Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
148 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 148 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are mainly clear w/
some mid level cloud cover streaming thru portions of the area.
Overall for temps...region is seeing a range of single numbers above
zero to the mid teens. Warmer temps are seen where mid level cloud
deck pushes thru. Some light wind is being seen but with little help
in mixing to keep temps up.

The cold start to this morning will give way to a decent day across
the forecast area as most locales will see msunny conditions with a
westerly downslope surface wind. Even with the given conditions...
region will still see highs reaching just below normal with a range
from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. Warmest locales today will be in
eastern/southeastern zones.

Going into tonight...weak shortwave moving over the region will give
most areas increased cloud cover on WNW mid level flow. Surface
ridging approaches from the NW behind will trend N/NW
zones a bit colder than rest of CWA as some clearing will ensue.
light winds will also aid in dropping temps to a range mainly in the
teens...coldest N and W.

Going into Sunday and next Monday...the passage of the shortwave
tonight will give way to H5 zonal flow Sunday and SW flow on Monday
as a stronger trough works into the Rockies from the Pacific coast.
Another weak shortwave from this trough will move eastward across
the northern fringe of the CWA Monday night. Locales there will see
increased cloud cover with a slight chance for -sw along the
Nebraska border. Little to no accum expected.

Temps for Sunday into Monday night will have highs range Sunday near
the same as Saturday...and on Monday w/ a 50-55F range. Overnight
lows will mainly be in a range of upper teens into the 20s...warmest
Monday night.

With the cold overnight low temps...some concerns for Wind Chill
effects for those outdoors. For tonight...Wind Chill readings will
range mainly in the single numbers above zero. Sunday night...Wind
Chill readings will range in the single numbers to the mid
teens...worst potential conditions west. For Monday night...wind
chill readings will be mainly in the teens. For all 3 overnight
period though...the aforementioned numbers will mainly occur after
midnight towards sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Surface to 700mb flow will remain slightly split Saturday night
through Wednesday before trending more zonal as we head into the end
of next week. A deep synoptic low will develop in northern Canada
late Sunday in to Monday with lobes of low pressure rotating around
the axis, moving southeastward out of western Canada and into the
northern Plains. These H7 lows will extend weak troughs southward on
Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. There is quite a bit of difference in
how the GFS and ECMWF handle the synoptic low, with the GFS giving a
solution where the low is in north-central Canada and the ECMWF
settling for a location in the Hudson Bay region. GFS solutions are
consistently dry with less in the way of cold air moving into the
region thanks to a more zonal scenario across the central Plains.
The ECMWF on the other hand gives the CWA a more northwesterly fetch
aloft thus giving us a better chance of a slightly cooler pattern
and better precipitation chances. Currently, the best chance of rain
and snow will occur on Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning,
along and ahead of a weak trough, with the ECMWF being the favorable
model for this solution. Any precipitation will be very light due to
lack of antecedent moisture advection and weak isentropic lift.

High temperatures Sunday will remain in the lower to middle 40s from
northwest to southeast. Warmer highs in the 50s will prevail on
Sunday with cooler air moving back into the region on Monday
trailing a trough. Near normal temperatures in the middle to upper
40s are expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will fall
into the teens to lower 20s on Saturday night with lower to middle
20s expected Sunday night onward through Thursday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1026 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. light and variable
to light west winds will shift to the southwest around 7 knots
during the overnight hours. During the late morning into the early
afternoon those winds will shift to the west/west northwest at 10
to 12 knots. During the late afternoon into the early evening
those winds will become light west to light and variable.




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