Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 252015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY.

OTHER THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH NIL POPS.  SOME BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE.  MIXING WILL HELP HOLD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.
WARM 850 TEMPERATURES, SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HELP MAX
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN NUMBERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA. LARGE H5 RIDGE DOES PUSH
OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...BREAKING DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS THRU THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP TO OUR EAST...WILL GIVE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA A SL CHANCE FOR RW/SW ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
QPF EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THIS SETUP GIVING THE AREA A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IN RELATION TO THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE SETUP OF MOISTURE FEEDING IN FROM
THE SW/CUTOFF LOW. LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS DO DIFFER ON EXTENT OF
MOISTURE PUSHING INTO AREA...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES HAVE BEST CHANCES TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS THE SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL COME THRU AREA DRY WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FOR
YET ANOTHER DRY PERIOD. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED TO ANGE
FROM NEAT 70F TUESDAY DOWN TO THE 40-50F RANGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...WITH 30S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ADVERTIZED BY THE
MODELS THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS AS NORTHWEST WIND BECOMES
LIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS



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