Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 230754
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
154 AM MDT FRI SEP 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2016
General clearing will continue this afternoon along the western
fringes of an area of retreating high pressure. A large upper low
will approach the CWA overnight and into Friday. The entrance region
of the jet will be positioned over the region, providing very good
forcing in the presence of 50 to 60 kts of bulk shear and CAPE
around 1200 J/Kg. Based on the soundings, any thunderstorm activity
would likely be elevated as LCLs are quite high with the inverted V
sounding profile. Mode of convection should begin as multi-cell
cluster type storms that will form into a line preceding a dry line.
Best storm chances will be during the middle afternoon and will
persist through the evening from west to east. At this time,
damaging wind gusts will be the main concern as DCAPE values will be
in the 1200 to 2000 J/Kg range as the boundary moves through the
CWA. Large hail will be the secondary threat.
Temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees
this afternoon; however, low fog and stratus prevailed through just
before midday thus we could see slightly lower values. For Friday,
we will see temperatures soar once more into the upper 80s to near
90 degrees with a sharp drop toward the afternoon as much cooler air
is advected into the region. Lows tonight will fall into the 60s
across the entire CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 153 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016
The long term period will be primarily dry with chances for
precipitation on Thursday. On Monday, the trough that impacted the
CWA over the weekend will be east of the region. Behind it will be a
ridge that will move in over the area. While the ridge moves in,
models agree that a closed low will form over the southwestern
states. Towards the end of the period that low pressure will move up
and merge in with the upper level flow. This is what will
potentially lead to precipitation chances Thursday. Current model
runs show the GFS to be a little slower and the EC a little faster.
So timing is still questionable at this time.
High temperatures are expected to slowly increase from the 60s on
Monday to the mid 80s to low 90s on Thursday. Early Monday and
Tuesday mornings will continued to be monitored for a potential
Frost Advisory. Patchy frost has been added to Monday morning.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2016
Tricky short term forecast for KMCK. Low clouds and fog are being
observed in the counties to the north of the airport. Given a
persistent easterly surface wind both could briefly impact flight
categories overnight. However, overall trend suggested by the
models is for the low clouds/fog to lift northward by sunrise and
not have a lasting impact.
Otherwise, VFR expected at both KMCK and KGLD. Southerly surface
winds will increase to wind by late Friday morning as the pressure
gradient increases ahead of a cold front moving into eastern
Colorado. Expecting a line of showers and thunderstorms to
accompany the front into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska