Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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817
FXUS65 KTFX 061602
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
900 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE AND ADJUSTED POPS FURTHER EAST AS FRONT IS
RAPIDLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. QUICK SHOTS OF RAIN OR
SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1230Z.
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 21Z TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SHOWERS BEGIN
TO DECREASE OVER THE ROCKIES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 330 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS MT TODAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING S FROM AN AREA
OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
SE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LIMITED
WITH THE FRONT AND ONLY AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO BE ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS AND
WILL SPREAD EAST THIS MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 60-75KT WINDS AT 700MB SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION BY MID-DAY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO MIX
DOWN THESE WINDS ALOFT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL MT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GALLATIN AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW EXIT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.
WINDS ALOFT AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX TONIGHT FOR
DIMINISHING WINDS AS DRIER AIR ALSO MOVES IN FROM THE NW. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AND SHIFTS INLAND
MONDAY BEGINNING A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOENISCH

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT/BREEZY WINDS TO PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR BUT THE EC IS A BIT WETTER THAN
THE GFS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS THE REGION. THUS THEY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE REGION. OVERALL THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE ON
THE LOW SIDE LATE NEXT WEEK...AND TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WILL COOL A BIT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  27  43  30 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  43  25  40  28 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  40  24  39  26 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  37  15  34  18 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  26  12  28  11 /  40  30   0   0
DLN  36  18  35  23 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  49  25  42  22 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  46  22  35  23 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MTZ009>015-
044>055.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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