Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 261014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
414 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Temperatures will cool today following the passage of a cold front
and are expected to remain cooler in the 80s through the remainder
of the week. Even through high pressure remains aloft across the
southern and central high plains regions and Rockies, models are
advertising several questionable vort maxes strengthening within
the high and emerging east of the Rockies over the central high
plains region on Thursday and Friday that may aid thunderstorm
development mainly over the higher terrain of the front range and
immediately to the east over the plains.

The cold front poised just to the north of the forecast area will
sweep through the forecast area today around mid day following the
passage of the prefrontal trough through the area this morning. A
few early morning showers may redevelop in the vicinity of the
surface trough over the eastern sections of the forecast area with
additional storms expected to develop across the forecast area
as daytime heating kicks in mainly in the vicinity of the
convergent area of the prefrontal trough and cold front as it
moves south of the area late this afternoon and evening. Any
storms that develop may produce localized heavy rain due to the
high precipitable water values across the region.

High pressure moving in at the surface keeps temperatures cool
through Thursday and Friday with mostly dry conditions on Thursday as
the front pushes further south. There will still be a possibility
of isolated storms on Thursday in the vicinity of the tail end of
the front over the Palmer Divide region and just to the east as a
weak short wave trough aloft is shown by some model solutions
emerging east of the Rockies. Another stronger vort max possibly
associated with a short wave trough moving through the weak flow
around the high pressure area emerges east of the Rockies and
moves over the western sections of the central high plains region.
SPC has a marginal area in the day 3 outlook for Friday associated
with this short wave trough.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

No significant changes from last night`s discussion. The models
still show an upper level ridge amplifying over the Rockies and
placing the region under a northwest upper level flow. At the same
time monsoonal moisture builds back into the region and a series of
shortwaves looks to traverse the periphery of the ridge throughout
the period. This will produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon/evening with Saturday night looking to have the best
chance of precipitation. Temperatures during this period look to
maintain near normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Complicated set of forecasts due to many wind shifts, some
precipitation chances, and variable ceilings bouncing between vfr
and mvfr. For Kgld, vfr conditions are expected until 15z. Due to
outflow winds from earlier storms and incoming front, the winds
will switch from northwest to southwest and back to northwest. The
last wind shift occurs around 11z and will be around 10 knots. At
15z the front moves through with northwest winds increasing to
near 18 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. It is when this front
moves in, multiple models are developing mvfr ceilings behind the
front from 15z to 18z. Vfr conditions return at 18z with north winds
remaining near 15 knots with gusts to near 23 knots. Early in the
evening the winds remain north around 14 knots as mvfr ceilings
return through the rest of the period.

For Kmck, vfr conditions are expected for most of the period. Some
thunderstorms will be near the site for about an hour, and then
should remain precipitation free until later in the day on Wednesday
at the earliest. Light and variable winds will shift to the southwest
at less than 10 knots. At 12z the winds shift to the northwest
around 12 knots. At 15z the front moves through with north winds
of 15 knots gusting to near 23 knots. Those winds shift to the
northeast at 9 to 13 knots for the rest of the period. Mvfr
ceilings are expected to develop near sunset.




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