Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 032119
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
319 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT. AN UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROF, ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY,
MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP, MAINLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
THURSDAY OVER THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND
THE AIRMASS BECOMING UNSTABLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...WHEN COMPARED TO THE
QUIET/WARM CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT/GLACIER PARK AND THE CUT BANK AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THIS REGION. THUS
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THIS AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10
TO 0.25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED/LIGHTER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. ON
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. EXPECT COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A BUTTE TO BOZEMAN LINE. THE GFS/EC PROG A BIT HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER...IN THE MONIDA/WEST
YELLOWSTONE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH UP TO 0.50 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...THE GFS/EC DIFFER A
BIT...AS THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE EC KEEPS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO FALL OVER THE REGION. THUS...I KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS FROM SUN THRU TUE...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MILD ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN TURNING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1732Z.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  83  47  81 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  41  80  44  73 /   0  10  10  30
HLN  46  82  48  82 /   0  10   0  30
BZN  40  79  44  81 /   0  10   0  30
WEY  36  65  40  68 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  41  76  44  78 /   0  10  10  30
HVR  46  85  48  83 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  46  82  49  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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