Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
152 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Latest upper air data shows the ridge over the Central Rockies.
Water vapor imagery shows a very dry environment between the I-80
and I-70 corridors from the Rockies east into Central Nebraska and
Central Kansas.  At the surface a high pressure was moving east out
of the Tri-State Area.

Tonight will be similar to last night, although lows will not be
quite as cool due to some warm air advection occurring with the
south winds.

Monday will continue to be dry as the ridge builds over the Central
Plains and an upper level short wave trough tracks over the Northern
Plains. Highs will be warmer than today by a few degrees. Winds will
be breezy in the afternoon as breezy 850mb winds mix to the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Monday night-Thursday: Monday night should remain dry with low
temperatures running a bit above normal. Starting Tuesday, upper
level ridge begins to flatten out through the day and allow for a
more zonal to NW flow aloft. This upper flow will bring through a
series of shortwaves with decent PVA across the Central High Plains.
Combined with leeside troughing and a surface low, this will bring
the area chances of storms and showers through the period. While
bulk shear values look to remain low, decent MUCAPE values and
high PWATs will give the CWA a chance at seeing a strong to severe
storm each afternoon and evening in this time frame. Temperatures
for Tuesday will be well above normal with eastern areas seeing
highs around 100. Should cool to just below or near normal temps
for the rest of the period.

Friday-Sunday: Upper level ridge amplifies over the Rockies placing
us in strong NW flow. Will have chance of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon. Temperatures will be just above or near normal for
the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

For KGLD and KMCK...VFR conditions with winds less than 12kt
expected through the period at both terminals as high pressure
dominates the weather. CLear skies should prevail through most of
the period. May see a few high clouds and winds pick up near or
just after 18Z tomorrow.




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