Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 221052
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
352 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH WIND EVENT DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS COULD ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT HAS MADE IT`S WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. ALSO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WILL HELP 50+KT WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO BE
PRODUCED MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO ALSO EXIST AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OVER
30 MPH AND GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH. WIND SPEEDS SEEN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR THE BASIS OF WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTERSTATE 70 ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE MOVES INTO
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE NOW SEEMINGLY SWUNG THE OTHER WAY WITH
BRINGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE CONUS COMPARED TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAMPLING APPEARS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SO UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE
TO VARY FOR THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WHAT SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT IS THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GENERAL TIMING BEING
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS
POINT.  RAIN/SNOW MIXES WILL START THE DAY AND BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLACED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE SLOWING NATURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.  BECAUSE
THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY...THINKING THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AT
MOST.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR/VFR MIX OF CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN030-040 UP TO BKN060-100.
3-5SM WITH -RW/-SW BEFORE 09Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH WNW/NW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 10Z
THIS MORNING THEN 25-40KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



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