Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 271620
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1020 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  OTHER THAN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW SOME LIFT OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT H7-8 LAYER
MEAN RH IS LIMITED SO WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS NIL.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TODAY AND THEN WARM TO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT
JUN 27 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL
LOOKS TO BE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE... TO THE
NORTH... WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG
WAA OVER THE TRI STATE AREA. THIS COULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING TO AROUND 100F ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
HAVE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL DOWN TO
THE LOWER 80S BY THE FOURTH OF JULY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
STILL CONTINUES AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR
SO BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 02Z-11Z OR SO BEFORE SOME CIRRUS MOVES
OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FROM 03Z-07Z. AFTER 08Z A CONSTANT AND STEADY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH EXPECTED
WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99



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