Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 240954
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
354 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...MAINTAINING A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING THIS MORNING...BUT IR SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS. AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE MOIST AND CALM ENVIRONMENT. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
OBSERVED ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPRESSING ALL BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COMPARED TO THOSE
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. NUTTER

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0438Z.

THE AIRMASS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NEAR KGTF AND KHLN.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO, SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  44  70  48 /  20  10  10  30
CTB  67  40  70  46 /  20   0  10  30
HLN  65  45  72  50 /  20  20  20  40
BZN  59  40  67  44 /  60  30  20  30
WEY  56  33  60  37 /  30  20  40  50
DLN  61  40  68  44 /  30  20  30  50
HVR  72  43  75  47 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  61  44  67  46 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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