Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 020927
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
327 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY OVER
SOUTHWEST MT WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT AFTER A WEAK COOL FRONT
DISSOLVED INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT COULD
YIELD PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONCE
AGAIN DROP INTO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST ZONES, BUT LIGHT WINDS MITIGATE THE NEED FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT. A MINOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRAW MONSOON MOISTURE THROUGH SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MAINTAINS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING AVAILABILITY
OF MOISTURE. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO
RAISE POPS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. PN

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP GIVEN LOWER MODEL CONFIDENCE AMID THE
DISTURBED AND MOIST FLOW. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0520Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR ALL BUT KHVR WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
DIRECTED TOWARD A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHALLOW CUMULUS
ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE TOP
OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  57  93  63 /   0   0  10  20
CTB  90  54  93  60 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  97  56  96  61 /   0   0  20  20
BZN  93  53  90  56 /   0   0  20  30
WEY  87  43  79  44 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  92  53  86  55 /   0   0  20  30
HVR  89  57  91  59 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  88  56  90  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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