Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 241946
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
146 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016
Due to current ongoing storms and severe weather will wait to issue
the morning forecast until severe watch 202 is cancelled.
Southwest flow will persist across the central plains from today
through Thursday night. A surface trough will exist over eastern
Colorado today and tonight. The trough will move into northwest
Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night and then align itself along the
Colorado/Kansas border Thursday night.
a shortwave is advertised to come through the flow this afternoon
and evening. The surface wind field suggests convergence to support
thunderstorm initiation across the northern fa. There is good
instability and shear to produce severe thunderstorms. Subsidence
moves into the fa Wednesdays morning behind the exiting shortwave.
Even through there is an apparent weak disturbance in the flow
WEDNESDAY afternoon, dynamics and instability are weak so will make
pops nil until late evening when some lift is shown mainly across
the far north fa. Subsidence follows Thursday morning so pops will
be nil. A strong shortwave comes into the area Thursday afternoon
and night. Good dynamics with this feature warrant higher chance
Max temperatures today through Thursday should range from the upper
70s in eastern Colorado to the lower 80s across northwest Kansas.
Min temperatures tonight should cool to the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016
Going into Wednesday night...weak surface low out over the Central
Plains ahead of slow moving upper low/trough over the Rockies...will
combine with a boundary over the Kansas/Nebraska border to bring
some light rw/trw activity to mainly northern areas thru the
overnight period. By Thursday as upper trough/low begins to shift
eastward into the plains and exits the area slowly by late Friday.
some mid level ridging will allow for periods of dry conditions
going into the first half of the weekend...do expect increase in
areal coverage of rw/trw late Saturday night on through the
beginning of next week as a couple of shortwave move around the base
of approaching upper low from the Pacific NW/Northern Rockies.
The entire Tri State region will have chances for trw/rw for much of
the extended period. Lowest probability will occur on Saturday as
weak ridigng occurs. Best chances for precip will occur Thursday and
Thursday night with the arrival of the enhanced dynamics of the
upper low combining with remnants of surface low/frontal boundary.
SPC currently has a slight risk for severe wx for the entire cwa w/
focus on eastern/northern areas ahead and north of low where best
moisture/lift will occur...aided in part along the remnants frontal
boundary. Blocking h5 ridge over the eastern portion of the country
will stall the exit of this system...allowing for wrap-around
moisture to keep chances for trw/rw into Friday before tapering off.
For temps...looking for mainly near to above normal numbers for the
extended period with mainly mid to upper 70s for daytime highs. Some
locales in eastern/southeastern zones could reach the lower 80s. The
slow passage of the upper low Thursday/Friday will provide enough
caa into nw zones to keep upper 60s for some areas. Overnight lwos
will range in the 50s with some upper 40s in ne Colorado.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016
MVFR stratocu slowly breaking up and lifting at KGLD. Expecting
marginally VFR conditions to take hold shortly. Afternoon
thunderstorms will develop once again today. Anticipating
development along a remnant outflow boundary over southwest Kansas
with storms moving northeast into northwest Kansas. This area of
storms could impact KGLD but anticipate most activity to remain
southeast. Therefore, only mentioned VCTS for KGLD. Another area
of storms will develop near the Denver Metro, spreading east
through the evening. It is this area of storms that are most
likely to impact KMCK. A late evening arrival seems most probable
from latest suite of guidance.
Late tonight, LLWS may develop as a low level jet strengthens.
Remain a little unsure on the timing and height of the LLWS so for
now did not input LLWS into the TAF. Stratus/fog development is
forecast along a boundary over northeast Colorado. This deserves a
watchful eye depending on how storms impact the boundary layer.