Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 220622 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 222 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT WIND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ITS JUST ANOTHER WONDERFUL NIGHT IN OUR AREA...A FAR CRY FROM THE RATHER WARM SUMMER NIGHTS OF RECENT SUMMERS. CLOUDINESS FROM CENTRAL PA TO MD SHOULD BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT FROM KRDG TO KESN BY DAWN...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. OTRW PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BUT FAIRLY DRY AT THE SFC SEEMS TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. TODAY...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXCEPT BECOMING M/S KRDG TO KESN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH. THE AFTN WIND DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED IN THIS AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... A TAD MILDER THAN THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT S-SW WIND AND POSSIBLE SOME ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23. THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE AROUND 18C ON WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE A BIT OF A CAP IN THE MID LEVELS MAY INITIALLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO ERODE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN OUR REGION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TIMING ON THE FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE HANDLING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 2000-5000 FT VCNTY KRDG WITH SCT CLOUDS NEAR 4000 FT POSSIBLY SLIPPING EAST TO KABE/KPHL/KILG/ BY 12Z. OTRW VFR WITH A SMALL CHC OF PATCHY IFR FOG VCNTY KMIV. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DE. TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN GUSTS 15 KT. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...DRAG 221 SHORT TERM...DRAG 221 LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 221 MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 221

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