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000
FXUS65 KTFX 010325
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
825 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...

Only minor updates to the forecast for tonight. Scattered clouds
with isolated light snow showers associated with a weak
disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft have already moved
into the area of north central Montana along and north of a Cut
Bank to Lewistown line. Have therefore spread isolated light snow
shower mention across this area this evening and have included
mention for all of north central Montana after midnight. Am not
expecting much from these showers, just mainly flurries.
Temperature and wind forecasts and the remainder of the
precipitation forecast appear to be on track.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Northwest to northerly flow aloft will continue. A weak disturbance
aloft will move across eastern Montana overnight and may generate
some light precipitation along and east of a KHVR-KLWT line after
06z. VFR conditions prevail with areas of MVFR possible in the
vicinity of light snow showers, mainly between 06z-12z for portions
of eastern Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Tonight through Monday...Northerly flow aloft over a cold surface
high pressure system will keep variable clouds along with patchy
light snow in place overnight. Sunday will be a transition day
between weather systems with mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. As the surface high
pressure system moves off to the southeast and pressure falls carve
out a trough through Alberta, winds will veer to the south and
become gusty during the afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer
overnight, become westerly ahead of the next storm system with
downslope conditions expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
over the adjacent plains. At this time it does not appear that any
highlights will be needed for strong winds as mid-level winds and
surface pressure gradients do not appear to be overly strong. Monday
will see an abrupt change back to cold temperatures and widespread
snow for the northern half of my forecast area as a Canadian cold
front sweeps southward through the state. Central and north central
Montana should expect to see high temperatures in the morning with
temperatures falling through the day. Much of this area should
expect to see one to three inches of accumulation on Monday along
with areas of blowing snow. Southwest Montana will remain ahead of
the front so temperatures will be warmer, possibly reaching into the
mid to upper 30s, and there will only be a chance for a few snow
showers. At this time I will not be issuing any winter weather
highlights for this system but would expect advisory criteria
conditions to prevail in the north on Monday. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. As a result...mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the extended...with temperatures near seasonal
normals starting on Thursday. Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   5  29  14  29 /  20   0   0 100
CTB   4  29  13  24 /  20  10   0 100
HLN   7  31  13  34 /  10  10   0  70
BZN   3  27   8  35 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  -8  29   2  32 /  20   0   0  20
DLN   4  29   9  37 /  10   0   0  20
HVR   5  28  10  29 /  20   0   0  80
LWT   3  26   9  31 /  20  10   0 100

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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