Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 231608
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1008 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION
COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. UPDATED TO
FRESHEN POPS, QPF, AND WX. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z. SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 00Z. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 00Z DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016/

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MTN STATES TONIGHT. MOIST/DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION TO EASTERLY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES INTO WY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SW MT BY MID-DAY,
SPREADING NORTH INTO CENTRAL MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SW MT TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE REGION AROUND
THE CIRCULATION TO OUR SOUTH. ON SUNDAY THE MAIN CIRCULATION
CENTER TRACKS EAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA FOR DECREASING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK N/NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM, CURRENTLY NEAR 140W, MOVES ONSHORE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AGAIN. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, FALLING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
ABOVE MOST AREA PASSES. HOENISCH

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM
RANGE FORECAST WITH THE PERIOD CONTINUING TO LOOK UNSETTLED. AN
UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRACKS TO
EASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. THE TROF SPLITS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
MOVING EAST TO THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE WEAKER ENERGY REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR
RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEAK AND
SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED. BY FRIDAY, ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A LOBE FURTHER NORTH RESULTING IN A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT. AT THIS POINT, THE GFS LOOKS A BIT MORE
REALISTIC AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION OF MAINLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WPC
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF CENTRAL MONTANA
RECEIVING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  38  51  36 /  40  80  60  50
CTB  52  36  52  34 /  40  40  60  40
HLN  60  40  56  37 /  40  90  60  40
BZN  62  37  52  35 /  90 100  70  40
WEY  51  33  47  30 /  80  90  60  60
DLN  59  38  54  36 /  80  90  50  40
HVR  63  38  47  34 /  30  30  60  60
LWT  61  38  43  34 /  50  80  70  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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