Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 011154
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...An upper trough over the forecast area this
morning will move out of the forecast area by early afternoon as
an upper ridge moves into northwest Montana. This ridge will then
quickly move into eastern Montana by midnight. Another upper
trough will move southeast through Montana late tonight through
Thursday. The associated cold front is expected to be near the
Canadian border at midnight. It will then sweep south through the
area reaching a Helena-White Sulphur Springs line around 6 am and
the Idaho border by late Thursday afternoon. Models forecast
decent lift with the trough and will also see low level lift near
and behind the cold front. The combination of the lift and a moist
airmass will lead to widespread precipitation beginning in the
northwest zones later tonight then spreading to central Montana
early Thursday morning. As for the type of precipitation for a few
towns..expect that Cut Bank will see snow..Havre rain..and Great
Falls and Lewistown a mix of rain and snow. If Helena and Bozeman
see precipitation it should be in the form of rain. Still expect
several inches of snow for western portions of Glacier County
including Glacier National Park so have issued a winter weather
advisory for that area for late tonight and Thursday morning.
Precipitation will diminish Thursday afternoon over the forecast
area as the trough moves into the western Dakotas by late afternoon.
Expect dry weather Thursday night through Friday due to the
approach of an upper ridge from the west. Highs only in the 40s
for the lower elevations Thursday should rebound to the upper 50s
and lower 60s by Friday. Blank

Friday night through Wednesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will be over the region from Friday night into Monday.
As a result...mostly dry and mild conditions can be expected over
the region. There is a very small chance for an isolated shower
over the Rocky Mountain Front and north of Highway 2...but
confidence is quite low in the precip happening. It will be a bit
windy over the region Friday night into Saturday...and there is a
small potential for high wind highlights over the Rocky Mountain
Front. For Tuesday through Wednesday...the upper level ridge
begins to break down...and precipitation chances increase just a
bit over the northern portions of the region. Again...confidence
is low in determining when/where the light precipitation will
fall. Temperatures will be above normal on Tuesday...then fall a
few degrees for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
Scattered light rain showers continue to push southward through the
region. Ceilings will be near IFR conditions this morning...with
mountains obscured at times. Expect clearing skies this afternoon
through this evening...then a stronger Canadian cold front will move
south of the Canadian border after 9z Thursday. Looking
ahead...expect snow/IFR conditions to accompany the front. The cold
front will work its way southward Thursday morning. LIFR conditions
could develop over much of North Central MT for a few hours right
after frontal passage...along with gusty northerly surface winds to
30kts. The worst conditions are expected form 11z Thu to 19z Thu.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  34  44  29 /  30  50  80   0
CTB  58  30  44  29 /  10  80  50   0
HLN  59  39  49  31 /  40   0  40   0
BZN  54  32  50  27 /  40   0  20   0
WEY  46  22  48  19 /  30  10  10   0
DLN  55  32  53  28 /  20   0  10   0
HVR  63  37  46  25 /  10  50  30   0
LWT  56  35  44  28 /  30  20  80   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon MDT
Thursday Eastern Glacier...Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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