Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 132124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
224 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

Tonight: Mid/upper level moisture assoc/w shortwave energy
digging SSE through through Idaho at 20Z will overspread the CO
Front Range and High Plains this evening/tonight as the wave digs
SSE through western portions of the 4-corners region. Further
upstream, shortwave energy digging SSE through Alberta/Saskatchewan
this afternoon will rapidly progress SE into eastern MT and the
Dakotas overnight. Some degree of link-age will occur between the
aforementioned waves overnight, resulting in a positively tilted
trough that extends from the Desert SW northeast into the Central/
Northern Plains by 12Z Thu.

Dry adiabatic thermal profiles above H5 (~20 KFT) will saturate
between 00-06Z this evening, presumably in association with some
degree of H5-H25 DPVA /layer lifting/ and increasing upper level
moisture. Thus, overcast cirrostratus should develop by 06Z
tonight. Despite cold advection beneath H5, further saturation is
progged in the H7-H5 layer by 12Z Thu, and guidance is indicating
a potential for very light precipitation (snow) by sunrise,
primarily in eastern CO. Due to the idiopathic nature of H7-H5
forcing and the initial presence of a very dry sub-cloud layer,
confidence is low w/regard to whether or not light snow will be
observed. At this time will indicate a 20-30% chance of light
snow between 09-12Z, generally along/west of the CO border, with
lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday: Overcast skies should abate between 15-18Z, though
low/mid-level cold advection will persist into the afternoon,
perhaps resulting in the development of glaciated diurnal Cu
based at 5-6 KFT agl. Isold sprinkles and/or flurries cannot be
ruled out, though no measurable precip is expected. Expect highs
in the 40s with gusty NW winds sustained at 25-35 mph with gusts
up to 45-50 mph, windiest in eastern CO and extreme western KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 116 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

Friday through Wednesday the main focus will be the diminishing
chances for precipitation Saturday night.

Saturday night an upper level short wave trough will move through
the center of the country following a cold front.  Chances for
precipitation continue to fall as we approach Saturday night.  There
is some lift over the forecast area as the trough moves through.
However dew point depressions are growing, and the trough is
elongating more toward the Desert Southwest.  Even though the
precipitation chances are spread out over more of the forecast area,
have very little confidence of any measurable precipitation
occurring Saturday night due to the weather pattern resembling split
flow. Both the GFS and ECMWF are shifting the majority of the
precipitation to the Southern CONUS.  This seems very reasonable
given the resemblance to split flow which directs precipitation
either north or south of the forecast area.

Saturday there is a potential for the cold front to come through
during the day instead of the night, as has been shown the last
couple of days.  If the cold front comes through during the day,
north winds will be gusty behind the front, with gusts around 35

After this trough passage the upper level ridge will build back over
the Great Basin and onto High Plains, bringing dry and warmer


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the majority, if not
all, of the 18Z TAF period. Mid-level ceilings will gradually
thicken and lower this evening/tonight, in advance of a shortwave
approaching from the NW. Overcast ceilings with bases 4-6 KFT agl
are expected at both terminals by the end of the TAF period,
though the GLD terminal should see the aforementioned ceilings
arrive several hours prior to MCK, by ~09Z Thu.

Breezy NW winds sustained at 20-30 knots with gusts up to 35-38
knots are expected through ~22Z this afternoon, with winds
gradually shifting from the NW to NNW. Thereafter, winds are
expected to decrease to ~15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots,
further decreasing to ~10 knots with the onset of the nocturnal

Winds will abruptly increase at GLD near the end of the TAF
period (~15Z), becoming sustained at 25-30 knots with gusts up 40
knots. Though winds will also increase several hours after sunrise
(15-18Z time frame) at the MCK terminal, winds will initially be
lighter, in the 15-20 knot range w/gusts to 30 knots, and are not
expected to strengthen to ~25G35 knots until after 18Z.




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