Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 240254 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 954 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR AREA AS IT PASSES BY A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... PRECIPITATION HAS NOW MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THE DELMARVA. WHERE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING THIS EVENING, IT LOOKS TO BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET, AND RAIN. AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD, WE EXPECT THIS MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR A PERIOD DURING THE OVERNIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR THE I95-295 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS MIXTURE SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCHES RANGE. WE EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MIX IN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM BERKS COUNTY, INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. FOR THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, IT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH LITTLE MIXING. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE LESS QPF, SO THEY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS WHERE MIXING OCCURS. FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL RAIN THIS EVENING AND STAY ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF SATURDAY, WITH MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA, MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FINAL LOBE OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WHICH SHOULD PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA IN THE MORNING TO WELL EAST OF CAPE COD LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE AN INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, EXCEPT ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THEY COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN US AND MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SEVERAL SHORTWV TROFS WILL BE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THE FIRST WILL BE EXITING THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SAT EVENING. ANOTHER WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND IS FCST TO DEEPEN OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A THIRD SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF CAPE COD AT 00Z SUN AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES AWAY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN NW FLOW AND COLD ADVCTN FOR SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS SMWHT COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PRECIP...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD OCCUR MONDAY MORNING... ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS RELATIVELY FAST MOVG SYSTEM...POSSIBLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NRN DELMARVA WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING NWD INTO NJ AND PA. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SNOW AS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT...HWVR SRN DE COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN. AFTER PRECIP ENDS MONDAY EVE...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALL MOVE IN FOR MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID WEEK BUT SHOULD MOVE BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP THU NIGHT OR FRE BUT FOR NOW THIS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AND NOT REFLECTED IN THE FCST GRIDS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS RAIN AND SNOW SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. VFR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MVFR, THEN IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTHWARD. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE WITH A LITTLE SLEET, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. IT SHOULD BE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THEN TO RAIN AT KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN. THE EVENT MAY START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AT KMIV AND KACY BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. A TOTAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE AIRFIELDS AT KRDG AND KABE. GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN WITH SOME ICE POSSIBLE, AS WELL. AN INCH OR LESS IS FORECAST TO FALL AT KMIV AND KACY. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY, AND VFR DURING THE EVENING. THE WIND SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN A NORTHEAST WIND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AS THE WIND BACKS TO THE NORTH THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY EARLY MORNING. MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW. MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE. TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR. && .MARINE... WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND WE WILL EXPAND IT TO INCLUDE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 400 AM SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PASS OFF THE COAST NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET. OUTLOOK... STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD REACH 8 TO 10 FEET IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055- 060>062-105. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071- 101>104-106. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001- 007>010. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ016>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ020>022- 027. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-013- 015. DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMC NEAR TERM...IOVINO/ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...AMC/HEAVENER AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO/ROBERTSON MARINE...AMC/DRAG/IOVINO

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