Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 270950
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
350 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...Rather complex weather pattern continues
over the area. Upper closed low remains stationary over Nevada and
continues to send moisture across southwest Montana and into
central and north-central Montana. Models and current radar
imagery in agreement with keeping the greatest plume of moisture
along a line from Dillon to just east of Great Falls to Havre.
Surface high pressure over western Alberta continues to try to
nose south and is inhibiting widespread precipitation across the
northwest portion of the county warning area. Currently, a large
plume of precipitation is moving across Judith Basin, Choteau, and
Blaine counties. Radar indicates another band of precipitation
over Eastern Idhao beginning to move into southwest Montana. As
the closed low moves north and east on Sunday, the heaviest
precipitation will continue across southwest Montana and shift
further east across the northern plains. By Monday, the upper low
opens into a broad upper trof across eastern Idaho/western
Wyoming. The heaviest precipitation will continue across the
southwest with scattered showers across central and isolated
showers over north-central Montana. Temperatures will remain below
seasonal averages through the period.

Monday night through Saturday...The weather pattern will remain a
bit unsettled over the region through Thursday...but then quiet and
fairly nice weather conditions should return by next weekend. A
slowly moving upper level low will affect the weather pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday...as it pushes northward from the central
Rockies into the upper Midwest. Expect scattered showers to pass
through the region...but no organized areas of widespread rain are
expected. For Thursday...the flow aloft shifts to the
Northwest...and a fast moving upper level disturbance will slide
southeastward through the region. This disturbance will also produce
some scattered showers as it moves through. Then for Friday and into
next weekend...both the GFS/EC prog an upper level ridge of high
pressure to rebuild over the Northern Rockies. This will result in
mostly dry conditions...along with a return of mild/warm
temperatures. Thus afternoon highs will be in the 60s on
Tuesday...and then cool a bit for Wednesday/Thursday with highs in
the 50s. Afternoon temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s
on Friday...then continue to warm on Saturday...with 70s expected
for many areas. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0452Z.
Deep upper level trough will continue to move inland tonight through
Saturday with deteriorating conditions through the remainder of
tonight from south to north. Surface low pressure deepening over the
Great Basin will send increasing moisture northward with widespread
showers now developing over SW MT, spreading north into
Central/North Central MT by 12z Saturday. VFR conditions this
evening will degrade to MVFR from south to north later tonight into
Saturday morning along with increasing mountain obscuration. Low
ceilings and widespread precipitation will continue at most
terminals into Saturday evening.  Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  43  52  42 /  70  80  40  40
CTB  53  39  53  39 /  50  60  30  40
HLN  58  45  58  42 /  80  80  60  50
BZN  58  41  54  39 /  90  90  60  60
WEY  59  35  54  31 /  90  90  70  60
DLN  57  42  55  41 /  90  90  70  50
HVR  58  42  55  40 /  70  70  40  50
LWT  57  41  51  39 /  80  80  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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