Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 312351
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
551 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Upper level trough continues to move east today across the
northern high plains and into southern Manitoba and Ontario. The
trough axis extends southwestward and will provide a focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening as a smaller shortwave pivots around the larger low.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain south of I70 as the
disturbance pulls off to the east and northeast and is not
expected to be widespread due to weak forcing. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected this afternoon or evening but
stronger storms could produce small hail and briefly gusty winds
mainly in the far southwestern corner of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
A slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger
across southwestern portions of the area...south of a Flagler to
Tribune line...Wednesday evening as storms come off the Palmer
Divide with daytime heating. Upper support will be weak to non-
existent so not expecting them to persist long after sunset.
Southerly low level flow on Thursday will result in increasing
moisture and an axis of moderate instability across the
northwestern part of the forecast area. However synoptic scale
lift will continue to be lacking in the weak flow aloft. If
anything weak ridging is forecast at 500mb. Cannot rule out an
isolated thunderstorm developing with daytime heating but will
keep pops below 20% at this time.
Upper ridge will begin to build over the central Rockies and
adjacent plains on Friday. However a cold front will drop into the
area on Friday afternoon associated with a disturbance in the
northern plains. CIN will be too high south of the front for
convection, but on the cool side it drops to zero with weak to
moderate instability forecast by the models. Can`t rule out an
isolated storm popping due to mesoscale forcing near the front,
but given the overall hostile environment think coverage will be
quite isolated if it happens at all.
Upper ridge continues to build over the weekend with weak flow
aloft. Lack of synoptic scale forcing will preclude any mention of
precipitation. Next disturbance moves into the desert southwest
early next week. However models are in poor agreement as to where
to bring it thereafter. Will stay with persistence and keep the
forecast dry. Temperatures will generally be above normal
throughout the period.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 550 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
VFR at both terminals through the period. Surface high pressure
now over MT will move slowly southeast into Nebraska through the
period. Surface winds will be light and variable overnight and
trend toward E-SE at or below 10-12 kts during the day Wednesday.
A weak trough aloft will generate mid-clouds and a few showers
tonight over Colorado which will move southeast and dissipate as
they move toward western Kansas. The light precipitation is
expected to dissipate before reaching KGLD this evening/tonight.