Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 032337
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
537 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOUTS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WHICH LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TAF FORECASTS. POTENTIAL FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT GLD BEFORE 03Z...BUT THREAT IS CERTAINLY
NOT IMMINENT. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS AT BOTH LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INITIAL PERIOD BEING VERY UNCERTAIN NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT.
WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE NOTED AT KMCK...IF ANY CLEARING WERE TO
OCCUR SOME FOG POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN DYNAMIC SYSTEM APPROACHING
THIS IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM



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