Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 041820
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO DIMINISH SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
MORE QUICKLY AND TO TONE DOWN SNOW TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EVENT TO MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS
RECEIVED SO FAR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST
FLOW TONIGHT.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE EAST FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT.

GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH WILL SUPPORT
THE CONTINUATION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FA.  AS SUBSIDENCE STARTS
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN FA, LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. POPS WILL DECREASE FROM LIKELY IN THE SOUTH TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN FA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM A FEW
TENTHS UP TO AN INCH.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE TODAY, SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN ADDITION, H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH
DECREASES BEHIND THE TROUGH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THESE
PERIODS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. A WARMING TREND WILL START THURSDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 40S. MID 50S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MIN
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE TEENS. MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A WEAK ZONAL FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS THE JET PULLS NORTH INTO
CANADA. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST GIVEN THE MODEL TENDENCY
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY...AND THEY MAY APPROACH THE 70S BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TURNING SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH AND A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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