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000
FXUS65 KTFX 282145
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 PM MST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday...Weak surface cold front continues to push
slowly across the area. Satellite imagery shows a large
post frontal area of low and mid clouds moving across the
northeast portion of the county warning area. Clearing behind this
area is now approaching the International Border and skies should
continue to gradually clear from north to south as the night wears
on. Weak ridging on Thursday will allow the dry pattern to
continue through Friday before another cold front, and associated
precipitation, approaches the area from the north late Friday.
Temperatures continue to slowly fall this afternoon behind the
cold front. Afternoon readings will be cooler to close out the
week but will still be above seasonal averages.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Forecast models continue to
indicate a trend to a colder and wetter pattern beginning this
weekend and through next week. The first weather system will
bring colder temperatures and light snow to north-central and
southwest Montana Friday Night through Saturday. The ECMWF keeps
the bulk the moisture and precipitation across eastern Montana
while the GFS brings it further west to areas along the
Continental Divide. Have trended more towards the GFS solution
and increased PoPs to high chance over the plains and likely in
the mountains. Snow accumulations will generally be light with 1
to 3 inches possible across lower elevations and 2 to 5 inches in
the mountains at and above pass level. Another surge of cold air
and light snow will move over the area Sunday through Monday with
the possibility for mixed precipitation Monday morning as a
Pacific weather system and milder airmass move over a cooler
airmass at the surface, but forecast confidence is low. Forecast
models indicate that an active weather pattern will persist
through much of next week, however there remains a lot of
uncertainty regarding timing, precipitation coverage and amounts
with each disturbance. Have increased PoPs to around climo with
temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740z.
Weak cold front will continue to push south across the area this
afternoon. An area of low clouds and patchy fog will persist along
the International Boundary. Skies will generally clear across the
area after 00z. Winds will be light. VFR conditions prevail with
isolated MVFR/IFR conditions along the International Boundary due to
low ceilings and fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  46  28  43 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  26  46  26  43 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  22  41  20  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  20  39  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  15  34   8  35 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  25  44  22  44 /   0  10   0  10
HVR  24  40  24  41 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  24  42  24  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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