Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010145
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH


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