Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 281527
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
927 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...

Increasing moisture associated with the southwest Monsoon has
brought mid level clouds into western and southwest Montana.
Scattered weak echos appear on composite radar reflectivity but
little or no precipitation would be expected to reach the ground
at this time. Precipitation may be possible later this afternoon
with scattered high-based thunderstorms along the Continental
Divide and over the mountains of southwest Montana. No changes
made to the inherited forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
Light easterly winds are expected today along with mainly dry
conditions. High and mid-level clouds will increase today as a weak
upper-level disturbance moves through the area. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible in the higher terrain near KHLN and KBZN as
well as the Rocky Mountain Front, however forecast confidence is low
that a thunderstorm will impact the terminals. Given the
uncertainty, have added a PROB30 for KBZN and KHLN this afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

Today through Wednesday...Very little change is expected in the
short term period as an upper level ridge remains anchored over
the western US. Models continue to indicate, and satellite/radar
imagery confirms, that monsoon moisture will move northward along
the leading edge of this ridge each day. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity will mainly affect far Southwest Montana and
the western mountains but a few storms may also move out over the
North Central Montana plains at times. Main risk expected from any
storms that develop will likely be gusty winds and lightning
strikes but can not rule out that brief, locally heavy rains may
develop beneath the central core of some cells. Otherwise,
temperatures will be above seasonal averages, but not excessively
so, and surface winds are expected to be generally light. mpj

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  57  90  59 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  89  53  89  54 /  10  20  10  10
HLN  94  59  91  60 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  90  54  87  53 /  10  10  20  10
WEY  81  44  75  43 /  20  20  40  30
DLN  88  54  84  54 /  10  10  30  20
HVR  93  56  94  57 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  90  55  88  55 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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