Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 141912
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
112 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THERE IS FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2200J/KG. SHEAR WILL
VARY FROM 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.  THIS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE WEST TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST FA TO
68 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO
THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS COMING WEEK...BUT EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST TIME TO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RESUMED AT KGLD AND WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND
KMCK THE REST OF TODAY AND UNTIL AROUND 09Z MONDAY. AT THAT TIME A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING SOME PATCHY FOG AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT SO IT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. HOWEVER STRATUS WILL PERSIST
CAUSING A REDUCTION TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS



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