Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 282243
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY...THEN PUSH
BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE CIRRUS REMAINS
THIN ENOUGH THE AREA MAY SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON CUMULUS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL NOT MOVE ONTO LAKE ERIE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
THUNDER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NW PA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S COMMON. A FEW LOWER 80S MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 70 DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE FROM THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE MODELS TIMING ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN
STARTING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEN SPREAD IT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED SOME OF THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
MAINLY IN THE EAST FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROF AND A
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROF. DRYING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
EXCEPT WENT COOLER THEN GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY BASED ON THE FORECAST
850 MB TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY
AND THEN A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME CIRRUS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AND UPPER
JET. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SOME CUMULUS WAS DEVELOPING.
THE CUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.

THE NAM MODEL WAS INDICATING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT 850 MB TO FORM
A CEILING WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS DOING THAT. AT THIS
TIME THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE.

THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING AROUND FOR TONIGHT. INSTEAD
OF A WEAK NE FLOW ALOFT THAT WE HAD FOR DAYS IT WILL BECOME NW AND
THIS WILL CHANGE WHERE THE FOG THREAT WILL BE FROM MAINLY NW OH TO
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FORECASTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING THE TAF SITES EXCEPT
AT CLE AND ERI.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE TROF WILL BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT AND TROF WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOME
FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING SLOWLY DISSIPATED
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP ON
THE LAKE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING THE DENSE FOG TO BE PATCHY AS
THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF LIGHT NORTHEAST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FOR FRIDAY AND THEN A
TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF
ON SATURDAY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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