Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 162030
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 595 DM RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SW US...WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE CWA LAST NIGHT ANS SHIFTED
EAST WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH ML CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. LOWER VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG ARE IN PLACE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE BETTER FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHER CINH WAS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT INITIATION IN THE EAST...HOWEVER EXTENSIVE CU FIELD NOW IN
PLACE WITH BETTER VERTICAL EXTENT THAT WOULD BE EXPECTED IF AIR
MASS WAS COMPLETELY INHIBITED. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE WEST WILL REMAIN MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION ALONG WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE...HOWEVER I COULDNT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST WERE CAP TO WEAKEN...ESPECIALLY
WITH WESTERN EDGE OF FRONT NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BORDER. HAVE
EXTENDED AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND BUMPED UP COVERAGE IN THE
SW. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW WITH WEAK SHEER...HOWEVER IF A
BETTER UPDRAFT WERE TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST WHERE BETTER CAPE
PROFILES EXIST THEN SEVERE HAIL/WIND COULD BE THREATS.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODELS HAVE
A DECENT PRECIP SIGNAL OVER OUR CWA...DESPITE DRY SOUNDINGS...SO
CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE
ELEVATED..HOWEVER EFFECTIVE SHEER AROUND 35KT AND MODERATE MU CAPE
IN THE 2000-2600 J/KG WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A ELEVATED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WIND MAY ACTUALLY BE THE
GREATER THREAT CONSIDERING THE INVERTED V PROFILES IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING GOOD WAA BACK TO THE CWA...AND TEMPS
SHOULD BE AS WARM IF NOT WARMER AS TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID-
UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MEANS A
CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. SOME ENERGY SHOULD PASS OVER THE TRI-STATE
REGION...LEADING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED STRONGER WINDS MOVING THROUGH...THERE IS AN INCREASE IN
WIND SHEAR. WITH ATMOSPHERE INSTABILITY/CAPE UP TO 2000-2500
J/KG...THERE COULD BE A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS THIS WILL
BE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES LEAD TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY APPEARS HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT
ATMOSPHERE INSTABILITY MONDAY AND THE EFFECT THAT SUNDAY NIGHTS
CONVECTION WOULD HAVE ON THE ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THERE COULD BE STORMS EACH DAY WITH THE
STAGNANT PATTERN AND CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT FOG WITH VIS AROUND 6SM (MAYBE LESS)
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.
THERE ISNT A STRONG SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS...SO HAVE LIMITED
MENTION TO 6SM GROUP AT 11-15Z. WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER BOTH TERMINALS WINDS WILL REMAIN ERRATIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS. EVENTUALLY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...AGAIN
AROUND 6KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR


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