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000
FXUS65 KTFX 170311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT Thu May 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made adjustments to the pop and weather
grids. Moist and unstable flow aloft continues ahead of an upper
trof approaching from the west. Latest RUC analysis keeps overnight
precipitation mainly over the southwest so have lowered pops across
central and northern portions of the county warning area into Friday
morning. Remainder of forecast looks on track. Emanuel

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Moist and unstable flow will continue as an upper level trough moves
slowly over the region from the west. Occasional disturbances will
bring scattered to numerous showers to the southern half of Central
Montana through 00z Friday. In the north VFR conditions should
prevail tonight with areas of MVFR in and around showers before 12z.
Most of Central Montana will see more widespread stratiform rain and
mountain snow develop after 12z. Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and
mountain obscuration is expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 257 PM MDT Thu May 16 2013

Thursday through Saturday...Moist flow aloft and multiple weak
upper level disturbances will move across the area ahead of a low
pressure trough that will move across the area throughout the
weekend. Showers and afternoon thunderstorms will increase in
coverage through the weekend. No severe thunderstorms are expected
at this time however isolated strong gusty winds and hail will be
possible. The area with the largest chance of widespread
precipitation will continue to be Southwest Montana where low
level moisture will be the most abundant throughout the period.
Less chance of wide spread precipitation to the north as the Moist
flow at mid level dramatically decreases north of the Little Belt
Mountains. Suk

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH...ALREADY IN PLACE...MOVES EASTWARD. ON TUESDAY WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE BUILDING A
LITTLE STRONGER NORTH INTO MONTANA...BUT THE RIDGING IS SHORT LIVED.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE AREA HAS DIFFLUENT FLOW WHILE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE CWA WILL START TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE
LOW IN THE PAC NW. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY. MOST OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS. THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM WILL
BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MERCER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  45  61  44 /  50  50  70  50
CTB  64  42  63  41 /  50  40  50  40
HLN  65  46  63  45 /  50  60  80  60
BZN  66  42  62  41 /  50  70  80  70
WEY  61  43  56  39 /  60  60  70  60
DLN  63  43  59  41 /  70  70  80  80
HVR  71  47  68  46 /  50  60  60  50
LWT  64  46  59  43 /  50  80  70  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls