Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1154 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Issued at 1028 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Just completed an update. Main change was to adjust the pops based
on the latest trends and newest model data. Confined pops to the
northeast half through the rest of the day. Also adjusted the
winds and cloud cover through the period as well.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Heavy showers have moved out of the area, so have dropped the
flash flood watch.

Spotty showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move
across the forecast area today and into the plains states tonight
as the surface low and cold front move east and the associated
upper trough lifts out of the central Rockies this morning and
over the plains states tonight.

The forecast area will be between system tonight and Thursday
morning with westerly flow aloft, so no precipitation is
expected. By Thursday night, a short wave trough moving through
the northwest flow aloft moves across the region assisting in the
development of a weak surface trough that also moves east across
the area Thursday night. An extensive line of showers is being
depicted by the models extending north to south through the high
plains that sweeps across the region ahead of the surface trough.

Friday and Friday night will be dry and warmer as a short wave
ridge moves east of the Rockies and across the high plains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

The extended period will start out with a west-southwest upper level
flow through Monday night and Tuesday morning. Then the flow will
become northwesterly as a upper level ridge builds over the Rockies
and a longwave trough deepens into the Plains. This pattern will
produce warmer and drier conditions, than what the region saw the
last few weeks, over the weekend. Tuesday a frontal boundary is
expected to move through the local area. This pattern is pulling
moisture into the region from the southwest and with the boundary
looking to impact the region on Tuesday, there is a chance of
precipitation every day through the period.

Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be near to slightly
above normal over the weekend then become slightly below normal on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain in the lower


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For kgld, vfr conditions expected through the period. Northwest
winds will be near 14 knots with gusts to near 22 knots. The winds
will decrease and shift to the northeast around 6 knots near
sunset. By late evening the winds will be light and variable.
Those winds winds will become southwest around 6 knot around 9z
and then should shift to south southwest around 12 knots near 14z.

For Kmck, there will be a brief period of mvfr at the beginning of
the period and then become vfr for the rest of the period. West
winds around 10 knots will shift to the northwest at the same
speed and start gusting to near 20 knots. Those winds will
decrease to around 7 knots around sunset. Those winds will become
light and variable in the middle of the night. Those winds will
become southwest around 6 knots.




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