Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172353
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
553 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  37  30  45 /  70  30  10  10
GCK  29  37  29  45 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  32  40  30  48 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  32  39  31  46 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  26  33  25  42 /  80  20  10  10
P28  29  37  32  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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