Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240848
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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