Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 310811
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
211 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016
Scattered light showers will linger overnight behind the main line of
thunderstorms as several weak impulses rotate southeast around the
main upper low over the northern Plains and interact with limited
elevated CAPE. Precip amounts are expected to be spotty and light.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon along
the Palmer Divide in northeast Colorado as well as a weak surface
boundary near the Colorado/Kansas border area as a shortwave
trough emerges from the central Rockies. The environment will be
moderately unstable with SBCAPE up to 3000 j/kg. Deep layer shear
is not great, at around 20-30kts, but should be sufficient for a
few organized updrafts and possibly a supercell or two. Storm
motions will be northeast at around 15kts, but right movers will
be considerably slower at 5kts or less to the south. So thinking
flash flood threat will be limited to the stronger rotating
storms, particularly near areas that received heavy rain yesterday
(Wallace, Logan and Gove counties). Feel however the threat will
be too limited to warrant a flash flood watch. Storms will be
moving east with the upper shortwave and waning in the overnight
hours with loss of daytime heating. Showers/isolated storms may
linger into early Tuesday or perhaps into the afternoon south of
Highway 40 where models keep most of the precipitation.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday with northerly
flow resulting in highs around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Upper low will lift northeastward, out of North Dakota and into
southern Manitoba on Tuesday night and into Wednesday. High pressure
will build into the western states and push a previously cut off
area of low pressure eastward across Texas through the day on
Thursday and into Friday. Upper flow will transition to a west by
northwest direction as the H5 ridge becomes very amplified and
nearly stationary over the southwest on Friday and Saturday,
reaching all the way into southern Alberta. An upper low will move
into southern California late on Saturday and moderate as it is
influenced by the blocking ridge. Upper flow will gradually become
north northwest as we head into Sunday. Temperatures will warm
significantly as the ridge influences the region and superblend is
coming in gradually higher with each iteration. I would not be
surprised to see areas in the southern portions of the CWA rise to
90 degrees or higher on Friday and Saturday. The upper low will help
moderate the amplification of the ridge on Sunday and Monday,
pushing it slowly eastward at the same time. Overall, the pattern
will remain warm and dry through Sunday with PoPs increasing
slightly as we head into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon along
the Palmer Divide in northeast Colorado as well as a weak surface
boundary near the Colorado/Kansas border area as a shortwave
trough emerges from the central Rockies. The environment will be
moderately unstable with SBCAPE up to 3000 j/kg. Deep layer shear
is not great, at around 20-30kts, but should be sufficient for a
few organized updrafts and possibly a supercell or two. Storm
motions will be northeast at around 15kts, but right movers will
be considerably slower at 5kts or less to the south. So thinking
flash flood threat will be limited to the stronger rotating
storms, particularly near areas that received heavy rain yesterday
(Wallace, Logan and Gove counties). Feel however the threat will
be too limited to warrant a flash flood watch. Storms will be
moving east with the upper shortwave and waning in the overnight
hours with loss of daytime heating. Showers/isolated storms may
linger into early Tuesday or perhaps into the afternoon south of
Highway 40 where models keep most of the precipitation.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday with northerly
flow resulting in highs around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

The extended period continues to be in good agreement between the
models that the ridge in the western CONUS is still impacting the
CWA. Friday and Saturday still show dry, warm conditions over the
region. For Sunday and Monday night, there are chances for some
precipitation. Current model runs show potential for rain/storms due
to a closed low, that has been sitting over central California,
being pushed and absorbed into the ridges flow those days. With this
happening, moisture from Mexico/Gulf of Mexico gets pulled up and
helps with precip chances. The GFS and European are differing with
precip chances on Sunday. The GFS doesn`t show anything whereas the
Euro does. For Monday, models are in agreement but timing is a
little different; this could be due to the exact placement of the
ridge in the west and the trough in the east. Time will tell which
one holds true. Currently, Monday night looks best for storm
potential with surface CAPEs around 1000 J/kg and bulk shear around
45 kts. Will keep an eye on the storm potential as the day draws
closer.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

The main line of thunderstorms from earlier this evening is well
southeast of the terminals, but scattered light showers will move
back into the area overnight from the west. Have this in the TAFS
as a broken deck at FL100 and VCSH. Winds will be mostly light
and variable until later tonight when a cold front will move
through the terminals from the northwest. Stratus and fog are
expected to develop after 09Z and continue until around 13-14Z
when drier air will arrive.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DLF


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