Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 241000
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
400 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring strong winds across much of north
central Montana today. Damaging winds of 50 mph or more are possible
for these mentioned areas today...through tonight...and possibly
into Thursday morning. Mild temperatures will be found this
morning...with a cold front cooling temperatures to below normal
readings for later today through Thursday. A few scattered showers
are also possible later today and again on Thursday. Memorial Day
weekend will start out cool with a few showers. Sunday into Memorial
Day will then see warming temperatures with only a few isolated
showers at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...North Central Montana remains in the cross
hairs of a strong upper level jet and surface cold front that will
bring increasingly strong winds and falling temperatures today.
Current High Wind Warning continues to look sufficient for
anticipated winds. Cooler temperatures and showery weather
conditions can be expected Thursday and Friday as well. Latest
model runs have backed off a bit on the strength of northwest
winds over the plains on Thursday so current thinking is that no
further high wind highlights will be required in the short term
period. mpj

Friday night through Wednesday...Overall a large upper level low
will influence our weather through the Holiday Weekend...with a
ridge trying to build in next week. Friday night through Saturday a
large upper low in Canada will attempt to enter the states keeping
us in an unsettled northwest flow pattern to start Memorial Day
Weekend. Limited moisture and instability will be found with this
pattern...bringing some scattered showers and a few weak
thunderstorms through Saturday. Best chance for precip is still west
and south of a line from about Cut Bank to Lewistown to Billings,
with more isolated activity east of this line. Ridge tries to build
in the region on Sunday and Memorial Day...although with the large
upper low across the Northern Plains we never fully escape the north
to northwest flow. Models now indicate enough of the ridge enters
our cwa making for a decent second half to Memorial Day weekend with
warming temperatures and only isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity. More of the ridge moves into the area for Tuesday into
Wednesday, however, it flattens quickly leaving us vulnerable to
weak disturbances riding over the top of it. The result will be
chances for scattered afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm
activity each day. Thunderstorms and this point look to be weak and
limited in coverage. Each day will be warmer than the previous in
the long term. Memorial Day high temperatures in the 70s are
expected...with this warming trend looking to continue into next
week. The large disturbance to our east may linger some breezy nw
flow on Saturday...and to a lesser extend on Sunday. Lighter winds
should then be found on Memorial Day into next week. Anglin

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0455Z.

An anomalous upper level low and associated low/mid level jet will
encroach on the area overnight with increasing winds at the SFC. The
wind will first increase along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent
plains overnight, then the wind will increase elsewhere on
Wednesday, especially in the wake of a strong, but dry, cold front
moving through. Widespread gusts of 35-55kt are likely through
Wednesday evening. As the wind shifts around to the NW Wednesday
evening, low level moisture will increase, leading to lower CIGS and
scattered SHRA, but mainly from KCTB to KHVR. Elsewhere, moisture
will gradually increase as well, but beyond the current TAF cycle.
Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  43  60  40 /  10  30  30  20
CTB  59  41  58  38 /  20  50  30  30
HLN  69  44  62  42 /   0  20  30  30
BZN  69  39  58  38 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  69  29  50  30 /  10  10  20  40
DLN  69  36  57  37 /   0  10  30  30
HVR  69  45  62  40 /  10  40  30  10
LWT  66  40  56  37 /   0  30  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight Blaine...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


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