Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 081931
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A BREAK FROM THE HEAT TODAY...BUT NOT FOR LONG. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COURTESY A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TOMORROW A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO.
EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
EXPECT BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY...BUT SOME CLOUDS FROM THE
MORNING STRATUS DECK BREAKING UP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.
STILL...SHOULD BE MAINLY A MAINLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN FOUR DAYS...IN THE LOW 80S...DUE
TO COOLER AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C.

TONIGHT...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE IN THE
DAY AND MOVE EAST...BUT BASED ON THE MORNING CONVECTION-ALLOWING
GUIDANCE AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH THE CWA. DO EXPECT SOME
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 60...WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. WINDS WILL RELAX

TOMORROW...MUCH WARMER WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE
HEAT RETURNS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY BRING IN WARMER AIR. WITH FULL SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S MAX TEMPS COULD REACH THE MID
90S OR SO. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT WARMER FROM LOW
TO MID 90S...SO HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST BY 2-3 DEGREES TO THE MID 90S. AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH...15 TO 20 KTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30KTS AT TIMES. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TIMING OF THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING
MAY NOT BE WELL-TIMED FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS UNTIL THE EVENING. BY
THE AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE...PLENTY CAPABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HODOGRAPHS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
AROUND 40KTS WITH A GOOD COMBINATION OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR.  SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK CAP AROUND/ABOVE
700MB...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE BEST
LARGE SCALE FORCING ARRIVES AROUND 00Z. STILL...DECIDED TO INCLUDED
ISOLATED T-STORM POPS AS EARLY AS 18Z FOR EASTERN COLORADO FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH. THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP
SHOULD HOLD OFF DEVELOPMENT...BUT SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
INCLUDING STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT STRONG
T-STORMS...WANTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BLOCK STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE WEAK FORCING AT THE UPPER MOST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
MID LEVEL MODEL FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY.  THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MAY PROVIDE SOME CONVECTIVE UPLIFT IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ALOFT WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...STRONGEST MID LEVEL
JET SPEEDS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE MOST FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL JET
POSITIONS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE PERIOD.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WILL APPROACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND THE CAP IN PLACE WILL PROBABLY ERODE OVER SOME
LOCATIONS EACH DAY TO ALLOW SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.  WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
RESULT OF STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEPICTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.  WITH 850 TEMPERATURES RANGING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 29 TO 31 CELSIUS...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WARM
WEATHER TO CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND MCK.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FEW CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS FROM
EASTERN COLORADO AT 50-70KFT AGL...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TOMORROW WILL BE BREEZY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JJM





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