Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 212024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
224 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1210 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2016
Midday analysis of satellite and radar indicate only partial
clearing for the western half of the CWA with very light isolated showers
in the eastern portions of the area. High resolution data does not
develop much in the way of precipitation through the afternoon
hours with only isolated slgt chc to chc showers expected through
the afternoon and into the evening. Should start to see some
isolated activity in the east and southeastern portions of the CWA
with areas west and northwest remaining dry.
Temperatures have been steadily rising through the morning and we
remain on track to reach our afternoon high in the lower 90s. Lows
tonight should fall into the middle 50s to middle 60s but this
will be cloud cover dependent as the temperatures will be slower
to respond in areas with persistent cloud cover.
Another warmer than average day is in store tomorrow with high
pressure positioned just far enough west to continue the influence
on our temperatures. Subsidence on the western fringe of the ridge
combined with relatively dry air at the surface will keep
precipitation out of the forecast through Thursday afternoon.
Highs should once more reach the lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2016
For the extended period...the main wx concern will focus on a strong
upper low/trough which currently sits off the Pacific coast. This
system will move northeast thru Rockies slowly Thursday night on
thru the upcoming weekend...and eventually set up over the
Northern Plains region before becoming a cutoff/meandering upper
system by next Monday into the middle of next week.
The first chance for precipitation during the extended occurs as a
weak warm front lifts thru the region thursday night...followed by
a cold front for the overnight period into Friday. These occur
out ahead of the upper trough as it lifts thru the Rockies.
Enough instability ahead of the front will warrant mention from
SPC of a Marginal risk for some isolated t-storms w/ the main
focus along the KS/CO border.
The latter half of the extended period will focus on the WNW
circulation over the area. The combination of the upper low over
the Northern Plains and surface high pressure over the NC Rockies
will keep breezy conditions in place. Overall...increased cloud
cover thru the period possible with a few weak shortwaves rounding
the low circulation to help enhance.
For temps...above normal numbers expected before the passage of
the cold front...then the increased WNW surface flow will usher in
a cooler airmass with temps at or just below normal. Looking for
highs to range in the 78-88 range to start...tapering down to
mainly the mid to upper 60s for the remainder. Overnight lows
taper down from near 60F to mainly the 40s by next Wednesday.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Sep 21 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at both TAF sites through the
afternoon and into the evening with middle to high cloud cover
gradually diminishing into the evening. WS mention a KMCK
beginning around 06Z. Winds will gradually shift to become
southeasterly as the day progresses.