Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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992
FXUS65 KTFX 281554
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
954 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...

954 AM UPDATE...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO MATCH UP WITH CHANGES WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, WHICH AMOUNTED TO ONLY NEGLIGIBLE TWEAKS.
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

8 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA
(BASICALLY ALONG AND BETWEEN A GREAT FALLS-TO-LEWISTOWN LINE AND A
HELENA-TO- BOZEMAN LINE) TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS WILL
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER 00Z. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS, PRECIPITATION, AND FOG.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF A NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT MOISTURE
INTO MT TODAY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERALL TODAY, BUT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL AS WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 3000-4000FT THIS MORNING
WITH WET SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX BRINGING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
PRIMARILY TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000FT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH MUCH OF
THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THIS REGIME
WITH FOCUS MORE OVER THE MTNS OF WESTERN AND SW MT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN END TO THE COOL UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF THE PAST WEEK. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF WEAKENS TO
START THE PERIOD AS THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE DRIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS BUILDING ACROSS THE
NORTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE
UPPER TROF SPLITS ON SUNDAY WITH THE WESTERN PORTION RESIDING OVER
NEVADA/UTAH AND THE EASTERN PORTION FILLING AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. CIRCULATION AROUND THE WESTERN LOBE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY USHERING IN WARMER
AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  30  53  34 / 100  20  20  20
CTB  44  31  52  33 /  70  30  20  20
HLN  49  33  57  36 /  80  20  30  30
BZN  47  31  55  34 /  80  20  20  20
WEY  44  27  47  29 /  30  20  50  40
DLN  49  30  55  34 /  20  20  40  40
HVR  52  34  55  36 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  41  31  49  34 / 100  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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