Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 271531
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
931 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR TODAY,
MAINLY TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES CHANGES. OVERALL
FORECAST APPEARS TO ON TRACK, AS LIGHT RAIN AND MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, RANGING FROM 40S IN
THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.
COULSTON


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS WILL
THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AND BEYOND. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS, PRECIPITATION, AND FOG.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016/

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ELONGATED/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM ALBERTA SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE US HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG ITS AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND MT WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
CONTINUATION OF THE CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING LIGHT AND RELATIVELY
SCATTERED WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND CONTINUED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, CONCENTRATING
GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER N-CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW SHOULD
BEGIN TO SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL INITIALLY
BRING SOME DRYING AND CLEARING TO THE REGION, HOWEVER THIS WILL LEAD
TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY AND
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD. A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY
CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE TO THE AREA
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONTANA. THE UPPER TROF
MOVES LITTLE ON SUNDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER. AGAIN, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY. THE TROF FILLS ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS, THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY FURTHER
WARMING THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
MONDAY CULMINATING WITH A RETURN OF 70+ DEGREE WEATHER FOR MANY
LOCATIONS MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  31  47  31 /  40  40  30  10
CTB  47  31  47  31 /  30  40  50  20
HLN  52  35  53  35 /  30  20  30  20
BZN  51  32  51  32 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  45  27  47  26 /  20  20  30  20
DLN  53  31  53  31 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  46  33  48  33 /  50  50  50  20
LWT  42  32  44  31 /  60  60  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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