Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 210044
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
844 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Low pressure will track across southern and eastern Ohio this
evening along a frontal boundary. The low will reach central
pennsylvania to central New York State tonight. As the low passes
it will pull a strong cold front eastward with it. Much cooler
air will spill across Northern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania
Friday into Saturday which will cause lake effect showers across
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Have gone ahead and cancelled the flood watch early has areas in
the watch have received no more than a tenth or two the past
twelve hours. The threat for heavy rain has moved off to the east
as north to northwest flow continues. Will continue with high pops
overnight but additional QPF amounts most areas will be under a
quarter of an inch. Made some other minor adjustments including
bumping lows up a degree or two.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Friday the upper trough axis will be over the area. Drier air will
shift in from the west during the day with 850mb temps continuing
to drop to between +1 and -1 east to west by evening. Will of
course end the rain west for the day but will need to begin with
categorical pops east dropping to chance and likely by evening.
Forcing does move east but with the colder air now over the lake
am concerned about lake enhancement starting. In fact Bufkit
forecast soundings show the lake-850mb temp difference reaches the
moderate category Friday evening and continues moderate into
saturday night. Through Friday night the fetch remains short with
winds NNW however moisture is fairly deep with CAPE to 20kft. Saturday
morning winds back to NW increasing the fetch although...moisture
will be less favorable. Basically will hold onto likely to
categorical pops Friday night through Saturday in the favored ares
of the snowbelt. Sunday conditions will improve with building
upper heights and a surface high which build into the area from
the south. Sunday night however will need to watch the path of a
short wave dropping southeast across the lakes. Temps below normal
Friday and Saturday and near normal Sunday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions still look marginal for lingering lake effect shra for a
good part of the day on monday then high pressure moves across the
region to provide dry wx into tue. The models show another weak cold
front trying to drop south into the area tue into wed with a band of
moisture with the front. Will add slight chc pops to cover this. A
band of warm advection moisture and possible rain looks reasonable
for wed. A better threat for shra will be wed night thru thu as the
low and cold front with the upper system should be moving across
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Low pressure continues to move northeast across the Ohio valley
region at this time. The storm system will move slowly northeast
away from the area. MVFR clouds and visibility will be a problem
for much of the area overnight with conditions improving in the
west Friday but continuing during the day Friday in the east. IFR
is also likely in the east overnight into tomorrow. Rain will
slowly lift northeast and possibly transition into more of a heavy
drizzle or very light rain by morning as cloud deck aloft begin
to move out of the area preventing the heavier rain. Winds will
increase during the day tomorrow at 15 to 25 knots as well.
OUTLOOK...Northeast OH/northwest PA will have Non VFR possible
through Sunday morning and again late Sunday night into Monday.
The low moving from the upper oh valley into new england and high
pressure to the west will combine to produce sca conditions for most
or all of the lake into sunday. A reinforcing cold front with a low
along the front is expected to cross the area later sun/sun night
which could again kick up enough of a nw wind for sca conditions for
a while. Finally, high pressure will spread east over the lake
monday night into tue to diminish the winds.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ143>149.