Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
121 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The primary short term concern is the possibility of thunderstorms
and severe weather across the forecast area this afternoon and

Early morning convection spread a large area of cooler air across
the northern 2/3 of the forecast area.  Have adjusted high
temperatures downward as a result for today also since another round
of cloud cover with convection is moving into the northern sections
of the forecast area.  The area of cooler air with temperatures in
the 70s may put a temporary damper on additional convective
initiation. However, south of the cool air, temperatures are
continuing to rise into the 90s.  So somewhere between the two,
likely near the boundary stretching from northeastern Colorado to
southwestern Kansas, expect additional convection to develop this
afternoon as the ongoing convection moves into the northern sections
of the forecast area. A check of guidance earlier this morning
showed CAPE values between 3k-4k in the current vicinity of the
boundary along with shear values that would support supercell
thunderstorm development.  Peak thunderstorm activity and severe
weather is expected primarily between 21Z and 03Z with storms
expected to taper off and move out of the area after 06Z.

On Friday generally cooler temperatures are expected across the
forecast area with isolated thunderstorms possible. No severe
weather expected on Friday at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The extended period has the potential to see precipitation each day
across the region. The only day that will be different is Friday
night, where upper level northwest flow will still be over the CWA.
Precipitation chances are still possible through the overnight hours
on Friday but the greatest potential for storms will be to the south
and southeast of the region. This is because the shortwave that is
moving through the high to central plains will be over those
locations; so instabilty will be greater down there.

For the majority of the period the CWA will be impacted by a ridge.
The GFS and European agree for the most part but differ slightly
starting Monday. The GFS has a more amplified ridge, whereas the
European has a less amplified ridge (almost a zonal pattern). As of
current model runs these difference don`t show to be impacting the
CWA differently but will keep an eye on the progression as next week
approaches. As mentioned prior, precipitation chances are possible
during the afternoon into the overnight hours each day. This is due
to the inflow of moisture from the Gulf of California and Arizona
into the region. That along with embedded weak mid-level shortwaves
will help with developing some instabilty over the region. For the
most part, at this time, severe storms are not expected but isolated
strong storms are possible.

Temperatures are expected to reach into the mid to upper 90s
next week as the ridge impacts the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Between 18z-20z expect thunderstorms to move into the area around
MCK and continue for several hours. Thunderstorms will move into
the GLD around 21Z. As storms become more numerous and gain
intensity this afternoon, large hail and damaging winds are
anticipated mainly between 23-01z before the storms begin to move
out of the area and dissipate after 06Z. VFR conditions are
initially expected, but could degrade to IFR as individual storms
move across the TAF sites. Conditions will vary between VFR and
MVFR as low clouds and areas of fog may develop in the wake of the
storms after 06Z. A transition to VFR will occur between 16Z-18Z.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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