Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 212025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
225 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...the area is seeing a cold
front push SE thru the area. The boundary is currently pushing thru
NE Colorado. SSW winds remain out ahead of it with gusts 30-40mph
east of Highway 25/83. Temperatures are currently ranging from near
50F in NE Colorado thru the upper 60s across eastern zones.

An upper level trough is accompanying the surface feature as it
transitions eastward into the Plains. Some shower activity is
showing up along the trough in portions of Colorado. Based on
current trends with the light precip...some locales across Yuma
county may see a few showers thru the morning hours when clearing

For the rest of today...the passage of the front/trough combo will
bring in some strong WNW winds. The gradient...enhanced by a low
level jet will allow for locales to see gusts reaching the 30-45 mph
range before abating towards sunset. Despite CAA working into the
region and clearing thru the day...the downslope winds will still
afford the region daytime highs into the lower to mid 60s.

Going into tonight...the region will remain under a northerly fetch
that will weaken as the evening/overnight progresses. With the
expected clearing skies...temps will drop sharply from sunset into
the overnight. The region will see overnight lows drop into a range
from the upper 20s west into the lower 30s east. These freezing/sub-
freezing temps have prompted the issuance of a Freeze Watch for all
KS/NE zones...lasting thru 14z Sunday.

The region warms up for Sunday as upper level H5/H7 ridging gives
the region a dry/warm day with highs in the 70s. Another front is
expected to traverse the region on Monday. This will bring another
shot of colder air. Monday will also see strong NW winds behind the
boundary thru the day. Gusts could reach in to the 30-35 mph range
before slackening going into the evening/overnight hours Monday.
Lack of moisture will keep area dry during this frontal passage as

Monday high temps will drop back down to near normal numbers mainly
in the 60s. Overnight lows Sunday night will range in the lower to
mid 40s...but shift downward further into the 30s with the passage
of the second boundary...and clearing skies/light winds by Monday

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Sunday night, expecting further ridging building into the area
allowing for sunny skies and breezy winds up to 35 mph. Highs will
be fairly comfortable through Wednesday when temps will reach the
mid to upper 70s until the next system moves through on Thursday
bringing in gusty northerly winds across the area. After that,
highs will drop below 60 degrees.

Guidance has not drastically changed in the extended and there is
some disagreement still, but continuing to hold onto some mixed
wintry precipitation starting Thursday evening through the
extended. From Thursday night on, our CWA will experience
low temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Northwest winds gusting to 40kts are expected from taf issuance
through early afternoon before slowly decreasing and finally
falling below 12kts by 23z-00z. For tonight winds begin the period
from the northwest then back to the west at speeds under 10kts.
For Sunday morning winds start to increase from the southwest with
KGLD seeing gusts near 20kts by 18z and KMCK seeing gusts to


KS...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT
     /9 AM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT
     /9 AM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.



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