Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281108
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND BY
LATE DAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO THE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TOWARDS EVENING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF
ALL AGREE THAT LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL PLACE THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN SPREADING THIS PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS
AT 00Z SUNDAY INDICATED HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. GIVEN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW AND FAVOR A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MID WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR
20 KNOT RANGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALL
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN FALL BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER SUNSET. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, AND NAM IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND GCK
AND DDC BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. AT HYS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  78  54 /  50  50  30  40
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  20  30
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  30  50
LBL  82  60  80  55 /  50  60  30  50
HYS  80  60  78  53 /  50  60  30  40
P28  80  65  79  58 /  50  60  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT


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