Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 102042
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
242 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Thursday through Saturday...Hot and dry conditions will continue
as the slowly moving large scale ridge continues to be dominant
force in the weather pattern over much of the Western United States.
Will continue to remain in a transition period on the edge of the
ridge through at least the next 24 hours. This will allow for
showers to develop as moisture allows. The best chance will be
with afternoon heating over the Mountains of Southwest Montana and
across the highline Thursday Evening as a weak disturbance moves
across the northern counties. By Friday a slight increase in
available moisture will allow for more showers and thunderstorms
to develop with afternoon heating...however showers will likely be
limited to scattered at best coverage. Another round of showers
will again occur on Saturday during peak heating mainly over the
higher terrain. Suk

Saturday night through Thursday...An upper level ridge high
pressure will be over the region this weekend...then the upper level
ridge will shift westward on Monday...as a fairly strong upper level
low pressure over the Great Lakes area rotates a bit cooler air into
the region. As the upper level low over the Great Lakes begins to
move eastward on Tuesday...the upper level ridge will also start to
shift back eastward for Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Thus
fairly warm temperatures are expected for Sunday...then seasonable
temperatures for Monday and Tuesday...with a return to slightly
above normal temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. In terms of
precipitation...confidence is quite low on any one given day...thus
most days the chances for thunderstorms are fairly isolated. The
best time frame for any storms to occur will be late afternoon
through around Midnight...but again the thunderstorm activity should
be fairly isolated and not have significant impacts on any one given
day. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1725z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the TAF period.
early this evening. Clouds will develop over North Central MT...with
a chance for light rain showers in the Cut Bank/Havre areas after
00z. Southwest MT should remain dry today with isolated
thunderstorms possible over the mountains. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  78  54  86 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  51  75  50  84 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  58  84  58  88 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  53  83  54  83 /  10  30  20  40
WEY  44  79  44  76 /  30  50  40  50
DLN  54  84  55  83 /  10  20  20  40
HVR  56  80  53  88 /  20  20  10  10
LWT  54  78  53  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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