Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 021132
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
532 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS CIRRUS STREAMS OVER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR
DATA INDICATES A LONE DECAYING SHOWER ENTERING NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
NEAR FORT COLLINS TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO IN AN ARC-LIKE FASHION.
IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE PACIFIC PERSISTS.

FOR TODAY...OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOPING IN TWO LOCATIONS...ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS IS A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY. MOISTURE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT AND THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOCATED. DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS NOTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD
HAMPER INSTABILITY AND THUS STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED-V
PROFILE SUGGESTS A THREAT OF DOWNBURST WINDS. THEREFORE...CANT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOVEMENTS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WOULD SUGGEST A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...HOWEVER...DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOWS SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING AND LEAD TO QUICK THUNDERSTORM CYCLES. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TODAY.

TOMORROW...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD PASSES THROUGH. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS
FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW BUT HAVE DIFFERED IN PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT WITH EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THUS INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING TO AROUND
1.50-1.75 INCHES...INDICATING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINS. WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING. SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGHER END HAIL THREAT
DEVELOPING. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MOSTLY CALM DAY WEATHER-WISE AS CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING SHOULD PRODUCE A RELATIVE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD OCCUR
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IMPROVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SO STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT POPS AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STATIONARY THETA E
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME LIGHT FOG
IS POSSIBLE AT KGLD BUT PRESENTLY DO NOT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES SOAR AFTER SUNRISE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND A LEE TROUGH IN
EAST COLORADO. STORMS MAY APPROACH KMCK BUT DUE TO ISOLATED
NATURE...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH


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