Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 100934
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
334 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

...Updated short term, long term and fire weather discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

A highly amplified flow pattern continues in place over much of
North America. A strong upper ridge anchored over the western
states into western Canada while a deep upper low persists near
Hudson Bay and deep trough extends southward into the Appalachians
and Deep South. In between, a dry northwest flow pattern continues
over the central High Plains.

A weak disturbance in the upper flow was pushing a weak surface low
pressure trough eastward across the central High Plains. Westerly
winds behind the trough were holding temperatures in the 30s across
the area early this morning. Winds should become more northwesterly
but continue with a good downslope components the day progresses.
This should result in high temperatures today topping out around
or even a few degrees above the warmest model guidance.

Winds will diminish again with the loss of daytime heating but
will maintain a westerly downslope component. This could keep
overnight lows tonight above MOS guidance but any locations that
really decouple will likely see temperatures falling into the 20s
given dry soil conditions and expectd clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

An upper level shortwave disturbance was currently riding over the
top of the upper ridge this morning. This wave will be diving into
the northern Plains and upper Midwest by Monday morning. A low
pressure system at the surface will move south with the disturbance
while an associated cold front will drop south across the central
High Plains Monday morning. Cold air advection ensuing behind the
front will bring breezy conditions to the area. This should hold
Monday`s high temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s. Surface
high pressure will move through the region on Tuesday, generally
keeping temperatures in the 50s although some locations over far
southwest Kansas could approach 60.

Medium range models show the amplified upper level flow pattern
continuing into mid week. The pattern begins to break down somewhat
through the latter half of the week as the upper ridge retrogrades
into the eastern Pacific. Additional frontal passages are progged
to occur around Wednesday and Friday but temperatures through this
period should remain around or above seasonal norms. At this time,
it does not appear that any appreciable chances for precipitation
will occur through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Dry northwesterly flow at the surface and aloft will result in
prevailing VFR conditions across central and southwest Kansas
through the period. Westerly winds at around 10 knots overnight
will become northwesterly at 10-15 knots on Sunday. There could be
some gusts to around 20 knots or so, especially around Hays.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

A dry airmass remains in place over the central High Plains today.
Humidity levels are expected to fall to around or below 15 percent
with winds increasing to 10-20 mph. While elevated fire weather
conditions are expected, conditions are not expected to reach Red
Flag levels. Monday will see stronger winds with continued low
relative humidity and conditions could become near critical.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  32  60  23 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  64  26  59  22 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  65  32  60  26 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  65  32  61  22 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  65  33  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  70  31  63  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard



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