Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 182339
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE H5 RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY HAVING
LARGE IMPACTS ON AVIATION SERVICES AROUND MCCOOK. LOOKS LIKE
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANY
BREAKS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH CLOUDS EXPANDING RIGHT
AFTER SUNSET. BY 06Z...ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THIS AREA CAUSING CLOUDS AND ANY
LINGERING FOG TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE NOT BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THERE WILL BE A FEW STORMS
WITH THE FRONT...AS WELL AS ANYTHING THAT MIGRATES OUT OF THE
NEBRASKA HANDLE FROM THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR IT WITH PEAK HEATING. AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 WILL BE FAVORED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST
FOR THOSE AREAS...SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL
RESIDE WEST OF A WRAY TO LEOTI LINE. WHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE
IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING UP
THE RIDGE IN CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW STORMS
OVER THE COLORADO PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED STORMS WITH
PEAK HEATING FURTHER EAST IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE HOW QUICKLY VIS/CEILING RESTRICTIONS RETURN TO KMCK AND HOW LOW
THEY WILL GO TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE THE FOG/STRATUS TO BE NORTH OF
THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT NOW STRETCHING NW TO SE BETWEEN
KGLD AND KITR. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HELP KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AT KGLD.
FOR KMCK ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DEGRADE RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THE
TEMPERATURES COOL AND STRATUS MOVES BACK SOUTH. TRENDED THE
FORECAST BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE SITE WHICH HAD VIS. GOING
LOWER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT NECESSARY. HOWEVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS HAVE SHOW THAT REDUCTIONS TEND TO GO LOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE WORST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS IN VIS. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD CLOSER TO
THE SITE AND THE STRONGER WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER
MIX DRIER AIR DOWNWARD. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL


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