Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 161350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
950 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE WILL BE THE DOMINATING
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH MOVES EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGES
WITH THIS PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR SIOUX FALLS SD THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TOWARDS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD WARM ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN NRN OHIO...UPPER 50S
IN NW PA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY AGAIN WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND...MAINLY NW OHIO.

A TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NORTHEAST
ACROSS OHIO IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET ARE PRETTY
LEAN ON MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH BEING WEAKER WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WHILE THE NAM/GFS ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AND STRONGER COLD PUSH. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
LATTER SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY SO HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER CAMP TO MAKE A DEFINITIVE CHOICE
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP/TEMPERATURES SO WENT WITH A BLENDED
APPROACH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
WITH A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH SKIES CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS ALREADY EXHIBITING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT.  WILL USE A MIX OF ECMWF GFS MOS AND HPC
GRAPHICS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASICALLY THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL LIKELY BE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AIRMASS DRIES OUT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN OHIO
AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL FALL AT 3AM AS WINDS/WAVES DECREASE ON THE
LAKE. FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY EXPECTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH WAVES TO 4 FEET OR SLIGHTLY MORE
WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY.  OTHERWISE NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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