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000
FXUS65 KTFX 231750
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1150 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Aviation Section Updated

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast is out. Only change was to increase pops in the
area of light rain currently around Cut Bank, Shelby and down to
Fort Benton. Precipitation amounts are light, generally less than
0.05 inches. The scattered light rain showers will continue in
this region this afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves
through. Otherwise most other areas will see sunny skies and
comfortable temperatures today. Brusda

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will gradually build over the
Northern Rockies over the weekend. As a result, expect a few
isolated showers over the region early this evening and again on
Saturday, while it will be mostly dry on Sunday. Afternoon
temperatures will gradually warm over the next several days, from
the mid 70s on Saturday to around 90 degrees by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1750Z.
A northwesterly flow aloft will reside over the region through the
period. Expect VFR conditions, with some passing clouds, mostly over
North Central MT, with a small chance for a shower/sprinkle.
Precipitation looks too light/short lived to add to any of the
northern TAF sites at this time. Overall winds will be light through
the period. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

Today through Sunday...Relatively quiet weather will prevail
across the forecast area Friday through Sunday. Main driver for
the expected weather is an upper level high pressure ridge along
the West Coast. This will place the state beneath a persistent
northwest flow aloft that will bring variable clouds and a few
light showers and areas of sprinkles to mainly North Central
Montana Friday and Saturday. Models are also showing that the
surface pressure gradient across the region will be weaker than it
has been the last few days, so the unseasonably breezy conditions
we have experienced lately are not expected to rematerialize.
Finally, by Sunday the upper ridge is expected to edge eastward
which should allow temperatures to warm back up to near or
slightly above seasonal averages.

Sunday Night through Thursday...The weekend warming trend peaks on
Monday as the upper level ridge axis passes over the region. Warm
temperatures Monday afternoon will produce adequate instability to
cause scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some of this
activity could persist late Monday evening, aided by a shortwave
trough approaching from the PacNW. A large scale trough
develops over western Canada on Tuesday, then drops into the high
plains through mid-week. Diverging model solutions provide little
useful guidance regarding the passage of shortwave features embedded
within the broadly NW flow aloft. Overall, temperatures trend cooler
Tuesday through Thursday, with slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms associated with the minor shortwave disturbances. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  44  72  46 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  67  43  70  45 /  70  10  20  10
HLN  73  47  76  50 /   0   0  10   0
BZN  71  42  74  44 /   0   0  10   0
WEY  67  35  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  71  42  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  71  44  74  47 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  65  41  68  43 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls