Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 261121
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS..WITH SHARP N-NW FLOW EXPECTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE
1042 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTING FROM THE CANADIAN/US
BORDER WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
OVERRUNNING OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OCCURRING BY
LATE TONIGHT- EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. BETTER SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
1-2" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT 3" TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
FRIDAY AROUND 30 MPH. IMPACT COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE
THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
-15F WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WE MAY NOT SEE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING THICK CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
LOWERS CONFIDENCE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WIND CHILLS JUST
OUTSIDE CRITERIA...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN A 2-3HR WINDOW AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING H3 JET TO
SHIFT NORTH AND STRONGER FORCING TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR CWA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 3" SNOW FALL
(ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS
THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME/NIGHT TIME MAX/MINS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERS INFLUENCE
ON MIXING. I TRENDED DAYTIME TEMPS BACK A LITTLE AND BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP (MAINLY TONIGHT) CONSIDERING ONGOING FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERALL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

2000-3000 KFT AGL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD EARLY
THIS MORNING...THOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD NORTH AND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL IMPACT EITHER
TERMINAL...AND AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION
AT ANY POINT IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW
AT KGLD AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AS GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL SOUTH. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...DR


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