Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1008 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

Today through tomorrow, with upper level ridging ahead of the
trough, drier and warmer conditions will move into the area which
will bring us 10 to 15 degrees above average highs for this time
of year.

FROPA will impact the area on Friday evening. Expecting some rain
showers at first followed by mixed wintry precipitation as
temperatures drop below freezing. At this time, no accumulation
is expected with high soil temps and light precip.

Main concern for the cold front passage is winds. Felt the
superblend was really underdoing the winds, and weighted them more
towards CONSMOS. This could change easily in the next 24 hours.

After Friday, high pressure will set up northwesterly flow, with
a decrease in winds on Saturday. Come Saturday, temperatures will
drop in the mid to upper 40s with lows that night dropping in the
mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

Dry conditions are expected during the extended period. In the upper
levels there is ridging over the western U.S. producing northwest
flow over the region. On the surface, high pressure to our southeast
will produce a southwesterly winds through Monday allowing
temperatures to be slightly above normal. As the high moves towards
the northeast on monday night, this will allow a weak cold front to
move through the region, impacting the temperatures a bit on
Tuesday; however still holding near normal. There is a possibility
of more frontal activity on Tuesday night/Wednesday which may impact
our eastern areas with colder temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1006 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Breezy
south surface winds gusting up to 25kts will continue through the
afternoon, diminishing by sunset.


Issued at 437 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for today and
tomorrow. Some of our eastern colorado counties could see RH criteria
met, but winds will not be strong enough to warrant an issuance.




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