Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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182
FXUS65 KTFX 160411
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1010 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

..UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.UPDATE...

Most of tonight`s forecast remains valid. However, decided to raise
POPs to about 20-30% over portions of Southwest Montana through
midnight tonight. Here, a few more showers and thunderstorms cannot
be ruled-out this evening as a subtle disturbance advances eastward
and encounters weak instability.
Jaszka

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A west to northwest flow aloft is developing over the region. As a
result, expect several days with little to no precipitation.
Afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side...with highs
generally in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...A west to northwesterly flow aloft will
prevail over the region for the next few days. As a result, an
isolated shower/thunderstorm is possible early this evening,
mainly right near the MT/ID border. Otherwise, mostly dry
conditions are expected over the next few days. A wind shift will
occur on Thursday over North Central MT.

Friday night through Tuesday...A weak upper level ridge of high
pressure will try to build over the region. As a result, warm
temperatures are expected most days, with Sunday being the coolest
day. Another wind shift will affect the region on Saturday, with
slightly stronger winds. Overall, little to no rainfall is
expected during this period. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0410Z.

A fairly dry west-northwest flow aloft will continue VFR conditions
with mostly clear skies over the area through at least Wednesday
evening. Smoke from area wildfires will keep skies hazy, but it will
likely not reduce visibility. A disturbance in the flow may bring a
few additional weak showers and/or thunderstorms to far southwest
Montana overnight, but am not confident that any that may form would
impact terminals there (mainly KEKS). Weak instability after 18Z
will mix potentially gusty west winds to the surface and may cause
isolated showers/storms to develop in far southwest Montana once
again. However, confidence in the shower/storm potential is too low
to mention in the TAFs at this time.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  83  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  43  81  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  52  83  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  48  81  49  83 /   0   0  10   0
WEY  37  71  37  74 /  10   0  10  10
DLN  46  78  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  49  86  53  85 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  49  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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