Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 290919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
319 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 317 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Forecast issues will be thunderstorm/severe weather chances through
tonight. Satellite showing an amplified pattern from the Pacific to
along the west coast of North America. After that the flow flattens
out with several shortwave troughs within that flow. Stalled front
is draped across the area at this time.

Not a lot of time to take a look at everything this morning due to
ongoing severe weather. So concentrated on the first 24 hours.

Today/tonight...High resolution models and large scale models show a
cluster of thunderstorms and a convectively induced 700 mb
circulation over the far eastern portion of the area through mid
morning. So will hold on to low pops through that time. Will
probably be trimming off or ending most of the severe thunderstorm
watch before the end of the shift.

Tricky forecast through this period. Pretty sure that there will be
lingering affects from this morning convection. Thinking the
synoptic front will be south of the area. Also will probably have
some outflow boundaries across the area but just not sure where. Am
expecting drying and subsidence behind this mornings activity to
keep most of the day dry until very late this afternoon.

Left front quadrant remains over the southern portion of the area
through the morning. That left front quadrant continues over the
southern half of the area through the afternoon. During the night,
most of the output develops a coupled jet structure over the area
during the evening and looks to remain through the rest of the night.

Models want to develop thunderstorms/convectively induced
circulation center in the southwest portion later this afternoon.
They then move thunderstorms and mcv mostly across the southern
portion of the area during the evening. Then from late in the
evening into the overnight hours, a rather strong northwest flow
shortwave will move across the area. This in conjunction with the
jet lift should increase coverage or bring in a second wave. Am
concerned that the models may be underdoing the overnight

Friday/Friday night...Because of the strong shortwave and coupled
jet lift, raised pops in the morning a little over what the builder
gave me. Rainfall should end by late morning. Much cooler
temperatures expected. May need to lower mins a little more.

Saturday/Saturday night...Spent very little time on this period and
kept what the builder gave me.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Sunday and Monday: A shortwave will move across the region Sunday
afternoon and evening with PoPs increasing through the afternoon.
There will be good instability in place with enough shear to provide
an environment that will be favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms could persist into the late
evening and into the overnight hours, especially in the northeastern
portions of the CWA. For Monday, look for another chance of late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms as a developing upper low tracks
north of the CWA. Instability remains high; however, deep layer
shear will be lacking and will likely limit widespread severe
thunderstorms but we could see a few strong to marginally severe
storms develop.

Tuesday (4th of July): The upper trough, associated with the
developing upper low, will move to the east giving us northwest flow
aloft. There will be a narrow axis of instability along a dryline
that will set up just west of the KS/CO border. A slight chance of
thunderstorms is possible through the afternoon mainly for western
Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne counties in eastern Colorado. A few
strong thunderstorms are possible with a low chance of an isolated
severe storm.

Wednesday and Thursday: Northwest flow continues aloft through mid-
week with surface flow becoming southerly to southeasterly.
Instability will increase late Wednesday with thunderstorm chances
through the afternoon and evening over much of the CWA. Deep layer
shear will be relatively weak on Wednesday, once more limiting
widespread severe but allowing at least a low chance of an isolated
severe thunderstorm. For Thursday, instability and shear will
sharply increase as low level southeasterly flow increases; however,
there will be very little in the way of upper-level support and thus
there will only be a slight chance of thunderstorms through the
afternoon and evening. Any storms that are able to form on Thursday
could become severe.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld,
currently thunderstorms near and to the west of the site. Current
high resolution guidance supports having thunderstorms affecting
the site. At this time kept conditions vfr but may need to update
to make it mvfr. Winds will remain from north to around northeast
at 10 knots or less.

For Kmck, less of chance for thunderstorms for here. However,
currently weak activity near the site so have vcts for the first 3
to 4 hours of the forecast. Through the morning winds will be
variable below 10 knots. After that the winds will be northwest
to northeast at 8 to 14 knots.




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