Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 301720
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS NOSES INTO THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES
EAST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO PROVIDING FOR
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME WEAK ELEVATED BUT CAPPED INSTABILITY
MOVES TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE NIGHT ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
JET. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
SKY SHOULD BE SEEN BY LATE IN THE DAY. FOR TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE
CLEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE STRATUS POSSIBLY MOVES BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S MCCOOK TO HILL CITY (CLOSER TO SFC HIGH...LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS) AND NEAR FLAGLER WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 40S IN PARTS OF
NORTON COUNTY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST. INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OR SO OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS CURRENTLY
EXPECTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCE FEEDS INTO NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FURTHER
ENHANCING FORCING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS AND INHIBITION IS
WEAK...ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND FROM MCCOOK TO GOVE AND
POINTS EAST WITH LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT
READINGS ABOUT 5F WARMER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
EXCEPT AROUND 50 IN THE FLAGLER AREA.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEST
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BY LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING IDEAS AS TO JUST
HOW MUCH WARMER IT GETS COMPARED TO SUNDAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS
THE BOLDEST WITH THE WARMUP WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF LESS ENTHUSIASTIC.
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS ARENT THE BEST WIND TO ALLOW WARMING LIKE THE
GFS WOULD SUGGEST SO FOR NOW WENT FOR A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES
FROM THE PAST 5 DAYS ALONG WITH BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS TO COME UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE WEEK. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS FLOW AND CROSS OUR REGION. AT THE
SAME TIME... ON THE SURFACE... ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
BROUGHT IN BY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THIS PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

STRATUS DECK WITH HEIGHTS 1200-2500 AGL IS IN THE PROCESS OF
CLEARING OVER KGLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO BRING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KGLD AND KMCK BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DR



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