Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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515
FXUS63 KGLD 200531
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1031 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

Several locations now reporting visibility of a quarter of a mile
across the region, so went ahead and issued a dense fog advisory.
Satellite imagery showing the leading edge about halfway into the
Colorado counties and slowly advancing westward, so included
Colorado as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

As of 1 PM MST (2 PM CST), temperatures in the mid 30s along a
McCook to Leoti line were sandwiched between temperatures in the
upper 40s on either side. This line is a good indication of where
fog lingered today. Fog that persisted east of the Colorado border
this morning, finally began to lift early this afternoon. Winds have
been light and variable with a lee trough in place. A mid level
system has begun to traverse the High Plains today and appears to be
just east of the region, in central Kansas.

Tonight: The mid level system continues to lift northeast as an
upper trough moves onto the Rockies. There will be little change in
the overall setup tonight compared to last night, so am forecasting
freezing fog to develop once again east of the Colorado border. The
nearly stationary surface trough filters moisture into the region as
it sits over the area. This trough should act as the dividing line
for stratus/fog development versus clearer conditions to the west.
Am thinking fog will redevelop late this evening and persist
overnight. Additionally, cloud cover increases from the west as a
disturbance approaches. Lows will be in the 20s to low 30s.

Friday: Fog should start to burn off by mid morning across the
forecast area, but confidence in exact timing is low at this time.
The mid level system continues towards the Great Lakes, being kicked
out by a shortwave. This disturbance is anticipated to generate
chances for snow showers in the early morning west of the Colorado
border, transitioning to rain as temperatures warm and precipitation
chances move into Kansas and Nebraska during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 127 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

In the extended period there are a few things to look at. One being
the precipitation chances for Friday night and the potential for
greater precipitation chances Monday night into Tuesday (possibly
into early Wednesday morning).

Friday night will see an upper level low pressure system moving over
the region through the overnight hours. This will create light
precipitation chances over the region. As the evening progresses,
rain shower chances will start to transition to snow showers as
temperatures drop. Current guidance does not show any snow
accumulation.

Saturday shows a broad shortwave ridge moving over the region during
the morning and early afternoon hours. That ridge will quickly move
east and a trough will move towards the CWA and begin to push into
the region in the late afternoon hours. Current GFS and EC trends
continue to develop a closed low over the four corner states within
this trough and push east, southeast. This closed low is showing to
move south of the CWA and not bring any precipitation to the region.
If the track moves north then we have a chance to see some
rain/snow. Will keep an eye on this system.

Sunday into Monday brings a ridge over the region. Guidance is
showing dry conditions and a slight increase in winds Sunday
afternoon as northwest flow pushes into the area. Monday afternoon
will see a change. Southwest flow will begin to push into the region
due to a strong approaching trough. This will bring moisture to the
region. The issue at this time is that the GFS is have more of a
northerly track than the EC and Canadian. The GFS is showing less of
an impact to the region than the other two models. The EC has a
southeast track of the closed low and the Canadian has a northeast
track. This in itself posses a problem due to the snow totals,
timing, etc. Will need to keep a better eye on this system as it
approaches to get a better handle on the track and impacts to the
region.

Wednesday and Thursday will be impacted by a deep trough, the same
one that moved into the region earlier in the week. This will likely
keep high temperatures down in the 30s; dry conditions are expected.

Temperatures for the period will be around normal Saturday through
Monday in the 40s for highs. Tuesday through Thursday will drop into
the 30s, possibly lower depending on the exact track of the low and
snowfall. This is due to the previously mentioned trough and
precipitation that is showing to impact the region, as well as a
cold frontal passage on Monday night/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1028 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

Visibility restrictions in fog and freezing fog as well as low
ceilings will impact operations at both KGLD and KMCK through the
night and into Friday morning. Conditions may temporarily improve
during that time, but for the most part expecting IFR to VLIFR.
Scattered rain and snow showers will move across the region Friday
afternoon and evening, but not expecting much of an operational
impact other than some minor visibility restrictions should one
move directly over a terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Friday for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday for COZ090>092.

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Friday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...024



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