Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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208
FXUS63 KGLD 220520
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Have issued update to decrease coverage/slow timing of rw/trw into
the CWA. Currently...only activity moving thru Cheyenne county in
CO. Based on current trend...may have to cut back further if more
of an east/northeast push is not seen in next couple hours. Some
tweaks for temps as well. Sunset is providing a much needed
cooling after many locales have seen 100F or higher today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Latest upper air data shows a ridge centered over the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles.  Rotating around the ridge is a short wave
trough currently over the Central Rockies with thunderstorms
accompanying it. At the surface a trough/dry line was located over
the Tri-State Area extending from La Junta and Lamar to Oakley and
Atwood.

For the rest of the afternoon the upper level short wave trough over
the Central Rockies will move onto the Plains bringing thunderstorms
with it.  The surface trough/dry line will move very little during
the afternoon.  Latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicates the surface
feature is capped, but this may change by late afternoon when the
upper level short wave trough deepens over it.  Latest radar shows
storms already developing in southeast Colorado.  Am expecting these
storms to continue tracking toward the Tri-State Area and eventually
moving into Cheyenne County Colorado.

Tonight the short wave trough will deepen over the southwest part of
the Tri-State Area.  With added lift from the surface trough/dry
line am expecting storm coverage to increase during the evening.  By
midnight the short wave trough will begin filling causing storm
activity to diminish.  Cannot rule out isolated storms developing
across the rest of the Tri-State Area this evening due to large
scale lift from the short wave trough.  The nose of the low level
jet will develop over the southeast part of the area this evening.
This may allow an isolated storm to develop along the elevated CAPE
axis that will form along the low level jet nose.

After midnight storm activity should be confined to the upper level
short wave trough that will be filling over the southwest part of
the Tri-State Area.  Any storm activity should end a couple hours
after midnight as the short wave trough continues to fill.
Lows tonight will continue to be above normal.

Friday will be another warm day with heat indices of 100 to 105
across the advisory area. Highs will be very similar to today. The
surface trough will be southeast of the Tri-State Area during the
afternoon. However an upper level short wave trough will deepen
over the center of the Tri-State Area during the afternoon, with
the strongest lift over the northern and southwest part of the
area. Am expecting storm activity to be fairly isolated then
increase in coverage into the evening as the short wave trough
deepens.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Temperatures become more seasonal after Saturday in the long term
period. Chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms persist
through early next week for portions of the area.

Friday night: The ridge over the CONUS breaks down and high pressure
retreats to the west as a shortwave trough advances from the Pacific
Northwest towards the northern Plains. Thunderstorm chances continue
into Friday evening as convection from Colorado moves eastward.

Saturday through Sunday night: The trough travels along the Canadian
border towards the northern Plains on Saturday. Temperatures still
appear to be warm (ranging from the upper 90s to a couple degrees
over 100) ahead of a cold front expected to pass through Saturday
night/early Sunday. At this time, am thinking a heat advisory is not
needed for Saturday due to slightly lower heat indices than previous
days, but will continue to monitor. As the next system nears the
region, afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances return. A few strong
to severe storms are possible across the region. Cooler temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast Sunday behind the front.
Thunderstorms will be possible again Sunday afternoon and evening
with a better chance to the south near the boundary.

Monday through Thursday: High pressure remains over the southwestern
CONUS in the beginning of the extended, with westerly flow over the
northern half of the country. A series of disturbances appear
to pass through the flow and impact the High Plains on Monday and
Tuesday. Ridging starts to rebuild over the western CONUS
towards the later half of the work week. This looks to bring
drier conditions and warmer temperatures back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Conditions...VFR...with scattered mid/high clouds.

Precip/Wx....VCTS for KGLD 06z-0830z Friday...otherwise none.

Winds........For KGLD...WNW around 10kts thru 15z then NE. By
18z...SSW around 10kts. For KMCK...a NW/NE mix around 10kts thru
21z Friday...then SE around 5kts.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-014>016-
     028-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN



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