Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 081620
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE... NOT MUCH HAPPENING WEATHER-WISE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE; JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER TO BETTER MATCH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS BROAD
AREA OF HIGH CLOUD SPILLING OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE PATTERN
INTO MONTANA.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD VALUES AT MANY LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER SW MT
WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AREAS. HOENISCH

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT MAINLY A SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  34  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  31  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  45  27  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  40  20  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33   7  35  12 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  25  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  27  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  46  30  51  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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