Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 011732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure is slowly building over Central Montana and
the airmass will continue to dry. Will drop the showers from the
extreme the Northern Rockies and extreme northeast zones since the
convective temp is quite high. Zelzer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/ Today
through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the Hi-Line
early this morning is responsible for isolated shower activity.
This activity should be east of the county warning area by 8 am.
The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the flow aloft
continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability this
afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front,
including Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for
precipitation from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the
possibility of 2 inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in
Glacier Park. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal
averages to start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below
seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Generally benign weather conditions expected over the next 24
hours across north-central and southwest Montana. May see a shower
or two over the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Will see mid-
level clouds build up a bit across the forecast area this
afternoon with gusty winds to around 30 kts continuing at KCTB.
Winds will be generally lighter elsewhere. Winds will quickly
diminish and become light and variable at most terminals by around
01-02z with few-scattered mid-level clouds continuing. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  10   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  10   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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