Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 252047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Most of the forecast area lies
beneath an area of weak flow aloft between upper level lows over
the Great Basin and central Canada with an upper level ridge
building onto the West Coast. The airmass has largely dried out
above the lowest levels and skies will clear after sunset.
Exception will be SW MT where moisture associated with the Great
basin low will spread north with scattered showers and possibly an
isolated evening thunderstorm near the ID/WY border. Little change
in the overall weather pattern occurs through Tuesday with
dry, sunny and stable conditions over central and north central MT
and more cloud-cover and a chance for showers/isolated
thunderstorms across SW MT. The ridge off the west coast moves
inland Wednesday for additional warming and drying across the
entire forecast area. Hoenisch

Wednesday night through Monday...A disturbance will move across
British Columbia and Alberta and keep Central Montana under the
influence of a rather flat ridge Wednesday night and Thursday. The
air mass will warm and little effect should come from the
disturbance aloft. Heights aloft will build Thursday night as the
disturbance moves east and an upper level ridge will be over the
Rockies by Friday. This ridge will move east of the zones by
Saturday and allow moisture to move across into the zones. A low
pressure trof will approach the West Coast and, with heights falling
aloft and the increased moisture, the air mass will become a bit
unstable. The trof will move over the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night and keep the air mass over Central Montana unsettled. This
trof will also develop a low pressure low over Alberta and
Saskatchewan, thus tightening the surface pressure gradient across
the Rockies and adjacent plains. Some breezy conditions will
develop. The trof will remain over the region through Monday night
and keep unsettled conditions and a chance of precipitation in the
forecast. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
Upper level trough will linger over Montana through Tuesday morning
but widespread clouds and precipitation will continue to move off to
the east. However, a weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest
will bring isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to
far Southwest Montana this afternoon and evening. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail but areas MVFR ceilings remain possible. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Runoff from recent heavy precipitation continues to decrease.
High water will continue to recede and the small stream flood
advisory over Judith Basin and Fergus counties has been allowed to
expire. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  77  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  44  78  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  79  53  85 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  42  75  47  81 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  36  67  38  71 /  40  20  10  10
DLN  45  74  48  79 /  20  10  10   0
HVR  43  77  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  44  74  52  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.