Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191428
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
928 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Forecast looks on track with only minor changes needed. Plenty of
sun today...but breezy to windy.

UPDATE Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Short term models indicate the strongest 850 mb winds are in the
12-15z period from wcntrl Manitoba into ne ND and NW MN. 850 mb
winds diminsh into the aftn during peak heating. So still thoughts
are winds will reve up quickly after sunrise and hold just below
advisory levels into the aftn, strongest in the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

A 500 mb short wave is moving quickly east thru northern South
Dakota with some light rain showers. Some of these will skirt our
far southern fcst area in west central Minnesota 12z-15z period.
Otherwise most of the fcst area will be in the dry airmass just
south of the departing upper low in northern Manitoba. Soundings
show a well mixed layer today up thru 750 mb wth potential for
35-40 kts to mix down. Winds at 850 mb more 30-35 kts. Unsure if
all the potential winds from 700 mb will mix down...but likely
from 850 mb. Thus windy today, with highest wind speeds to mix
down over northern fcst area, especially along Canadian border.
Borderline wind adv criteria this area and will need to be
monitored. In general MOS winds show 23 kts sustained at Langdon
this aftn and 20 kts at GFK-DVL. So just below criteria. Lots of
sunshine today with dry 850 mb layer dont expect any cumulus.
Highs mostly 68-75.

Winds to diminish this evening and skies generally clear...though
increasing high level cloud cover later Monday night from the
west.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Another short wave to move through southern North Dakota and
northern South Dakota Tuesday. Models continue to hint at some
light shower potential from a mid cloud deck in southern ND and
west central MN. Coordination among offices was to keep it dry but
wouldnt be suprised if later shifts have low pop. A tad cooler on
Tuesday. Weak surface low further south will be moving east as
well and behind it winds will turn north-northeast by Tuesday late
day.

Wednesday to see a north-northeast wind. Mid level moisture out
ahead of a large upper level trough that will set up over the
western U.S. will spread the risk of a few showers. Kept thunder
mention in far se ND and wc MN late Tues night into Wed per prev
fcsts but latest 00z guidance is a bit farther south and east and
targets SE MN hardest with t-storms as max warm adv sets up into
southern MN.

For Thursday into the weekend...wet weather returns. Long wave
rex pattern was over western North America. Pattern shifts into
central North America by the end of the period however the trough
portion flattens.

The ECMWF was faster than the GFS at the beginning of the period but
the two models reverse by the end of the period. Both the ECMWF and
GFS have been trending slower. Will blend the two models.

High temperatures were decreased a degree or two for Thu and
increased one to three degrees for Fri through Sun from yesterdays
run.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Strong west winds today...15-30kts DVL, GFK, TVF, BJI sites.
Winds diminishing quickly early this eve. Skies mainly
clear...high clouds BJI to Wahpeton to continue moving east.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle



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