Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 110900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WITH RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY/TONIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

STORMS WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN EASTERN COLORADO. CAPE VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS 2600 J/KG BUT SHEAR
IS ONLY 20 TO 25 KTS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HOLD STORMS NEAR THE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST.
POPS WILL BE CHANCE.

SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE OVER THE FA SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SURFACE CONVERGENCE DUE TO UPSLOPE WIND WILL HELP STORMS
INITIATE IN EASTERN COLORADO. A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.  DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD SO WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT 40 POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE FA
SO WOULD EXPECT A CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THE THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FURTHER SOUTH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER MOST OF THE FA. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS THAT A SECOND
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FA WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA AS
WELL. PLAN TO GO WITH A CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA.

THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS SOME STRATUS BORDERING THE FA IN THE
EAST. THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH ALSO DEPICTS THIS BAND OF STRATUS
AND CARRIES IT OUTSIDE THE FA BY 12Z.  THE KMCK OBSERVATION ALSO
SHOWING THE DECREASING TREND SO WILL LEAVE STATUS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S TODAY WITH UPPER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS TO START MONDAY...BEFORE THE TRANSITION OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
PUSHES ACROSS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRONGER JET FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

ONCE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.  850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL NOT HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  INSTEAD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING TO FALL WITHIN THE MID 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO
THE EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS...A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FOR EASTERN COLORADO IN COMBINATION
WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER PROFILE COULD ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GFS AND ECMWF ALSO INDICATE A SOMEWHAT HEALTHY PRESSURE GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE...BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT PROVIDE MUCH WIND TO
BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE.  THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WEDNESDAY
COULD BE GUSTY DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE REGION WITH GOOD DYNAMICS ALOFT...THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR JULY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL SLIDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LINE OF MVFR
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER KHLC TO KMCK AND SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS. ANTICIPATE THIS LINE TO REMAIN OVER THE KMCK SITE UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE MOVING NORTH. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
LOWERING SINCE THE STRATUS DEVELOPED...SO AM UNCERTAIN HOW LOW THE
CEILINGS WILL GO. LAST NIGHT THEY DROPPED TO NINE HUNDRED FEET BUT
THAT WAS AFTER A THUNDERSTORM HAD MOVED THROUGH. AM DOUBTFUL
CEILINGS WILL BE THAT LOW FOR TONIGHT BUT DID TREND LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO FORM AT KMCK OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SITE OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT
SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS FOR BOTH
SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL






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