Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280522

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1122 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Updated the rainfall chances for this afternoon through mid
morning Saturday based on latest data. Water vapor indicates a
small area of subsidence over the northeast quadrant of the Tri-
State area preventing any storms from developing. The storm
activity so far has been confined to the CO/KS border where
isentropic lift has been developing storms, and over the southern
part of the area along the frontal boundary. Anticipate the storm
activity along the KS/CO border to shift east with the isentropic
lift and weaken as the lift weakens. The storms to the south will
gradually shift to the east with the short wave trough rotating
around the base of the closed low. Am anticipating the storm
activity in this part of the Tri-State area to remain along the
frontal boundary, which will straddle the southeast border of the
area this evening.

Over the northeast quadrant of the Tri-State area, some scattered
storm coverage is expected to develop during the evening as
isentropic lift shifts eastward. However, as mentioned previously,
the lift will diminish as it moves eastward causing storm coverage
to dwindle. Storms should be east of the area around 7 AM CDT.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Upper low will continue it`s slow trek eastward through the
afternoon and into Saturday with PoPs remaining elevated through the
afternoon. There will be enough instability to spark off
thunderstorms through the afternoon. Severe storms across much of
the CWA will be limited for the most part to hail and wind. The
exception will be the far eastern portions of the CWA where a Theta-
E boundary is draped from north to south just east of the upper low.
In this area we could see stronger forcing which could lead to large
hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado. Thunderstorm
activity will slowly move to the east overnight with very weak
shortwave high pressure building in briefly on Saturday. Drier air
will encompass the region on Saturday with PoPs increasing once more
as we head into the overnight hours into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Weak upper ridge will gradually flatten on Sunday as flow becomes
nearly zonal across the CWA. A large longwave trough will move
slowly southward out of Canada as we head over the Monday through
Tuesday time frame. Slight chance to chance PoPs will remain
possible thanks to favorable instability in the region. CAPE values
during the afternoon Sunday through Tuesday will be in the 2000 J/Kg
to 3200 J/Kg range with only modest bulk shear values. Wave of low
pressure will rotate very slowly around the longwave trough through
Thursday with weather remaining largely unsettled through much of
next week. A ridge will build into the western U.S. as we head into
Friday. This ridge will gradually work its way into the region and
dry things out as we head into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light west to northwest
winds will continue through the TAF. Clouds will clear from west
to east through the TAF period as well.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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