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000
FXUS63 KGLD 042127
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

ARCTIC COLD HAS ENTERED THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR
A WHILE. SOME LIGHT SNOW FELL THIS MORNING...WITH HEAVIEST BANDS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING NEARLY AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS.
TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD BRING A
QUICK INCH IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT OTHERWISE THE COLD WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE LEAD TO SNOWFALL ENDING AND
EVEN SOME CLEARING SKIES...AND HIGHS WERE A CHALLENGE OF BALANCING
THE ADDITIONAL SOLAR RADIATION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ARE A
BIT STRONGER THAN THE ORIGINAL FORECAST...BUT A BLEND OF 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE HANDLED THE STRONGER WINDS A LITTLE BETTER THAN MOST OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO AND PARTS OF NW KANSAS/SW
NEBRASKA WILL REACH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO...APPROACHING RECORD
COLD VALUES. A QUICK CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL DUE TO A NARROW BAND
ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS AS SUGGESTED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. A FEW
SPOTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70 COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH...BUT ANY
SNOWFALL THAT DOES FALL WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT. SNOWFALL AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONCE THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY AS COLD
AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD...850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -20 C...VERY COLD
EVEN BY WINTER STANDARDS. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
ZERO...APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AM VERY CONFIDENT ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO -15 TO -25...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO. IF SKIES CLEAR AS RAPID AS THE RUC IS INDICATING...EVEN
COLDER TEMPS/WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...COLD. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS...EVEN WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS WILL BE
NEAR ZERO MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS AROUND
ZERO. MY CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECAST IS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND...AND IF
SKIES CLEAR NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE RECORD LOWS IN
THE -5 TO -15F BELOW ZERO RANGE. EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WE
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER WIND CHILL ADVISORIES BOTH NIGHTS.

MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE ON THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. BEYOND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THE FORECAST SHOULD
REMAIN DRY DURING THESE PERIODS. I DECIDED AGAINST MENTION OF
FLURRIES...THOUGH I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD THURSDAY IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING
OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVES TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SUNDAY. VERY GOOD
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THIS
FEATURE...HOWEVER THERE IS LESS CONTINUITY ON THE TRACK AND THIS
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS OVER OUR CWA. DURING THIS
FORECAST UPDATE I BUMPED POPS UP SOME ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
SNOW. BEST GUESS BASED ON A MEAN STORM TRACK PUTS SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE OVER OUR CWA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SETTING UP.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AND H5 PATTERN BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL. MODELS DO
ADVERTISE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS FINALLY APPROACHING (OR
GOING ABOVE) FREEZING BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORTHER JET STREAM
STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY ACTIVE HOWEVER SO ADDITIONAL REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR COULD KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. WINDS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT BOTH
SITES WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

A LIGHT BUT VISIBILITY-REDUCING BAND OF SNOW IS APPROACHING
GLD...AND WHILE ITS APPEARANCE IS MEAGER ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE...OBS AT KITR INDICATED REDUCTION TO IFR CONDITIONS. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE A TEMPO FOR GLD FOR A QUICK BAND OF
SNOW...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SITE. THIS
SECOND ROUND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUICK...ENDING LATE THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS CEILING HEIGHTS
RISE.

AT MCK SOME CLEARING ON SATELLITE AT THE 17Z HOUR...BUT ASOS
REPORTING AN MVFR CLOUD DECK STILL IN PLACE. REGARDLESS...SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE VFR CLOUD COVER
RETURNS. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES TONIGHT.

CURRENT DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY (DEC 5)...
GOODLAND.....-8  (1972)
HILL CITY....-5  (1909)
BURLINGTON...-11 (1972)
MCCOOK.......-10 (1909)
YUMA.........-5
TRIBUNE......-2
COLBY........-8

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...JJM