Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 250533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE TRACKING ALONG
THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY LATE MONDAY. THE SURFACE
TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO FAR WEST TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE MONDAY.

WITH GENERALLY HIGHER PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT OR MONDAY. WITH NEAR SURFACE FLOW TURNING FROM
WEST/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THAN THEY WERE ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...EYES AND MAIN FOCUS CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE TWO PRIMARY DISTURBANCES...THE FIRST ON MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY`S SYSTEM AND WILL COVER THOSE BELOW.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. STILL
ANTICIPATE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY HAPPEN AT TWO SEPARATE
TIMES...AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EAST COLORADO DURING THE
EVENING AND POTENTIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY WITH THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE MINOR...MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE MORE INSTABILITY FOR
ANY OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) ACTIVITY WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING
2000 J/KG INDICATED BY A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS. AS A RESULT...WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE PUMPING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. A
FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST DENSE FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED TO RAPIDLY
ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS A DISTINCT CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WAS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND I-70 AROUND
NOON...GIVING THUNDERSTORMS AMPLE TIME AND INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD ALMOST BE
CLEAR OUTSIDE OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. THIS WOULD PUT A PROMPT END
TO OUR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. BELIEVE THE REASON FOR THIS CHANGE IS
A SHIFT WITHIN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES OF THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PAN OUT...LITTLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH WARM/DRY WEATHER MORE LIKELY. TO PLAY DEVIL`S
ADVOCATE...THE EUROPEAN MODEL MAINTAINS IT`S SOLUTION AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO QUALIFY THIS AS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION DUE TO IT`S PERSISTENT FORECASTS OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE
EUROPEAN DEVELOPING THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT WOULD NOT BE AS AGGRESSIVE...THEREBY LEAVING
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WIDE OPEN. AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SOUND THE ALL CLEAR ON AFTERNOON ENHANCED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EUROPEAN FORECAST. TRENDS
STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MID-WEEK AND THEN ADVANCES TOWARDS
THE PLAINS. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT AMPLE WARM
AIR ADVECTION/NORTHERN EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE TRI-
STATE REGION. IF THIS CONTINUES TO BE TRUE...AND CURRENT BELIEF IS
THAT IT WILL WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTING...THEN
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER WOULD NOT BE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES LATER MONDAY EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.