Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 192346
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
546 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
West to northwest flow aloft will continue over the region through
the remainder of the weekend. Precipitation is not expected and
areas of smoke and haze from area wildfires will persist.
Temperatures will warm back above seasonal averages on Sunday. Dry
conditions and very warm to hot temperatures will continue to
affect the region through at least mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Surface front brought higher humidity
and cooler temperatures to the northern half of the CWA today.
This feature is expected to continue moving southward this evening
with slightly cooler temperatures possible in Southwest Montana on
Sunday. However, models are in good agreement that temperatures
across North Central and Central Montana will rebound back toward
seasonal averages. Dry west to northwest flow aloft continues
across the region on Monday with temperatures remaining near or
above seasonal averages. Winds are expected to remain generally
light over the next few days so fire weather concerns are not
anticipated. mpj

Monday Night through Saturday...A high pressure ridge aloft will
traverse the CWA from west to east Monday night through
Wednesday, resulting in warmer temperatures and primarily dry
weather. Somewhat cooler temperatures, along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms, remain possible next week Thursday and
Friday due to an upper-level trough digging southward and
eastward from British Columbia. Drier conditions and slightly
warmer temperatures may return by Saturday of next weekend, as
another high pressure ridge aloft builds-in from the south and
west. Low and high temperatures are still expected to be near or
slightly above-normal during the period. The warmest readings
will likely occur Tuesday and Wednesday, when the first of the
two aforementioned high pressure ridges is overhead.
Jaszka

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0000z.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period...however...some smoke could bring MVFR visibilities at
times. A weak and dry cold front will continue to progress across
Montana this evening...bringing some breezy and northerly winds.
Mid to upper level clouds are also possible with this feature.
Winds will diminish tonight and turn more westerly for
tomorrow...with little cloud cover expected. Area wild fires may
bring some smoke and MVFR conditions at times...mainly from KGTF
to KHLN to KBZN. Hazy conditions will also cause mountain
obscuration at times. Anglin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for portions of the forecast
area until 9 pm MDT this evening for low RH and gusty winds.
Additional fire weather highlights are not anticipated through
mid-week but still remain possible due to continued very warm, dry
and potentially breezy conditions. Next widespread fire weather
event is expected around Thursday as the upper ridge collapses and
a surface cold front spreads gusty winds and scattered dry
thunderstorms across western and central Montana. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  45  77  45  80 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  52  83  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  48  82  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  37  76  38  76 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  46  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  49  81  50  83 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  49  79  50  80 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Deerlodge/Western
Beaverhead National Forest...Eastern Beaverhead National
Forest...Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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