Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 161318
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
918 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to dominate the region through
Sunday. A weakening cold front will push east across the area
Monday. High pressure will move east across the northern Great
Lakes Monday and Tuesday extending a ridge south across the area
by Tuesday afternoon. The ridge will build southwest and remain
nearly stationary through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Morning shallow ground/valley fog continues to burn off leading
to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer
than yesterday as high pressure slowly drifts more east today
with continued warm air advection. Temperatures are running a
about 5 degrees above normal, as well as dew points pushing
around 60F. Winds will switch around to the north which will
keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler near the northern
lakeshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will move over the local area Sunday night into
Monday. Moisture will be very limited with this feature but all of
the guidance is showing some QPF in the west.  Some showers may also
sneak into the eastern end of the area on Monday as well.  Will
continue with low chances pops similar to what was previously in the
forecast.  Precip chances look much less for Tuesday  and have
removed all mention. Temps will be warm during the period with highs
averaging 8 to 10 degrees above normal.  We will see highs reach the
low 80s most of the area both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not many changes to the long term today.  See no upcoming pattern
changes so will continue with a quiet and warm forecast.  Have
removed any mention of precip that was in the earlier package.
Persistence will be the way to go for temps with highs a degree or
two on either side of 80 and lows around 60.  There should be a lot
of sunshine as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
High pressure will remain entrenched across the region through
the period, with mainly VFR conditions through the period. Any
lingering BR should lift quickly this morning, with P6SM by 15Z
at the terminals. More MVFR to possible IFR BR possible again
tomorrow morning towards the end of the forecast period,
otherwise little sensible wx concern through the period. Winds
will remain light through the period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible Sunday in morning fog and
minimal non-VFR on Monday with the cold front. Possible non-
VFR Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure at the surface will continue to dominate the weather
on the lake.  The flow will remain under 10 knots the entire period.
Although the gradient flow should be mainly southerly over the
weekend...onshore flow will likely develop in the nearshore waters
during the afternoon.  A very weak cold front may try to cross the
lake early in the week but given the light winds it should have
little impact.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Jamison
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...Kubina



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