Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 170738
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
138 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 595 DM RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SW US...WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE CWA LAST NIGHT ANS SHIFTED
EAST WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH ML CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. LOWER VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG ARE IN PLACE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE BETTER FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHER CINH WAS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT INITIATION IN THE EAST...HOWEVER EXTENSIVE CU FIELD NOW IN
PLACE WITH BETTER VERTICAL EXTENT THAT WOULD BE EXPECTED IF AIR
MASS WAS COMPLETELY INHIBITED. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE WEST WILL REMAIN MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION ALONG WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE...HOWEVER I COULDNT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST WERE CAP TO WEAKEN...ESPECIALLY
WITH WESTERN EDGE OF FRONT NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BORDER. HAVE
EXTENDED AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND BUMPED UP COVERAGE IN THE
SW. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW WITH WEAK SHEER...HOWEVER IF A
BETTER UPDRAFT WERE TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST WHERE BETTER CAPE
PROFILES EXIST THEN SEVERE HAIL/WIND COULD BE THREATS.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. MODELS HAVE
A DECENT PRECIP SIGNAL OVER OUR CWA...DESPITE DRY SOUNDINGS...SO
CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE
ELEVATED..HOWEVER EFFECTIVE SHEER AROUND 35KT AND MODERATE MU CAPE
IN THE 2000-2600 J/KG WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A ELEVATED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WIND MAY ACTUALLY BE THE
GREATER THREAT CONSIDERING THE INVERTED V PROFILES IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING GOOD WAA BACK TO THE CWA...AND TEMPS
SHOULD BE AS WARM IF NOT WARMER AS TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID-
UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT BUT THEY ARE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY. IN GENERAL THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN OF HAVING A MEAN WESTERN
TROUGH AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN WE ARE NOW IN.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN MORE
AGREEMENT...WITH THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES. THE
GFS IS FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF. NO MATTER WHAT
THOUGH THIS PATTERN LEAVES THE AREA OPEN TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. THE ECMWF
IS A LITTLE WETTER THAN THE GFS.

SO DO LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EVERY DAY UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY DRY OUT.
HOWEVER COULD SEE SATURDAY HAVING SOME LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW SINCE IT IS A WEEK OUT PLUS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH DRYING TO SUPPORT THE DRY FORECAST. ALSO
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED HOT AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
GIVEN TO ME BY THE INIT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE COOL DOWN TOWARD
THE END THOUGH. SO OVERALL PLAN ON LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE
INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AT KGLD AND KMCK.
A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL FIRE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE KGLD AND KMCK AREAS WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DECREASING CLOUDS BY LATE EVENING. NO VISIBILITY OR CIG REDUCTIONS
FROM STRATUS/FOG ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS


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