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000
FXUS65 KTFX 252038
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
238 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge will
bring quiet weather to the forecast area throughout this period.
The ridge axis will gradually shift east from the Pacific Coast to
over the Rockies by Tuesday. This will continue the dry and
mostly clear conditions with significant warming. Near normal
temperatures today will warm to 10 degrees above normal for Monday
and around 15 degrees above normal for Tuesday. As a result, highs
mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s will warm into the mid 70s to
lower 80s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will mostly fall into the
40s, but 30s are possible in the higher mountain valleys. Breezy
westerly winds will continue through the period with the gustiest
winds during the afternoon, especially along the Rocky Mountain
Front, where gusts could exceed 35 mph at times. Despite the
winds, patchy fog may develop tonight in some of the more
protected river valleys, though dense fog is unlikely. Warming
temperatures after tonight will likely hinder any further fog
development for the near future.
Coulston

Tuesday night through Sunday...Medium range models are in decent
agreement for Tuesday night through Friday but solutions diverge
for next weekend. The forecast period starts off with remnants of
a flattened shortwave ridge edging eastward from Montana into the
Dakotas. Meanwhile, an upper level low develops off the British
Columbia coast which gradually elongates into a trough along the
Pacific Northwest coast with flow aloft over Montana backing to
the south-southwest and becoming increasingly moist. Tuesday
night through Thursday will remain dry for most locations with
seasonable temperatures expected each day. Isolated mountain
showers develop near Glacier Park Wednesday then expand across
all the western mountains on Thursday with a few showers or
thunderstorms possibly moving out over the plains Thursday
evening. Showers and possible thunderstorms increase in coverage
across the entire forecast area Friday through Sunday with a
surface cold front expected to move through the region for cooler
temperatures for next weekend.
mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1715Z.

Mostly clear skies are expected across central and southwest MT
today, with occasional patches of scattered mid-level clouds
moving north to south across the region. Surface winds generally
light, but area from KGTF to KCTB will see breezy conditions,
with gusts of 15- 20 kts through early evening.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  42  76  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  42  78  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  41  77  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  29  70  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  39  75  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  42  75  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  42  74  50  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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