Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 031732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1032 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE THIS MORNING. STRONG UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ITS POSITION OVER
THE AREA PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1732Z.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WATER VAPOR INDICATES MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST.
THE RIDGE FINALLY SLIDES EAST OF THE ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIFT INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE TROF INCREASES AS WELL WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CAPE IS WEAK, HOWEVER, AND CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIMITED. INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON LIFT WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STABLE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A BIT THURSDAY BUT REMAIN
ABOVE NORMALS. ZELZER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE A BIT
MORE UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...WHEN COMPARED TO THE QUIET/WARM
CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE WEEK. SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT/GLACIER PARK AND THE CUT BANK AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THIS REGION. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED IN THIS AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO 1
INCH OF RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED/LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN...WITH
HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A BUTTE TO BOZEMAN LINE. THE GFS/EC
PROG A BIT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER...IN
THE MONIDA/WEST YELLOWSTONE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH UP TO 0.50
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...THE
GFS/EC DIFFER A BIT...AS THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FALL OVER THE REGION. THUS...I KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS FROM SUN THRU TUE...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MILD ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN TURNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  45  83  47 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  78  42  80  44 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  80  45  82  48 /   0   0  10   0
BZN  77  40  79  43 /   0   0  10   0
WEY  69  36  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  75  40  76  45 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  81  46  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  77  46  82  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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