Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 172354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
454 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

The main weather story through Thursday night will be warming
temperatures. In addition, patchy freezing fog is possible per a few
model visibility forecasts generally near the Republican river
valley. Otherwise, broad upper level ridging will continue to move
toward the area from the west ahead of a large upper trough. Only
high level clouds are expected from time to time through much of the
day Thursday before slightly increasing in coverage from the
north/northwest late in the day through Thursday night.

Low temperatures tonight look to range from around 10 degrees in the
river valleys and low lying areas to the mid/upper teens elsewhere.
For Thursday night lows will be in the upper teens in the river
valleys and low lying areas to the mid/upper 20s elsewhere. High
temperatures Thursday look to be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

Fri-Sat: Ridging aloft and southerly flow associated with surface
troughing in the lee of the Rockies will result in well above
normal temperatures on Fri, with highs in the 60s to near 70F,
warmest S/SW. Challenging temperature forecast on Sat. An upper
level trough expected to move ashore the CA coast Fri night is
progged to amplify as it tracks toward the 4-Corners region on
Sat. As the upper wave approaches from the west, a lee cyclone
will deepen in eastern CO, and northwest KS may be bisected by an
attendant west-east oriented stationary front during the day. The
overall trend will be warmest (60s) S/SW and coolest (40s/50s)
N/NE, with uncertainty greatest invof the I-70 corridor.

Sat night-Sunday night: The aforementioned upper wave is progged
to amplify into an upper level low as it tracks from the
4-Corners region to the Central Plains during the day Sun, with an
attendant sfc low deepening/tracking northeast along a SW-NE
oriented baroclinic zone extending from the TX Panhandle to
northwest MO. The 12Z operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF depict a
similar scenario, though differ by 6-12 hours on the timing (GFS
during the day Sunday, ECMWF Sunday night). Both the GFS/ECMWF
indicate 0.25-0.35" of liquid equivalent falling in northwest KS
in assoc/w an emerging deformation band on the western periphery
of the upper low as it progresses northeast through central/northeast
KS and southeast NE. A perfect prog of these solutions would
suggest a potential for several inches of snow accumulation
(winter weather advisory criteria) along with blowing snow and
reduced visbys associated with strong NNW winds sometime Sun/Sun
night. Confidence remains low with regard to specifics at this
time, however, given that the upper wave in question is located
well offshore in the Pacific and will interact (at least to some
degree) with a powerful /occluded/ extratropical cyclone offshore
the Pacific NW/British Columbia.

Mon-Wed night: At this time, expect dry conditions and large
diurnal temperature ranges in assoc/w a period of NW flow aloft in
the wake of the amplifying upper low progressing toward the Great


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 454 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. Winds
generally from the west to southwest at speeds under 10kts. KMCK
may see some freezing fog or mist a few hours either side of
sunrise Thursday morning. Confidence in sub vfr conditions not
high enough to introduce visibility or ceiling restrictions at
present time.




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