Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 190820
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. MODERATE 850 MB FLOW
WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS MIXED TONIGHT...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AT 15-25 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WILL PROVIDE LIFT BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG THE
FRONT IS DECENT...AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP
AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES...DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE WITH FAVORABLE CIN IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL
CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SINCE CAPE IN THE
HAIL GROWTH REGION IS AROUND 300 TO 400 J/KG. NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATING ANY HAIL OVER 1 INCH SINCE BULK SHEAR IS TOWARDS THE
LOWER END AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH MAY NOT BE THE GREATEST FOR LARGE
HAIL DEVELOPMENT. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING AT 15Z AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INCREASING TO 40% TO 50% AFTER 18Z WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS.
EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.00
INCH TOWARDS SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
BULK OF THAT WILL BE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA SINCE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SINCE SOME INSTABILITY...AROUND A
FEW HUNDRED TO 500 J/KG OF CAPE...WILL LINGER AND BULK SHEAR
IMPROVES TO 40 TO 50 KTS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.

FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 15Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND NOON
MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER/ALW
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99






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