Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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403
FXUS65 KTFX 051740
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NECESSARY THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. INCOMING 12Z MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT, SEE NO REASON NOT TO
UPDATE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 324 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WITH SHORTWAVE IN ITS BASE NEAR 140W THIS MORNING WILL
RAPIDLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT AND ACROSS MT
SATURDAY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND MT
ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO AREAS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN
FRONT AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING, SPREADING EAST INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY LATER TONIGHT WHERE THE HIGH WIND
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. SURFACE TROUGH AND
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE VIGOROUSLY TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS MT WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW LIKELY IN THE MTNS BUT ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER EAST. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE MORNING PERIOD SATURDAY WITH
SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE RISES FOLLOWING, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT. MODELS
ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT TO SPREAD 60-70KT WINDS AT 700MB LEVEL
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY N OF I90) BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON MIXING UNDER
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER THE MTNS INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY. HOENISCH

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 50S OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MT FROM MON THRU THU (WITH A FEW AREAS NEAR 60 DEGREES
ON TUE)...WITH 40S COMMON IN SOUTHWEST MT. ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE FOR A PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...THE GFS/EC
BOTH HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION...BUT
THE TIMING/STRENGTH IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT...THUS I LEANED MORE
TOWARDS CLIMO POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL)
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT FRIDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS FROM TIME TO TIME. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF HAS ALLOWED
WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AFTER 00Z AND SPREAD
EAST OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  35  44  26 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  46  35  42  25 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  41  27  39  22 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  34  20  37  14 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  24  18  27   8 /  20  40  50  30
DLN  34  23  35  15 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  46  33  47  26 /   0   0  20  10
LWT  41  30  39  21 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
MTZ011>015-044>047-049>055.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR MTZ009-010-048.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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