Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 010358
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
858 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015

.UPDATE...

Upper level shortwave trough that brought snow to much of north-
central MT continues to move away from the region tonight with
just a few lingering flurries possible over central MT through
midnight. Cold surface high pressure currently centered over the
Canadian Prairies will shift southeast into the Dakotas later
tonight through Sunday and the airmass will continue to dry for
decreasing cloudiness tonight. Skies have already cleared
sufficiently north and west of Great Falls to allow temperatures
to fall to near previously forecast lows and have lowered minimum
temps some for tonight in those areas. Some degree of low level
cloud-cover will likely continue through tonight across central
portions of the forecast area including Great Falls and Lewistown,
which will play a large role in how far temperatures drop in those
areas later tonight. Fog potential exists across much of north-
central MT as well later tonight through Sunday morning as low
levels remain relatively moist and winds light. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Conditions currently running the gamut from SKC over southwest MT to
IFR and intermittent LIFR with -SN/BR over parts of central MT,
especially vcnty KGTF.  Main portion of the upper-level trof
bringing the snow and low clouds is now over eastern MT, so should
see conditions gradually improving back to VFR for KCTB/KHVR/KGTF/
KLWT this eve, but exact timing is a bit tricky due to local effects
near those airfields and a few amendments are likely.  Clearing
skies overnight will bring in a chance for fog and IFR ceilings by
early Sun morning, so have kept those elements in current TAFS for
all local sites except KLWT.  VFR conditions expected for Sun after
fog dissipates.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015/
Tonight through Sunday night...Lingering snow should end late this
afternoon and evening. Although remaining snow will be light..will
leave current winter weather advisory in place. The forecast for
tonight is tough with regards to forecast lows and cloud cover. Am
counting on clouds dissipating later tonight so have tended to go
a little colder than the previous forecast. In line with this will
mention patchy fog over portions of the forecast area as winds
should be light. But again there is a possibility that skies will
remain cloudy in which case it will not get as cold and there will
be less of a threat of fog. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will
increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with
a chance of snow for the lower elevations. The next surge of cold
air will spread into the far north near or after midnight. Also a
weather disturbance aloft will move into north central Montana
late. For these reasons have increased the chances of snow over
north central Montana late Sunday night. Blank

For Monday...Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible.
Snowfall amounts will generally be on the light side. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another batch of cold Canadian air southward with snow
developing behind the front. This system will continue to move
southward through the state with precipitation moving into southwest
Montana Tuesday night. For the remainder of the period, models
continue to be somewhat in agreement attempting to build an upper
level ridge over the region. However, Saturday nights model runs
suggest that multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft will suppress
ridge development and bring a few periods of showers to the state.
Temperatures will likely warm back toward seasonal averages by
Thursday with highs expected to climb above average Friday and
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the plains
and there appears to be a good chance that high winds will affect
the Rocky Mountain Front at times from Thursday night through
Saturday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   0  35  27  39 /  20  10  30  20
CTB  -5  30  20  30 /  10  10  30  30
HLN   6  33  27  46 /  10  20  20  30
BZN   6  32  24  44 /  10  10  30  20
WEY   6  27  20  32 /  10  20  40  50
DLN  14  38  27  45 /   0  20  30  30
HVR   1  25  18  26 /  20   0  40  40
LWT   4  31  23  35 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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