Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
416 AM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

Today/Tonight: Southerly flow will strengthen over western KS
today as an upper low digging ashore the PAC NW this morning
progresses SE into the Intermountain West/Rockies and a lee
cyclone deepens upstream over northeast CO. Low-level warm
advection should allow temps to climb into the mid 60s to lower/
mid 70s along and south of I-70 this afternoon, though some
uncertainty persists with regard to cloud cover (cirrus) emanating
from the Rockies. Winds will become light/variable as the lee
cyclone progresses southeast through western KS late this afternoon/
early this evening (~00Z). As the low shifts southeast of the
Tri-State region, a strong cold front will surge southward through
the area. Winds will abruptly shift to the north and increase to
20-25 knots for several hours in the wake of fropa between 03-07Z
this evening, then decrease to 10-15 knots late tonight. Guidance
suggests a potential for very light precipitation early Mon morning,
however, forcing will be weak and primarily confined to a brief/
transient corridor of shallow frontogenesis, and confidence is low
that precipitation will actually develop. Should very light precip
develop, freezing drizzle would be the primary p-type given that
forcing/saturation will be confined to a shallow layer in which
temps are progged to be remain warmer than -10C. Lows tonight
will depend primarily upon fropa timing and subsequent cold
advection, with temps expected to fall into the teens (N) and 20s
(S) by sunrise Monday.

Monday: Challenging temperature forecast. The cold front surging
southward through KS tonight is expected to stall in southern
portions of the state as a second lee cyclone develops in
southeast CO, in advance of the aforementioned upper low as it
progresses toward the 4-corners region. Strengthening low-level warm
advection atop a shallow arctic airmass and an increasingly
upslope component to near-sfc flow is expected to maintain low
overcast in the wake of the front over much of the Tri-State
region during the day. Highs will depend on the depth/coverage of
low ceilings and location relative to the stalled front. At this
time, expect temps ranging from the mid/upper 20s (N) to 40s (S),
though a tight gradient in temperatures will likely be present
over southwest KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

Frigid single digit temperatures will take over the tri-state area
early Tuesday morning, and will only rebound to the teens and lower
20s for afternoon highs. Temperatures will continue to trend
downward Tuesday night into Wednesday, but gradual warming will
quickly being to prevail as southeasterly winds bring in a warmer
and dryer air mass. This trend will continue through Sunday with
lows throughout the week in the lower 20s and highs in the mid to
upper 40s.

As for weather concerns, there are slight chances of rain and snow
on Thursday night and Friday night, do to weak cyclone over the tri-
state area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most, if not all, of
the 12Z TAF period. The only exception will be at the very end of
the period, 06-12Z Mon, when MVFR/IFR ceilings and possible a
brief period of FZDZ will be possible in the wake of a strong
cold frontal passage.

At KGLD, S/SW winds initially at 10-15 knots will increase to
15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots late this morning through
the majority of the afternoon as a lee cyclone develops in eastern
CO. Winds will become light/variable for a brief period around
sunset (~00Z) as the cyclone progresses southeast across the Tri-
State region. Between 03-07Z, winds will abruptly shift to the
north and increase to 20-25 knots as a strong cold front surges
southward through the area.

At KMCK, S/SW winds are generally expected to remain in the 10-15
knot range through mid afternoon. Winds will go light/variable by
~00Z, then abruptly shift to the north and strengthen to 20-25
knots as a cold front surges southward through NE into KS. MVFR or
borderline IFR ceilings (1000-1500 ft AGL) are expected to develop
in the wake of the front at KMCK by the end of the TAF period
(06-12Z Mon).


Issued at 345 AM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

...Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon along and south of
Interstate 70...

Southwest winds sustained at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30-35
mph, well above normal temperatures in the 60s to lower/mid 70s,
and minimum relative humidity values ranging from 10-20 percent will
result in critical fire weather conditions this afternoon,
primarily along and south of I-70.

Further north, winds will be lighter invof a lee cyclone in
northeast CO, warm advection will be weaker /temperatures cooler/,
and thus RHs will be higher. A short period of adverse fire
weather conditions cannot be ruled out north of I-70 in during the
afternoon, primarily in extreme northwest KS and in Yuma county,


KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 6 PM
     MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
     evening for COZ253-254.



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