000
FXUS63 KGLD 252323
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
523 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH THE FLOW THIS EVENING INTO THE FA AND
A SECOND STRONGER ONE ON SUNDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF CAPE (2000-3000
J/KG) AVAILABLE FOR STORMS THIS EVENING AND 2500 TO 3500 J/KG
SUNDAY. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN EASTERN COLORADO NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
SURFACE TROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH BASED STORMS WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE.  FOR THIS REASON PLAN ON
GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT. STORMS WILL
FIRE NEAR THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FAVOR HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. ONCE AGAIN STORMS WILL BE HIGH
BASED SO WILL LEAN TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS.

BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES ABOVE 90 PERCENT IN THE
FAR EASTERN FA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RH DECREASES AFTER 15Z SO WILL
INCLUDE SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG.

850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30C SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RISING
TO THE MID 90S IN THE SOUTH AND AROUND 90 IN THE NORTH AND EAST. MIN
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST. A FEW CHANGES IN THE MODEL DATA HAVE PROMPTED SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THESE CHANGES
WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG A DRY LINE
AHEAD OF THE LEE LOW PRESSURE AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT BUT SOME PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE PAST
MIDNIGHT DUE TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AS WAS OBSERVED AROUND HILL
CITY AND NORTON KANSAS LAST NIGHT. WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA.

ON MONDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO LOOK LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS AND UPCOMING DAYS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE AGAIN WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG...0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9 C/KM.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR A LOW TORNADO RISK TO BE MENTIONED.

ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER STARTING ON TUESDAY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND THE GFS...CANADIAN...EUROPEAN
AND NAM MODELS ALL SHOW THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS IS DUE TO
MODELS EXPECTING AN EARLIER INITIAL SHORTWAVE TO PIVOT AROUND THE
TROUGH AS WELL AS A DRYLINE FARTHER TO THE WEST THAT PREVIOUS RUNS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A CONSISTENT SOLUTION...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED AGAIN.

THE MAIN DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES SWINGING AROUND THE EDGE WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A DRYLINE
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. SOME STORMS WILL AGAIN BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM LOOKS SOMEWHAT LESS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS. THIS COULD BE REFLECTING A CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK MECHANISM WITHIN THE MODELS AS MORE WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. THE SHEAR LOOKS BETTER FOR THIS
EVENT AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SOME HEAVIER...SOAKING...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THAT THIS AREA
DESPERATELY NEEDS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL THINGS OFF TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND THE KGLD
TERMINAL...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE KMCK TERMINAL
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THESE STORMS DO HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER FROM THIS POINT FORWARD CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE AT THE TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE HAIL MENTION IN
TAF. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING POSSIBLY LINGERING AT KMCK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE AT KMCK. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z TRANSITIONING TO IFR BY 12Z. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION OF LOWER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE
DEPENDENT ON OVERNIGHT PRECIP CLEARING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR