Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 081728
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1128 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO BE LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FIRST THING THIS MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXITS THE
REGION AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION AT THE SURFACE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVES EAST OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TOPPING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE
A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT MOST TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST OVER
THE PLAINS WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL COME
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
APPROACH THE REGION AND THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH TRANSPORTS MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. THE FRONT LAID UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SPAWN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH STRONG WIND AND LARGE HAIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL EXPAND EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN THE LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BLOCK STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE WEAK FORCING AT THE UPPER MOST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
MID LEVEL MODEL FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY.  THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MAY PROVIDE SOME CONVECTIVE UPLIFT IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ALOFT WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...STRONGEST MID LEVEL
JET SPEEDS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE MOST FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL JET
POSITIONS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE PERIOD.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WILL APPROACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND THE CAP IN PLACE WILL PROBABLY ERODE OVER SOME
LOCATIONS EACH DAY TO ALLOW SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.  WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
RESULT OF STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEPICTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.  WITH 850 TEMPERATURES RANGING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 29 TO 31 CELSIUS...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WARM
WEATHER TO CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND MCK.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FEW CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS FROM
EASTERN COLORADO AT 50-70KFT AGL...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TOMORROW WILL BE BREEZY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JJM





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