Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 081804
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1158 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Minor changes to the forecast this morning. Expecting a warm and
dry day with light winds across Central Montana.
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1758z.
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period with relatively
light winds and mostly clear skies. An area of low to mid level
smoke, originating from wildfires in the Northwest Territories, will
remain to the east of all terminals. The smoke will move
southeastward through Saskatchewan, eastern Montana, and North
Dakota. Uttech

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2014/

Today through Thursday...Water vapor satellite indicates a ridge
moving over the Rockies along with a very dry air mass. At lower
levels, a surface high is over Eastern Montana and the Dakotas while
to the west a thermal ridge creeps closer to the zones...and temps
will be trending higher. The southwest zones will become unstable
this afternoon although dry conditions will make any convection hard
to develop. The high pressure ridge will move over Central Montana
Wednesday and temperatures will max out well above seasonal
normals. A trof over British Columbia will flatten the ridge during
the day and heights will lower slightly through Thursday. Afternoon
instability Wednesday is more widespread although weak. Convection
is still possible to the south, however, as moisture from the
southwest United States moves north into the southwest zones. Lower
level winds will strengthen Wednesday night and shift northward
Thursday morning as a cold front crosses the northern portions of
the CWA. Temps will cool slightly, mainly across the north, but
overall the region will remain well above normals. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Overall and upper level ridge of
high pressure will continue to reside over the Pacific Northwest
through the period. The upper level ridge will try to flatten a bit
at times...or retrograde a bit westward...however the main impact
weather-wise for our region will be warm temperatures and the chance
for a passing thunderstorm. In terms of temperatures...the GFS has
been a touch to warm while the EC has a been a touch to cool...thus
used a blend of these models. For precipitation...confidence is
quite low in timing and amounts of any precipitation during the
extended period...thus generally kept isolated to scattered
thunderstorms over the region. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  86  57  90  59 /   0   0  10  20
CTB  82  55  88  55 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  89  60  92  62 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  86  52  89  55 /   0  10  20  20
WEY  81  44  82  44 /   0   0  30  30
DLN  87  56  88  55 /   0  10  20  20
HVR  86  54  93  60 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  81  54  88  58 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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