Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 242327
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
527 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME POCKETS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL SUNDOWN. SHEAR NUMBERS
VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT SO NO STRONG STORMS EXPECTED. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. TUESDAY FINDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVING
TO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2325Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING
THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  70  48  69 /  20  10  30  60
CTB  39  71  44  68 /  20  10  30  60
HLN  45  72  49  71 /  20  20  40  60
BZN  39  67  44  67 /  50  20  30  60
WEY  33  61  37  59 /  30  40  50  60
DLN  40  67  44  65 /  30  30  50  60
HVR  43  74  46  75 /  20  10  20  30
LWT  43  65  46  67 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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