Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201915

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

A lee cyclone will deepen in eastern CO as shortwave energy over
the PAC NW progresses east toward the northern Rockies. Marginal
destabilization is expected along/east of Hwy 283 late this
afternoon into tonight as 10-12C H85 dewpoints advect poleward
beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer (characterized by H7-H5
lapse rates of 8.0 C/km) via strengthening southerly flow on the
eastern periphery of the lee cyclone in western KS. Given a
significant amount of convective inhibition and relatively weak
upper forcing prior to cold fropa ~12Z Sat, expect dry conditions
to persist. Strong southerly winds are expected along/east of
Highway 283 this afternoon/evening, becoming sustained at 25-35
mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Although winds should decrease with
loss of insolation by ~00Z, GFS forecast soundings suggest a
shallow (1500-2000 ft) mixed layer may develop beneath the EML
east of Highway 283 around 03Z, when low-level (1000 ft AGL)
southerly flow nocturnally strengthens to ~50 knots. As a result,
a second maxima in winds/gusts may occur east of Hwy 283 this
evening. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph cannot be ruled out, though
this is more likely to occur south/east of the GLD CWA (e.g.
Dodge City, Hays, Russell). Expect highs this afternoon in the
lower 80s and lows tonight ranging from the lower/mid 40s in
eastern CO (where the cold fropa will occur prior to 12Z) to the
upper 50s/lower 60s in the far east where southerly flow will
persist all night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Saturday night-Sunday night...longwave upper trough and sfc cold
front slowly move east during the night with a light westerly
component to the wind. With fairly light winds, little if any cloud
cover and dewpoints in the mid teens to mid 20s situation is set up
for temperatures to be slightly lower then superblend model. Will
undercut lows by a few degrees and shoot for lows in the mid 20s to
mid 30s. Freeze conditions are possible and highlites may be issued
in later forecasts. For Sunday upper level ridging builds into the
area with a generally sunny sky and perhaps breezy southwest wind
during the late morning through afternoon hours. Afternoon
temperatures should peak in the upper 60s to low 70s. For Sunday
night sfc winds veer to the west and northwest under what should be
a clear sky. Low temperatures shouldnt be as cold with readings in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Monday...GFS slower in pushing a cold front through the area with
NAM/SREF/ECMWF in better agreement.  Given the discrepancy wont
change advertised forecast highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Could
see some breezy north winds behind the front but nothing serious.
Low temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday...should see continued breezy conditions east of the
Colorado/Kansas border during the day as we remain in a tight
gradient aloft between 590dm high over the west coast and deep low
pressure near the Great Lakes. Todays 850mb temperatures continue to
advertise a range of 5C (east) to 11C (west) range supporting highs
in the upper 50s to low 60s, in line with MEX guidance. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 30s. expecting extensive sunshine during the day with a
clear sky overnight ahead of an approaching upper trough and cold
front. 850mb temperatures and MEX guidance would support highs at
least in the low to mid 70s (as advertised) which is in line with
GFS 850mb temperatures. ECMWF 850mb temps are a few degrees higher
supporting possibly warmer temperatures then advertised. Low
temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Thursday...long range models bring an upper trough and increase in
clouds through the area. Nice axis of 850-500mb moisture oriented
northeast-southwest across much of the area supportive of chance to
likely pops for light rain showers across the northwest portion of
the area. This system moves rather quickly across the rest of the
area through midnight with a chance of light rain showers generally
along and south of the interstate. After midnight moisture
dissipates leaving only a slight chance for light rain/snow showers
across the extreme south. Still looking for breezy to possibly windy
north winds given 9-13mb 6 hour pressure increase and 850mb winds to
35kts or so. Nudged up winds a few kts but not as high as consmos
guidance. Given differences in fronts arrival as well as precip
placement wont mess with high temperature forecast which right now
has mid 50s to mid 60s. MEX guidance much colder with low 40s to
around 50. Low temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s for now.

Friday...a large upper trough covers much of the country with dry
conditions and current forecast highs in the low to mid 50s with
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at the GLD/MCK
terminals. Southerly winds will increase to 15-25 knots with gusts
up to 30-35 knots this afternoon and early evening. Breezy
conditions will persist until ~midnight, after which winds should
decrease to ~10 knots as a lee cyclone progresses into southwest
NE and northwest KS. Winds will veer to the northwest and increase
to 20-30 knots with gusts to 35-40 knots in the wake of a dry cold
frontal passage Sat morning (11-17Z). Northwest winds will
decrease to 15-20 knots at the end of the TAF period 18-21Z Sat




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