Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 181721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WILL
FLATTEN SOME AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IT.  THE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST. A SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LOW TODAY WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE FA. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS
EXPECTED IN THE FA OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

850 TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY TO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROMM THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS INCLUDES THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN...A PRECIPITATION-PRODUCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THIS PERIOD IS THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT TUESDAY SHALL PRIME
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THOSE NORMALS ARE
EASILY EXCEEDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EXPECTED.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY TRAVERSES THE
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BOUT OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AN INTRIGUING LOOK TO IT AS THERE ARE FAVORABLE HEIGHT
FALLS...AN INCREASE IN 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS...MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER (ACCORDING TO THE GFS) UP TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THESE FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS REPRESENT AN ATMOSPHERE 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN TERMS OF MOISTURE CONTENT. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...DO NOT THINK FLOODING WOULD BE A
CONCERN BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE WIND
SHEAR/INSTABILITY/SHORTWAVE PARAMETERS INDICATE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WINDOW FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A STRONG/SEVERE MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT
INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER BUT IT IS A SYSTEM THAT NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BASICALLY GUARANTEED WITH NO INDICATIONS OF
A STRONG FALL COLD FRONT MOVING IN. PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER
RESUMES THURSDAY BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY
EVENING. TOWARD SUNRISE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH BEHIND IT DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL



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