Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
209 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...skies are a partly
sunny to mostly sunny mix with temperatures ranging in the 60s in
the far west and south...up to the 70s elsewhere which coincides
well where cloud cover is thinnest. Winds are northerly with the
area split as to receiving stronger gusts of 20+ mph. Strong surface
ridging remains north of the CWA with ridge axis expected to slide
south and east of the CWA overnight into Saturday. This will allow
the wind field to go light/variable going into the evening/overnight
hrs...then shift to the ESE during the day tomorrow.

Models also show weak inverted trough building into the east side of
the central Rockies late overnight into Saturday. While the region
will see decreasing cloud cover overnight with the ridge cresting
over the CWA...the area could expect to see increasing clouds from
west to east over the area thru the day. Moisture funneled between
the two aforementioned systems will allow for the increased areal
coverage of clouds. Late instability along this cloud axis will
start to produce some rw/trw. This coverage will increase from west
to east during the afternoon hrs as ridge shifts more eastward
allowing for trough/precip to move off eastern Rockies into the
Plains. Upper flow will remain out of the NW while surface flow
stays ESE. This should inhibit major coverage of rw/trw development
thru the afternoon hrs...combined with the strong subsidence it has
to overcome as precip moves into area exited by surface ridge.

For temps...northerly flow going light with decreasing cloud cover
will give the area overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to the
lower 50s. Going into Saturday...daytime highs will range in the mid
to upper 70s. Temps here will be tempered in spots due to the
increasing cloud cover expected thruout the afternoon hrs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Upper ridge will briefly build over the region on Tuesday but be
broken down by a shortwave trough coming out of Colorado. Moderate
instability combined with deep layer shear of around 40 kts may
result in a few severe thunderstorms associated with the shortwave
Tuesday afternoon and evening, particularly in eastern parts of
the area.

Another shortwave trough embedded in the zonal flow on Wednesday
combined with low level upslope winds behind a cold front which
sags into the area will result in another chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Deep layer shear remains strong, however
instability is rather weak based on current model runs, so severe
threat will be limited.

A more significant upper shortwave trough appears that it will
move across the area on Thursday. Models currently keep the
stronger instability along the eastern fringes of the area, but
won`t take much to get that to back up a little further west.
However, deep layer shear is weaker compared to previous days. So
once again severe threat would be limited, though this day may
have the best potential for rain.

Looks like northwest flow will be returning by Friday on the
backside of the departing shortwave trough. Hard to rule out storm
chances with any weak embedded wave in the upper flow. Deep layer
shear improves a bit, but instability currently appears weak.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal Tuesday through
Thursday, then cool to slightly below normal on Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK terminal. Prevailing winds will remain below 12kt at both TAF
sites with surface high pressure and weak surface gradient
lingering. A few showers, maybe a thunderstorm, will be possible
Saturday afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low to
introduce to TAFs.




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