Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 261925
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
125 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NEVADA LATE THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO UTAH THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY. ONE OR TWO DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS GOING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISNT VERY HIGH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WEST...LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER. FURTHER EAST IN THE HILL CITY AREA UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
COLORADO...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 00Z WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AND BY 12Z JUST EXITING THE AREA.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE MODEST AT
BEST...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS BUT THE OVERALL THREAT
LOOKS RATHER MUTED. ADDITIONAL 12-HOUR QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
HIGHEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE MODELS SHOW GENERALLY 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED ONE INCH. THOSE
NUMBERS WOULD NOT GENERALLY WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN/SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS ONE MAY HAVE TO
BE CONSIDERED AT A LATER TIME.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH PEAK HEATING. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UP TO 40KTS. ALTHOUGH BETTER SEVERE CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE FRONT...COULD SEE
A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE HILL CITY TO GOVE AREAS...WITH LESSER
CHANCES NORTH AND WEST AS INSTABILITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. UPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
THE FAR EAST COUNTIES...NORTON AND GRAHAM...BUT OTHERWISE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING AWAY WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BACK TO NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY.

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

KGLD...MAY SEE A ONE OR SO HOUR PERIOD OF NEAR MVFR CIGS FROM
18Z-19Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS. GENERAL THINKING IS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE AROUND/APPROACH THE TERMINAL BY 23Z WITH -TSRA
FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 08Z WILL KEEP SOME VCTS TIL 12Z THEN SOME VCSH
THROUGH 17Z BEFORE PRECIP IS EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COULD
VERY WELL SEE MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THUNDERSTORMS AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXTENT) LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO CREATE MVFR CIGS WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE. HAVE LOWERED CIGS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

KMCK...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST 10KTS OR LESS. AM THINKING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR THE TERMINAL BY 02Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEST
CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL FROM 05Z-14Z. IN THIS TIME FRAME
CIGS/VIS MAY BE REDUCED TO MVFR CATEGORY IN HEAVY RAIN/FOG. AFTER
14Z SHOWERS EXPECTED NEAR THE TERMINAL AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
WIND ALONG WITH POSSIBLE NEAR SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
PRODUCE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-013.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...0254
AVIATION...99


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