Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 290308 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1108 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST USA. SOME DECOUPLING OCCURRING THIS EVENING AND OVERALL HAVE COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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TRANQUIL WX IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, CAUSING THE WINDS, ALBEIT LIGHT, TO VEER FROM NLY TO ELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. EVEN WITH STRONG HEATING OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80F WILL BE COMMONPLACE.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WE START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST. WARM FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY ONE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. BEHIND THE FRONT MOISTER AIR MASS ADVECTION COMMENCES UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, ATTACHED TO A GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SPILLING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ULTIMATELY SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN EVEN FURTHER BUT INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. FINALLY, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND BEGIN TO CLIMB TOWARDS NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE AN ABOVE AVERAGE START TO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEFORE RETURNING TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR THRU FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TNGT BECOMING NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF PHL. MDT CONFIDENCE. MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.
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&& .MARINE...
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THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED BASED ON THE DOWNWARD WAVE HEIGHT TREND THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS HAD FALLEN TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BY 1100 PM. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND CROSS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS...
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WE HAVE A FORECAST A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY...DESPITE THE LOWERING OF THE SWELLS. PART OF THIS IS RELATED TO RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY STILL IMPACTING OUR ATLANTIC COASTS. FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY...PLEASE SWIM ONLY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LIFEGUARDS. ALL 4 RIP CURRENT RELATED FATALITIES THIS YEAR IN NJ WERE AT UNGUARDED BEACHES! FAMILY/FRIENDS YOU HAVE BESIDE YOU MAY NOT NECESSARILY BE GOOD SWIMMERS AND PROBABLY DONT REALIZE HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO RESCUE ANOTHER HUMAN BEING IN THE OCEAN!! SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES WHERE THE LIFEGUARDS ARE TRAINED TO WATCH FOR YOUR SAFETY!
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER RIP CURRENTS...DRAG

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