000
FXUS63 KGLD 171115
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CARRY ANY SHORTWAVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS IN
THE FA. POPS WILL BE NIL. ON SATURDAY, DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL START TO IMPACT THE WESTERN FA IN THE
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE EASTERN HALF. THIS NORTHWARD TREND OF BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THE BEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PORTION OF THE FA WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR NIL POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY. THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL BE IN
NEBRASKA BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE
TROUGH OVERHEAD AND ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. PLAN ON
CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FA
WITH DYNAMICS POTENTIALLY WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED STORMS. POPS WILL BE NIL OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE UPPER LOWS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
AWAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT STRONG
ENOUGH. CONSEQUENTLY DO NOT PLAN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS
TIME.

ADJUSTED POPS SOME IN THE NORTHEAST FA TO ALLOW FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST INTO THAT AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND SATURDAY AND
THEN COOL TO THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S EAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT
FRI MAY 17 2013

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS PLACING THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA FOR MONDAY MORNING...WITH STRONGEST 500 MB JET
OF 60 KNOTS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF KANSAS. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PREDICTED TO STAGNATE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS FOR TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE TRI STATE AREA.  THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH AN ELONGATED
TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE TROUGH COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION.  STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KNOTS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THETA E VALUES AT 850 MB ARE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 300 AND 310 K...PROVIDING MARGINAL MOISTURE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.  GFS IS PLACING HIGHER THETA E VALUES INTO
KANSAS FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH VALUES AROUND 340 K.  THIS COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
PROPER DAYTIME HEATING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PROVIDING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  CAPE
VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW...WITH POSSIBILITIES OF REACHING 500 J/KG.
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS PRESENT IN THE
MODELS...FILTERING INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SURFACE THETA E VALUES BETWEEN 310 AND 320 K...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE MARGINAL MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. LIFTED INDEX
VALUES FOR THE PERIOD GENERALLY ARE AROUND -2 CELCIUS.  GFS HAS
HIGHER VALUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHERE LIFTED INDEX VALUES
WILL REACH BETWEEN -3 AND -6 CELCIUS.  GFS CAPE VALUES FOR FRIDAY
COULD REACH BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA...PROVIDING
CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
INDICATES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH LARGER CAPE VALUES FARTHER TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA.  BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE FOR FRIDAY
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

STAGNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO THE
WEST FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHWEST
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND
EVENTUALLY REACH KGLD. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KGLD ALSO
FORECASTS THIS SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 15Z. THE
FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KMCK INDICATES THAT STRATUS AND FOG MAY NOT
DEVELOP THERE THIS MORNING SO VFR SHOULD PERSIST AT KMCK. HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT AT
BOTH SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...FS