Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 150415
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
Only minor adjustments to tonight`s forecast. Low temperatures in
the valleys of far southwest Montana, from Wisdom along the Idaho
border to West Yellowstone, have been running about 3 to 5 degrees
cooler than what the models have been giving. Have therefore
lowered them about that much for there again for tonight.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track. Skies will remain clear
across the area, allowing patchy fog to possibly form again late
tonight into early Monday morning in the Missouri River valley
from just north of Helena northeast through Cascade and Chouteau
counties.  Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0415Z.
Broad high pressure ridge remains anchored over the PacNW and
Northern Rockies. VFR conditions continue through Mon night with
mostly clear skies and light and variable surface winds.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2014/
Tonight through Tuesday...The period will start off with northwest
flow aloft. An upper ridge will develop over the Pacific
Northwest Monday then move into western Montana Tuesday. Not only
will there not be any precipitation during the period there will
be little if any cloudiness into Monday night. High clouds will move
through the upper ridge and affect the forecast area Tuesday. Am
not sure how opaque they will be so skies could range anywhere
from sunny to cloudy over the east slopes and southwest Montana.
Have split the difference for now and gone partly cloudy. Over the
eastern plains am confident skies will be sunny or mostly sunny.
Temperatures will undergo a warming trend as the upper ridge
develops and moves to Montana. Blank

Tuesday Night through Sunday...The middle portion of the week
continues to look dry and warm as the upper level ridge slowly
moves through the rest of Montana. The situation changes Wednesday
night into Thursday as an upper level trough sweeps eastward
through the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rocky
Mountains. Temperatures remain above seasonal averages on Thursday
but there will be an increasing chance for showers and possibly a
thunderstorm, especially in Southwest Montana and along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The trough will be over the state on Friday for
cooler temperatures and a continued chance for precipitation.
The trough moves east of the forecast area by Saturday allowing
the ridge to rebuild with high temperatures back above seasonal
averages by Sunday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  74  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  38  72  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  79  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  35  76  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  71  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  39  78  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  37  73  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  39  73  45  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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