Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 200945
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
345 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Large scale pattern keeps the upper level
trough along the Washington/Oregon coast today through Thursday.
Southwest flow aloft continues over the forecast area during this
time with another round of isolated thunderstorms expected to
develop over the Little Belt and Big Belt Mountains (and possibly
as far south as the Bridgers) during the afternoon and moving
east-northeast into an unstable airmass over Judith Basin and
Fergus Counties during the late afternoon through the overnight
hours. SPC continues to keep central and southwest Montana in the
"General" thunderstorm risk area today through Friday but would
not be surprised to see one or two storms become strong to severe
by early evening. It is also worth noting that SPC indicates
thunderstorms on Thursday while current models are not showing any
precipitation at this time. Pattern undergoes a change Thursday
night and Friday as the West Coast trough is finally progged to
move inland, reaching north central Montana by Friday afternoon.
Models are bringing a good chance to low likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms to northern portions of the forecast area with
afternoon high temperatures expected to cool off by 5 to 10
degrees for much of the forecast area. mpj

Friday night through Wednesday...An upper level trof will be exiting
the region Friday night with mostly dry conditions and near normal
temperatures expected over the weekend. For early next week...an
upper level ridge will shift into the Southwestern portions of the
U.S. At this time...the upper level ridge is not expected to be over
strong or greatly amplified northward into Montana. Thus only
slightly above normal temperatures are expected over the region for
the first half of next week. As of now...the chances for
thunderstorms next week are quite low...because timing/strength of
any upper level disturbance moving through the flow aloft is quite
uncertain. Thus some minor adjustments to pops are likely next week
across the region...but overall the daily chances of any
thunderstorms still looks to be quite limited...generally less
than 20 percent. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
Most of the thunderstorms have exited the region at 0545z. A few
isolated storms will affect the Cut Bank area through 09z otherwise
VFR conditions should prevail overnight. Expect a few isolated
storms to develop mainly over far SW MT on Wednesday
afternoon...mainly after 22z. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  54  90  57 /   0  10   0  10
CTB  83  48  86  52 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  92  60  93  61 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  92  50  93  54 /  10  10  10  10
WEY  79  41  82  48 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  87  50  90  54 /  10   0  10  10
HVR  90  54  90  58 /   0  10   0  30
LWT  87  56  88  60 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


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