Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291654
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL
KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY.

FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US.
THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM
TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...MK



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