Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THERE IS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF A HIGH PRESSURE REGION EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED WEST FROM THE SOUTHERN
OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS, THEN ARCHING NORTH TO THE WEST
SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY OR
TONIGHT, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT 19
TO 20Z TODAY, THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 18 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNDOWN, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SETTLE TO LESS THAN
10 MPH.

TODAY WILL GET A SLOW START ON HEATING, DUE TO SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS.
THE WARMEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.  TONIGHT,
WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO THE MIDDLE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE HAYS AREA SHOULD BE
THE COOLEST AROUND 45F DEGREES, WITH THE LIBERAL/MEADE AREAS
DROPPING ONLY TO THE 48F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SETS UP PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OTHER AREAS WELL OFF TO OUR EAST,
DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND A
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND. THE LACK OF PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS AND A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO WILL QUICKLY
RETURN A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EVEN WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER POSSIBLE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT 10-20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  47  76  50 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  66  47  76  47 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  66  48  78  49 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  68  47  78  50 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  63  46  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
P28  67  46  74  52 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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