Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 212053
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
353 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Convection developing across the Front Range and a weak surface
trough over far NW KS will remain relegated to areas of northwest
Kansas later this evening. Although a general storm moving near
northern periphery of Hamilton or Scott county cannot be ruled out,
the steering flow makes it a very low probability. The surface winds
have gusted higher than the models had suggested due to deep mixing
this afternoon, allowing a spike down in most of the dew points,
which should help make the heat indices slightly more bearable
heading in the the latter part of this afternoon and evening.

Dew points tonight will spike back up to around 60 degrees again
after the mixing subsides. An approaching cold front, and a much
weaker, nearly non-existent surface pressure gradient will eliminate
much of the mixing Saturday afternoon, driving heat indices will
above  100 degrees ahead of this surface front. Heat indices may also
be enhanced by moisture pooling, and the hottest heat indices are
like to be found across south central Kansas counties, (Pratt
Medicine Lodge, Coldwater) in excess of 105 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Low shear, relatively weak bouyancy thunderstorm environment should
be developing along the surface frontal boundary  Saturday evening. The
GFS and  ECMWF models have slowed the timing of the front to as late
as near midnight. Post frontal storms may realize mid level
instability though the night into early Sunday morning, as the
surface boundary pushes southward into western Oklahoma. Broad
surface high pressure will dominate into Monday before southerly
winds become re-established by Tuesday. High temperatures will get
much closer ot normal during the latter half of the weekedn and
into the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Boundary layer mixing will lead to gusts above 20 knots through
the afternoon, before decoupling around 01 UTC. No ceiling or
visibility restrictions expected though the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 104  69  91 /   0   0  30  30
GCK  71  98  67  88 /   0   0  30  40
EHA  68  95  67  87 /   0   0  30  30
LBL  70  99  69  90 /   0   0  20  30
HYS  75  99  69  90 /   0   0  30  20
P28  77 104  74  95 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ031-046-065-066-081-
090.

Heat Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ064-077>080-
087>089.

Heat Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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