Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 272047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday...Forecast calls for one more night and day
of warm, dry and quiet weather before the next weather system
approaches the region. Although conditions will continue to be
breezy along the Rocky Mountain Front, strong winds are not
expected through the next 24 hours. Late Thursday afternoon
conditions will begin to change as an upper level disturbance
approaches the Northern Rockies. A surface cool front will push
south out of Canada with isolated showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm developing ahead of the front along the Hi-Line.
Meanwhile, the upper disturbance will interact with a modestly
unstable airmass over Southwest Montana to trigger a chance for
thunderstorms during the evening with storms spreading northeast
into Central Montana. The remnants of the system will move east
overnight through Friday morning with weak shortwave ridging aloft
developing by afternoon. Friday`s high temperatures will be
slightly cooler than Thursday with partly cloudy skies and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm by late afternoon. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...Cool and unsettled conditions are
expected for this period.  The primary weather maker will be
a longwave trof that gradually moves into the region on Sat and will
persist across the Northern Rockies and the Great Basin areas
through much of next week.  A series of quick-moving shortwaves
embedded within the larger trof pattern will bring scattered showers
and thunderstorms on Saturday, Monday, and Wednesday with isolated,
lingering showers possible on Sunday. An autumn-like cooling trend
begins with passage of a cold front in the early aftn on Sat, and is
then maintained by northwest flow aloft through at least Mon.  After
near-normal temperatures on Sat, high temps each following day will
be about 10-15 degrees below normal, with highs only reaching the
low-mid 60s.  Will also be keeping an eye on possibility of
breezy-to-gusty surface winds along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent
foothills and plains on Mon and Tues as a leeside trof develops over
central MT with high pressure ridging west of the Continental
Divide. Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1725Z.
High pressure ridging over the Northern Rockies will keep conditions
stable and dry, with a mix of clear skies and scattered high clouds
next 24 hours.  Winds to be generally light across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  84  54  80 /   0   0  20  10
CTB  53  79  50  78 /   0  20  20  10
HLN  55  86  55  82 /   0   0  20  10
BZN  47  83  48  79 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  38  72  40  70 /   0  10  30  20
DLN  49  81  49  79 /   0   0  20  20
HVR  55  85  53  78 /   0  10  20  20
LWT  54  83  54  76 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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