Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
107 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Latest upper air analysis depicts a ridge building southeast onto
the Central Plains.  Rounding the ridge were higher water vapor
concentrations leading to cirrus.

Today winds will quickly increase this morning as the surface
pressure gradient tightens.  Late this morning, and into the
afternoon, winds will continue to increase as the low level jet
mixes to the ground.  Due to the cirrus, which should be over the
Tri-State Area in the afternoon, kept winds a bit lower than
preferred due to the clouds hindering some of the mixing.  Winds
will reach their peak mid afternoon then decline in the late
afternoon.  Wind gusts of 35-40 MPH are expected this afternoon. The
south winds will cause temperatures to be warmer than yesterday.

Tonight winds will be breezy due to the tight surface pressure
gradient persisting.  However winds will not be as strong as during
the day due to the low level jet not mixing through the inversion.
Overnight a surface trough will move through.  Behind the surface
trough winds will be light as the surface pressure gradient relaxes.
An upper level short wave trough will move through overnight behind
the exiting ridge, but the dry environment will only allow clouds to
form. The winds will cause lows to be warmer than yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 106 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Upper trough will come out of the Rockies in several pieces Monday
night through Tuesday night, bringing chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Instability is very limited, so not
expecting any severe threat. Will get a brief respite in
precipitation chances on Wednesday before the next system begins
to impact the region beginning Wednesday night. This is also a
very broad system which will takes its time moving out of the
Rockies and across the Plains in several pieces. The GFS does not
kick out the main upper low until Sunday, when it will be quite
wound up and might have enough cold air on the backside for a
chance of light snow.

Temperatures this period will start out near normal but by mid
week be below normal and by late week much below normal. Freezing
temperatures will be possible Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Primarily a light freeze is forecast by the models at this time,
but might get close to a hard freeze in northeast Colorado.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with only
passing high clouds. South winds gusting 25-30 kt will slowly
decrease late tonight and shift to the southwest and then
northwest as surface low pressure moves across the region.
Strongest winds at the surface will tend to be this afternoon and
again late Monday morning. A strong LLJ will bring low level wind
shear to both KGLD and KMCK terminals late this evening through
14Z before this weakens and transitions east.




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