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000
FXUS63 KGLD 030006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
506 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME. BACK EDGE OF
WRAPAROUND SNOW JUST ABOUT TO EXIT SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WICHITA
COUNTY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME. RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR MCCOOK AND HILL CITY...DETAILS
IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN FA FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING AS DYNAMICS DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING INTO THE FA AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  LATEST RADAR AND
METARS INDICATE THAT LIGHT SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF AT SHERIDAN AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPIRATION AT 00Z MONDAY.

FOG CHANCES TONIGHT DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE SINCE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE FORECAST TO GET LARGER WITH TIME ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY PLAN TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG FROM THE FORECAST.

WIND CHILL READINGS FALL BACK DOWN BELOW WIND CHILL CRITERIA TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FA. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES WILL
PROBABLY STAY ABOVE CRITERIA BUT WILL FALL WITHIN THE CRITERIA
CLOSER TO THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDERS. PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM 06Z MONDAY TO 16Z MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TONIGHT
ACROSS KS/NE WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN EASTERN COLORADO.
WARMER 850 TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY
SUPPORTING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. COOLER READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S WILL OCCUR EAST OF
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE CONUS IN ZONAL FLOW OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WITH PHASE STILL UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW ICE ENTERING THE COLUMN IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER BUT A DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW WHICH GRADUALLY
SATURATES. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS TUESDAY EVENING SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN...THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN...SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT BUT COULD SEE SOME KIND OF WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ENDING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW ICE ENTERING THE COLUMN BUT ONCE AGAIN A DEEP AND
DRY LAYER BELOW DOMINATED BY WESTERLY WINDS. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
TIMING OF COLDER AIR WHICH COULD DETERMINE IF PRECIPITATION IS
RAIN OR SNOW. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AGAIN LOOK VERY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

KGLD...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT TAF ISSUANCE TO REMAIN SO TIL 10Z OR SO THEN VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. BY 15Z WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ABOVE 12KTS AND COULD BECOME GUSTY TO 25KTS FROM 17Z-23Z.
ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...MAINLY BY AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10KTS BY SUNRISE THEN
GUST TO 25KTS BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10KTS BY 23Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT
HILL CITY AND MCCOOK.

RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY FOR MARCH 2ND:

HILL CITY... -5 IN 1960
MCCOOK...... -6 IN 1980

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
     TO 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
     TO 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99