Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Strong 553dm closed low, otherwise what forever will be known as
"Ice Storm 2017", is near Topeka and exiting the area at midday.
Deformation wraparound has all but completely dissipated, with
only a few flurries across the northern zones. Areas of reduced
visibility in fog will dissipate early this afternoon, but
widespread persistent low stratus will persist through sunset.
With the low clouds and snow/ice cover, and weak cold air
advection behind the departing cyclone, temperatures are slow to
warm today, unfortunately. Still holding at freezing here at the
office, and will likely only get 1-2 more degrees this afternoon.
NW winds of 10-20 mph will continue to stress iced trees and power
lines. This is a real hazard, and needs to be taken seriously.
Trees (or what`s left of them) and power infrastructure may
collapse at any time in response to NW winds and temperatures
climbing to just above freezing. Be aware of your surroundings,
and look up! Melting will be limited today.

Tonight...Low clouds will very gradually erode. All models
suggest some light snow showers will continue across the western
zones overnight, so included in the grids. Lows Tuesday morning in
the mid to upper 20s, so there are some refreezing concerns on
streets and sidewalks. NW winds will diminish as surface high
pressure builds into the Texas panhandle and the western zones.

Tuesday...Much better, finally. Atmosphere warms some, with 850 mb
temperatures climbing to near +3C. This will allow temperatures to
easily climb above freezing, helped along by the return of
sunshine. With the widespread snow and ice to melt, undercut
guidance by several degrees, but still expecting highs mainly in
the lower 40s Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 132 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Dry conditions can be expected through the end of the week as medium
range models continue to show weak upper level ridging moving out of
the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains during the
An extremely weak flow aloft and drier air in the lower/mid levels
moving into western Kansas will limit precip chances across the area
through at least Friday. A warming trend can be expected through the
end of the week as a developing lee side trough creates a west to
southwesterly flow across western Kansas through week`s end, in turn
helping to draw warmer air into the high plains. Well above normal
temperatures remain likely by Thursday with highs reaching the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

IFR cigs/vis in stratus and BR/fog will be slow to improve this
afternoon into this evening. Visibility expected to improve some
this afternoon, but IFR cigs will persist several hours past 00z.
Cigs will gradually improve overnight, but MVFR is likely to
persist for quite some time as moisture is trapped in the lowest
layers. Melting ice will also contribute to boundary layer
moisture, with some fog potential overnight. NW winds will
mitigate this some, but included VCFG for now. NW winds will be
gusty at 15-20 kts through this afternoon, stressing iced power
lines. NW winds will diminish to near 10 kts by 00z, and weaken
further to less than 10 kts by 12z Tuesday.


DDC  35  28  41  26 /  40  10   0   0
GCK  35  26  41  22 / 100  20  10   0
EHA  36  25  45  28 /  50  10   0   0
LBL  36  26  44  27 /  50  10   0   0
HYS  33  26  40  25 / 100  20   0   0
P28  37  28  45  28 /  60  10   0   0


Ice Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for KSZ030-



LONG TERM...JJohnson
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