Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KGLD 172312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
412 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

As of 1 PM MST (2 PM CST) temperatures range from 37 degrees in Yuma,
Colorado to 49 degrees in Gove, Kansas. Cloud cover in the southern
CWA has pushed south and diminished, yielding sunny skies. West
winds around 10 mph have shifted to the southwest. The low
pressure system that impacted the region over the weekend has
moved well off to the east, leaving split flow aloft in its wake.
An upper trough sits from the Plains to the desert southwest, with
a closed low over southern Arizona and New Mexico.

Tonight: Dry air is anticipated aloft while moisture increases at
the surface. Little is expected in the way of cloud cover. However,
fog will be possible this evening and overnight first developing in
eastern Colorado, then pushing east ahead of a surface trough. The
potential for fog is further supported by light southwest winds. Am
not certain when fog that forms will diminish across the region.
This will be dependent on how quickly the surface trough moves through.
Temperatures drop into the mid teens to mid 20s overnight, making
freezing fog and slick roadways a concern.

Wednesday: The low pressure system in the southwestern CONUS lifts
northeast into the central Plains. Moisture appears to be
lacking, so no precipitation is expected. Highs in the mid 40s to
near 50 degrees under sunny/mostly sunny skies are forecast. Winds
remain around 10 mph as they shift south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

For this extended forecast period, mostly dry weather is expected to
prevail. However, a few opportunities for wintry precipitation will
exist so focus has been placed on these opportunities in this

Quiet weather is expected initially in the period across the High
Plains. A slow moving upper low will be situated over the plains,
slowly migrating east as it undergoes slight intensification.
However, with the low already overhead and moving away, am not
anticipating any notable precipitation with this system. Any heavy
precipitation will occur well east of the region, over the
Mississippi Valley. Some light rain or freezing rain is possible
Thursday night into Friday morning east of a line from Norton, KS to
Leoti, KS but am not excited about this slight chance. For the most
part, precipitation is not anticipated.

The next in a series of disturbances arrives Friday night. A quick
moving, negatively tilted trough ejects from the Rockies and slides
northeast on a course towards the northern United States. Some
guidance members are projecting light precipitation developing on
the northwest side of the departing low. This would favor a band of
precipitation, likely snow. At this time, the quickness of the
system would suggest that only light snow accumulations should be

Finally, a larger disturbance may move across the High Plains next
Tuesday (1/24). This system could be a larger weather maker with
cold temperatures, potential strong winds and snow. For now, this
system is a long ways off and, as with this past system, there is
always potential for the storm track to shift several times before
the storm actually arrives. The path of this system will be critical
as to what winds and snow amounts are observed. Something to keep an
eye on but nothing to start preparing for at this present time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 408 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

The potential for freezing fog and low cigs overnight is the
primary aviation concern. Despite unfavorable light downslope
winds, satellite imagery shows lingering snow cover over
northeast Colorado. In addition, afternoon crossover temperatures
are well above forecast lows. While models typically overdo
fog/low clouds with snow on the ground, cannot discount the
possibility of both advecting in from the west as surface
temperatures saturate. Any fog/low clouds that develop should
quickly burn off after sunrise Wednesday morning with VFR expected




AVIATION...024 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.