Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 141733
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA TODAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DYNAMICS AFFECT MAINLY THE
WESTERN AND SOUTH FA.  POPS WILL BE NIL FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES AND
850 TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS RAIN IN
THE EVENING TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN FA TODAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 20S.  MIN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD MODERATE TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
AND THEN COOL TO THE UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA.  THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  DESPITE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 40...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS INDICATE THE PRECIP. WILL BE
SNOW.  THE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD ALLOW THE
SNOW TO BE WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR THE AREA.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA DO NOT INDICATE ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST
100 MB OR SO WHICH WOULD KEEP SNOWFALL RATES ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  THE
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD ALLOW THE
SNOW TO MELT AS IT FALLS SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EAST HALF WITH LESS TO THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST WITH A SPLIT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A TROUGH ALSO DEEPENING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.  AHEAD OF THE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL
WITH IT.  BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL THEN WARM TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

LAYER OF CU 3000-5000KFT AGL HAS DEVELOPED NEAR GLD WITH WEAKLY
UNSTABLE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND A SECOND AREA
OF CU ASSOCIATED THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT
OF NEBRASKA OVER KMCK. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH
THESE CLOUDS CLEARING AROUND 00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST WITH LEE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO BUILD OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY TO
25KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER. AT KMCK...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR






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