Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 192000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Today-tonight...models continue to advertise moisture in the 850-
500mb layer moving into the area from the southwest late this
morning while at the sfc southerly winds increase into the 10 to 20
mph range. By mid to late afternoon this area of moisture is
forecast to slide east as an upper level piece of energy moves east.
This will be enough to generate strong to severe thunderstorms
generally along and east of highway 25. Thunderstorms continue east
tonight and should be out of the area a few hours after midnight.
850mb temperatures warm about 9F to 13F across the area compared to
yesterday which is also a few degrees higher compared to past few
model runs. This would support mid 90s to around 101F and is close
to the GFS 2m temperatures. Am shooting for highs very these values.
Low temperatures look to range from the mid 50s to around 60 in far
eastern Colorado with low to mid 60s elsewhere.

Sunday-Sunday night...dry weather expected during the day under a
mostly clear to partly cloudy sky. 850mb temperatures a few degrees
cooler supporting low to mid 90s. Across the eastern 1/2 of the area
little change in 850mb temperatures noted and highs out there could
be very close to 100 degrees. Not terribly excited about
precipitation chances during the evening/nighttime hours as we`re
pretty stable and moisture lacking. Wont fight slight chance pops
for now and basically have them east of the CO/KS border. Low
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s in far eastern Colorado,
mid 60s to low 70s elsewhere.

Monday-Monday night...bulk of 850-500mb moisture that tries to move
in from the southwest in the morning remains across a sliver of our
far east through southern forecast area during the mid morning
through afternoon hours and its possible for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Otherwise a mostly clear to partly sunny
sky expected. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase during evening
and early morning hours as an upper level trough moves through
from the northwest. Currently have high temperatures in the mid
80s to low 90s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The extended period looks to be active over the Tri-State region.
The upper level flow pattern will change over the period but an
abundance of moisture will continue to be pumped up into the area
feeding any type of precipitation. Beginning on Sunday night, the
region is under a ridge with southwest flow. There could be some
lingering non-severe storms over the eastern portion of the region
during the evening.

Monday shows a shift in upper level flow as a trough moves far north
of the CWA but still shifts the flow to more of a northwest one.
This brings monsoonal moisture from the desert southwest. There are
chances for strong to severe storms due to favorable instability

Tuesday will likely be the driest day during the period as a ridge
begins to move over the region. Come Wednesday, there shows to be
some southwest flow into the region bringing in moisture again. So
storms are possible.

Thursday through Saturday are looking to be the most active and show
stronger signals for severe weather. This is due to a shortwave
trough moving over the region Thursday, Friday brings northwest flow
and then Saturday has continued northwest flow and a shortwave.

Temperatures during the period will primarily stay in the 80s, with
Monday seeing the low 90s over some locations.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the TAF period.

MCK will see isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop and move
through the area between 21-06Z with the best possibility of
strong storms between 03-06Z.




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