Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 221749
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
937 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2015

.UPDATE...

A strong pressure gradient along the east slopes of the Rockies
continues to produce strong winds along and adjacent to the Rocky
mountain Front. Gusts in excess of 60 mph have now been reported
along areas adjacent to the southern Rocky Mtn Front with
sustained winds in excess of 40 mph also observed at Cut Bank as
of 9AM. The pressure gradient weakens slightly this afternoon
through tomorrow morning and strong winds in these areas will
likely subside some, but latest model data continues to support
re-intensification of winds in these areas as early as Friday
afternoon and continuing through Saturday. Have therefore went
ahead and upgraded the High wind watch to a warning to cover
current period of strong winds and expected re-development late
tomorrow through Saturday. Otherwise, current forecast is on track
with additional warming expected today along with generally dry
conditions through this afternoon. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1215Z.
Increasing mid and high clouds will continue as northwest flow aloft
brings moisture to the area. Surface winds will be gusty through the
afternoon with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front.
Winds will decrease after 00z but increase and strengthen again
after 12z. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2015/

Today through Saturday...An upper ridge centered over the Rockies
today will provide dry conditions. A lee side surface trof has
tightened the gradient along the Rocky Mountain Front and winds
have increased and become gusty. The strongest winds will occur
along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and a high wind warning
has been hoisted for that area through the morning. It will also
be breezy over the plains. Weak shortwave energy will cross the
area tonight embedded within the northwest flow aloft. This
feature may bring light snow showers to the Rockies and clouds to
the plains. The pattern changes little on Friday. Additional
shortwave energy will bring isolated snow showers to the Rockies
as well as the mountains of southwest Montana while the plains
remain dry. Stronger shortwave energy will move rapidly across the
area on Saturday. Snow levels will be high enough Saturday to keep
the precipitation as scattered rain showers at the lower
elevations with snow in the mountains. Because this feature moves
through so quickly, precipitation accumulations will not be
significant. Surface pressure gradients remain tight along the
Rocky Mountain Front Saturday and a high wind watch has been
issued through Saturday evening. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages through the period.

Saturday Night through Thursday...A trough moves across Central
Montana and the Continental Divide during Saturday. Precipitation
chances climb across Central Montana but the system moves through
fairly quickly suggesting most places will not see much in quantity.
Precipitation looks to be rain at lower elevations and snow in the
mountains. Summer-like high pressure over the west coast builds
north late Sunday helping push most moisture out of the region for
Monday and Tuesday. The pattern holds into Wednesday as moisture
from a low pressure system in Mexico moves north through the Western
U.S. and into Southwest Montana Wednesday afternoon. Most moisture
from this system exits the region Thursday. West southwest winds
across much of the region look to remain in the 10 to 20 MPH range
throughout the period. High temperatures remain well above seasonal
averages with some locations in the low 50s this coming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  30  43  37 /   0  10   0  20
CTB  42  26  42  35 /   0  10   0  10
HLN  36  22  40  27 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  34  19  39  22 /   0  10  10  20
WEY  27   6  32  10 /   0  10  10  30
DLN  38  21  44  26 /   0  10   0  10
HVR  40  25  42  33 /   0  10   0  10
LWT  44  25  44  31 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 5 AM MST Sunday Eastern Glacier...
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.