000
FXUS63 KGLD 150532
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST HAS JUST BEEN COMPLETED. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY. A COLD POOL FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED LOCATIONS WHERE THE WATCH WAS
ISSUED AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER A THREAT IN THESE PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO EAST COLORADO FROM THE WEST AND
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED. A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE 1000 J/KG OF CAPE STILL RESIDES WITH
THE BEST FORCING AND LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

OVERALL...ACTIVE WX PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY
TODAY TO A SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SUNDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...BECOMING STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD
BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
COLORADO WILL REDEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO LATER TODAY.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY...WITH A SIMILAR AMOUNT MLCAPE /1000
TO 1500 J/KG/ AND A BETTER SHEAR PROFILE /30 TO 40 KTS EFFECTIVE
SHEAR/. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGHER CLOUD BASES THAN YESTERDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD...WITH
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SLOWER STORM MOTION /10-15KTS/ COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVILY
RAINFALL. TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH 30C 850MB
STICKING AROUND FOR ANOTHER DAY. WINDS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT
THE MOMENT DUE TO A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN...THOUGH GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN SOUTHERLY STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 35MPH IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

TONIGHT...STORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...THUS IMPROVING WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR EXISTING STORMS. GFS DEPICTS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...THOUGH AM SIDING WITH ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT
WILL BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

TOMORROW...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHILE
LOCALLY A THE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO REDEVELOPS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPS LOOK BE COOLER GIVEN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER
20S...WHICH GIVES HIGHS BACK IN THE 80S FOR A CHANGE...THOUGH STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AS
STORMS FIRE ALONG WHAT WILL THEN BE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. BELIEVE
THREATS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA.

A SHORTWAVE WITH GOOD DYNAMICS WILL MOVES ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT. A FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE FA SATURDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CAPE (2000-2400 J/KG). STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEAST. STORMS WILL HAVE
A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE WITH AROUND 40KTS OF SHEAR.

PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR OF AROUND
35KTS WILL PROVIDE SEVERE POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD WITH THE FRONT
ACROSS THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

UPSLOPE WIND WILL CREATE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN TO GO WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH NIL CHANCES EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO 90 SUNDAY COOLING INTO THE MID 80S MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL BE
CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO MID 80S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 18 HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REMAINING GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE DIMINISHED AND SHOULD NO LONGER NOT
POSE A THREAT TO KGLD OR KMCK. HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
BEING OBSERVED BUT THINKING THAT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH PRECIP TO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY...LOOK
LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR TOMORROW. THE STORMS WOULD BE AFTER
22Z...MORE LIKELY AFTER 00Z. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OF TS OUT
FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN AND INITIATION POINT OF THE CONVECTION BEFORE IT MOVES
EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH