Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251913
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
113 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
RIDGE STILL IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK VORTICITY
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME WEAK REFLECTION OF THIS EXTENDING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...WITH FAVORABLE JULY
SOLAR ANGLE SUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGHS HAVE STILL REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(A LITTLE COOLER TOWARDS THE NW).

STALLED FRONT IN THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
COLORADO SHOULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT RANGE). HIGH LCL/LFC OVER OUR CWA SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELEVATED AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
DCAPE WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS. IF UPDRAFTS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH...MAYBE LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE
SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION CONDITIONS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A WIND
THREAT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OVER
CWA...HOWEVER DESPITE GOOD SURFACE-BL MOISTURE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
AIR MASS ITSELF IS FAIRLY DRY AND COVERAGE IS A QUESTION. BEST
FORCING WOULD ACTUALLY BE LATER IN THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE (ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM POSSIBLE MCS IN THE NORTH) MOVES INTO THE
CWA. AT THIS POINT I WAS COMFORTABLE KEEPING COVERAGE ISOLATED AND
DELAYED EXIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WESTERN
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE BEFORE SUNSET.

DEEPENING ON EVOLUTION OF OUTFLOW (AS INDICATED BY NAM) OR WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS HEIGHTS
AND PATTERN ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AND A
RECOVERY OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. I KEPT TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE 90S (AROUND 100F IN THE EAST). HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EARLIER
INITIATION OVER OUR CWA...WITH FLOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. GOING INTO NEXT MONDAY...BROAD H5/H7
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND A DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LEAVES THE
FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE ENTIRE 4-DAY
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARY STAYS ALONG THE EAST COAST...DOWN
INTO THE GULF REGION AND UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY HAS CWA SEEING LOW PRESSURE FORM ALONG THE TAIL-END OF THE
FRONT IN EASTERN COLORADO. WITH LITTLE FORCING TO MOVE CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS...KEEPING HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY MIDWEEK...WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. MODEL TRACK WILL PUT HIGHEST POP CHANCES ALONG
WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE TAPERING OFF. BRIEF RESPITE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING OCCURS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GOING INTO THURSDAY...TROUGH TO THE EAST DOES
RETROGRADE SOME...HINTING THAT CUTOFF LOW MAY FORM. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PINWHEEL SOUTH ON BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...
ALLOWING FOR 20-30 POP POTENTIAL FOR RW/TRW THURSDAY...DROPPING OFF
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. WITH REGION SEEING
BROAD NW THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME...COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER FROM EXPECTED
CONVECTION...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RANGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS(LOW TO MID 80S)/LOWS(LOW TO MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KT GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND A COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. BETTER CHANCE FOR GUSTS WILL
BE AT KGLD. BY MID AFTERNOON THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
AS A RESULT WIND SPEED WILL DROP TO 10KT OR LESS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS
FROM THE NW MID-MORNING SATURDAY FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD HOLD OFF DURING THIS TAF PERIOD SATURDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND NW KANSAS.
COVERAGE IS A BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT...SO I AM LEAVING MENTION
OUT OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. WE MAY END UP NEEDING TO ADD VCTS AT
KGLD IF COVERAGE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR





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