Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 122315
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
415 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 100 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

Rest of Today: At 19Z this afternoon, remote sensing data
indicated that the de-amplifying remnants of an upper level low
(which moved ashore the PAC NW yesterday evening) were progressing
southeast through WY->CO. Observational data indicated an
attendant (albeit weak) lee cyclone in eastern CO. The 12Z NAM,
which depicted a relatively narrow NW-SE oriented band of
precipitation extending from northeast CO into northwest KS, has
verified fairly well in the 12-18Z time frame, though the actual
band that developed was located roughly 25-50 miles further
west/south than indicated. At this point, accumulations > dusting
but < 1" are expected to be confined south of Interstate 70 and
west of Highway 83, or along and south of a line from Goodland
east to Colby. Expect precipitation to end AOA sunset as the
aforementioned shortwave energy progresses over/downstream of the
Tri-State region.

Tonight: The airmass in the lowest 1000-2000 ft AGL is expected to
be nearly saturated by sunset this evening. Light/variable winds
(little/no advection) within that layer and some degree of
radiational cooling (assoc/w rapid drying above ~2000 ft AGL)
suggest that low stratus and/or fog will develop quickly after
sunset, resulting in a challenging low temperature forecast. At
this time will indicate lows ranging from near 0F in the far
northeast to ~10F or perhaps in the teens in the far west/
southwest.

Saturday: Expect a light southerly flow to develop across western
portions of the area on Saturday as a ~1045 mb high builds
south/southeast from the Dakotas to the northern MS river valley
and a weak/broad surface trough persists in the lee of the
Rockies (presumably in association with NW flow aloft). Any low
ceilings and/or fog that develops tonight will be slow to lift on
Saturday, particularly in eastern portions of the forecast area
where low-level flow (and mixing) will be weaker/longer. With the
above in mind, expect highs ranging from the teens far east/
northeast to lower/mid 40s far west/southwest.

Have kept the blended solution intact during the latter part of
next week since the individual model solutions appear to become
more out of phase as another couple of short wave troughs cut
through the upper ridge aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

The high amplitude pattern remains over the U.S. with the central
high plains region staying under northwest flow aloft. A series
of low pressure systems rotates through the Great Lakes region
between this weekend and the first part of next week with the tail
end of the upper trough associated with the upper lows along with
a couple additional short wave troughs sweeping across the
forecast area.

The large temperature gradient across the forecast area on
Saturday disappears on Sunday as the cold air is swept east and
highs rise into the mid 40s to lower 50s in the wake of a short
wave trough aloft. The cold air pushes back southwestward into
the forecast area on Monday behind a back door cold front that
pushes into the region Sunday night. Very light snow is possible
across the forecast area as the front and colder air push into the
region.

Other than the possibility of light snow Sunday night into early
Monday morning, the long term period is expected to remain dry
through the remainder of next week. As the western U.S. upper
ridge moves east over the Rockies and high plains, the cold air
at the surface also moves east and the temperatures rise gradually
through the week. By Thursday and Friday, high temperatures will
be back in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 415 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

For KGLD...MVFR conditions thru 14z Saturday with ceilings BKN-
OVC010-015 w/ 6sm BR 06z-14z. From 14z onward...VFR skies.
Winds...NE around 10kts thru 06z then light/variable. By 14z
Saturday...SSE 5-10kts.

For KMCK...MVFR/VFR mix thru the forecast period with ceilings
ranging from BKN015 up to BKN070. 6sm BR from 04z-14z. Winds...NE
around 5 kts thru 04z then light/variable. By 14z...ESE 5 to
10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN



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