Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 031647
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
947 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE...
Snow has moved out of southwest Montana with the possible
exception of the West Yellowstone area so have updated the
forecast to reflect this. Also cloud cover is generally less than
forecast so have gone with mostly sunny/partly cloudy conditions.
For this afternoon the airmass will be stable with not much
moisture so have dropped any mention of snow and also continued
the trend of having lower sky cover. As for other changes lowered
wind speeds slightly in the north for the rest of today and raised
highs along the east slopes and also at Helena a little. Finally
will cancel the wind chill advisory as wind chill temperatures are
generally above -20 degrees. Might have to issue another one for
tonight and early Wednesday morning for north central Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
Latest satellite imagery shows mid-level cloud decks, and isolated
-SHSN vcnty KBZN, continuing to push into southeastern MT and
northern WY. Have kept mention of VCSH at KBZN through mid-morning,
then expect dry conditions with scattered high clouds at all TAF
sites this afternoon. Northerly surface winds should remain less
than 15 kts over much of the region today, with a few gusts near 20
kts possible vcnty KHVR this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 420 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2015/
Tuesday through Thursday...An initially cold start to the short
term period will last for another 24 hours. Chinook winds will
begin during the day on Wednesday and should end the latest cold
spell. These warming winds begin to push out much of the
seasonably cold air that will remain in the area behind the cold
front that came through the region on Monday. Temperatures look to
climb back towards seasonal averages by Thursday. Although the
flow pattern does look to maintain a northwesterly component
through the short term period...no significant moisture will be
available for precipitation throughout the period. Will leave the
current winter weather highlites in effect for the time
being...however with a weakening wind field behind the front the
likelihood of expanding the wind chill advisory is minimal.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Little, if any, significant weather
expected during this period as high pressure ridging will dominate
the weather pattern over the western states.  Latest forecast models
still move a weak shortwave trof along the northeast flank of the
ridge into central/eastern MT between Fri aftn and Sat morning. The
That will generate some scattered areas of light snow mainly over
the southwest mtns and eastern portions of the Hiline, but the
majority of our region will remain dry.  A second weak trof will
skirt central and northeast MT on late Sat night but no
precipitation is expected.  From Sun onward, we`ll see less cloud
cover and gradually warming temperatures as the ridge axis shifts
from the Pacific coast to the northern Rockies by Tues.  Latest
model data has bumped temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s for
the weekend and low to mid 50s for Mon/Tues with a few upper 50s
possible in the southwest valleys.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  15  -2  28  17 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  15  -4  29  16 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  24   3  33  16 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20   0  30  11 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  22 -13  28   1 /  40   0  10   0
DLN  24   3  35  13 /   0  10   0   0
HVR  14  -6  24  11 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  12  -5  24  13 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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