Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 261014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
414 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE HEAT
TODAY AND A CONTINUED COMPLICATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS
TO A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND IT.

AT MID LEVELS...SATELLITE AND UPPER SHOW THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN DID
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF. AT LOW LEVELS...THE SREF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DOING
BEST ONCE AGAIN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...CONVECTION OVER EASTERN COLORADO LAST EVENING
INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES.
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPED AND MOVED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAD ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE ABOUT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION BEING DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE AREA.

BEHIND THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECT STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO SET IN.
THIS...RAIN COOLED AIR MASS AND ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL AFFECT THE
FORECAST IN WAYS THE MODELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATING DUE TO THEM NOT
CATCHING CLUSTER OF STORMS. SO INITIALLY SHOULD STILL HAVE SOME
PATCHY FOG PER LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

SURGE OF COOLER AIR LOOKS TO STARTS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
WERE TOO COOL YESTERDAY WITH MAXES AND OVERDID THE COOL ADVECTION.
MODELS SHOWING VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY...UNLESS MESOSCALE AFFECTS FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS AFFECT
THE TEMPERATURES. SO IF THERE ARE NO RESIDUAL AFFECTS FROM THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR IF NOT
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS MAXES...WHICH A LOT OF THE MODEL
OUTPUT WAS TOO COOL ON. SO WENT IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THE
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AND COLLABORATION...AM GOING TO
HAVE TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD GET UP TO 106.

IN REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL
HAPPEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON IS FRONT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SAME AREA. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES AND TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION.

LIKE TONIGHT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MENTIONED ABOVE...MOVES
IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING NIGHT. THIS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
JUST FINISHED UP TONIGHT. SO HIGHER POPS WILL START IN THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT.
ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME BUT COULD SEE THE NEED TO
HAVE THE POPS INCREASED.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUPPORTING THE ONGOING
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR TREND FOR THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. MODELS INCREASE LIFT
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEPICTED VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. SO DID
RAISE POPS TO LOW CHANCE IN THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NIGHT.

OF COURSE IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL NOW BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN SETS UP...COULD SEE THE NEED FOR POPS TO BE RAISED ONCE
AGAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS AND VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AGAIN THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST MADE MORE DIFFICULT
WITH IMPORTANT MODEL DIFFERENCES. DEPENDING ON HOW THE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE LINGERING PRECIPITATION MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...LINGERING LIFT ON A MOIST AIR MASS COULD GET
PRECIPITATION TO REDEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THE LIFT DURING THE DAY WITH THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST WEST. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD BE A CLOUDY AND WET
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF. BECAUSE OF THIS...LEFT THE
PRECIPITATION ALONE BUT IF GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.

HOW FAR EAST THE LIFT IS AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS AROUND COULD
DRAMATICALLY AFFECT HOW WARM IT DOES OR DOES NOT GET. THERE IS A 20
TO 25 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF MY AREA

MONDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING A LOT LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RESPECT THAT
THE CHANCE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM VERY CLOSE IF NOT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HOW
WET TO MAKE IT DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL...IN HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE THE
LIFT...YOU WANT TO BELIEVE. THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT DID RAISE
THE POPS A LITTLE BUT ONLY TO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. POSSIBLE
THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISE MORE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 AND 700 MB WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN JET FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. DESPITE THE LACK OF FORCING THAT WILL BE PRESENT
ALOFT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.6 INCHES FOR THE DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BRINGS IN
MORE DRY AIR ALOFT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AREA WIDE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME SURFACE CONFLUENCE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE THETA E VALUES BETWEEN 330
AND 350 K ARE STILL PLENTY TO SUPPORT SOME STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
INSTABILITY IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG
FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE A BIT
COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT
ABOUT NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTERLY AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KMCK
SITE. AM THINKING THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG
OUT OF THE KGLD TAF FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS MOVING IN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SOUTH OF KGLD WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW STORMS OFF. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ004-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL



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