Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 260803
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
203 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016
18Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated plume of
moisture from northern Mexico into eastern Nebraska...with short
wave trough digging into Utah and Nevada. At the sfc 1024 mb ridge
was centered over the Nebraska panhandle with easterly sfc flow
ongoing across the CWA.
Although some shallow cu fields developing now along periphery of
sfc high...cloud field very limited in vertical extent and with
the lack of any incoming forcing mechanism do not expect any
storms developing during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Stronger shortwave trough begins to influence the CWA late
tonight through tomorrow afternoon. Fairly good signal that
instability will rise prior to passage of trough and expect
decent coverage of precipitation given timing of the forcing.
Expect storms coverage to peak between 18 and 21z and gradually
shift to the east. Given the expected instability and wind
profiles...would not be shocked to see a severe storm or two but
expect heavy rain to be primary forecast concern at this point.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016
Thunderstorm chances continue into the start of the extended period
before dry conditions return to the High Plains midweek.
Temperatures look to slowly climb through at least Thursday.
Early next week, mid level ridging begins to establish itself over
the High Plains. Some monsoonal moisture should be available on the
western periphery of the ridge as disturbances pass through the
flow, with a boundary stalled south of the area. Kept slight/low
chance PoPs Monday through Tuesday night for mainly the southern and
eastern portions of the CWA.
An upper trough pushes onto the west coast on Tuesday as a second
trough digs south over the eastern CONUS from Canada. The ridge
sharpens between these features through the end of the period, with
the west coast trough slowly advancing east while the east coast
trough creeps south. The region will remain under the ridge and dry
weather looks to persist Wednesday through Thursday.
Temperatures start out in the mid to upper 80s on Monday, gradually
rising into the low 90s in time for Thursday. Low temperatures
remain in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016
Prevailing conditions at MCK and GLD will remain VFR through the
TAF period with intermittent MVFR possible due primarily to low
ceilings mainly between 14Z and 21Z as showers and thunderstorms
move through the central high plains region. Ceilings should raise
as the main area of thunderstorms moves off to the east with only
isolated storms remaining after about 03Z.