Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 212334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



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