Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 122106
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
306 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 306 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Update to add in Severe Thunderstorm Watch #449 thru 05 Sunday
for the following counties: In Nebraska...Dundy...Red Willow and
Hitchcock. In Northeast Colorado...Yuma...Kit Carson and
Cheyenne. In Northwest Kansas...Sherman...Wallace...Cheyenne and
Rawlins.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...with the area sitting
between high pressure to the east and a lee-side trough over the
Front Range...skies are mainly partly sunny with temperatures
ranging in the mid 70s up to the lower 80s. Winds across the area
are from the SSE and gusts are reaching into the 20 to 25 mph range.
Light shower activity still remains meandering over eastern portions
of the CWA.

Going into the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...do expect
the rw/trw activity to be on the increase. Lee-side trough over the
Front Range will begin to meander east into the Plains and lift
slowly northeast. A shortwave currently moving over NC Colorado will
move east into the Plains by late afternoon/early evening(around 00z
Sunday) and interact with the surface trough...adding to the
instability/lift creating potential for more thunder. Decent returns
on radar already showing up in association with the shortwave. This
system will move SE across mainly northern and eastern sections in
to the evening hrs before shifting away from the region.

With strong instability already in place ahead of this
system...strong to severe storms are expected to develop. Based on
track of the shortwave...the SPC has areas along and north of
Interstate 70 under a Slight Risk for severe...and those locales
south of the Interstate...a Marginal Risk. Both of these going into
the evening hrs with large hail...damaging winds and even an
isolated tornado possible due to expected shear conditions. On top
of this...PW values in the 1.00-1.50" range could allow for very
heavy rainfall as well...thus increasing the flooding/flash flooding
risk.

Have continued mention of patchy fog for the entire region beginning
after midnight to about 14z Sunday morning.

These 2 systems exit the region towards Sunday morning...only to set
the region up for the another round of potential severe for Sunday.
Lee-side troughing sets up again but models hold the system over
eastern Colorado during the day...then with the passage of another
shortwave...storms will focus mainly along the CO/KS border that
could be severe...but some could etch out into the remainder of the
CWA thru the day. The SPC does highlight the region again for severe
with a slight risk for CO/KS area...and a Marginal Risk elsewhere.

For temps...expecting similar conditions for daytime highs like
today with near 80F...off of overnight lows ranging from the upper
50s into the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Sunday night: Chance of severe storms will continue through the
evening across the area with the best chance of thunderstorms along
the CO/KS border. Storms should wind down by midnight. Will see a
decent chance of patchy fog by sunrise. Overnight lows will be
mainly in the low 60s.

Monday-Rest of the Week: There will be a chance of showers and
storms each day during the week. Surface troughing and upper level
shortwaves that move through the area will help induce convection
during the early part of the week. Best chance for rainfall and/or
storms looks to be Tuesday evening/night. Cold front should push
through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Looking at
the 12Z GFS theta-e analysis, the front appears to become stalled
across Central Kansas through Saturday. This should help provide
lift and be a focal point for thunderstorm development. Temperatures
through the period should be at or below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

For both KGLD and KMCK main concerns will be possible storms and
showers entering the region from the west during the evening into
the overnight and the chance of lower visibility and ceilings
setting up at sunrise tomorrow morning. Expect VFR conditions
through the afternoon. Latest satellite trends show a swath of
clouds moving north into KMCK but chose to not go MVFR because of
the rapid movement and felt VFR would prevail. Storm timing and
coverage for the area is a bit tricky at this time. Best chance of
seeing storms will be after 0Z. Some storms could produce strong
winds and heavy rainfall could reduce visibility. Storms and
showers should exit the area around 7Z. Models hinting at fog and
low ceilings around 12Z. Was not that confident to be aggressive
with it, so went with MVFR conditions during the morning.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...SME



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