Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 301950
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TOP THE
RIDGE TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES FORECAST
TO BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY IN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT LITTLE
MOVEMENT EASTWARD IS EXPECTED WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS AT ONLY 5KTS.
WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 20KTS
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS INDICATED EITHER
DAY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP FRIDAY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OR AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE IN THE DAY.
SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO ASSERT
ITSELF ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE TRI STATE
REGION...AS MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONCERN
AMPLIFIED H5/H7 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
EXPECTING BROAD WNW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 700/500 MB WITH RIDGE TO OUR
WEST...WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. 850 MB
TEMPS DO RANGE FROM +28C UP TO +33C DURING THIS TIME...WITH WARMEST
SET TO OCCUR WED/THURS...COINCIDING WITH RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP OVER
THE AREA. WITH THESE CONDITIONS...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

THE AREA WILL ALSO SEE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DESPITE THE INCREASE TEMPS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING DOWN ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN SURFACE
FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY TRAILING SHORTWAVE. CURRENT GFS A BIT MORE IN-
LINE WITH LATEST ECMWF...MAKING CONFIDENCE A BIT STRONGER IN KEEPING
CHANCE POPS FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE PUSH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS DOES PUT A BIT MORE EMPHASIS
FOR HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL POTENTIAL...THE CLOUD COVER WITH
THESE EVENTS COULD IMPACT DAYTIME HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES AS WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND FORCING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION
AT EITHER TERMINAL...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR



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