Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 262331
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR OR
RECORD BREAKING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST MT
AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BRUSDA

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES
ON MONDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AT LOWER ELEVATION PLAINS/VALLEY
LOCATIONS. BUT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS BOTH RAW AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A FLATTENING
OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF ON MON EVE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE BUT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH
NEEDED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION WILL
HIGHLY LOCALIZED TO INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS.  AS THE TROF EXITS INTO
EASTERN MT MON NIGHT, THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
TUES AND PART OF WED.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S.  SOME MARKED MODEL
DIFFERENCES STILL SHOWING UP FOR THURS-FRI AS THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER NV/OR/WA WHILE THE ECMWF REDEVELOPS THE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.  THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED BREAK FROM THE HEAT WITH
HIGHS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S AND SOME SPOTTY MOISTURE SPILLING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURS EVE.  CONVERSELY, THE ECMWF PUSHES OUR TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
MODEL ENSEMBLES LEAN A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BUT SHOW
LESS PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW FROM WED ONWARD, HELPING TEMPS CREEP
BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 90S.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  97  62 100 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  95  56  98 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  61 100  64 101 /   0  10  10  10
BZN  51  96  53  97 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  42  87  44  88 /   0  20  20  20
DLN  54  93  56  94 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  58  98  60 100 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  57  93  60  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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