Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1100 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

An upper level low will slowly slide eastward into the Four
Corners region tonight then into portions of the Southern Rockies
tomorrow. Winds at the surface will shift to the southeast tonight
and continue through tomorrow. This upslope flow in addition of
increased moisture in the low to mid levels will lead to
increasing cloudiness tonight with mostly cloudy skies through
tomorrow. There is also a possibility of lowered visibility
tomorrow morning. Precipitation chances increase across the
forecast area after midnight and continue through at least
tomorrow. The best chance of precipitation looks to be across
Kansas and during tomorrow afternoon. As for temperatures, lows
tonight look to dip into the lower 40s with highs tomorrow only
reaching to around 50 degrees due to the mostly cloudy skies and

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The upper level low continues to slowly trek eastward and into the
Southern Plains Tuesday night then into the Mid Mississippi Valley
by Thursday afternoon. Precipitation chances continue across the
CWA through Wednesday then taper off from west to east Wednesday
night through Thursday morning. Cloudy skies are also expected
through Wednesday night decreasing in coverage from west to east
Thursday morning. A dry pattern is then expected for the remainder
of Thursday into Friday afternoon. The next system moves into the
area Friday evening into the weekend. As of now, this system looks
to take the same track as this first one. But with this system
being out more than 4 days, confidence in timing and track is low.
Temperatures through the Long term forecast look to only reach
into the upper 40s Wednesday then into the 50s Thursday and
Friday. The area then cools down this weekend as the next storm
system moves into the area. Lows will generally be in the 30s with
the exception of Tuesday night where lower 40s will be possible
across portions of northwest Kansas.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 08z
with winds from the southeast around 13kts. From 09z-15z stratus
will move over the terminal from the west with visibilities
reduced into vlifr category. Some light rain/drizzle also possible
with winds from the southeast gusting around 20kts. From 16z-23z
the terminal is expected to have light to moderate rain which
should help raise vis and cigs into ifr category. Winds slowly
back to the east near 20kts with higher gusts. From 00z-03z a mid
level dry slot is expected to move over the terminal which should
bring an end to the precipitation and raise visibilities. Cigs
however will remain in the ifr category with winds gusting near
25kts. After 03z vlifr cigs/vis expected with winds from the
east-northeast near 13kts.

KMCK, vlifr cigs expected at taf issuance through about 07z with
winds from the east-southeast near 10kts. From 08z-16z the
terminal is expected to be in vlifr cigs and vis with winds from
the east-southeast under 10kts. From 17z-21z light rain is
expected with improving vis but cigs remaining ifr. From 22z-01z
light to moderate rain is expected along with mvfr/ifr conditions
with winds from the east gusting 20-25kts. From 02z through the
rest of the period winds from the east-northeast near 12kts with
vis improving but cigs remaining ifr/vlifr.




SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
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