDANCE STILL
VARIES WHERE EXACTLY ACROSS OHIO IT WILL TRACK ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR. WILL BRING
CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL
AWAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN...ENOUGH TO
KEEP EVERYTHING SOGGY BUT LIKELY NOT CAUSE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR WATER PONDING ISSUES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE
NORTH FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED TO THE
50S...WITH A FEW 60S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WE WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BOOSTING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR ALL
AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
AND PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES STAND A CHANCE TO WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
REACH NEAR SEASONAL HIGHS BEFORE STARTING TO FALL FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL MODELS SHOW 500MB
HEIGHTS FALLING TO BELOW 550DM WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C
ON THURSDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
TIMING OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING RAISING LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND LOWERING HIGHS ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE FRONTAL FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
TODAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT MOST OHIO SITES WITH MVFR/VFR
IN PLACE AT TOL/ERI. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING WHILE
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHOPPY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS LAKE ERIE RESIDES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. EASTERLY WINDS MAY EXCEED 20
KNOTS AS THIS SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. BETTER
MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC


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