Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
350 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The initial short term forecast concern are the storms lingering
over the forecast area this morning. Later today and overnight the
concern shifts to the redevelopment of storms across the region
that may become marginally severe. Beyond tonight, the challenge
will be how much temperatures will warm Monday and Tuesday ahead
of the next cold front expected to move across the area Tuesday

An area of isolated to scattered elevated light showers and
thunderstorms developed from northeast Colorado to west central
Kansas overnight and continue early this morning. These storms
developed ahead of a weak mid level short wave that will continue
to lift east-northeastward out of the region ahead of the next
stronger short wave trough moving east of the Rockies and across
the central High Plains region overnight tonight.

Surface high pressure moves out of the High Plains today, across
the plains states, and towards the Great Lakes region overnight.
The frontal boundary that pushed into the southern plains with the
western extent of the cooler airmass pushed up against the Front
Range will move out across the forecast area this evening. This
will produce a veering near surface flow that is expected to bring
additional moisture into the region as the upper short wave
trough aloft moves across the region. Expect thunderstorms to
develop over the higher terrain during the early afternoon and
then move across the Central High Plains during the evening and
overnight hours before exiting the forecast area during the early
morning hours on Monday. Some of the storms may be marginally
severe mainly during the evening with hail sizes approaching one

On Monday the upper flow over the forecast area become more zonal
as the exiting short wave trough moves further to the east and a
low pressure system begins moving into the Pacific Northwest.
This system continues across the northern Great Basin and into the
Northern Rockies Monday night and Tuesday with the upper low over
the forecast area becoming slightly more southwesterly with the
leading short wave trough rotating around the low center expected
to move east of the Central Rockies and over the northern and
central high plains by Tuesday evening. During this time a surface
trough deepens along the Front Range with warmer and generally
dryer conditions expected as the surface trough moves east across
the forecast area by late Tuesday in unison with the upper trough
with cooler higher pressure expected to move in behind the
trough/front overnight Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

We will see a pattern shift continue into the extended period as
high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS and an amplified trough
takes shape in the west. All of the global models develop this
trough, each with slightly different timing and amplitude. Forecast
is biased slightly toward the ECMWF.

Wednesday and Thursday: CWA will be situated between the eastern
ridge and the developing western trough with west to southwest flow
aloft. Look for dry conditions both days with highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s on Wednesday and upper 80s on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday: Upper flow becomes southerly as the trough
deepens with a nearly stationary axis extending down from western
Montana through the four corners region. Heights will begin to fall
late Friday and into Saturday with a theta-e boundary developing
across the western portions of the CWA in association with a cold
front. This will give us a chance of showers and thunderstorms that
will encompass the region both days. A few strong thunderstorms are
possible mainly on Friday along and east of the boundary. Highs on
Friday will climb into the middle 80s with middle 70s expected on


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

For KGLD, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about
10z with ifr/vlifr cigs 11z through rest of taf period. Winds
begin from the east near 6kts then slowly veer to the southeast
around 11kts by 18z and continue through rest of period. Am
expecting showers/possible thunderstorms near/over the terminal in
the 07z-10z timeframe as a weather disturbance lifts northeast
across the area. Behind the wave low level moisture increases per
nam/hrrr forecasts. GFS much less which makes for a difficult
forecast. Am going with nam/hrrr for the forecast which brings
increasing low level moisture into the area from the south.
Suppose their could be some drizzle as well.

For KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Could see
ifr cigs in the 10z-18z timeframe. Winds generally from the
northeast slowly veering to the southeast through the period at
speeds under 10kts. Above mentioned weather disturbance looks to
move across the terminal in the 10z-13z timeframe with showers and
possible thunderstorms.




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