Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 222347
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
547 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

South to southeast winds of 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts (highest
from Burlington to Goodland) expected tonight allowing increasing
low level moisture to be transported into the area ahead of an
approaching storm system over Nevada and California. The increase in
boundary layer moisture will create a low overcast sky and perhaps
some fog and drizzle. Some light rain showers are possible across
the far eastern portion of the area. Low temperatures in the low to
mid 40s.

For Friday the upper low is forecast to move into eastern Utah by
noon then become negatively tilted with the southern piece of energy
within the trough moving toward south central Colorado. At the sfc
the low overcast clouds in the morning will slowly move east through
about noon as winds become southwesterly and gusty. By mid to late
afternoon low clouds hang on across the far east with a generally
sunny to mostly sunny sky across the rest of the area. Winds remain
in the 15 to 30 mph range with higher gusts. As far as convective
potential cant rule out a few showers/thunderstorms across the far
east by noon through the rest of the day. A weather disturbance is
forecast to lift toward the CO/KS border after about 2 or 3pm
possibly generating another batch of showers and thunderstorms.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. High temperatures
currently expected to range from the mid 70s to low 80s in far
eastern Colorado with low 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Complicated weather situation with strong closed upper low still
expected to move across the Plains with high impact weather
possible Thursday night through Friday.

Thursday evening: Thunderstorm coverage should increase along/east
of dry line through the early evening period with strong effective
shear values in the 40-55kt range possible. Discounting GFS which
appears to have mixed dewpoint too far east, NAM and ECMWF show at
least moderate instability and this could support supercell
development and large hail and particularly damaging winds
possibly merging into a cluster or line as it shifts east ahead of
large upper low. Tornado threat would be limited to early evening
period before low levels stabilize as LLJ increases.

Thursday night-Friday night:

Regarding precip coverage and amounts: Occlusion rotates over our
CWA with deformation zone settling over northeast Colorado where
coverage or rain increases late Thursday night through Friday.
Latest NAM has trended towards GFS/ECWMF position for upper low
which keeps this main precip area in our western CWA. In our east
a dry slot is shown to rotate northwest and could limit coverage
and amounts. While CAPE decreases through Friday, mid level Theta
E lapse rates remain negative and at least isolated thunderstorms
will be possible. Low level lapse rates and SB CAPE may reload if
stratus does not develop (which ECMWF/GFS keep stratus clear in
our east). This could result in showers/thunderstorms redeveloping
and filling in our east.

Regarding Winds Friday: Strong winds may develop and both NAM and
GFS show BL winds at least near 40kt (along with statistical
guidance) by midday Friday in our west. GFS is significantly
higher with BL winds 50 kt. Even assuming mixing is limited we
may see HWW conditions. Better mixing and the stronger GFS
solution may place this potential further west. I`m holding off
on a High Wind Watch for now as NAM may not be as certain. This
needs to be monitored.

Regarding precip type and temperatures Friday: Models show Max Tw
in the lowest 3m around 3C (or lower) where the deformation band
sets up, and this could allow for a mix or transition to snow
across our west and where moderate to heavy precip occurs
generally along/west of Hwy 27 we could see light snow
accumulations. If snow occurs and rates are high enough this
could combine with the strong winds to produce near Blizzard
conditions. Confidence is low due to uncertainty on the
transition, and due to the wet nature of any snow it will take
higher rates to achieve reduced visibilities. There is time to
fine tune based on changing trends, so no highlights are planned
at this time.

Saturday-Tuesday night: Active pattern remains in place across
the plains, with a series of closed lows develop and tracking near
or south of our CWA. We will continue to see returning
precipitation chances Monday night through Tuesday. Due to the
projected tracks better amounts/coverage may remain south, but
these periods have the potential for beneficial precipitation to
occur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 547 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Several aviation hazards to watch out for this TAF period. First,
a strong low level jet develops ahead of the incoming system.
This will result in LLWS at both sites. KGLD may not reach
criteria as surface winds should remain gusty. Second, southerly
flow will bring bountiful moisture into the region. Thus, am
expecting fog/stratus development. The western edge is hard to
gauge as there is variability among the solutions. Forecast MVFR
conditions at KGLD but this is a low confidence forecast. Could go
either way. KMCK is likely to observe fog/stratus and have input
LIFR conditions. Final threat is thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon/evening. Uncertainty exists on where exactly storms
develop so didn`t included thunder for KGLD TAF. KMCK is more
likely to observe thunderstorms, but only after this TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

A Red Flag Warning has been issued effective Thursday for
locations along and west of the CO/KS border. Strong south to
southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts will combine
with relative humidity near 10 percent to create critical fire
weather conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 310 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Record and near record high temperatures are expected at the
following locations Thursday March 23:

Goodland..........81 degrees in 1967 and previous years
Burlington........81 degrees in 1910
Tribune...........82 degrees in 1967
Yuma..............81 degrees in 1967

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     Thursday for KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLIMATE...99


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