Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 022348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND BE IN THE RANGE OF 52 TO 60.
ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THIS EVENINGS SKY GRIDS WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A OVERALL DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT CAN NOT
QUITE RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX
NE TO YNG. HAVE TENDED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TENDS TO PRODUCE
STRAY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
THE SAME OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND ONE SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 80 AND HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
MADE A CORRECTION TO WEATHER GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT COMING
THROUGH DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF TILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...MOST LIKELY AT
KCAK AND KMFD AND POINTS SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO N FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCES FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA



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