Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 260715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

WEDNESDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F FROM TUESDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
AREA REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE
AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS
FIRM ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
BUT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS LASTS LONGER WHEN COMPARED TO
AREAS FURTHER WEST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA BY
DAYS END AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE
POSSIBLE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDING
THE TWO GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (EAST TO WEST). LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST IN
THE MORNING NEARLY REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
STRONGER SFC WINDS MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. PLENTIFUL
DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S PER GFS SOLUTION...THE ECWMF QUITE A BIT COOLER SO
WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z
AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.