Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 300824

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
124 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 123 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

Forecast concerns will be temperatures and a very low chance of
precipitation Friday night. Satellite showing progressive flow over
most of the Pacific then transitions to an amplified flow over North
America and western Atlantic. Slow moving and cold upper low over
Minnesota has moved little. A strong system is moving into the
Pacific northwest and southwest Canada and is starting to break down
the ridge.

Models started out okay at mid levels. However they were not
amplified with the western ridge and too far east/not deep enough
with the incoming trough. Overall the Gfs and Ecmwf were doing a a
little better than the rest. The Ecmwf and Canadian were doing a
little better than the Ukmet and Gfs on the low level thermal field.

Today/tonight...Clouds are expected to slowly decrease as system
over the north central portion of the country slowly pulls away.
Northwest winds will increase once again. However speeds look less,
in the 15 to 30 mph range, due to gradient decreasing and surface
ridge pushing in. Slight cold air advection to neutral will occur
through the day. High temperatures will be about the same to a
little cooler as a result.

Good radiational conditions result by later tonight as surface ridge
will create light winds and there will be little to no cloud cover.
So temperatures will be cooler than this mornings.

Thursday/Thursday night...Will have light and variable winds through
the day as mid and upper level cloud cover increases. This increase
is a result of a mid/upper level warm air advection pattern in
southwest flow aloft ahead of developing western trough. As a result
high temperatures will be about the same as todays. Latest data
supports the forecast blend and made no changes.

Will have light winds during the night but the mid and upper level
cloud cover continues to thicken. So at this time the current
blend/forecast looks reasonable and did not change.

Friday/Friday night...Thick cloud cover remains in advance of the
western trough and expect little to no sun. Boundary/light upslope
winds push through during the day. High temperatures look to be a
little cooler and that seems reasonable. However would not be
surprised if temperatures need to be adjusted down the closer we get
to this day. The forecast blend for this period looks good.

Upper trough that has developed to our west starts moving to the
east. The cutoff and stronger portion of this trough remains over
northern Mexico with the open wave portion of the system moving
across during the night. There looks to be plentiful mid level
moisture but not a lot of low level moisture. The forecast blend
brings a thin sliver of snow into my extreme southern portion of my
area. So that continuity is kept will leave this in but am thinking
that this snowfall will end up further south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Cold and dry weather will prevail Wednesday night through Friday
with persistent northwest flow both aloft and at the surface. Flow
becomes a bit more westerly as we head into Saturday and
southwesterly on Sunday in response to a relatively fast moving
shortwave. There will be a slgt chc of light snow as the trough
pushes across the CWA mainly in the southernmost counties with the
axis of the wave remaining well to our south. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the track; however, due to model
inconsistencies and a slow trend northward. Temperatures through
Friday will slowly warm each day with high temperatures generally in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. Low temperatures will fall into the
middle to upper teens Wednesday night through Friday night.

Dry weather persists into the weekend with highs climbing into the
50s and lows in the lower to middle 20s under a fast moving
shortwave ridge. Another, potentially strong cold front will
approach the region late Sunday into Monday. There is a large amount
of disagreement between the global models at this time; however,
medium to long range guidance has been indicating the possibility of
a strong cold front over the past several days. At this time, the
front looks to move across the area late Monday into Tuesday and
could potentially bring snow to the tri-state area. It is far too
early to estimate the amount of available moisture the system will
have access to as global guidance is not yet consistent upon a
solution. Top down analysis; however, is favorable for potentially
moderate to heavy snowfall based on the track of the system. Any
variation of the track would shift the better PoPs out of the CWA.
In either case, very cold air will likely pour into the region. Stay
tuned for further updates.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1027 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period.
Isolated flurries will continue to diminish across the area
overnight. Surface winds will increase again after sunrise,
particularly at KMCK where pressure gradient will be the greatest.




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