Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 280937
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF A NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT MOISTURE
INTO MT TODAY. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVERALL TODAY, BUT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY,
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 3000-4000FT THIS MORNING WITH WET SNOW
OR A RAIN SNOW MIX BRINGING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000FT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
BEGINNING OF A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH MUCH OF
THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THIS REGIME
WITH FOCUS MORE OVER THE MTNS OF WESTERN AND SW MT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN END TO THE COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN
OF THE PAST WEEK. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF WEAKENS TO START THE
PERIOD AS THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE DRIFTS FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER TROF
SPLITS ON SUNDAY WITH THE WESTERN PORTION RESIDING OVER NEVADA/UTAH
AND THE EASTERN PORTION FILLING AS IT PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE WESTERN LOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY USHERING IN WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.

AN EAST TO WEST ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS.
OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT TERMINALS WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER AND ALSO POTENTIALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
AT TIMES. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  30  53  34 /  80  20  20  20
CTB  44  31  52  33 /  70  30  20  20
HLN  49  33  57  36 /  50  20  30  30
BZN  47  31  55  34 /  30  20  20  20
WEY  44  27  47  29 /  30  20  50  40
DLN  49  30  55  34 /  20  20  40  40
HVR  52  34  55  36 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  41  31  49  34 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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