Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241157
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IDENTIFYING THE
POSITION OF THE STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT REESTABLISHED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE RESULTING LOCATIONS OF FAVORED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND BEGINS WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH A
SERIES OF IMPULSES STREAMING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. IN ADDITION TO WEAK DIURNAL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SHOWING UP
EACH EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE POSITION AND TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES THAT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE AND
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO
GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS REESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND REMAINS
GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT VERY HIGH IN IDENTIFYING THE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF BOUNDARY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY VARIATION IN POSITION WILL PRODUCE A
SHIFT IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  COOLER
CONDITIONS AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AS A RESULT OF THE ENSUING TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF
AND THE GEM FORECASTS HANGING ONTO MORE OF A CLOSED LOW SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHEREAS THE GFS AND DGEX FORECASTS
INDICATE AN UNCLOSED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

EVEN THOUGH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FOR 00Z
FORECAST RUNS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STILL LOOK PROMISING AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCES BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY.  THE STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LIFT BROUGHT TO THE AREA
BY THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...AND THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK THE
SYSTEM ENDS UP TAKING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION
ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TRI STATE AREA.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL RETURN
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER 03Z SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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