Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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447
FXUS65 KTFX 082124
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... LITTLE EXCITING WEATHER
TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EXCEPT FOR FOLKS WHO ENJOY 60-
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN EARLY FEB.  BROAD, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO/WY/MT TO WELL WEST OF THE PACIFIC
COAST. WITH ONE NEARLY-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AND ANOTHER IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THAT
WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON
TUES-WED. THE PASSING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WE HAVE TODAY, FROM
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
FRONTSIDE OF THE RIDGE, WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS INTO WA/OR, PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN MT AND THE
DAKOTAS. THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO CHECK THE WARMING
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (NOTABLY AT THE 700 MB/10,000 FT
LEVEL) THAT WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE
CENTRAL AND HILINE COUNTIES TOMORROW AND WED, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME NEW RECORDS FOR HIGH TEMPS. THOUGH SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, THE VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE MIXING DUE TO THE RIDGE`S
STABLE CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EACH DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVER MONTANA.  PATCHES OF MOISTURE SPILLING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SCT/BKN MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS (GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS) WILL OCCUR VCNTY KCTB/KGTF
THROUGH 00Z THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  32  57  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  47  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  42  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  14  37  12  35 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  26  45  25  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  28  51  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  30  52  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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