Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 180850
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
250 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Wed May 17 2017

Main forecast issue will be upcoming precipitation event. Area
currently in between systems. Next closed off system with shortwaves
being ejected from it will begin to affect the area later tonight
and especially tomorrow. Latest model data slows up the arrival of
precipitation. Forecast soundings would indicate that the area with
the deepest saturation and greatest chance for rain later tonight
will be in the far west.

Over the remainder of the area, forecast soundings showing a
saturated low level air mass. This makes sense with increasing
upslope flow through the night and into tomorrow. Stratus should
blanket the entire area by the later half of tonight. Where
measurable precipitation is not occurring can see the area having
drizzle and fog with that lasting until the stronger and deeper lift
arrives tomorrow.

Beginning late tomorrow morning into the afternoon with the arrival
of a strong shortwave rotating around incoming system and left front
quadrant, rainfall chances will dramatically increase. Of great
importance is where the warm front ends up. As it looks now, the
warm front may reach the far south and southeast edge of my area.
Along and especially south of this front will be where the greatest
likelihood of severe thunderstorms will occur. Am thinking the brunt
of severe weather will be south of my area with the possibility that
some of those storm may clip my far south and southeast portion.
With high precipitable water values and front just to our south,
will have to be watchful for heavy rainfall in my southeast portion
of my area.

Minor note in regards to high temperatures tomorrow. Am thinking
that due to think cloud cover at multiple levels and ongoing
precipitation, temperatures will not rise much and plan on going
toward the cooler guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

At the start of the extended period a shortwave ridge gives way to
broad trough moving across the High Plains and deepening. This will
produce predominantly northwest upper level flow. The end result is
that precipitation will develop, in the form of showers and
thunderstorms, late Sunday afternoon and last well into Tuesday. Can
not say what the severe threat level will be at this time; however,
both days are showing instability over the region and if south or
southeast surface winds move into the region, severe weather is
definitely possible.

Wednesday and Thursday looks to be mostly dry; however, this could
change since there are some model discrepancies.

Temperatures during this period will see highs in lower 60s to
middle 70s while the overnight lows will drop into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1110 PM MDT Wed May 17 2017

For KGLD...VFR conditions will only persist thru 09z this morning
as low clouds...drizzle...light rain showers and fog are set to
remain from 09z onward. Mainly a MVFR/IFR mix with ceilings
ovc010 or less and visibility in precip/fog ranging from 2-5sm.
Winds ENE thru the forecast period 10-15kts. Gusts to 25kts
possible 16z Thursday to 01z Friday.

For KMCK...VFR conditions will only persist thru 09z this morning
as low clouds...drizzle...light rain showers and fog are set to
remain from 09z onward. Mainly a MVFR/IFR mix with ceilings
ranging from OVC015-025 down below OVC010 especially after 16z
Thursday. Visibility in precip/fog ranging from 3-6sm. Winds ENE
thru the forecast period 10-15kts. Gusts to 25kts possible from
23z Thursday onward.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JN



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