Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 291126
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
525 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...A line of moisture propagating with a
weak shortwave and nw flow...from north central MT northward along
the AB and SK border...is currently providing a few scattered
showers with embedded thunderstorms across north central MT.
Expect these showers to linger through much of the morning hours
as they move eastward out of the CWA. Weak ridging will bring
another slightly warmer than average day across the region.
Limited moisture trapped under the weak ridge could be the focus
for more afternoon and evening thunderstorms today...however
coverage will be isolated...and mainly confined to the
mountains...eastern...and northern portions of the CWA.
Thunderstorms will then diminish shortly after sunset tonight.
Ridge moves east for Saturday and a trough extending across the
Pacific NW brings sw flow to the region. Question still remains on
the amount of monsoonal moisture that can get into MT. Models now
indicating perhaps far southern and portions of central MT may tap
into some of this moisture. However...the moisture in the central
portions peaks with a modestly unstable...and slightly capped
atmosphere...and sees this moisture push north and eastward
throughout the day. Although an isolated thunderstorm may be
possible for the central...the better chances for isolated storms
will more be in the far southern and far northern parts of the CWA
for Saturday...where slightly better shear and upper level
moisture will be found. A cool front then looks to push across the
region Saturday night through Sunday. Left in at least slight
chances for isolated thunderstorms with this front...mainly in
southern and northern portions of the CWA. This front is now
trending to be more of a dry front...with ample dry air streaming
in behind it. Gusty post frontal winds...combined with RHs dipping
into the teens and 20s...may bring some elevated fire danger on
Sunday...and is worth watching how this front plays out.
Temperatures this weekend will only help dry area fire fuels
out...as highs on Saturday look to climb into the 90s...with upper
80s to low 90s on Sunday. Anglin

Sunday Night Through Friday...Period begins with a closed upper
level low tracking east across central AB/SK Sunday night.
Associated upper level jet energy tracks east along the US/Canadian
border with some lingering showers possible near the border while
drier air moves in from the west across central/SW MT. Upper level
ridging builds in the wake of this system Monday before another
upper level low moves onshore Tuesday, taking a slightly further
south track eastward just north of the border Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Surface cold front looks to shift east across the region
Tuesday for a somewhat better chance of showers/thunderstorms,
through moisture is limited and better upper level dynamics again
stay along or just north of US/Canadian border. Upper level ridging
rebuilds again behind this system on Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will remain warm and slightly above seasonal averages
Monday and Tuesday with slight cooling occurring Wednesday before
temperatures climb back above normal again late next week. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...Updated 1125Z.

A few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will exist
through this morning in the vicinity of the KHVR terminal as a weak
weather disturbance moves east along the US/Canadian border. Mainly
clear skies to the S and W this morning giving way to some cumulus
development this afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm possible
over the mtns. KCTB terminal is the most likely of any area
terminals to see one of these storms move off the Mtns into the
vicinity late this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail
otherwise with generally light surface winds. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  86  57  93  56 /  10  10   0  10
CTB  83  55  88  53 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  89  60  95  60 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  87  52  93  53 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  80  43  81  48 /  10  10  30  20
DLN  86  53  90  54 /   0   0  10  20
HVR  84  59  92  59 /  40  20  20  10
LWT  81  58  89  58 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.