Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 020529
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO MAY REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FOR THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WANING BUT
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY...IF IT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OUT LATE THIS EVENING.

REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE ALSO APPEARED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AS ADVERTISED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OVER EAST COLORADO AND WEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND WITH INCREASING
MUCAPE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH...THINKING
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
PLACEMENT AS SOME GUIDANCE AS ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AS A
RESULT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURE.
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT.  FURTHER
WEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  AT THE SURFACE A SMALL AREA OF CONVERGENCE HAD
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEGUN TO FORM.  TO THE EAST A SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.  ANTICIPATE THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE IN THE 500-600MB
LAYER AND 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THAT LAYER WILL BE STEEPER THAN
THIS MORNING WHEN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER...SO AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART.  TOWARD MIDNIGHT MID LEVEL LIFT
STRENGTHENS OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP.
CHANCES SOME.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.  WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF DRY.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING HIGHER WITH
THE RAINFALL CHANCES BUT STORM MOVEMENT OF 45 MPH AND THE DEEP DRY
LAYER BELOW 600MB WILL LIKELY HINDER QUITE A BIT OF THE RAINFALL
FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

TUESDAY A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.  AS A RESULT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY.  MEANWHILE 0-1KM MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE WEST HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE TO NO CINH.  HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SPARK OFF STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR THE RATHER BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW DESPITE THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

MODELS FALL OUT OF SYNC BY THE WEEKEND AS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF THE SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE KEPT THE LONG TERM PERIOD INITIALLY DRY WHILE THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT AND HAVE ALSO KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SUNDAY...SO HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE AS WELL HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED WEAK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS THE CHANCE OF
STRATUS AT KGLD TONIGHT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THIS THREAT SOUTH. LATEST NAM RUNS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF
FOG AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FEW015 AS THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL STRATUS...LOWER CEILINGS OR INCLUDE
FOG. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z AT KGLD BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO BOTH SITES TOMORROW. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN AT 00Z. MOST CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF KGLD. NEED TO MONITOR CHANCES OF ELEVATED STORMS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



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