Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 192028
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
128 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017
Issued at 1154 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017
The dense fog has lifted, so updated the forecast to cancel the
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017
Latest upper air analysis continues to depict a closed low over the
Central Plains within a long wave trough over the majority of the
CONUS. Upstream another short wave trough was moving on shore. At
the surface a trough was bisecting the Tri-State Area. East of the
trough areas of dense fog had developed due to the higher dew points
present. Visibilities ranged from near zero to four miles.
This morning the dense fog coverage will remain largely unchanged
until the late morning when it begins to dissipate. The west edge
of the fog will move some from west to east following the movement
of the surface trough. This will cause locations along the west
edge, specifically the Highway 25 corridor, to have rapid changes in
visibility. Freezing fog is expected for some locations which will
leave a light glaze of ice on bridges and overpasses. Some
locations could see lingering minimal fog around noon CT. The
current dense fog advisory goes until noon CT to account for the fog
lingering longer than normal. The latest visibility forecast is
beginning to indicate a corridor of dense fog along the surface
trough which may linger into the early afternoon before completely
burning off. If this occurs the advisory will need to be extended.
Highs for today will be cooler for the east half of the Tri-State
Area due to the persistent cloud cover. Locations east of Highway
83 will not see the sun today. Due to the fairly high dew points of
low 40s, was not sure how cool highs would be in the cloud cover
over the east. Near term guidance all pointed to highs in the mid
40s for the east part of the area, but this may be too warm with the
Tonight the fog will return after midnight east of the nearly
stationary surface trough as dew point depressions close to zero.
Expect a similar trend for the fog compared to last night, with a
corridor of dense fog forming along the trough axis initially then
expanding in coverage after midnight east of the surface trough.
Lows will be similar to last night.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 127 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017
In the extended period there are a few things to look at. One being
the precipitation chances for Friday night and the potential for
greater precipitation chances Monday night into Tuesday (possibly
into early Wednesday morning).
Friday night will see an upper level low pressure system moving over
the region through the overnight hours. This will create light
precipitation chances over the region. As the evening progresses,
rain shower chances will start to transition to snow showers as
temperatures drop. Current guidance does not show any snow
Saturday shows a broad shortwave ridge moving over the region during
the morning and early afternoon hours. That ridge will quickly move
east and a trough will move towards the CWA and begin to push into
the region in the late afternoon hours. Current GFS and EC trends
continue to develop a closed low over the four corner states within
this trough and push east, southeast. This closed low is showing to
move south of the CWA and not bring any precipitation to the region.
If the track moves north then we have a chance to see some
rain/snow. Will keep an eye on this system.
Sunday into Monday brings a ridge over the region. Guidance is
showing dry conditions and a slight increase in winds Sunday
afternoon as northwest flow pushes into the area. Monday afternoon
will see a change. Southwest flow will begin to push into the region
due to a strong approaching trough. This will bring moisture to the
region. The issue at this time is that the GFS is have more of a
northerly track than the EC and Canadian. The GFS is showing less of
an impact to the region than the other two models. The EC has a
southeast track of the closed low and the Canadian has a northeast
track. This in itself posses a problem due to the snow totals,
timing, etc. Will need to keep a better eye on this system as it
approaches to get a better handle on the track and impacts to the
Wednesday and Thursday will be impacted by a deep trough, the same
one that moved into the region earlier in the week. This will likely
keep high temperatures down in the 30s; dry conditions are expected.
Temperatures for the period will be around normal Saturday through
Monday in the 40s for highs. Tuesday through Thursday will drop into
the 30s, possibly lower depending on the exact track of the low and
snowfall. This is due to the previously mentioned trough and
precipitation that is showing to impact the region, as well as a
cold frontal passage on Monday night/Tuesday.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1029 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017
VLIFR/LIFR conditions continue at the start of the TAF period as
fog burns off this afternoon. Moisture stays in place as
temperatures cool this evening and overnight, leading to a return
of fog and potentially a return to VLIFR, after a brief reprieve.
Meanwhile, cloud cover moves in from the west overnight as a lee
trough slowly shifts east. Winds are anticipated to remain light
through the period.