Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 011914
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
114 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PASSING CIRRUS AND SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S SHORTLY AFTER NOON
MDT. WINDS ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH...GUSTING 25 MPH AT
TIMES. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
KANSAS TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BUT IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION
SLOWLY WEST. A COUPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...
SLOWLY TRANSITIONING EAST BEFORE DECAYING BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS
MAY SNEAK INTO EAST COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MEAGER CAPE...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF VERY DRY
AIR PRESENT NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH THE DRY AIR...SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AN INVERTED-V PROFILE...SUGGESTIVE OF FAVORABLE DOWNBURST
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO REACH THE REGION
THIS EVENING...FEEL THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING. STORMS PROGRESS SOUTH WITHIN THE NORTHWEST/NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...REACHING THE TRI-STATE REGION AFTER
CONGEALING INTO AN MCS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHER MOISTURE AND THUS INSTABILITY
IS ANTICIPATED. THE STORM COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...REACHING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING. IT IS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE
THE SUBSTANTIAL BUMP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT.
THEREFORE...THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX. THE MAIN THREAT MAY TURNOUT TO
BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.

ANOTHER THING TO WATCH TONIGHT IS THE CHANCE FOR FOG. A LOW PRESSURE
OVER EAST COLORADO SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT TONIGHT...ALLOWING EAST
WINDS TO PULL IN THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT...THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY EAST OF A HILL CITY KANSAS TO
BENKELMAN NEBRASKA LINE. DENSE FOG IS NOT PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED AS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MOVING IN WOULD KEEP THE WINDS UP HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MIXING.

ONE LAST ITEM TO NOTE. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS
LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BETTER
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INDICATE A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT 0-3 KM
HELICITY IS ELEVATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AROUND 200 M2/S2.
THIS SUGGESTS A TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE WET WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...A CLOSED LOW MOVES
ACROSS CANADA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS BY MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AS WARMER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST. THE WARMEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND AND BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
LOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOIST AIR ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY
SET THE STAGE FOR EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS A SIMILAR
PATTERN TO RECENT FOG EVENTS. WENT WITH A MVFR FOG MENTION FOR
KMCK. KGLD SHOULD BE FOG-FREE AS WEST WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR.
TWO PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE FIRST SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
SECOND ROUND WILL DEVELOP OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING...SLIDING SSE
OVER NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...ANTICIPATE
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO REACH KMCK AND POSSIBLY KGLD AS WELL.
FOR NOW...ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PREVAIL THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...RRH



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