Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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188
FXUS65 KTFX 042311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
410 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA HAS TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT FOR
GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE PRECIPITATION AND WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF AND
SURFACE LOW EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THE
RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST EARLY SATURDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS. A HIGH WIND WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES TO EASTERN MONTANA. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS RESULTING FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. AGAIN, QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER SATURDAY BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. READINGS BOTH
DAYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY`S
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS, FORECAST MODELS AGREE ON
STRENGTHENING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE AREA DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ON TUESDAY, BEFORE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
AND SOMEWHAT FLATTENS THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE PLAINS, BUT
THEY COULD APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM UP DUE
TO LINGERING SNOW COVER.
COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2308Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY FRIDAY NOON. LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS, INCLUDING
KLWT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  47  36  42 /  20   0  10  20
CTB  27  45  35  41 /  10   0  10  10
HLN  23  40  28  41 /  20  10  10  20
BZN  14  33  21  38 /  20  10  10  20
WEY   8  24  18  27 /  50  20  20  40
DLN  15  32  24  36 /  10  10  10  30
HVR  22  44  33  45 /  20   0   0  20
LWT  22  40  30  42 /  30   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR MTZ009-048.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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