Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281942
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
142 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS.
THE CWA STILL REMAINS IN BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST AND SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST...CREATING TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES GIVING THE AREA WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANY DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE CWA AT THIS TIME
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT JUST LIKE THE AREA HAD LAST NIGHT. LOOKING FOR
CLRING CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE A NICE COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO MID 50S WEST UP TO NEAR 60F IN EASTERN ZONES. THE TRI
STATE REGION WILL ALSO SEE WIND GUSTS REMAINING AFT 00Z MONDAY...BUT
DROP OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER...CLOSEST TO 03Z MONDAY(900 PM MDT) AND
REMAIN IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE.

ON MONDAY...CLEAR CONDITIONS AT THE ONSET DURING THE MORNING WILL
GIVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A GREAT START TO THE DAY AS SEEN OVER
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS HOWEVER WILL BE LAST IN SERIES OF GREAT
SETUPS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...AS A BROAD LOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS SET TO TREK EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. CLD COVER FROM OUTER
BAND OF SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PUT THE AREA INTO SITUATION SEEING
EARLY DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. WITH
EXPECTED INCR CLDS...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BLW MODEL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MODELS DO BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RW/TRW TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP WEST BY
MIDDAY HOURS. THIS BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP
WILL STAY OVER WESTERN AREAS INITIALLY DUE TO N-S ORIENTATION/MOVEMENT
OF SYSTEM...BUT SHIFT MORE EAST DURING AFTERNOON WITH MOVEMENT OF
PARENT LOW. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS DO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...PROMPTING MENTION OF INCREASING WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 40-45MPH RANGE. WITH THIS JET COMES ENOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTION CHANCE FOR SEVERE TRW...ENHANCED BY CWA BEING PUT IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. LOOKING FOR
BULK OF ANY PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER WESTERN ZONES...WITH BULK OF ACTION
TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WITH THESE STORMS COMES THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ENHANCED BY
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME/HIGH PWAT VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY
POSITIVE TILT TO THE FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
TRI STATE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AREA.  THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH SOME AVAILABILITY OF CAPE IN THE PROFILE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
HIGHER CAPE VALUES...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...CAPE WILL
DIMINISH ALOFT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REDUCE OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY ONCE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL STATUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES...AS SCATTERED LOW/HIGH CLDS WILL MOVE THRU AREA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THRU ABOUT 00Z MONDAY WITH 15 TO 30 KTS..TAPERING TO
5 TO 15 KTS THRU 13Z MONDAY. BY THEN GRADIENT INCREASES AND TAF
SITES WILL SEE 15 TO 30KTS POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FOR KGLD. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH TO KGLD FROM 13Z ONWARD AS LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFT 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN


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