Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 291741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGE TO UPDATE SKY CONDITION THROUGH TODAY
AS PARTIAL CLEARING HAS MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH BROKEN LOW- TO MID- LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL FUEL ISOLATED/SCATTERED...MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FROM 20Z TO AROUND 02Z SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY/AREAS OF
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG COULD CAUSE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS A QUIETER...WARMER
AND DRYER WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD LOW/MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. THUS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A
TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL YET.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION...ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  34  56  35 /  10  10  20   0
CTB  51  32  56  34 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  36  57  36 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  53  34  54  33 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  47  28  46  27 /  30  30  20  10
DLN  51  34  54  33 /  30  20  20  10
HVR  56  36  60  36 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  49  34  51  33 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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