Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 140005
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
Radar was indicating some weak activity over central Montana as of
5 pm in part due to a weather disturbance aloft which was moving
through the area. Low level moisture is lacking but can not rule
out a few sprinkles and gusty winds. The disturbance should move
out of the area by early evening with activity quickly diminishing.
Because the activity is weak and should be ending soon do not plan
on issuing an update to the forecast but a tweet has been sent
concerning the situation. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions in mostly clear skies will prevail over the region
through Monday. Expect westerly winds to diminish through the night
before strengthening again after 15Z Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 PM MDT Sun Apr 13 2014/
FXUS65 KTFX 132047
AFDTFX

Tonight through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high pressure
will build into the area for Monday with seasonal temperatures
returning to the area. Another storm system and cold front will
move into the area on Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds will develop
along and behind a Pacific cold front as it crosses the area
during the morning and early afternoon hours on Tuesday.
Precipitation will develop over the mountains and eventually spread
into the plains and valleys as a Canadian cold front pushes south
into the area. Models solutions differ on the timing and placement
of the Canadian cold front, with the NAM holding the front up
across the northern zones until Wednesday morning. Will side on
the faster solutions with the front reaching central Montana by
late Tuesday afternoon. The heaviest precipitation looks like it
will develop over the Rocky Mountain Front on Tuesday where
orographic lift will combine with a strengthening mid level front
to provide lift. Langlieb

Tuesday night through Sunday...A rather unsettled weather pattern is
setting up for the middle portion of the work week...as another
upper level trof of low pressure moves through the region.
Precipitation should be becoming more widespread by Tuesday night
over the western half of North Central MT and the northern half of
Southwest MT. Thus pops have been raised in this region. The precip
is expected to continue into Wednesday. This system will be very
similar to the system that moved through the region yesterday. Thus
expect a mix of rain/snow at lower elevations and mostly snow in the
mountains. Snow accumulations of around an inch or two can be
expected at lower elevations...with the Helena Valley likely seeing
very little snow accumulation though...and most mountain ranges
seeing 2 to 5 inches of snow. Afternoon temperatures on Wednesday
will be well below normal once again...especially over North Central
MT. For Thursday and Friday...the chances for precip look to be
lower then previously thought...as weak upper level ridging builds
over the region. Temperatures will start to rebound towards seasonal
normals by Friday. For next weekend...leaned more towards climo
pops/temps for the region...as both the EC/GFS have quite a bit of
difference in their forecast solutions for next weekend. Thus with
the uncertainty among those 2 models...I have leaned the forecast
more towards climo.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  58  36  52 /   0   0   0  40
CTB  24  58  35  49 /   0   0   0  50
HLN  25  60  36  54 /   0   0  10  40
BZN  20  57  29  55 /   0   0   0  50
WEY   4  46  21  47 /   0   0   0  40
DLN  21  57  32  54 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  22  59  32  57 /   0   0   0  30
LWT  19  54  31  53 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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