Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 032107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
307 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Regional radars show that echoes have developed over northeast SD
and are lifting up into the southern Red River Valley. KABR
reported some light rain and ice pellets and the Oakes ND web cam
shows just light snow. This band is expected to continue to lift
NE tonight while another band over western ND moves into the
Devils Lake region later this evening. Between these two bands,
most of the area should pick up a dusting to around an inch or so
of snow tonight into Sunday. Wind speeds will stay fairly gusty
into the evening before decreasing a little bit. A boundary will
move from west to east across the area late tonight into Sunday
and will switch winds from the south to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Sunday night to next Saturday...Models in overall good agreement
with the expected evolution of the weather this next week as the
above normal temperatures end with the first push of cold air this
season. Details during the transition continue to be outside of a
predictability interval to lead to high confidence, so soon to
pinpoint exact locations and snow totals. Confidence is increasing
with the placement of measurable snow occuring across the northern
half of the forecast area with the Devils Lake basin the to have the
most impacts with winter weather conditions starting Monday late
afternoon into Tuesday as snow and blowing snow are expected to
affect the area. In the wake of the system the coldest air of the
season will filter into the northern plains with 850mb temps falling
to minus 15 to 20C. This will result in max temperatures falling
from Monday highs in the 30s to highs around 10 above for Wednesday
into the end of the week.

The weak and rather brief period of 500mb ridging will break down as
a broad long range trough works into the Northern Rockies and then
eastward Sunday into Monday. Associated SFC low pressure will
develop in western ND and move east with snow developing on the
front of the system as WAA takes place. More intense precipitation
is expected on the backside of the SFC low in the deformation zone
expected to track across the Devils Lake basin. The model solns
remain spread out with the EC and SREF quicker and weaker than the
stronger GFS and NAM solns as a result placement and amount of snow
remain in flux.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Some breaks in the clouds are lifting toward the KFAR area, so did
add a TEMPO group for some SCT conditions there this afternoon.
If present trends continue, some of these breaks may move up
toward KBJI too. Confidence pretty low on keeping things
scattered, but there may be a slow increase in ceiling heights
for a while. Breezy south winds this afternoon will decrease a bit
this evening before switching to the SW-W on Sunday morning.
Expecting some light snow or flurries to affect most TAF sites by
late afternoon or early evening and continuing into Sunday




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