Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 242308
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
308 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

UPDATED AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...Ridge of high pressure has exited the CWA
as evident by increasing clouds and winds. Increasing
southwesterly winds are bringing some breezy areas and mountain
wave clouds this afternoon. As moisture increases with the
southwest flow associated with a weak river event...rain showers
and snow showers above 6000 feet...possibly lowering to 5000 feet
late tonight...are expected through the overnight hours across
western and southern portions. These showers could also spread
across central portions early Saturday morning with a weak
shortwave embedded in the flow. Chances for rain showers and snow
showers above 5000 feet then linger through Saturday across
western and southern portions...while some scattered showers may
return across central portions Saturday afternoon. Precip could
then linger across the west and south through Saturday
evening...then a ridge of high pressure will bring drying
conditions overnight Saturday night into Sunday. A dry and
slightly breezy day is expected for Sunday. So overall some active
but low impact weather is expected across the west and south
through Saturday...with scattered showers central...and little
precip north. This time of year it seems difficult to accumulate
snow other than at night. Snow accumulations from pass levels and
higher could reach the 2 to 6 inch range in southwest
MT...however...impacts are expected to be low as the March sun
will keep roads warm. Slightly cooler but still above normal temps
in the low to mid 50s are generally expected for Saturday...with
some 40s southwest. Warming temps in the mid to upper 50s are
expected Sunday. Rivers will continue to be monitored...however no
warnings are in effect currently. Fire danger has probably peaked
today...although may increase again slightly on Sunday. Anglin

Sunday Night through Friday...The region comes under
influence of an upper level trough late Sunday into Monday, with the
potential for splitting upper level energy resulting in a snow/rain
mix across much of the area, but especially across SW MT, where the
highest precipitation chances look to be Monday into Monday night
before the system departs to the east. Conditions improve later
Tuesday through Wednesday aside from scattered, mainly mountain
showers. Uncertainty increases with the following system for late-
week. This system looks to push a cold front south and east through
the region, with a round of upslope flow and moisture that would
allow for some accumulating snow across parts of the High Plains as
well as parts of SW MT. The GFS and Canadian models indicate a quick
burst of snow in a short amount of time (6 hours or less), while the
European model indicates up to a 24-hour period of snow from
Thursday into Friday for some parts of our area. This system will
bear watching through the middle of next week. Cassell

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 2308Z.

Southwesterly to westerly flow aloft will persist during the TAF
period. One weather disturbance should cross the area between 06Z
and 18Z/Sat, while another should near the Continental Divide from
the west by 00Z/Sun. VFR and breezy surface winds are expected at
the North-Central MT terminals during the period. Farther south, a
period of MVFR to IFR CIGS and perhaps MVFR VSBY in showers of rain
and/or snow is possible at KBZN, KEKS and KHLN, especially between
about 06Z and 15Z/Sat. In addition, periods of mountain
obscuration should be expected during the period.
Jaszka

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  38  55  32  57 /  20  20  10   0
CTB  35  49  29  51 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  37  53  32  56 /  40  30  40  10
BZN  36  51  30  54 /  50  60  30  10
WEY  29  38  20  40 /  60  70  40  10
DLN  35  49  28  52 /  30  30  20   0
HVR  38  57  31  56 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  37  51  31  52 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.