Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251358
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
658 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
RAIN/SNOW WILL ONLY LAST FOR TEN MINUTES OR SO OVER ANY LOCATION
BEFORE ENDING. TOWARD LATE MORNING LIFT WILL WEAKEN CAUSING THE
PRECIP. TO COME TO AN END.

TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A NEAR SATURATED COLUMN UP THROUGH
600MB OR SO. DID NOT ADD CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FOR THE AFTERNOON
YET. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A COLDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CHALLENGE BECOMES HOW FAR EAST
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO JUST EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY...AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD IT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH TURNS WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW TAPERS OFF SOME AND MOVES SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW
SAGS SOUTH AND TURNS MORE WESTERLY.

SNOW AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...BUT AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
SNOW HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT.  CURRENTLY HAVE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAXING OUT JUST SHY OF 3 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO OVER THE 48HR+ TIME PERIOD THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AFTER 16Z THIS MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE
TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z. CEILINGS MAY ALSO BECOME MVFR
BETWEEN 16-21Z...BUT FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
AFTER 03Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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