Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270529
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

ADJUSTED TIMING OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING PERIOD TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS...AND INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR LATER TONIGHT WHEN SHOWER/ISO-T CLUSTER
DEVELOPS NEAR H5/H7 LOW CENTER AND TRACKS OVER OUR CWA. BASED ON
RAP ANALYSIS MU CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG AND BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT ALONG AND NORTH OF MESO-LOW/STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. TO THIS POINT UPDRAFTS HAVE TENDED TO
BE MARGINAL (AT BEST) SO FAR...BUT ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COVERAGE IS
ALSO STILL AN ISSUE DURING PERIOD OF BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS AND
AS COVERAGE INCREASES INSTABILITY SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH (LATER
THIS EVENING) AS COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION
FROM ROUGHLY ST FRANCIS KANSAS TO COLBY TO HILL CITY. A SURFACE LOW
IS ALSO APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER YUMA COUNTY COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH SOUTH WINDS BEING
OBSERVED. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
ASSIST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS RIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS A CAP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PREDICTING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS HAVING ADVERSE IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...AM STRUGGLING ON IF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE STORMS CAN BREAK THE CAP AND SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THEN SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO WOULD BE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF STORMS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE AN UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO SURGES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS
OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. INSTABILITY AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE BUILD UP THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WANING AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. THEREFORE...THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL ARE MORE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS THAN ANY
SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS...THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH...GUSTING
45 MPH.

FOR TOMORROW...REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTS NORTHEAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE MORNING. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. ONE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL
BE A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS
DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS...EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO REINTENSIFY.
EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...GUSTING 45 MPH DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEFORE ENDING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTH. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL EMERGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS. COOL EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SBCAPE
NIL...THOUGH MUCAPE IS NONZERO SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TOTAL
QPF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY RANGES FROM AROUND A HALF INCH IN
MCCOOK TO UP TO 1.25 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
WRAPAROUND SHOWERS...BUT QPF WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED OVER KGLD AND IS IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING TOWARD KMCK...WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW IN
PLACE OVER NW KANSAS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL IN THE EARLY TAF
PERIOD (BRIEFLY 1000 FT) WITH MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO DIMINISH LEAVING
JUST SHOWERS AS MUCH MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER BOTH
TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT KMCK LONGER...POSSIBLY THROUGH
MOST OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED AT
BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS AND SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME GUSTS 30-40KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR



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