Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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812
FXUS65 KTFX 261536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO GRIDS FOR TODAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS MORNING, SO HAVE RAISED POPS MOSTLY TO CATEGORICAL, THOUGH
ACTUAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY LOW. WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITY REDUCTION ALSO CONTINUES, SO HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION IN
UNTIL NOON. A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, AS THE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD LOW
AND MID CLOUDS AS WELL AS AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS, PRECIPITATION, AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER 00Z. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016/

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN UT
EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST ACROSS WY AND CO TODAY WHILE A
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO ITS
NORTH, EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM ND INTO SE ALBERTA. A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
AND FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE
DEFORMATION ZONE/WEAK VORTICITY LOBE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL MT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF
COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS BUT ONLY VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND WHILE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
AGAIN TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THIS MAY PROVIDE
ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
EAST TO THE NORTH OF CIRCULATION, WHICH WILL BRING AN ENHANCED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS
OF DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE
ALOFT AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS
THE AREA STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO
START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  48  33 /  80  20  30  30
CTB  48  30  50  31 /  60  10  30  40
HLN  53  35  54  36 /  30  20  20  20
BZN  51  33  54  33 /  40  30  30  20
WEY  45  28  47  27 /  50  30  30  20
DLN  53  32  55  33 /  40  30  20  10
HVR  45  31  49  34 /  80  30  20  50
LWT  42  32  45  32 /  80  40  40  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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