Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 282031
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
231 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday through Tuesday...Moist and unsettled conditions will
continue through the first part of the week as showers continue to
move into the area with the unseasonably moist flow into the
region. The source for all this instability and moisture continues
to be a slow moving closed low that is making its way across the
Great Basin. Widespread precipitation is not expected through this
timeframe as most of the rainfall should occur as scattered
showers over the next few days. Temperatures should remain
slightly below seasonal values with cloudy conditions throughout
the time period. There will be some breaks in the wet
weather..mainly on Monday as the closed low begins to move off
into the Great Plains,however various shortwaves will move across
the area throughout the period and will bring increased chances to
precipitation. The best example of this will be on Tuesday
Afternoon and Evening, when a disturbance crosses the Rockies
out of Canada and moves over the region bringing some Pacific
Moisture and a Canadian cold front quickly across the region.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period.
Cooler temperatures are a possibility for Wednesday and Thursday
with a mix of rain/snow possible over the northern plains...mainly
in the vicinity of Cut Bank...as a surface high quickly sweeps
across northern and central Montana. Snow accumulations expected to
be less than a half inch during any 12 hour period, however could
see some icy areas develop on roads and bridges as temperatures fall
to near freezing during the morning hours. For Friday through Sunday
expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild over the Northern
Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving back into the region
with afternoon highs in the 60s on Saturday and then mostly mid 60s
to around 70 Sunday. Forecast generally dry for Friday thru
Sunday...but the ECMWF model is starting to hint at a weak upper
level system moving through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few
showers over the northern tier of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
Deep moisture in SE flow aloft will continue to circulate into the
region through Sunday around low pressure at the surface and aloft
over the Great Basin. Still some isolated patchy drizzle/light
rain...mainly in vicinity of KLWT and KBZN...and expected to end by
12z Monday. Low clouds and mountain/terrain obscurations will
persist through tonight as low levels remain moist with localized
visibility restrictions in BR, mainly affecting central and SW MT
terminals. Conditions expected to show improvement after 12z Monday
morning as ceilings gradually rise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  66  49  62 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  40  66  43  60 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  43  68  46  63 /  20  20  30  30
BZN  38  64  42  61 /  60  20  40  30
WEY  30  53  31  50 /  90  40  50  40
DLN  38  63  43  59 /  60  40  40  30
HVR  43  64  44  67 /  30  30  20  20
LWT  42  64  45  63 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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