Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161705

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1005 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Issued at 1005 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Wind Chill Advisory cancelled early, readings are above 15 below
zero threshold. Minor adjustments made to the grids for the rest
of the day.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Upper ridging will be the predominant upper level feature through
the short term period, resulting in dry conditions and warming
temperatures. However, will be stuck in the Arctic air for one
more day before the warming trend begins. Wind chill advisory
looks on track for this morning and no changes are planned.
Temperatures will warm to slightly above normal on Wednesday and
much above normal on Thursday. About the only wrinkle in the
forecast would be a chance for fog Thursday morning. SREF
probabilities are fairly high in eastern areas, but the light
downsloping westerly winds will be working against fog formation,
so will not mention it for now.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 209 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Friday: SW flow should be in place ahead of trough deepening over
the Western US. Another shortwave trough moving out of the northern
Rockies is shown by some guidance to kick a cold front south towards
our CWA by Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening. While the actual
passage might not be until later this could have the impact of
shifting the position of the surface low further south and
complicating high temps on Friday. Good WAA ahead of this should
support highs in the 60s, but if this holds up just enough we could
see highs near 70F.

Saturday-Sunday: We are continuing to monitor the potential for a
winter storm over our CWA Saturday night and Sunday as the trough
over the western US eventually swings into the plains and closes
off. Timing still favors the Saturday night-Sunday periods, but
there are differences in the evolution of this that lowers
confidence on potential moderate snow/blowing snow. At this time,
worst case scenario would be advisory level snow amounts north and a
brief window for blowing snow. Position of track and position of
H7/H5 closed center will determine track of elevated deformation
zone (heavier snow), and this is still quite uncertain at this
range. Models may also be overestimating warming on Sunday, as
precip/cloud cover in this colder post front air mass may keep highs
in the lower 30s.

Monday: Upper low should be east of the Central High Plains, with
shortwave ridging building back in the CWA. Current consensus shows
slightly warmer temps to near seasonal normals (40s highs/teens
lows) and dry conditions. At this range and with uncertainty on snow
amounts (which could impact this day as well), I stayed in line with


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 930 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. KMCK will
see winds variable at speeds 5kts or less through the period under
a clear sky. For KGLD light and variable winds at taf issuance
become southerly around 6kts by 00z. For the remainder of the taf
period winds slowly veer to the south-southwest near 11kts by 04z
then southwest under 10kts by 14z. Little if any cloudiness




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