Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 190810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
210 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Cold front has settled into southwest Kansas this afternoon,
however as a shortwave trough lifts out of the central Rockies
tonight, cyclogenesis will occur near the Colorado-Kansas border
area. This will effectively lift the old front north as a warm
front, while a dry line develops southward from the low. Models
indicate the warm front will make it as far north as southwest
Nebraska after midnight, which is where any elevated thunderstorm
may develop. Confidence is rather low in that happening, however,
as the short term models keep the convection well north of the
local area. Might see some fog develop along and north of the warm
front as well with moist upslope low levels. Dry northwest winds
will take over by early afternoon as the shortwave trough lifts
out and the cold front sweeps southeastward. Expecting mostly
sunny skies Wednesday afternoon and temperatures warming into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

At the start of the extended period the models are showing northwest
flow aloft while ridging builds over the High Plains region. This
will produce dry conditions for most of the weekend over our CWA.
Another disturbance looks to track across the Dakotas and towards
the Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday. However; only the tail end of
the front associated with this system looks to pass over our local
area. So at this time I see no impact to the region other than maybe
some strong winds.

The next big system to impact the region looks to make its
appearance on Tuesday night and Wednesday. As this system looks to
have similarity to last Friday`s system. As an upper level trough
over the Pacific Northwest dives southeast towards Colorado then.
This looks to produce another round of much needed precipitation on


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Patchy fog may be observed across portions of the central high
plains region overnight, but is not expected to impact either the
MCK or GLD TAF sites.

GLD will remain VFR through the TAF period with LLWS due to
an intensified southerly low level jet ahead that should begin to
weaken as surface winds shift from the southeast to the southwest
by 11Z. West winds turn northwest by 16Z and become gusty through
the much of the day before decreasing somewhat and turning north
after 22Z.

MCK will start out VFR, but should see some lower clouds in the
vicinity of the frontal boundary that pushes into the vicinity
overnight. Conditions should be MVFR by 10Z due to lower ceilings
and improve back to VFR after 14Z as surface winds transition
from southeasterly to southwesterly. Gusty northwest winds are
expected after 19Z and will turn more northerly and lose their
gustiness after 02Z.




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