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000
FXUS65 KTFX 261714
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1007 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
The area covered by snow appears to have diminished since the
earlier update so have lowered the chances of snow over most of
southwest Montana for the rest of this morning. Observations still
indicate a band of snow from Whitehall to Bozeman and also some
snow between Helena and Great Falls so went with relatively higher
chances of snow in those two areas. As for other changes lowered
sky cover for this afternoon over the east slopes and slightly
over southwest Montana. Forecast highs for today look OK but did
lower the Belgrade/Bozeman area slightly due to recent snowfall.
Blank

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
Light snow continues to fall over portions of MT. However...it is
very light and mostly just heavy flurries...with little/no
additional snow accumulations expected at the airports. Low clouds
will continue to affect the region through mid afternoon
though...and mountains/passes will be obscured. It clears out a bit
overnight with VFR expected...but another cold front moves south
through the region on Friday. Expect a wind shift to the north
Friday morning over North Central MT...with more light snow
developing Friday afternoon over portions of N Central MT. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 745 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2015/

UPDATE...
Snow is being reported over portions of southwest Montana so have
changed the forecast from a chance of snow to snow likely for the
area. Expect less than an inch additional accumulation before snow
tapers off later this morning.

4 AM Morning Discussion...
Today through Saturday...There will be a few lingering snow showers
or flurries this morning across central and southwest Montana,
however any additional snow accumulation will be less than a
half-inch. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected through Friday
morning before the next weather system moves into the region Friday
night and Saturday. As the main upper-level area of low pressure
passes south of the Treasure State on Friday night and Saturday,
weak disturbances coupled with a cold, Canadian airmass will keep at
least a slight chance to chance of light snow across the forecast
area. The GFS remains wetter than the ECMWF, however upslope flow at
the surface will support up to an inch of additional snow
accumulation through Saturday. Temperatures will be well below
seasonal averages through the forecast period with highs in the
upper teens to low 20s over north-central Montana and 20s to near 30
across southwest Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings
around zero. MLV

Saturday night through Thursday...An upper level low pressure trof
will be over Central Montana early Saturday night but high pressure
will be building aloft by early morning. The airmass will dry and
begin to warm Sunday. Another low pressure trof will be moving
through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold front
will cross the Canadian border by late afternoon or evening. This
will bring widespread snow across the region Monday night and early
Tuesday. Models show a cold surface high in the mid 1030s so max
temps will likely remain in the teens--well below seasonal normals.
The airmass will dry again Tuesday night. Flow aloft will remain out
the north and northwest. Several disturbances will be moving through
the northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which could
bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the Rockies
through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   4  21   2 /  40   0  20  30
CTB  17   3  17   0 /  20   0  20  20
HLN  27   9  27   9 /  40  10  20  30
BZN  23   3  29   5 /  70  10  20  40
WEY  29  -3  30  -1 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  30   9  31   7 /  30  10  30  30
HVR  16  -4  20   1 /  10   0  10  20
LWT  18  -1  23   1 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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