Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 271012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
MOVE OVER THE AREA.

TODAY THE SECOND LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL FROM LATE LAST NIGHT WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE TRI-STATE AREA BY MID MORNING.  TOWARD EARLY
AFTERNOON A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO AID WITH THE LIFT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.  AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN FOR THAT PART OF THE AREA.

ONE CAVEAT TO STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST IS THE PRESENCE
OF THE ADVANCING RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE 300MB JET FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  Q VECTORS SHOW THE AREA OF DIVERGENCE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM SCOTT AND LANE COUNTIES TO SHERIDAN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES BY MID
AFTERNOON.  TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES NORTH OF THIS
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AS A RESULT.

0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE 40KTS.  AS A RESULT SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.  HAIL UP TO WALNUT SIZE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE A WEAK LEFT EXIT OF THE 300MB JET WILL
BE AS WELL AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 30KTS AND 0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPE
WILL BE 1000-1500J/KG WHICH WILL ALLOW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24.  SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING SO ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO WALNUT
SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS
THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.  MEAN STORM MOTION WILL BE MUCH
SLOWER THAN FURTHER EAST AT AROUND 20 MPH.

THIS EVENING THE STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
WHILE THE STORMS OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE.  THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DISSIPATES.  THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE MEAN STORM MOTION WILL
BE PARALLEL TO THE AXIS OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. IN ADDITION THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED BACK SOUTH DURING THE
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN TRAINING STORMS ALONG IT. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL SW-NE DIAGONAL OF THE AREA. AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES THE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. DUE TO SOME OF THE AREA ALREADY RECEIVING AN INCH LAST
NIGHT AND THE STRONG POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WILL LET THE NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

THURSDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  DURING THE
AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS
BEEN SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST HALF
OF THE AREA.  STORMS SHOULD FIRE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COVERAGE SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.  CURRENTLY
THE FORCING LOOKS FAIRLY BROAD SO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
EXACTLY STORMS WILL FIRE.  GENERALLY THE STRONGER FORCING LOOKS TO
BE OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA.

MEANWHILE 0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 1500-2000J/KG.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 30KTS ALLOWING FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.  AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECLINES.  CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF HWY 27.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW AT AROUND 10MPH WHICH WILL FAVOR
HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE
AREA.  ONE MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL SLOW THE LOW DOWN AND
ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND RAINFALL. THIS MAY LEAD TO PROLONGED LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER
THE EAST 1/3 AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
RAINFALL SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.



FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LATEST RUNS OF
GFS/ECMWF...BUT CWA DOES START THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION...SHIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DOES SET UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. GFS BRINGS
MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE ECMWF SHOWS
MORE DIGGING OF TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES. OVERALL...THE TRI
STATE REGION WILL SEE TRW/RW MAINLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POTENTIAL OF WK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH MID
LEVEL FLOW. WITH DIFFERENCES IN GFS/ECMWF...BEST CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT TUESDAY MORNING. REST OF TIME...SL CHANCE FOR TRW/RW
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...WITH AREAL COVERAGE DEPENDENT ON LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST INTO THE PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR FRONT TO
DEVELOP/STALL OVER NC KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS MODELS SHOW TROUGH
BECOMING CLOSED OFF IN SW KANSAS. DESPITE THE CHANCE FOR INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AS FORECAST PROGRESSES...TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 55-60F RANGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
KMCK TERMINALS AND VIS DROPS TO 2SM OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND IMPACT KGLD DROPPING CONDITIONS AGAIN TO
MVFR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY
12Z...HOWEVER WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE LIGHT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CANT BE RULED OUT. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THIS...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS CONDITIONS REMAINING
VFR. I KEPT IFR IN PLACE AROUND 12-15Z AT KGLD TO COVER
THIS...AND MVFR AT KMCK. IF PRECIP LINGERS LONGER THIS WILL LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER IF THINGS CLEAR OUT DENSE FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH STORMS AGAIN MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

CO...NONE.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN/JTL
AVIATION...DR



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