Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
205 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Issued at 922 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Update to forecast issued to account for areal coverage/timing of
current rw/trw activity currently over western portions of the
CWA. Regional radar now showing most scattered convection
becoming more organized into a line as it moves to the ENE. This
looks to continue for the next several have adjusted
pops accordingly.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

19Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large 597 ridge
centered over eastern New Mexico. WSR-88D KGLD noted small
vorticity center embedded with the morning showers, which
continued to move to the east. At the surface, weak surface
trough/convergent area was noted across eastern cwa extending into
central KS.

Two main concerns for the short term will be ongoing heat and
thunderstorm chances. A weak elevated cap this morning allowed for
scattered storms to develop with rather weak forced ascent.
Similar pattern in store for this afternoon as CU field developing
near higher terrain, but not seeing any organized sfc features to
focus storms on. Convection allowing models have been struggling
with the pattern so overall confidence in evolution is low. A few
storms will form off the higher terrain and push east tonight but
with winds aloft weak and shear minimal not expect to see a lot
of organization. Another round of elevated storms possible tonight
along edge of H7 thermal ridge. Relatively strong WAA develops
across MCK and NRN area and maintains itself for several hours.
Looks like a good chance for LFC`s to be reached in this area and
do not see a reason why a storm or two wont from after 06z.

For Saturday...Cold front will work its way across Nebraska
through the day. While cooler air will likely remain to the north
through the day, surface trough ahead of front may provide area
for potential convective initiation. Instability should be
favorable for severe weather, but wind shear rather weak in warm
humid airmass south of front/trough. Given persistent near sfc
convergence and instability think thunderstorm chances look good,
but with weak shear do not expect to see a lot of storm

For the heat, already seeing 105 heat indices across advisory area
today so will let things stand as is. For tomorrow, looks like
dewpoints will dry out a bit during the afternoon but with temps
remaining around 100 will see some borderline heat index values
across a portion of the area. With the heat continuing, will
slightly expand current advisory for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

At the beginning of the extended period the upper level flow starts
out predominant zonal and then turns meridional by end. Disturbances
are anticipated to pass across the High Plains with the stronger
waves passing on Wednesday and Saturday. This means that chance of
precipitation will persist throughout the extended period with
better chances for precipitation on Tuesday and Saturday.
Temperatures will remain warm, mainly in the low to mid 90s during
the first part of the period. Then cool into the high 80s towards
the end.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Conditions...VFR...w/ mainly scattered mid/high clouds. Brief MVFR
for KMCK.

Precip/Wx....KMCK will see 3sm -tsra from 06z-07z...then VCSH aft

Winds........SSW around 10kts thru 18z-21z then becoming NNE
around 10kts.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-015-016-

NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ080-081.



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