Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
429 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The upper low pressure area over the northern Great Basin lifts
into southern Canada by Sunday with southwest flow aloft over the
forecast area transitioning to a more zonal flow by late Sunday
through Monday ahead of the next low pressure area moving in from
the Pacific Northwest by mid week.

The surface frontal boundary currently moving through the region
continues across the plains states today with a cooler area of
high pressure to remain across the region during the weekend. The
remnants of the surface front moves back northward across the
region as a warm front late Sunday into Monday with a weak short
wave trough aloft moving east of the Rockies and across the
central high plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and behind the frontal boundary to be
enhanced by the more moist return flow around the exiting high
pressure area. A few marginally severe storms will be possible as
a result before the storms lift out of the region on Monday.

High temperatures on Monday are expected to be back in the 80s
following high temperatures mainly in the 70s during the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The start of the extended period continues to have southwesterly
flow influencing the region. Expect a quiet Tuesday with afternoon
high temperatures reaching the middle 80s to the lower 90s.

For the rest of the period, the models are showing a deepening upper
level low over southwestern Canada that looks to rotate 2 strong
longwave troughs through the region, one on Wednesday and the other
on Friday. Surface cold fronts associated with these troughs should
reduce the temperatures to normal levels and bring the possibility
of precipitation and gusty winds, mainly on Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Cold front is
beginning to move into northwest Yuma County and has moved through
KAKO. Have seen a couple gusts close to 40 KTS with the frontal
passage. Due to the TAF sites being further from the low level jet
than KAKO, am thinking the winds should be less; plus models show
a the low level jet being slower anyway over the sites. Frontal
passage continues to be in the 8-9z timeframe. As the front moves
through, wind gusts will rapidly increase from the north. The
stratus will lag some behind the front. Was initially doubtful of
IFR ceilings, but locations upstream in Central Nebraska show IFR
ceilings already. The IFR ceiling will be only a few hours at
either site after the frontal passage then raise to MVFR. By late
morning the stratus will be gone and winds will lighten. Timing
of the transition to MVFR is a bit tricky but should occur by 13
or 14z.




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